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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 918

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 9:46:28 PM | message detail
yo causin' us to have to break kayfabe here
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Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2010 9:46:45 PM | message detail
But seriously. If votals continue the way they are, ToS getting a night match against God of War suddenly looks a *lot* better. That early rush is gonna mean a lot.

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DFF
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/19/2010 9:46:52 PM | message detail
If I'm not mistaken, the only match last contest that had worse votals than this was GlaDOS/Fawful. This could be due to it being the start of the contest or could be a poor omen for Fallout 3 (not that it's path isn't set anyway). Or votals could be entirely irrelevant anyway.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/19/2010 9:47:23 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #397

From: PartOfYourWorld | #394
DS doesn't have the play-rate
MM9 probably doesn't either.

It just has the name.


And that might honestly be all it needs in such a weak match. Its name is so much bigger, that it alone could be the clincher. I'm absolutely certain there are games out there weak enough to lose to big-name games that don't even exist. I'd probably take Mega Man 11 over some games in this bracket.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 9:47:44 PM | message detail
That might be enough, but just don't act like it has any advantages other than that.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/19/2010 9:48:09 PM | message detail
We should wait for a few more matches to see if this really is Fallout being bad at drawing vote and not the entire contest just having poor vote totals.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/19/2010 9:48:19 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #405
That might be enough, but just don't act like it has any advantages other than that.


Yeah? Well what are you gonna do about if it I do?!
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ZFS | Posted 10/19/2010 9:48:21 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 over Melee let's hope

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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/19/2010 9:48:34 PM | message detail
And that might honestly be all it needs in such a weak match. Its name is so much bigger, that it alone could be the clincher. I'm absolutely certain there are games out there weak enough to lose to big-name games that don't even exist. I'd probably take Mega Man 11 over some games in this bracket.

I've never played either, but I'm voting MM9 just because I remember enjoying some of the old mega man x games. Thats gives me more reason to vote MM9 than some game I've never played and have zero attachment to. I'm betting on most people being like that
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 9:48:39 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #407
Yeah? Well what are you gonna do about if it I do?!


Laugh.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2010 9:49:00 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #406
We should wait for a few more matches to see if this really is Fallout being bad at drawing vote and not the entire contest just having poor vote totals.


Yeah. Just saying, if votals continue like this, then rev up the Symphonia train.

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DFF
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/19/2010 9:49:02 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 over Melee let's hope

That would be the single best contest result ever, sadly its not happening
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/19/2010 9:49:05 PM | message detail
And that might honestly be all it needs in such a weak match. Its name is so much bigger, that it alone could be the clincher. I'm absolutely certain there are games out there weak enough to lose to big-name games that don't even exist. I'd probably take Mega Man 11 over some games in this bracket.

I wonder how well FF7-2 would do. <_<
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/19/2010 9:49:28 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | Posted: 10/20/2010 12:48:34 AM | #409
I'm betting on most people being like that


Didn't work for the last contest. X was a whole new tier above the original.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/19/2010 9:49:51 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #406
We should wait for a few more matches to see if this really is Fallout being bad at drawing vote and not the entire contest just having poor vote totals.


It looks like votals are gonna stink until Sunlo. Yes, I'm giving the Sunshine/Halo match a name. It's that big.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/19/2010 9:50:04 PM | message detail
Last contest being game, that is.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/19/2010 9:50:06 PM | message detail
Didn't work for the last contest. X was a whole new tier above the original.

Well I didn't mean X specifically, I mean like people who played any old Mega Man games and liked them.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/19/2010 9:50:13 PM | message detail
I don't think the votals are worth worrying about. It's an SFF beatdown between two Western games, and it's a night match to boot... gotta keep expectations low for something like this, y'know?

This really is kind of a weird choice for an opening match. Should have been Melee/GHII or FFX/Joe, if you ask me!

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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/19/2010 9:51:02 PM | message detail
It's an SFF beatdown between two Western games

Maybe SFF. We don't know enough about how strong the two games should be.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2010 9:51:17 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 had awful votals last contest too. Its match had the lowest votals of the first round, probably of the entire contest- I remember because Albion kept protesting against my votal-stats because Fallout 3 looked so bad in them.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/19/2010 9:51:44 PM | message detail
I don't think the votals are worth worrying about. It's an SFF beatdown between two Western games, and it's a night match to boot... gotta keep expectations low for something like this, y'know?

How is it SFF at all, outside of them both being Western games? Should we claim that Final Fantasy SFFs something like Resident Evil now?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/19/2010 9:51:54 PM | message detail
Guys, what do you think the result of the SMS/Halo match would be if the matchup was put on the front page as

"Super Mario vs. Halo"

70-30 in favor of Mario imo
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/19/2010 9:52:34 PM | message detail
^I mean the Sunlo match, obviously.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/19/2010 9:52:47 PM | message detail
Where is Albion?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/19/2010 9:52:54 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | Posted: 10/20/2010 12:50:06 AM | #417
Well I didn't mean X specifically, I mean like people who played any old Mega Man games and liked them.


I know what you meant. I'm just saying the huge gap between X and the original Mega Man is so large that I really doubt that's a mindset people have that's popular. You would think they'd at least be in the same tier.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2010 9:53:01 PM | message detail

From: NoDicePwn | #421
I don't think the votals are worth worrying about. It's an SFF beatdown between two Western games, and it's a night match to boot... gotta keep expectations low for something like this, y'know?

How is it SFF at all, outside of them both being Western games? Should we claim that Final Fantasy SFFs something like Resident Evil now?


Hasn't FF had overlap with both RE and MGS in the past?

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DFF
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/19/2010 9:53:02 PM | message detail
Sunlo

Aww yeah! :D I like it!

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Watch Fox's RUNNING WILDE, airing Tuesdays at 9:30 EST!
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2010 9:53:29 PM | message detail
So yeah, the low votals here are not alarming, either for the contest or for FO3's strength. For some reason or other, it just sucks at drawing in the votes.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 9:53:33 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #426
Hasn't FF had overlap with both RE and MGS in the past?


It's never been anything conclusive, but the possibility is there.
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ZFS | Posted 10/19/2010 9:53:52 PM | message detail
Japanese SFF.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 9:54:33 PM | message detail
So you know what game looks really bad here?

RE5.

Based on the vote-ins, Fallout 3 is projected to break 70% on it!
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2010 9:55:18 PM | message detail
How many people would dare to take Fallout 3 over Resident Evil 4 after seeing this?
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/19/2010 9:56:16 PM | message detail
How many people would dare to take Fallout 3 over Resident Evil 4 after seeing this?

I would have even before this match cuz I predicted 80% for Fallout 3 here, but I'm probably biased towards Fallout 3 since its my favorite game this gen.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/19/2010 9:57:07 PM | message detail
If the votals stay this low for Fallout in the second round then I would say for sure not. I would have considered it until 55 minutes ago.
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/19/2010 9:57:10 PM | message detail
How many people would dare to take Fallout 3 over Resident Evil 4 after seeing this?

I think I would still stick with RE4.
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/19/2010 9:57:24 PM | message detail
So you know what game looks really bad here?

RE5.


One of the last decisions I made before bracket lockdown was switching to ToS > RE5.

Looks like I dodged a bullet...!

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Watch Fox's RUNNING WILDE, airing Tuesdays at 9:30 EST!
Will Arnett and Keri Russell in the same show - how can you top that?!?
red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2010 9:58:45 PM | message detail
You know, we could have a bigger blowout than Link/Thrall here. Haha, people have caught on- Link always wins. Next contest the anti-voting will probably hit him even harder.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/19/2010 10:00:36 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #437
You know, we could have a bigger blowout than Link/Thrall here. Haha, people have caught on- Link always wins. Next contest the anti-voting will probably hit him even harder.


lol don't get your hopes up
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 10:01:31 PM | message detail
well red sox you've convinced me

Snake > Link here we come
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/19/2010 10:02:44 PM | message detail
It's been six updates since inFamous got over 20% in an update. This is gonna get ugly!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 10:03:21 PM | message detail
Man, less than 7500 votes at the end of the first hour. Yikes.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/19/2010 10:04:13 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #437
You know, we could have a bigger blowout than Link/Thrall here. Haha, people have caught on- Link always wins. Next contest the anti-voting will probably hit him even harder.


Yeah, I was thinking about that. Not only did he flub it against Thrall and Luigi, but it looked like he really underperformed against Cloud in the finals. Cloud was struggling with Samus and Snake. Link without anti-voting should have broken 55% with ease. I don't think the anti-voting will ever be big enough to give Cloud the win, but who knows.

MAYBE BATMAN
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Hochimihnister | Posted 10/19/2010 10:04:14 PM | message detail
You know, we could have a bigger blowout than Link/Thrall here. Haha, people have caught on- Link always wins. Next contest the anti-voting will probably hit him even harder.

With all the anti-voting Link will endure next contest, he might not even beat struggle if I may be so candid
red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2010 10:04:29 PM | message detail
well red sox you've convinced me

Snake > Link here we come


Never. We will never surrender to the likes of Snake. Indeed, for the sheer insolence in the first 6 hours of the 2008 finals, the wrath of Link lies upon the house of Snake from the West to the East. None but a Square character shall defeat Link.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/19/2010 10:05:45 PM | message detail
*Square announces a NEW character for Dissidia 012*

"SHOWTIME!"

Kojima pays attention to these contests, guys. I guarantee you.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2010 10:07:26 PM | message detail
I once traced MM9 to DS through Braid, Lost Odyssey, and inFamous...and from the two results I got, MM9 either barely won with ~52% or lost with ~42%...but that's too long of an ugly stretch to make. Tranny then went much simpler:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3724
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3723
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3726

I think we can agree MM9's the biggest downloadable hit here, but how much bigger do you want to make it than Shadow Complex? Can it nearly quadruple it? FF4:TAY only got to use so much name-power there, too -- how much stronger is MM9 than that?

Along with that, we've seen MM2/3/X in BGE2. MMX was the only respectable one, MM2 flopped, and MM3 flopped after first getting hit in the throat and kicked in the balls. Here's all we got on MM9:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3357
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3363

Braid's going to be a bottom-ten level game here (unfairly!), and this poll was before Braid got its PS3 and PC-releases. World of Goo sucked in the vote-ins. SF2 sucked in BGE2, ports rarely do well, and MM9 didn't exactly blow away Super Street Fighter II Turbo HD Remix. Getting last in the overall-GotY doesn't help matters either, though 2008 was a great year for games.


I rreeaallllyy want MM9 to win, but we haven't seen anything from downloadable games, Mega Man, or MM9 that it can do much. DS is vulnerable, but MM9 is probably moreso despite the bigger name.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2010 10:07:29 PM | message detail
Link without anti-voting should have broken 55% with ease. I don't think the anti-voting will ever be big enough to give Cloud the win, but who knows.

Well, Cloud still was anti-voted harder in that match, as he still did his characteristic rising from the first hour. But Link's first minute was truly terrible the entire contest, including that match. Cloud was over 45% inside the first minute IIRC- in any other year, that equals outright victory.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/19/2010 10:07:36 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #445
*Square announces a NEW character for Dissidia 012*


IT'S LINK!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/19/2010 10:08:32 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #448
IT'S LINK!


*kills self*
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/19/2010 10:09:00 PM | message detail
lol imagine if the FFVII remake finally hits and Link is made a major character

oh man why am I chuckling, is this my life
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