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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 917

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:18:33 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #393
Majora's Mask can still beat GSC. The more I look at that Round 2 match from 2009, the weirder it looks. If GSC is really strong enough to keep the RBY beatdown at a super respectable 55/45, then why didn't it outright beat MGS in the first round? It was the only Nintendo game, it stood out like crazy, and MGS was dealing with another PS1 game.


I fear this. I really do. Twilight Princess is far and away the strongest Zelda game in this bracket, yet it toils around as a 4 seed so Allen can set up Majora's Mask vs Wind Waker in the Team Zelda division. Something is seriously off with GSC, and Majora's Mask getting a 1 can't have been an accident.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:19:23 PM | message detail

From: AppreciateTrees | #400
Back on point. If (big if) the lol x-stats machine is legit, it has GSC getting something like 47% on FFX. A remake + Pokemon's clutch can't make up 3% in a 24 hour match? Especially late in a contest when all the "FINAL FANTASY ALWAYS WINS IMMA BE COOL AND VOTE THE OTHER THING" always kicks in?

Using x-stats, that's brilliant.


Very interesting post, Hippo.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/18/2010 10:20:25 PM | message detail
BTW has anyone contacted creativename to know if the updater will be working tomorrow?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/18/2010 10:21:55 PM | message detail
cn's already posted in this very topic, dude.

LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2009 9:18:46 PM | message detail
Game of the Decade Contest next year. I'm in.


Speaking of prophets...

*pats self on the back*

Reading old stats topics is fun.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:22:39 PM | message detail
hahaaaaaaaaa nice
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/18/2010 10:22:56 PM | message detail
Sorry, I was too into playing New Vegas that I haven't bothered checking the topic in the last hour or so.
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Greyfeld | Posted 10/18/2010 10:23:26 PM | message detail
Considering the numbers put up by MGS on GSC just last year, I took MGS4 to beat out Crystal in the quarterfinals. I know it's not the same game, but MGS4 went up against FFX in the semifinals and only lost by 2% with no other SFF to be seen. Considering MGS and FF would be battling it out for SFF, both being playstation titles, MGS4 should actually be a little stronger against a Nintendo title like GSC.

Just my thoughts anyway.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/18/2010 10:23:58 PM | message detail
Why do we think that MGS is stronger than FFX (and by we I mean red sox)?
AppreciateTrees | Posted 10/18/2010 10:24:08 PM | message detail
Very interesting post, Hippo.

It must have been, if the B8 god himself acknowledges it and responds to it.

Nothing is off about G/S/C. It's the second most popular generation in the series. Now there is no R/B/Y to overshadow it or for fans to rally behind this time. G/S/C is next in line.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2010 10:24:14 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #393
Majora's Mask can still beat GSC. The more I look at that Round 2 match from 2009, the weirder it looks. If GSC is really strong enough to keep the RBY beatdown at a super respectable 55/45, then why didn't it outright beat MGS in the first round? It was the only Nintendo game, it stood out like crazy, and MGS was dealing with another PS1 game.


This makes absolutely no sense. I have never before seen someone get worried over something's strength because it didn't get SFFd.

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DFF
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:25:31 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #407
Considering the numbers put up by MGS on GSC just last year, I took MGS4 to beat out Crystal in the quarterfinals. I know it's not the same game, but MGS4 went up against FFX in the semifinals and only lost by 2% with no other SFF to be seen. Considering MGS and FF would be battling it out for SFF, both being playstation titles, MGS4 should actually be a little stronger against a Nintendo title like GSC.

Just my thoughts anyway.


transience posted something along these lines and he's absolutely right. I get the feeling GSC would smoke MGS3, but MGS4 I can easily see beating Pokemon for some reason. I can't explain it, but something doesn't feel like about that game in this contest.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/18/2010 10:29:00 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #410
This makes absolutely no sense. I have never before seen someone get worried over something's strength because it didn't get SFFd.


Those R1 and R2 performances don't really add up to me. If it can get 45% on RBY, and if that was a legit result, then it should have at least challenged MGS in R1 as the only Nintendo game.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:29:19 PM | message detail
Why do we think that MGS is stronger than FFX (and by we I mean red sox)?

MGS put up slightly a slightly higher percentage than FFX (35.11% vs. 34.59%) against OOT. MGS had RBY and FFVIII in the poll, while FFX had Brawl and MGS4 in the poll, which seems roughly even to me as far as LFF goes.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2010 10:29:50 PM | message detail
RBY vs. MGS: 51.94%
RBY vs. G/S: 58.2%
MGS vs. G/S: 53.33%

This looks like it lines up pretty well. What exactly are people getting worried over?

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/18/2010 10:29:57 PM | message detail
That just means FFVIII was LFFing MGS1 more than OoT was LFFing RBY and MGS1 is actually stronger than RBY!

Or something.

I'll believe it because it makes FFVIII look better.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/18/2010 10:30:03 PM | message detail
Picking GSC > FFX is amazingly risky, because nobody's sure whether or not it will even beat MGS3/4 or Majora's Mask.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:30:57 PM | message detail
The problem with MGS4 > GSC is that it's a day match. Pokemon will pick up like 2% on MGS from that.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/18/2010 10:31:09 PM | message detail
I mean picking Snake > Cloud two contests ago was incredibly risky too but Snake was at least confirmed a path to have a chance to beat Cloud.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2010 10:31:24 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #412
Those R1 and R2 performances don't really add up to me. If it can get 45% on RBY, and if that was a legit result, then it should have at least challenged MGS in R1 as the only Nintendo game.


I don't trust the stand-out factor with Games. People vote very differently for Games than characters; we're not going to vote for a game because it just looks interesting.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/18/2010 10:31:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, if MGS4 vs. G/S/C was anything other than a weekday day match (even a weekend day match), I'd jump all over it.

C'mon Christmas Break trends
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/18/2010 10:32:21 PM | message detail
Is Majora's Mask a day match for GSC?
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2010 10:32:45 PM | message detail
GS got 41.88% on RBY, not 45%. Significant difference.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:32:49 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #412
Those R1 and R2 performances don't really add up to me. If it can get 45% on RBY, and if that was a legit result, then it should have at least challenged MGS in R1 as the only Nintendo game.


I don't think you get how strong the original Metal Gear Solid is. That game is by FAR the strongest and most popular MGS, and that series has some other monsters in it that could wreck a lot of games 1v1. I mean I see what you're saying here, but it banks on MGS being some slouch game when it's not.

And with that said, it's scary how good RBY is in these things. I would pick it to beat FF7 tomorrow if I could.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:33:49 PM | message detail
Picking GSC > FFX is amazingly risky, because nobody's sure whether or not it will even beat MGS3/4 or Majora's Mask.

If GSC is strong enough to beat FFX, it'll beat those games anyway. And if it's not, your bracket is cooked no matter whether GSC beats them or not, so it doesn't really matter.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/18/2010 10:34:10 PM | message detail
I feel like MGS4/FFX (or MGS3 I guess) could be an absolutely epic 24-hour match. If we assume some overlap between MGS4 and Brawl because of Snake, then MGS4 and FFX xould be pretty even and they trend almost identically. We could basically have a match deadlocked for 24 hours straight.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2010 10:34:12 PM | message detail
I mean, we saw RBY beast it up.

Then we saw GSC beast it up.

Then we saw GSC not get beasted by RBY.

Then GSC got a remake, which was highly publicized, loved, and sold very well. On the day it was released, Charizard tore Bowser a new shellhole.

How this translates to "GSC worries me, I don't trust it" is something I cannot comprehend.

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DFF
ESY16 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:35:14 PM | message detail

From: Justin_Crossing | #416
Picking GSC > FFX is amazingly risky, because nobody's sure whether or not it will even beat MGS3/4 or Majora's Mask.


You know, I've tried to convince myself to use this theory to pick FFX > Brawl/Melee. I'm fairly confident FFX makes the finals but obviously the Brawl/Melee match-up is tough. I haven't yet convinced myself to do it though because I think Melee and Brawl would both beat FFX (although I could change my mind) and I'd rather go for broke.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2010 10:35:30 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #423
I don't think you get how strong the original Metal Gear Solid is. That game is by FAR the strongest and most popular MGS


Then why aren't you taking GSC> FFX? Because MGS4 got pretty dang close to FFX.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/18/2010 10:36:38 PM | message detail
I just realized, how will the battle challenge work for the finals? Will that be an automatic bank? Because you can't pick it until you know who's in it and we won't know that until it starts.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/18/2010 10:37:00 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #426
Then GSC got a remake, which was highly publicized, loved, and sold very well. On the day it was released, Charizard tore Bowser a new shellhole.


Yeah, but we don't know how close that match is without HG/SS.

I mean, I don't doubt it helped since I'm not believing Bowser = Kratos > Sora, but still.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:37:04 PM | message detail
And with that said, it's scary how good RBY is in these things. I would pick it to beat FF7 tomorrow if I could.

RBY is strong but not that strong. The game still lost to MGS and FFX when the Triple LFF became too crippling. FF7 would beat up games of that caliber even with CT and FFX in the same poll, or FFX and FFVI, whatever you like.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:37:06 PM | message detail
Because my testicles aren't biog enough, H.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/18/2010 10:37:31 PM | message detail
Picking GSC > FFX is amazingly risky, because nobody's sure whether or not it will even beat MGS3/4 or Majora's Mask.

If you picked GSC over FFX, GSC vs MM and GSC vs MGS3/4 don't matter. If GSC is stronger than FFX, it'll beat all three games. If GSC is weaker than FFX, your bracket is dead so it doesn't matter if GSC beats MM or MGS3/4.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:37:37 PM | message detail
Apparently "biog" is a real word.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/18/2010 10:38:24 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #429
I just realized, how will the battle challenge work for the finals? Will that be an automatic bank? Because you can't pick it until you know who's in it and we won't know that until it starts.


I'm guessing the finals slot will be open after the first semifinal match (or even after the end of the quarters) and you pick "Semifinal 1 winner vs. Semifinal 2 winner" or something like that.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/18/2010 10:38:58 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #423
I don't think you get how strong the original Metal Gear Solid is. That game is by FAR the strongest and most popular MGS, and that series has some other monsters in it that could wreck a lot of games 1v1.


Then why didn't it wreck that R2 poll a lot more than it did? Two Pokemons, a Zelda, and MGS. It had MAJOR stand-out factor; enough to make a run at the high-30s. In that poll, it finished with 60% on Majora's Mask, and that was despite MM dealing with two other Nintendo games. What does the beastly MGS get on Majora's Mask in a 1v1? Mid-50s? Less? How low is low enough to give MM a shot at Pokemon?
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2010 10:40:21 PM | message detail
Really, I've been wanting to take GSC > FFX to the championship match all bracket-period, but I can't just because FFX is going to be the last non-Nintendo game. With that in mind and in that battle of RPGs, it just feels a little too much like WDF in the likely-stronger game's favor. It's hard to bet against that...but if the bracket had changed as little as switching FFX/GSC's and FO3/SSB's halves of the brackets, I'd probably take GSC for the upset.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2010 10:40:35 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #430
Yeah, but we don't know how close that match is without HG/SS.

I mean, I don't doubt it helped since I'm not believing Bowser = Kratos > Sora, but still.


Yeah, Charizard could have still won that without HGSS, but it wouldn't have been 55%. The point is that GSC, for all intents and purpose, looked to be clearly stronger than MM last year. I'm talking a 60-40 easy win. And since then, it has definite reason to get stronger. So...what was it that Ulti said?

From: UltimaterializerX | #267
Also I love the last-day panic that grips the board, where you guys start second-guessing easy matches. Always entertaining.


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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2010 10:41:48 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #436
Then why didn't it wreck that R2 poll a lot more than it did? Two Pokemons, a Zelda, and MGS. It had MAJOR stand-out factor; enough to make a run at the high-30s. In that poll, it finished with 60% on Majora's Mask, and that was despite MM dealing with two other Nintendo games. What does the beastly MGS get on Majora's Mask in a 1v1? Mid-50s? Less? How low is low enough to give MM a shot at Pokemon?


How about almost the same result? Pokemon doesn't overlap much with anything. It still almost beat FFX with Melee and Ocarina of Freaking TIme in the poll.

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DFF
red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:42:14 PM | message detail
In that poll, it finished with 60% on Majora's Mask, and that was despite MM dealing with two other Nintendo games. What does the beastly MGS get on Majora's Mask in a 1v1? Mid-50s? Less? How low is low enough to give MM a shot at Pokemon?

That's an interesting point, and suggests MM is pretty strong. You could argue that RBY SFF'd it in round 1 and maybe round 2.......but major RBY/MM overlap implies major RBY/OOT overlap which implies RBY is way above MGS which implies GSC is really strong which......

I don't know.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 10:43:02 PM | message detail
Hey I'm not panicking. I seriously do think GSC can win that match, and this is no misinformation or BS at all. I'm very surprised Board 8 (or at least, the BOP) thinks GSC makes it to the semifinal and then has no shot at all against FFX in a 24 hour match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/18/2010 10:43:17 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #439
How about almost the same result?


NO NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31g0YE61PLQ

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2010 10:44:07 PM | message detail
Yo, would you please show the last time Pokemon has been shown to have any sort of significant LFF or SFF with anything?

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/18/2010 10:44:44 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31g0YE61PLQ
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/18/2010 10:44:48 PM | message detail
Why are we all still assuming MM>WW? I've always felt that WW came third on the Zelda pecking order after OOT and TP.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:44:50 PM | message detail
I'd give it like a 40% chance of happening in Odds to Win. It's harder for me to see GSC beat Melee though- I don't see the Pokemon fanbase as the Nintendo core fanbase, and the Nintendo core fanbase is still larger than the Pokemon fanbase.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2010 10:45:09 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #436
Then why didn't it wreck that R2 poll a lot more than it did? Two Pokemons, a Zelda, and MGS. It had MAJOR stand-out factor; enough to make a run at the high-30s. In that poll, it finished with 60% on Majora's Mask, and that was despite MM dealing with two other Nintendo games. What does the beastly MGS get on Majora's Mask in a 1v1? Mid-50s? Less? How low is low enough to give MM a shot at Pokemon?


To be fair, at the time, MGS's performance was enough to shut everyone up about RBY. It had a fantastic R1, but then we all kind of decided that RBY wasn't that impressive by the way MGS beat it...despite GS and LoZ:MM, I know, but that shut most of us up, so I consider that impressive for MGS in that regard.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:46:53 PM | message detail
It's sort of paradoxical:

The less you think OOT and RBY overlap, the better MGS looks. But the better MGS looks, the better GSC, and in turn RBY, look. And the better RBY looks, the more overlap there seems to be between it and OOT.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/18/2010 10:50:47 PM | message detail
http://www.vgchartz.com/game.php?id=34267

I think the GSC boost might be sorta large >_________>

I mean I know I shouldn't take sales really seriously but uhhhhhhhhhhh
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/18/2010 10:53:03 PM | message detail
Also to direct everybody towards extremely odd MGS vs. Nintendo matches

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3268

We all know how Big Boss hype turned out after that (I still don't think the match pic would have been THAT boosting)
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