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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 922

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/21/2010 5:10:10 PM | message detail
I checked about a dozen matches in order to get a rough average on votal intake by continent. Here are the numbers:

I have the exact numbers based on last contest.

Night Matches:
North America - 70.56%
South America - 2.35%
Europe - 18.30%
Asia - 5.12%
Oceania - 3.53%
Africa - 0.14%

Day Matches:
North America - 81.28%
South America - 2.82%
Europe - 12.20%
Asia - 1.87%
Oceania - 1.75%
Africa - 0.08%
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MMXcalibur | Posted 10/21/2010 5:11:40 PM | message detail
This match is godawful stupid. Would one game just take the lead and run with it....

I predict whoever's trailing with an hour to go will "miraculously" rebound and win in the dying seconds.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/21/2010 5:13:23 PM | message detail
Oh bugger, I should have known they'd already exist.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/21/2010 5:14:06 PM | message detail

From: MMXcalibur | #302
I predict whoever's trailing with an hour to go will "miraculously" rebound and win in the dying seconds.


Fable's fans don't care nearly that much. Fable has to put it away before the final hour if it wants the win.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/21/2010 5:15:14 PM | message detail
Message From Ultima_X on 10/21/2010

Can you set it up so individual region vote totals are displayed when we click on them? As is we only see percentages, not vote totals. I know it'll be silly to see Wyoming with like 5 votes, but for bigger states like California this could lead to some interesting finds.
Message From GameFAQs on 10/21/2010

It's actually like that for that reason - so people in smaller regions can't tell their exact vote totals and figure out how successful their vote stuffing attempts are (which they almost always aren't).



I wasn't aware Allen hid the smaller region numbers by design. Kind of cool how he thought all that stuff through.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/21/2010 5:17:25 PM | message detail
11-vote cut. 115 barrier breached again.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/21/2010 5:17:40 PM | message detail
DAMMIT! Lead under 100! D:
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:18:13 PM | message detail
31 vote cut.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 1/2 Today's Matches: Batman: AA & TF2
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/21/2010 5:18:18 PM | message detail
Wow I'm bad at math. I subtracted the wrong way. 31-vote cut.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/21/2010 5:18:24 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | Posted: 10/21/2010 8:17:25 PM | #306
11-vote cut. 115 barrier breached again.


11? You mean 30.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/21/2010 5:34:14 PM | message detail
This match is close, but it's like the polar opposite of a truly amazing close match like Missingno/Crono. I'm with MMX on this; it somehow feels like a really bad match.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:37:31 PM | message detail
I think if we cared about either it would mean more.

Had this not been close, nobody would have cared. The nonly reason we're supposed to care is because it's so tight.
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params7 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:38:30 PM | message detail
Maybe its just that its been like this the whole day and nobody cares anymore.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/21/2010 5:38:50 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/21/2010 8:34:14 PM | #311
This match is close, but it's like the polar opposite of a truly amazing close match like Missingno/Crono. I'm with MMX on this; it somehow feels like a really bad match.


It's because there's no hype Ulti. To have a really classic match you need fanbases fighting a battle in the background exactly like the characters/games are doing in the forefront. That's just plain not possible when there isn't a fanbase to hype one entrant, as is the case of fable. The only reason we care about this is due to brackets. Stick, say...Crisis Core here (disregarding that it'd probably blast TF2), and you'd have a pretty cool match.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:39:06 PM | message detail
Also, it's draining to be this close this long. It was exciting at first, now it's a war of attrition.
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Greyfeld | Posted 10/21/2010 5:40:05 PM | message detail
I don't know, with the higher vote rates for Fable from Europe and Asia, (granted, not overwhelmingly, but they're present), we may actually see Fable creep up in the last hour or two.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/21/2010 5:44:14 PM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #315
Also, it's draining to be this close this long. It was exciting at first, now it's a war of attrition.


Seriously, I'm ready for it to be over. TF2 should win, but lets just get this done man.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/21/2010 5:46:41 PM | message detail
I am loving every update. It's like a football game between bad teams. Just because the game doesn't mean anything doesn't mean that it can't be incredible.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/21/2010 5:49:09 PM | message detail
And because I think we've stopped paying attention, Fable has brought it down to 50.88% in NA (from as high as 51.22 if I recall correctly) and has cut .75% off of the highest in Cali (it's down to 56.55%). This will be a great finish regardless of when Europe comes back into play.
FFDragon | Posted 10/21/2010 5:51:30 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | Posted: 10/21/2010 8:46:41 PM | #318
I am loving every update. It's like a football game between bad teams. Just because the game doesn't mean anything doesn't mean that it can't be incredible.


Lions/Browns last year proves this as fact.

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Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 10/21/2010 5:57:32 PM | message detail
I think the only reason this feels bad is because fable fans don't care as much. If this was tf2/Tales of Symphonia and it was this close both fanbases would be rallying like crazy and nobody would consider it bad. The fact that tf2 has deep rallying potential and is likely to pull it out in the end makes it a little less thrilling.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/21/2010 5:57:54 PM | message detail
Canada's TF2 has dropped a full % too.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/21/2010 5:58:29 PM | message detail

From: FFDragon | #320
Lions/Browns last year proves this as fact.


Browns/Bills, where the Browns won with their QB having a 0 passer rating and completing something like 2 passes for 6 yards.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:59:00 PM | message detail
Updates since TF2 peaked

7:10 TF2 leads by 210 (TF2 +33)
7:15 TF2 leads by 189 votes (Fable +21)
7:20 TF2 leads by 175 votes (Fable +14)
7:25 TF2 leads by 161 votes (Fable +14)
7:30 TF2 leads by 162 votes (TF2 +1)
7:35 TF2 leads by 163 votes (TF2 +1)
7:40 TF2 leads by 154 votes (Fable +9)
7:45 TF2 leads by 140 (Fable +14)
7:50 TF2 leads by 138 (Fable +2)
7:55 TF2 leads by 112 (Fable +26)
8:00 TF2 leads by 107 (Fable +5)
8:05 TF2 leads by 117 (TF2 +10)
8:10 TF2 leads by 121 (TF2 +4)
8:15 TF2 leads by 90 (Fable +31)
8:20 TF2 leads by 84 (Fable +6)
8:25 TF2 leads by 95 (TF2 +11)
8:30 TF2 leads by 108 (TF2 +13)
8:35 TF2 leads by 97 (Fable +11)
8:40 TF2 leads by 65 (Fable +32)
8:45 TF2 leads by 56 (Fable +9)
8:50 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +13)
8:55 TF2 leads by 37 (Fable +6)

Fable's dominating the updates since then.
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:59:08 PM | message detail
I'm also liking these updates

then again I went with Fable in my bracket >_>
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:59:59 PM | message detail
Don't go over a 400 vote lead, TF2. We need to set a record here.

Fable's cutting now, so there's still hope! This record.... you are referring to the smallest maximum lead in a match, right?

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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:00:21 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #311
This match is close, but it's like the polar opposite of a truly amazing close match like Missingno/Crono. I'm with MMX on this; it somehow feels like a really bad match.


I have to agree, mostly because it's less amazing and attention grabbing and more annoying.

Like, if your microwave exploded in your kitchen, that'd be exciting in a way. If you buy others and they just keep exploding it becomes less astounding and more of an annoyance.

Fable and TF2's back and forth isn't fun, it's just a bother. We're waiting for something important to stick and it just never happens.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2010 6:01:25 PM | message detail
This isn't a fun match because not many people here actually like Fable. If it wins people aren't going to celebrate unless they picked it in their bracket, and that's not nearly as fun.

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creativename | Posted 10/21/2010 6:01:58 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #1505
I wasn't aware Allen hid the smaller region numbers by design. Kind of cool how he thought all that stuff through.


Except that wouldn't really help a vote stuffer, because they'd stuff using proxies etc. which are from all sorts of regions. I don't know any stuffing method that would be, say, only from Wyoming or some minor region. So, no stuffer would really glean data from this. This would mostly be Allen just being needlessly uber-paranoid IMO.

From: TheOneAboveAll | #1559
And because I think we've stopped paying attention, Fable has brought it down to 50.88% in NA (from as high as 51.22 if I recall correctly) and has cut .75% off of the highest in Cali (it's down to 56.55%). This will be a great finish regardless of when Europe comes back into play.


People have always tended to overestimate the impact of regional %ages when it comes to predicting trends. They typically overlook the importance of intra-regional trends - in other words, regions are just as much affected by trends, as being the cause of trends. I had lots of discussions about this last year. There were tons of matches where people thought stuff like "Oh, such and such is winning NA, therefore it will win the ASV" and they were proven wrong. Because once the ASV came, the NA %age changed.

People tend to overweight the importance of the data they have access to, and since regional data is available, they overweight it. It can definitely be used to predict trends, I'm not saying it can't, but people truly go overboard.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2010 6:02:37 PM | message detail
Fable in teh lead
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:02:44 PM | message detail
Son of a ****ing *****.

Stop stuffing, you clowns.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/21/2010 6:02:47 PM | message detail
Fable just tied the match record for most updates won in a row and took the lead while it was at it... by 1.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:04:24 PM | message detail
what an incredible match
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Blood_of_Sokar | Posted 10/21/2010 6:04:44 PM | message detail
Wow, I had no idea there were that many 360 fanboys on this site.

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shane15 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:05:22 PM | message detail
Can't believe I'm saying this but is Fable now the fav
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Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 10/21/2010 6:05:51 PM | message detail
What? The lead is one vote!

I suspect a spy...
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/21/2010 6:06:56 PM | message detail
I agree creative, but % changes within a region can show a trend. That was my point. TF had upwards of 57% in Cali for almost the entire match and because of that had a good (relatively for this match anyway) West Coast ASV. My point in saying the Cali % is dropping was showing that after that that region is now trending towards Fable.
I also find it interesting that we have some people claiming that Fable fans don't care enough and others accusing them of stuffing.
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:07:00 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #328
This isn't a fun match because not many people here actually like Fable. If it wins people aren't going to celebrate unless they picked it in their bracket, and that's not nearly as fun.


This, too.

This board, myself included, absolutely loves TF2 and I personally think the fact that this match is so close speaks volumes about the narrow scope of games this site is willing to play. This is a game that has had a constant stream of 100% free content coming in since its release some 3 years ago and has been available for under a ****ing dollar on more than one occasion.

I can't fathom how more people either haven't played this game or how they can't like it, but will **** their pants over Halo. I don't think it's fair.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:08:10 PM | message detail
8:45 TF2 leads by 56 (Fable +9)
8:50 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +13)
8:55 TF2 leads by 37 (Fable +6)
LEAD CHANGE #15
9:00 Fable leads by 1 (Fable +38)
LEAD CHANGE #16
9:05 TF2 leads by 16 (TF2 +17)
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/21/2010 6:08:17 PM | message detail

From: Glenn_and_Toad | #336
What? The lead is one vote!

I suspect a spy...


his name is tom

my friend clearly pushed fable over by just 1
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2010 6:10:13 PM | message detail
I personally think the fact that this match is so close speaks volumes about the narrow scope of games this site is willing to play.

This is not the match that shows this at all. When we get to double Final Fantasys, double Metal Gears, double Smash Brothers, double Zelda -- then we can talk about this.

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shane15 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:10:23 PM | message detail
This match is just making random numbers up now >_>
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:11:21 PM | message detail
I was more talking about PC games. Especially since TF2's definitive version is on the PC.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:11:32 PM | message detail
Just wait until 2020. We'll get that all-Zelda final four, and an all Nintendo elite eight to boot! Kneel before your master Link ahahahahaha
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Greyfeld | Posted 10/21/2010 6:11:55 PM | message detail
I can't fathom how more people either haven't played this game or how they can't like it, but will **** their pants over Halo. I don't think it's fair.

That's not really fair. Some of us don't like FPS games at all, Halo or not.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:12:21 PM | message detail
*returns from dinner*

Damn it guys Team Fortress 2 needs to win.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 1/2 Today's Matches: Batman: AA & TF2
Mega Mana | Posted 10/21/2010 6:13:13 PM | message detail
Spy sappin my TF2!
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:13:50 PM | message detail
At least vote totals are a bit better today, this match has already surpassed yesterday in total votes.
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GotD Bracket: 1/2 Today's Matches: Batman: AA & TF2
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/21/2010 6:13:53 PM | message detail
This quote if from the Wiki writeup on the CT/LttP match. I think it fits perfectly here.
This match typifies the point I made in an earlier writeup: a match doesn’t need down-to-the-wire slugfests and tons of lead changes to be exciting. Sometimes the best matches are exemplified by stillness, the greatest tension of all. This match, more than any other, exemplifies this. These two games were literally neck-and-neck with each other for hours. Imagine a poll where the percentages, the vote disparities, the lead – none of it changes for hours on end. That’s tension: waiting for something to happen and you’re not sure if it will. Definitely an underrated gem of a match here.
creativename | Posted 10/21/2010 6:14:24 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #1657
I also find it interesting that we have some people claiming that Fable fans don't care enough and others accusing them of stuffing.


Haha yes, I noticed that too, that is pretty ironic.
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