GameFAQs Contests

Also, that's quite interesting, Luster. I believe typically we experience a dropoff of several hundred votes between those hours, so it indicates the presence of a few hundred extra (whether they be rallied or stuffed) votes at the minimum.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

This is one of the steepest drops from the board vote I can recall seeing. I don't think it's just bracket voting - I seriously think that script stuffing for pollOpt1 for the last match might be responsible. Anyone else think this?

Assuming Uncharted was only supposed to get 60% of the votes in the first 5 minutes, that's around 300 extra votes in 5 minutes. That's more than double the number of votes TF2 was getting per 5 minutes at the end. At worst, TF2 was probably getting 50 stuffed votes per 5 minutes at the end which is only a fraction of the 300 votes.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."

Man, a 7% drop from first freeze to the end of the first hour. That's somethin' else.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Leon, who do you have winning Sunlo? I have SMS winning, but I'm fully expecting it to be a nail-biter!

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SUNLO
Also known as: Halo 3/Super Mario Sunshine; or twelve hours of pure awesomeness.

Halo 3.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

If there was just a lot of traffic like rallying for a match including Fable and TF2, it seems natural that fans of either game would be more likely to support Uncharted 2 over LoD, imoimo
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

From: UltimaterializerX | #1455
That method doesn't work in a pure cheating sense and hasn't since 2003. I know what you meant, but that's an alternate form of rallying more than anything else.

Well it's just HTML and post forms, so if you have the right script and other IPs available (either proxies, tricking humans, whatever) I don't see why it wouldn't be theoretically possible from a technical viewpoint (not that I'm saying it happened for sure or anything, I was just suspicious). It should be a lot more difficult than the stone age days when there weren't any safety measures in place, but possible in the loosest sense of the word.

From: Team Rocket Elite | #1502
Assuming Uncharted was only supposed to get 60% of the votes in the first 5 minutes, that's around 300 extra votes in 5 minutes. That's more than double the number of votes TF2 was getting per 5 minutes at the end. At worst, TF2 was probably getting 50 stuffed votes per 5 minutes at the end which is only a fraction of the 300 votes.

Hmm, great breakdown. Yeah, I guess it was just bracket voting mostly then, combined with the early rush.
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Ridley vs Cloud
36.44% -> 32.34%
4.1% drop

Marth vs Sephiroth
34.97% -> 31.96%
3.01% drop

Captain Falcon vs Cloud
41.09% -> 35.75%
5.34% drop

Missingno. vs Sephiroth
55.91% -> 52.06%
3.85% drop

Uncharted 2 vs LoD
67.38% -> 60.23%
7.15% drop

L-Block vs Link vs Cloud vs Snake
54.99% -> 45.40%
9.59% drop

Uncharted 2 with joke entry trends. >_>
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."

Halo 3.

Ah, gotcha. Regardless of who wins, I just hope it's a really entertaining match - it has the potential to be a classic!

For the record, I have Halo: CE beating Sunshine in R2 before losing to Uncharted. If Uncharted continues to lose steam here, though, I might start to feel kind of nervous about it...!

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SUNLO
Also known as: Halo 3/Super Mario Sunshine; or twelve hours of pure awesomeness.

And Uncharted 2 is under 60% now.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Here's a bit of analysis following up on that. It's the same thing I did for Crono/Missingno last contest, this time comparing TF2/Fable to Rock Band 2/Deus Ex.

Hour DX/RB2 TF2/F Ratio Projected Extra Votes
1:00 5424 6602 1.217 -85
2:00 4841 5990 1.237 44
3:00 4545 5678 1.249 109
4:00 4733 5885 1.243 79
5:00 4772 5735 1.202 -162
6:00 4638 5723 1.234 23
7:00 4219 5596 1.326 539
8:00 3826 4734 1.237 35
9:00 3431 4158 1.212 -75
10:00 3266 4212 1.290 251
11:00 3114 4076 1.309 322
12:00 2673 3360 1.257 91

Estimated Extra Votes: 1171

I used 1.23 as the baseline ratio, since that seemed to be the approximate ratio for the first 6 hours of the match, before the first big spike in votals for TF2/Fable (which appears to have happened in that half hour in which TF2 surged out to a 200 vote lead). The overall average ratio was 1.251.

Of course there's some problems here that weren't in the Crono/Missingno analysis: namely that Rock Band 2/Deus Ex was also a close match. However, that match was over by the last few hours of the match, while this one wasn't. Even so, if that match was indeed receiving extra votes in the afternoon and not in the evening, it still should be the case that TF2/Fable received lots of extra votes. Probably rallied.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

lol Uncharted 2.
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

Oh yeah, the vote totals for this match have dropped off quite a bit since the board vote. A comparison of the vote totals per update for today's match and yesterday's Batman match:

12:05 AM | 1194 | 1579
12:10 AM | 885 | 885
12:15 AM | 726 | 764
12:20 AM | 714 | 726
12:25 AM | 628 | 615
12:30 AM | 588 | 611
12:35 AM | 580 | 585
12:40 AM | 521 | 587
12:45 AM | 549 | 481
12:50 AM | 479 | 545
12:55 AM | 472 | 485
1:00 AM | 438 | 481

The second update of this match got the same number of votes as the second update of the Batman match. Based on the second update of this match, it probably seems like this match would have had around 1200 votes at the freeze if there wasn't a huge rush of votes at the start due to the rallying in yesterday's match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

9:00 3431 4158 1.212 -75

Lousy Skype add-on. Apparently, this is a Spanish phone number.
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http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png
http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png

how could that possibly be a phone number!
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

Well, everything after the 9.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

And it doesn't care about punctuation, apparently.
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Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX!
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg

From: LeonhartFour | #290
Also, not sure if this was mentioned anywhere, but how many lead changes did we end up with?

By my count, 20 lead changes (see page 191 and 194 in this topic)

Also, TF2 was leading for 83% of the match, but only won 51.5% of the updates.

And.....the top two hours for projected extra votes were also TF2's best 2 hours percentagewise of the match. Fable's best hour was one of the lowest of the match for ratio.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

L-Block vs Link vs Cloud vs Snake
54.99% -> 45.40%
9.59% drop

Though that was in a 4-way match. The drop would have been bigger than that in a 2-way match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Hmm... my 55% Oracle won't end up looking too horrible by the end of this. I thought about raising it to 57%, too; curse my irrational desire to have a chuckle at Uncharted 2's expense and find a way to strategically position "lol" in its name.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

yoblolazer
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Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX!
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From: TheCodeisBosco | #1509
If Uncharted continues to lose steam here, though, I might start to feel kind of nervous about it...!

Yeah - although I'm always hesitant to judge when a match features an unknown like Dragoon, I just can't have confidence in a game that struggles to break 60% on Legend of Dragoon, which a pretty obscure game.

Right now I don't see Uncharted being strong enough to beat Halo. And if SMS can beat Halo, it should be able to beat Uncharted as well.
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How are you fitting 'lol' into Uncharted?
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From: creativename | #324
How are you fitting 'lol' into Uncharted?

That's the challenge!
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Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX!
http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9302/banner5morrigan2.jpg

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Er, sorry, made a mistake in the text. If RB2/DX was receiving extra votes in the afternoon but not the evening, and this match was not receiving extra votes, it could still form the pattern we observed (although the 6-7 hour still looks very strange). Or, if this match was receiving extra votes through the whole match and RB2/DX was only during the afternoon, we could also observe this. In that case the actual extra votes for TF2/Fable would be a lot higher than estimated.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Also, I have UC2 to the divisional finals, but I only predicted it to get 59% here.

Not too worried about it based on this match alone, especially considering its competition.
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Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX!
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lolcharted 2

simple
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v198/Burgess/1274107259105.gif

I have UC2 to the divisional finals, and I predicted 57% here.

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DFF

SA2 crushes SFIV tomorrow and then beats UC2.

you know me da fightin' freak knuckles. and we at pumpkin hill. you ready?
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

I don't know why people are fretting about UC2. The percentage is changing as the votals go up, but UC2 is still increasing its lead over LoD. It's increased its lead by over 100 votes in the last two updates.

lolcharted 2: Among lulz
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Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

So should I bank on the Halo 3 / SMS match, or is it safe enough to wait for the Demon Souls / MM9 match? I have Halo 3 winning in my bracket.

Yeah - although I'm always hesitant to judge when a match features an unknown like Dragoon, I just can't have confidence in a game that struggles to break 60% on Legend of Dragoon, which a pretty obscure game.

I mean, Dragoon did win its vote-in... but of course, its poll was probably the weakest of all this year's vote-ins. Though to be fair, it did still win in spite of sharing the poll with several other RPGs, which is pretty impressive.

Right now I don't see Uncharted being strong enough to beat Halo. And if SMS can beat Halo, it should be able to beat Uncharted as well.

I don't think SMS will be able to keep up with Halo: CE, as it's a day match; plus, I'm expecting CE to be stronger than Halo 3 anyway. But Halo/Uncharted... well, that's a whole different story! I'm really looking forward to seeing how Halo/Ninja Gaiden goes, that's for sure.

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SUNLO
Also known as: Halo 3/Super Mario Sunshine; or twelve hours of pure awesomeness.

I don't know why people are fretting about UC2. The percentage is changing as the votals go up, but UC2 is still increasing its lead over LoD. It's increased its lead by over 100 votes in the last two updates.

Well it's not going to lose this match or anything like that. However, 59.52% and falling in a worse performance than many expected from Uncharted 2. Uncharted 2 isn't expected to be that much stronger than Halo so if it's weaker than expected, it may fail to make the division finals like many have in their bracket. How bad this performance really is depends on how strong you think The Legend of Dragoon is. Personally, Uncharted 2 is still doing better than I expected.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."

Unchortled
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
http://i.neoseeker.com/n/2/nintendo_quality_seal.jpg

Also people need to stop asking for advice on when to bank.

I'm not going to tell you when I think you should bank, I want you to screw up!
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

We can start panicking* about UC2 when Star Wars: Battlefront II gets destroyed by BioShock.

*I will not be panicking, as I have Halo > UC2. >.>
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Final Fantasy XIII review: http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/ps3/review/R140434.html
You're pretty good, Dr_Football.

^No, you'll be panicking much earlier when Halo's losing to Sunshine!
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http://i974.photobucket.com/albums/ae229/yungflyerz/67106910.jpg

Probably. But man, if SMS can get through Halo 3 and Halo... Nintendo is going to destroy this contest.

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Final Fantasy XIII review: http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/ps3/review/R140434.html
You're pretty good, Dr_Football.

Isn't LoD exactly the kind of nerdy game that would benefit from the night, while Uncharted is the big casual game that would benefit more from the day vote?

This reminds me a bit of Laharl/Sora, where everybody said Laharl looked impressive, but really it was just the voting trends.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png

This reminds me a bit of Laharl/Sora, where everybody said Laharl looked impressive, but really it was just the voting trends.

This does not make me feel good about Uncharted at all.
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Time to wander around
Aimlessly

LoD looks like it's settled in at the low 40s in most places around the world, yet it's just cracked out three >47% updates in a row.

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Final Fantasy XIII review: http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/ps3/review/R140434.html
You're pretty good, Dr_Football.

...

People actually took Uncharted 2 over Halo/Halo3/Sunshine?
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom

From: TheCodeisBosco | #335
I mean, Dragoon did win its vote-in... but of course, its poll was probably the weakest of all this year's vote-ins.

Huh, I was thinking it had the best overall set.

But they were all crap, so what does it matter?
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

From: MegatokyoEd | #345
...

People actually took Uncharted 2 over Halo/Halo3/Sunshine?

Why not?

What about those games puts them out of UC2's reach?
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

*looks at the current guru*
Uncharted 2 is the favorite in that match, apparently.
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15th in Best Game Ever 2009
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif

Well it's not going to lose this match or anything like that. However, 59.52% and falling in a worse performance than many expected from Uncharted 2. Uncharted 2 isn't expected to be that much stronger than Halo so if it's weaker than expected, it may fail to make the division finals like many have in their bracket. How bad this performance really is depends on how strong you think The Legend of Dragoon is. Personally, Uncharted 2 is still doing better than I expected.

I think it's safe to say that anybody who thought UC2 would go to the division finals in the first place were OLBTWA. I think it'll go down in round 2, but there's no way in hell it's going to get past both sonic and mario.

People really need to act like making 4-ways 2-ways turns 50/50 into 66/34.

I think SFIV would beat Persona 4 today with zero trouble, that wouldn't even a match. I agree with this site isn't particularly fond of fighters, but if there's one that could be added to the exclusive list, SFIV would be the one. I'm not going to claim SFF or anything like that, but I don't think four ways, especially ones with much bigger casual draws in them, are helpful to SFIV -- and definitely not when its two months old. Fast forward a year, I think Street Fighter IV is a much bigger deal now than it was back then. That isn't to say it's hot stuff, that it's going to maul through its division or anything, but I think it will put a solid beating on SA2 tomorrow, even if there's no real evidence I can provide right now. I'm confident in that one, as much as you can be a completely unknown match, anyway.

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A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.