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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 920

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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/20/2010 11:53:56 PM | message detail
Well, I think the hopes for BatmanFAQs officially go down as an epic fail.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/20/2010 11:55:30 PM | message detail
Either Psychonauts actually has strength (surely not) or the Batman hype train ends here.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2010 12:02:59 AM | message detail
This match has fallen behind Fallout 3's vote total pace, by the way.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2010 12:12:42 AM | message detail
Oh, and you can already pick Fallout 3/Deus Ex in the Battle Challenge. I'm glad that one's being updated daily.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/21/2010 12:19:00 AM | message detail
Hmm... Batman is probably around the range where it'll be considered a big favorite over TF2/Fable, but it can't beat Fallout based on this. Not good news for the few Bat-backers.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2010 12:20:46 AM | message detail
Well, that kinda depends on how tomorrow's match goes. If TF2/Fable wins in a blowout (like 60%+), then I'd start worrying about Batman.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2010 12:21:32 AM | message detail
I do think Psychonauts is being a bit underrated around here. I wouldn't expect it to be pure fodder or anything like that -- the game is obscure, but not to that extent. I wouldn't say its got the strength of, say, Okami, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if it trumped Infamous. Psychonauts got a lot of critical and fan praise when it came out, and I believe it actually sold about half a million before it went on XBLA for download. Don't think it's nearly as weak as people might be expecting.

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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/21/2010 4:39:05 AM | message detail
Psychonauts is as niche as you can get, but it's also one of those games that have been talked about for a long time after its release. A lot of people still recommend it today. I dunno, I guess Psychonauts it more like Okami like HM said and less like, say, Mother 3.
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scotted4 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:00:26 AM | message detail
I would just hate to lose those extra points I got on Deus X, if Fable upset TF2, but Im gonna go with it anyway, TF2 seems like a pretty good bet. then obviously pick uncharted 2, and bank on SA2/Street Fighter 4.

I think its weird that not many people have been looking at SA2/SF4, probably because its right next to Sunshine/Halo3, but that seems like a great matchup.
Gnik | Posted 10/21/2010 5:49:44 AM | message detail
It seems to me like you have no chance whatsoever of doing well in the battle contest if you bank early, since your points go up exponentially as long as you don't bank. Even if you got every pick you made, if you banked relatively often you'd still easily get crushed by someone who went on one long streak then banked.


Though I must admit that the Halo 3 / SMS and Mother 3 / Devil May Cry battles frighten me.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2010 5:56:35 AM | message detail
While you need a long streak to win, the winning person will probably have it going on later in the bracket since right now we don't have much information going on.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 1/2 Today's Matches: Batman: AA & TF2
Gnik | Posted 10/21/2010 6:29:05 AM | message detail
I dunno, while we may have a more accurate picture of how popular the games are, we'll also have games that are closer to each other in popularity going at it. I don't think it's going to get much easier.
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irriadin | Posted 10/21/2010 6:34:04 AM | message detail
I think you guys are overestimating Batman and underestimating Team Fortress 2. But we'll see...
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2010 6:34:17 AM | message detail
Match IV: (4) Team Fortress 2 vs. (13) Fable

Information

Name: Team Fortress 2
Year: 2007
Previous Performance: SpC2k9 – 4th in round 1

Name: Fable
Year: 2004
Previous Performance: N/A

Analysis

Now this is an interesting match, almost everyone sided with the same game yet very few people can give an explanation of why the game should win. When in doubt go with your favourite game I guess. While Fable has a chance I feel that Team Fortress 2 will be the game coming out alive in this.

Let’s backtrack to 2004, Fable an incredibly hyped game was released and suffered major backlash for not being as good as what was advertised. Fable hate was massive and it didn’t help that the game was released on the Xbox as well. Since then the hate has subsided, but was it because people got over it and moved on to hate something else or was it because the game disappeared off the face of the Earth and people just forgot about it. Based on random polls and the fact sequels have come out it does seem that Fable is still alive and kicking.

Speaking of sequels Fable III is coming out next week and with mild hype and a lot of advertisement for it over the past little while I wouldn’t be surprised if Fable looks better than usual here.

Team Fortress 2 also has its positives to work with. The main thing is Valve is pretty much trying to establish a large user base by trying to become the best company ever. One of the things it did was release Team Fortress 2 for peanuts on Stream. With a lot more people that have played the game it’s expected that Team Fortress 2 will perform a lot better than what it did in 2009.

The main reason I feel that Team Fortress 2 will take this match is actually the performance of its characters. I know characters don’t equal games, but they do follow trends. For one thing characters from ensemble casts tend to perform a lot worse than from the games they are from because the fanbase is split between which characters they like and support, take Final Fantasy VI and Tales of Symphonia as an example. The same is true for Team Fortress 2. So if Team Fortress 2’s performance in 2009 was true then Heavy and Spy should have been pretty bad fodder, but as we can see they are decent fodder.

Maybe Call of Duty 4 SFF the game, I’m not sure, but anyone trying to use Team Fortress 2’s performance in 2009 as a reason why Fable will win may want to start thinking of reasons of whether or not Fable has decent strength. Fable does have a chance, but Team Fortress 2 is the safe pick especially if Fable hate gets reignited as people remember the game.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Team Fortress 2 > Fable

charmander6000’s Prediction: Team Fortress 2 wins, 58.03% - 41.97%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 1/2 Today's Matches: Batman: AA & TF2
charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2010 7:36:45 AM | message detail
Looks like the match won't break 40k
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 1/2 Today's Matches: Batman: AA & TF2
Tsunbiribiri | Posted 10/21/2010 7:52:05 AM | message detail
Two right, one wrong. Ah well, the contest marches on
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lightsout06 | Posted 10/21/2010 7:56:07 AM | message detail
Do people really think Super Mario Sunshine will beat Halo 3? That is by far the worst Mario game. SA2 vs SFIV is the hardest match to predict in this division.
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R.I.P. Halo 2
Bigwig_rah | Posted 10/21/2010 8:00:02 AM | message detail
Do people really think Super Mario Sunshine will beat Halo 3? That is by far the worst Mario game. SA2 vs SFIV is the hardest match to predict in this division.

I've got Mario > Sonic in round 3, so a lot riding on those two matches. I think Mario has a pretty good shot at Halo since a lot of people hate Halo and will vote for anything against it, with Mario being a pretty easy choice to go to.
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See You Space Cowboy...
KingBartz | Posted 10/21/2010 8:08:47 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #854

I also did a bracket where I picked every single higher seed to win (yes, even Mother 3 > DMC3). I'll be curious to see what scores these brackets get!


Me too! I was actually surprised when I made it how few upsets it had.
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lightsout06 | Posted 10/21/2010 8:13:20 AM | message detail
I got 2 11-seeds getting past the first round. SFIV and Fire Emblem: Path
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R.I.P Halo 2
ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/21/2010 8:19:25 AM | message detail
It seems to me like you have no chance whatsoever of doing well in the battle contest if you bank early, since your points go up exponentially as long as you don't bank. Even if you got every pick you made, if you banked relatively often you'd still easily get crushed by someone who went on one long streak then banked.

There won't be anyone that goes all that long without banking and makes it.

For instance if there was a battle challenge last year, Dr Football is the one that went perfect for a really long way through the first round, and even he wouldn't have gone that whole way without banking.

The first round is where you should just be conservative and bank often, then as the contest progresses you just use your knowledge of previous rounds to build up a streak.
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KingBartz | Posted 10/21/2010 8:33:36 AM | message detail
If somebody gets a perfect in round one and never banks it, there could be a pretty good streak there. not likely, but possible.
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Dr. Football caused me to lose the game.
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 10/21/2010 8:35:34 AM | message detail
It seems to me like you have no chance whatsoever of doing well in the battle contest if you bank early, since your points go up exponentially as long as you don't bank.

Not to be captain douchebag here but your points don't go up exponentially -- they go up in a linear way, that is in a straight line. Exponentially would be something like 100, 200, 400, 800, etc.

I agree with you though, banking early is a bad strategy. In fact, I'd say the difference between the regular contest and the battle contest is pretty small (aside from the fact that you can use previous rounds to change your predictions). T
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/21/2010 8:35:59 AM | message detail
I'm not sure anything that happens in the first few rounds is going to tell us all that much about how KH1/KH2, Brawl/Melee, or MGS3/MGS4 for instance, are going to turn out. It's just too hard to compare considering the huge amount of games that we don't have a good read on.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 10/21/2010 8:37:23 AM | message detail
I've got Sunshine > Halo 3 but then losing to Halo CE.

Halo 3 will be the weakest of the three.
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KingBartz | Posted 10/21/2010 8:39:26 AM | message detail
dont they increase exponentially? it doubles every time you win, right?
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Dr. Football caused me to lose the game.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/21/2010 8:42:52 AM | message detail
Nope, it doesn't double. It goes
+100; +200; +300; +400; +500 etc.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/21/2010 8:54:25 AM | message detail
Problem is that someone may luck out and get a big streak early on and then also use the knowledge of previous rounds to get another long streak going.

Two big streaks will shut out anyone playing conservatively early on. You're gambling a bit, but the payoffs will be much bigger and you'll be much better off with a decent streak going for you. Though obviously you don't want to go on a very long streak, it's worth gambling on losing some points on some controversial matches if you're in the middle of a streak. Losing 600 or so points is insignificant compared to gaining 2100 points.

Anyway, I just chickened out and switched back to TF2. Though I may go back and forth between it and Fable for the next five minutes or so.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/21/2010 8:56:36 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7laxF8se_so

Love it.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/21/2010 8:58:12 AM | message detail
I get the feeling whoever wins is going to win this match big and then get wrecked by Batman after we try to convince ourselves the upset is going to happen.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2010 8:59:03 AM | message detail
"I've yet to see single WRPG that can outsmart bullet."

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/21/2010 8:59:16 AM | message detail
I'm already worried about TF2 winning twice, so let's hope you're right!
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Gnik | Posted 10/21/2010 8:59:38 AM | message detail
Nope, it doesn't double. It goes
+100; +200; +300; +400; +500 etc.

It's still parabolic growth, so the earlier you bank, the less points you can earn.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:00 AM | message detail
**** it, back to Fable.

Damn this match!
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Wylvane
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Team Fortress 2 100%

8
Fable 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 8

LOL Fable
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Batman > Psychonauts (1/2)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:16 AM | message detail
Team Fortress 2 100%

5
Fable 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 5

BONK
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:20 AM | message detail
LOL Fable board vote
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Oracle contest - 96th
Today's pick: TF2 - 57.57% Status:
abdou | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:20 AM | message detail
lol Fable
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:24 AM | message detail
holy balls Fable has a bad board vote
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:27 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Team Fortress 2 100%

4
Fable 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 4

Lucky #4!
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:31 AM | message detail
Well, ****.
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Wylvane
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:42 AM | message detail
WHAT SICK MAN SEND BABIES TO FIGHT!?
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 10/21/2010 9:00:47 AM | message detail
Team Fortress 2 90%

9
Fable 10%

1
TOTAL VOTES 10
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/21/2010 9:01:03 AM | message detail
Uhhh.....after that board vote, I think Fable's got this.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2010 9:01:09 AM | message detail
Fable's already got this thing under 60% now. Let's see what happens.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2010 9:01:14 AM | message detail
Fable wins.

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DFF
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/21/2010 9:01:19 AM | message detail
...Whew?
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Wylvane
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KingBartz | Posted 10/21/2010 9:01:33 AM | message detail
Team Fortress 2 60.48% 75
Fable 39.52% 49
TOTAL VOTES 124

sorry fable
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/21/2010 9:01:34 AM | message detail
Someone get Valve on the horn.

This is ****ing dumb.
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/21/2010 9:01:40 AM | message detail
Ugh, I swear if Fable wins this...
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