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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 917

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 4:21:14 PM | message detail
Melee > Brawl


Battle lines, gentlemen.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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"I'll attract the enemy with my *human* call.... I'M SO WASTED, I'M SO WASTED!!"
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pjbasis | Posted 10/17/2010 4:25:18 PM | message detail
FIRST POST

BRAWL > MELLE
Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 10/17/2010 4:27:49 PM | message detail
Tag so that I don't forget later.

FFX > Fallout 3 in the final, confirmed.
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James - Board 8's Resident Warm And Safe, Slipper-Wearing User
& The Cream of Porcupine Tree Fanboyism
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 4:28:38 PM | message detail
Better than a fighting game because it has Nintendo characters to reach the finals...
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
SuperWhiscash | Posted 10/17/2010 4:30:34 PM | message detail
any of you stats people watching RE4 vs MM in this poll? its entertaining me.
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Maple Leafs: 4-0-0 / Jays: 85-77 / TFC: ...sigh / Argos: 7-7 / Raptors
SS - 3052 0230 3247 | Platinum (legalhacks) - 0775 7164 7136
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 9:15:46 PM | message detail
Yes that was intentional.
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"If only there were some way I could have sex..." -SmartMuffin
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/17/2010 9:15:49 PM | message detail
Let it be known that there will be absolutely no seeding upsets in this contest!

Does this mean 1/3 of the site has every high seed winning the first round?
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Wylvane
CommodoreTN is a horrible user.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/17/2010 9:17:12 PM | message detail
Why is 16 > 1 doing so well anyway?

Joke voters probably.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Pondos | Posted 10/17/2010 9:18:56 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #008
Why is 16 > 1 doing so well anyway?


Wii Sports > Majora's Mask

Obviously
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
http://i30.tinypic.com/2pos8ir.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 10/17/2010 9:19:36 PM | message detail
Bound to be joke-voters, yeah. That's the biggest kind of upset.
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Nominate EPONA from LoZ:OoT, LoZ:MM, and LoZ:TP!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/17/2010 9:24:10 PM | message detail
I think Wii Sports > Majora's Mask would literally be the worst result in GameFAQs history. Yes, even worse than the SMB/LoZ/SMB3/SMW match...!

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Watch Fox's RUNNING WILDE, airing Tuesdays at 9:30 EST!
Will Arnett and Keri Russell in the same show - how can you top that?!?
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/17/2010 9:29:03 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #011
I think Wii Sports > Majora's Mask would literally be the worst result in GameFAQs history. Yes, even worse than the SMB/LoZ/SMB3/SMW match...!


Pfft, the latter would've been the best match ever if the result was SMB3 > SMW instead.
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Wylvane
NaturalChemical is a horrible user.
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/17/2010 9:32:35 PM | message detail
More like SMB > SMB3!

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Watch Fox's RUNNING WILDE, airing Tuesdays at 9:30 EST!
Will Arnett and Keri Russell in the same show - how can you top that?!?
AppreciateTrees | Posted 10/17/2010 9:33:30 PM | message detail
Let it be known that there will be absolutely no seeding upsets in this contest!

Does this mean 1/3 of the site has every high seed winning the first round?


Apparently like a little less than 2/3 of the site didn't even make a bracket anyways..
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"Of course I'm going to rig the contest in my favor." - SBAllen
pjbasis | Posted 10/17/2010 9:34:38 PM | message detail
Mega Man 9 > Demon's Souls is definitely being referenced here
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/17/2010 10:07:11 PM | message detail
Wow, only 3918 votes at the end of the first hour. That's bad. This poll will likely not finish above 45000 votes here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
abdou | Posted 10/17/2010 10:09:28 PM | message detail
well this poll is pretty lame
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...
Pondos | Posted 10/17/2010 10:09:44 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #015
Mega Man 9 > Demon's Souls is definitely being referenced here


More like MKWii > PW
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
http://i34.tinypic.com/345dlxd.png
Dr_Football | Posted 10/17/2010 10:19:17 PM | message detail
Preview of stats topic during No Mercy match

http://www.gifflix.com/files/199f6d79121b.gif
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http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png
http://img.imgcake.com/drfootballpngru.png
The Real Truth | Posted 10/17/2010 10:22:04 PM | message detail
Biggest possible seed upset from a quick look at the bracket is 11 > 6 which is FF12/CC.
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/17/2010 11:14:38 PM | message detail
I switched to Sonic Adventure 2 > Street Fighter IV, because on the Official Nintendo Magazine Readers' Choice Top 50 Nintendo System Games of the Decade list, SA2B was ahead of Melee. If SA2 > SSBM at one site, SA2 > SFIV at another site makes too much sense.

(we'll ignore how that list had Galaxy as #1, Brawl as #2, Melee at #15, and Tales of Symphonia barely missing the top 30)

Annoying logic, but hey, whatever. Same logic could be used for GoW > ToS but GoW doesn't have the seeding advantage this time around.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 11:17:27 PM | message detail
Shut up.
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MUSIC CAN BE OBJECTIVELY DEFINED AND ITS QUALITY EMPIRICALLY MEASURED BY THE INEQUALITY [WHAT I LIKE > WHAT YOU LIKE]. -Jaraqua Lefty Jones
The Real Truth | Posted 10/17/2010 11:29:50 PM | message detail
lol

hey it's almost contest season
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
SubDeity | Posted 10/17/2010 11:42:36 PM | message detail
I have Dead Rising beating The World Ends With You as my biggest upset. I know that TWEWY has some big fans, but Dead Rising just seems like a way bigger franchise which could benefit in a way similar to the Mega Man v. Demon's Souls match.
SubDeity | Posted 10/17/2010 11:46:13 PM | message detail
Also, has there been much discussion on Warcraft 3 v. Morrowind? I have Morrowind currently due to the immense popularity of Oblivion and Fallout 3, but on the other hand Warcraft is perhaps the most famous PC RTS besides Starcraft.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/17/2010 11:48:15 PM | message detail
I actually had to look at my bracket. My highest seed upset is (12) Megaman > (5) Demon's Soul.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
Blairville | Posted 10/17/2010 11:51:18 PM | message detail
RE5 > ToS, bet on it! Actually don't, but I'm picking it anyway!

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www.thespeedgamers.com
Castlevania marathon this Halloween, be there!
Pondos | Posted 10/18/2010 12:23:23 AM | message detail
God of War will win the Northeast division.

Bank on it!
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Mega is all like 'pew pew mother****ers' and X us all like 'pew pew but only if I have to' -ChidoriNoJutsu
http://i30.tinypic.com/2pos8ir.jpg
pjbasis | Posted 10/18/2010 12:52:27 AM | message detail
Mario Kart Wii is gonna beat Pheonix Wright?

I didn't know that!
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/18/2010 1:02:40 AM | message detail

From: Ultimaphazon | #026
I actually had to look at my bracket. My highest seed upset is (12) Megaman > (5) Demon's Soul.


exact same
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~Acting on Impulse~
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/18/2010 1:08:06 AM | message detail
I do not see TWEWY beating Dead Rising, especially with DR2 out.

Kinda sad too, I actually kinda like TWEWY from what ive played of it and hate Moronic people AI:The Game.
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My God, did that predict good!
Dr_Football-l-l it no goin' and you tell me do things, I done runnin'...
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/18/2010 1:08:35 AM | message detail
Also, has there been much discussion on Warcraft 3 v. Morrowind? I have Morrowind currently due to the immense popularity of Oblivion and Fallout 3, but on the other hand Warcraft is perhaps the most famous PC RTS besides Starcraft.

I also have Morrowind, just because Warcraft 3 is going to be a lot weaker than World of Warcraft. Morrowind did pretty well here despite coming in third place:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3466

Morrowind would have had no chance against the two heavyweights in FFX and MGS2, but Morrowind did well enough that we had high hopes that Oblivion would do well in this contest. And well, it just so turns out that Oblivion did well in the last games contest by making it to round 3. Even when Oblivion was eliminated in round 3, it managed to put up a good performance by finishing slightly below MGS3.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
Intanos VI | Posted 10/18/2010 1:32:15 AM | message detail
I currently have Warcraft picked over Morrowind due to WoW players franchise-voting and Warcraft being a decent strength on it's own before WoW was even released. Sucks, 'cause Morrowind is one of my favourite games of all-time.

WWF No Mercy vs Fire Emblem is the hardest match-up of the first round.
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Did you know that? No? Neither did i.
voltch | Posted 10/18/2010 1:54:31 AM | message detail
disgaea vs valkyria chronicles is harder than that.
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Uguu~
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 2:31:08 AM | message detail
Joke votes I think in the poll.Most people don't think that there will not be an upset?Really?In EVERY contest we have upsets!Man people these days..
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
ctesjbuvf | Posted 10/18/2010 3:32:29 AM | message detail
RE5>ToS
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Let me present a great man. The one and only of his kind. Ladies and Gentlemen, it's an honor to give you... CTES... umm... well... oh whatever.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/18/2010 5:46:51 AM | message detail
BOP has been updated, some interesting matches...

Round 1

Sonic Adventure 2 – 24
Street Fighter IV - 10

Super Mario Sunshine - 20
Halo 3 – 14

Mega Man 9 – 23
Demon’s Souls - 11

Tales of Symphonia – 29
Resident Evil 5 - 5

Warcraft III – 23
The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind - 11

Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance – 22
WWF No Mercy - 12

Disgaea – 28
Valkyria Chronicles - 6

Pokemon RSE - 22
Grand Theft Auto IV – 12

Borderlands – 24
Tales of Vesperia - 10

Civilization IV – 19
Persona 3 - 15

Dead Rising - 23
The World Ends With You – 11

Final Fantasy XII – 27
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII - 7

Skies of Arcadia – 26
Baldur’s Gate II - 8

Chrono Cross – 25
Dragon Quest VIII - 9

Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door – 26
Gears of War - 8

Round 2

Uncharted 2 – 24
Sonic Adventure 2 – 5
Street Fighter IV - 4
Legend of Dragoon - 1

Halo: Combat Evolved – 17
Super Mario Sunshine – 13
Halo 3 - 3
Ninja Gaiden - 1

God of War – 27
Tales of Symphonia - 7

GTA: San Andreas – 26
Golden Sun - 8

Persona 4 - 15
Dead Rising - 12
The World Ends With You – 7

Portal – 21
Final Fantasy XII – 10
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII - 3

Round 3

Uncharted 2 - 16
Halo: Combat Evolved – 9
Super Mario Sunshine - 5
Street Fighter IV – 1
Halo 3 -1
Legend of Dragoon – 1
Sonic Adventure 2 - 1

Kingdom Hearts – 19
Kingdom Hearts II - 13
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - 2

Portal – 18
Final Fantasy XII – 10
Mass Effect - 4
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII - 2

Pokemon GSC – 26
LoZ: Majora’s Mask - 8

Round 4

Half-Life 2 – 20
Metroid Prime – 11
Devil May Cry 3 – 2
Tales of Symphonia - 1

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 22
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 12

Metal Gear Solid 4 – 26
Metal Gear Solid 3 – 6
World of Warcraft - 2

Pokemon GSC – 25
LoZ: The Wind Waker – 6
LoZ: Majora’s Mask - 3

Round 5

Fallout 3 – 26
Half-Life 2 – 4
Metroid Prime - 3
Batman: Arkham Asylum – 1

Pokemon GSC – 17
Metal Gear Solid 4 – 13
Metal Gear Solid 3 – 2
World of Warcraft – 1
LoZ: The Wind Waker - 1

Round 6

Final Fantasy X – 26
Pokemon GSC – 5
Resident Evil 4 – 2
Mass Effect - 1

Round 7

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 16
Super Smash Bros. Melee – 7
Final Fantasy X - 7
Pokemon GSC – 2
LoZ: Twilight Princess – 1
Half-Life 2 - 1

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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
transience | Posted 10/18/2010 5:52:43 AM | message detail
wait, MGS4 > MGS3 is 26-6? I thought MGS3 was the favourite here. whoa.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2010 5:58:31 AM | message detail

From: transience | #038
wait, MGS4 > MGS3 is 26-6? I thought MGS3 was the favourite here. whoa.


Me too. At least I don't feel so lonely on that pick now...!
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Epona: your #1 trusty steed.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/18/2010 6:09:43 AM | message detail
Goin' with GTA3 winning the Northeast Division. One less bracket to worry about? We'll see.

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GT: TriggerTRE PSN ID: SolidTRE
I use my mind, not a pick-up line.
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/18/2010 7:25:53 AM | message detail
I like how the most sensible option is third to last.

Honestly, the only 1 seed who could conceivably lose is Fallout 3, and the odds of that happening are slim at best.
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/18/2010 9:45:28 AM | message detail
2 MORE DAYS
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~ Ange
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2010 9:46:48 AM | message detail
Yeah, 2 more days until Ulti is on the contest podcast!

A far more momentous occasion than Fallout 3 getting 80% (or more) on inFamous, to be fair.
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"If a bunch of foxes invade your house you wouldn't say your house has a disease. You would just kill them all with chemicals." -WackJackman, on crabs
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/18/2010 9:47:27 AM | message detail
also 2 more days until "If It Were up To Board 8" starts again

hopefully people vote in that consistently
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~ Ange
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/18/2010 9:48:07 AM | message detail
And the official start of the on-season and lower average intelligence of the board for two months.
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!
transience | Posted 10/18/2010 9:48:36 AM | message detail
I think this'll be another case where the Guru and the BOP are just worlds different. I really have no idea how the big intra-series matches are going to go, but I'd bet on MGS4 being a slight fave (nothing near 26-6), Brawl being a 2:1 fave and KH/KH2 being equal. for the finals, I'd guess FFX > Brawl > Melee > Pokemon. I hope Fallout 3 isn't a massive favourite for the semis as it is in the BOP though. can't really blame them if they put any stock whatsoever into that poll yesterday though. oh well, all the better when it ends up losing!
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xyzzy
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/18/2010 9:49:04 AM | message detail
'lower intelligence' users are hilarious though
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~ Ange
red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2010 9:55:29 AM | message detail
Don't see the BOP and Guru being too different. The BOP is essentially a subset of the Guru these days, and historically they are very similar. I'm a bit surprised to see Brawl leading Melee and FFX 16-7-7, and it'll probably be closer in the Guru, but Brawl probably still winds up the favorite.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
transience | Posted 10/18/2010 10:01:23 AM | message detail
BOP people are usually a lot more 'serious'. you see a lot more stats-influenced picks there. I'd expect to see more picks of Pokemon or MGS or other weird unconventional winners in the Guru.

but you're right, Brawl is probably the fave. being in here you sometimes forget that Brawl is the favourite over Melee.
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xyzzy
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/18/2010 10:54:44 AM | message detail
I still stand by Platinum > Brawl, by the way.
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!