GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 916
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:12:54 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #299 People look up contest matches on the Wiki, of course. There's hardly anything else there worth looking up unless you're obsessed with users. --- Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX! http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9342/banner3seifer.jpg |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/17/2010 12:13:39 PM | message detail |
WHERE THE **** IS THE GURU --- Around here, I'm the father, the son, and the Holy ****ing Spirit all rolled into one - Red Crow |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 12:14:26 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #301 Tell that to the people who do statistics for User of the Year and run a weekly podcast on the latest Board 8 social news. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´ XFD rofl bad u mad? QQ moar |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 12:14:56 PM | message detail |
For
the record, I like this topic the most and I'm not insulting everyone.
But when you guys collectively work together to all have the same
bracket across all of Board 8 (and I know it's unintended), those
guru-burners happen. I'm pretty sure I've lost more points chasing upset specials than anything else, but then I usually don't listen to this topic or others either. Unless I have no idea about the situation myself, anyway. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 12:15:23 PM | message detail |
Just had a funny thought: GTA3 could potentially win the Northeast division <_< The Northeast is so bad. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone has one and no one thinks theirs stink." -Lunar 2 |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2010 12:15:38 PM | message detail |
The only contest where I listened to no one was the last Games Contest. It was the only contest I won money in. So I can kind of see where Ulti is coming from. --- DFF |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2010 12:16:08 PM | message detail |
NE has Half-Life 2. That's enough. --- DFF |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:17:21 PM | message detail |
Of course, refusing to listen to people because you're stubborn can cost you, too. I rarely change my bracket after my initial runthrough. I've probably changed my bracket more times in this contest more than every other contest combined. --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/17/2010 12:17:25 PM | message detail |
I think the Guru will be up tomorrow --- ~ Ange |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 12:18:08 PM | message detail |
Looking at the Northeast, only 5 matches in 15 are stone cold locks: Prime > SO3 DMC3 > Mother 3 Okami > No More Heroes HL2 > L4D2 Prime > DMC3 Any result in any other match is possible, except match Prime's round 3 match. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4099/4914979539_7515897526_b.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2010 12:19:10 PM | message detail |
I could see DMC3 beating Prime. --- DFF |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 12:20:40 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #308 I'm not stubborn, I just dislike when I ask about a tossup like Wind Waker vs Oblivion and people say something about do I think Wind Waker is worth 46% on MGS3. I don't give a crap what WW is worth on MGS3, I care what it's worth on Oblivion. Or my big pet peeve, which is people dismissing entire genres and saying something dumb like "LOL ACTION GAMES ON GAMEFAQS GOD OF WAR HAS NO CHANCE". --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· http://www.last.fm/user/Ultimaterializr |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:21:32 PM | message detail |
Action games on GameFAQs are bad. God of War just got lucky to be in a bad division. --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
voltch | Posted 10/17/2010 12:21:42 PM | message detail |
I am really hoping that DMC3 is the Zack/Vincent of the contest. --- Uguu~ |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 12:22:13 PM | message detail |
Oh no doubt, that whole division sucks and I want DMC3 to win it. I mean it won't, but hey. --- ·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`· A wise man gets more use from his enemies than a fool from his friends. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2010 12:22:45 PM | message detail |
Just going by the vote-ins, if DMC3 is decently stronger than DMC, it's possible. Metroid Prime vs. AC is debatable. --- DFF |
voltch | Posted 10/17/2010 12:23:22 PM | message detail |
No Mercy to be the topic of the contest, 500 posts of wrestling quotes. --- Uguu~ |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:23:43 PM | message detail |
Eh, Metroid Prime already beat Animal Crossing in a GOTY poll years ago! what? --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
voltch | Posted 10/17/2010 12:24:42 PM | message detail |
oh and just wondering. what do people think is stronger, Assassin's creed 1 or 2? --- Nipaa~ |
KrahenProphet | Posted 10/17/2010 12:25:04 PM | message detail |
I'd love to see Metroid Prime lose in round 3, and it wouldn't surprise me. --- Dr_Football punted me out of the Guru throne. 4th place in Summer Contest 2k4 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:25:16 PM | message detail |
AC2, I'd imagine. The reception to AC2 seemed to be that it fixed a lot of the stuff that was wrong with the first. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2010 12:25:49 PM | message detail |
AC2 sold as much as AC1 and got around 5 times the amount of love. AC2 made the contest on its own, AC needed the vote-ins. --- DFF |
LOLContests | Posted 10/17/2010 12:25:59 PM | message detail |
Summer 2003: Link vs Cloud. Summer 2004: Sora vs Ryu Hayabusa and maybe Mario vs Crono.... Summer 2004 was a bad contest. Spring 2005: All of Diablo's matches. Summer 2005: Mario winning the contest over Samus and Crono, Magus vs Knuckles. Spring 2006: Zelda vs Final Fantasy. Summer 2006: Sonic vs Crono, a ton of Snake's matches, Samus vs Tifa. Fall 2007: L-Block. Fall 2008: Another handful of Snake matches. Fall 2009: Too many to count, though it's not really the fault of stats. Winter 2010: Snake vs Sephiroth, Missingno vs Crono, and the entire Heart division. Hardly any of these matches involve looking past the numbers, except like Mario Vs. Samus, and the people who think Samus Vs. Tifa was legit. Snake too, I guess. It's not so much that people have to look past stats and numbers, but know how to manipulate them and see the errors in them. -Link Vs. Cloud had absolutely nothing to do with numbers. -Crono was the favorite to beat Mario both in and of the stats topics. -Sora Vs. Ryu H. was because Aeris doubled him, not because of where that put him in the stats. -Diablo's run had nothing to do with numbers. -Zelda Vs. Final Fantasy had nothing to do with numbers. -L-Block had nothing to do with numbers. -Sonic Vs. Crono was always expected to be close. -Missingno/Charizard had nothing to do with stats. And Kingdom Hearts did drop off. It was pretty consistent across all the characters. -If you used numbers Snake would have been the favorite to beat Sephiroth. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest! |
voltch | Posted 10/17/2010 12:26:23 PM | message detail |
I was thinking that too, but for so many franchises the number 1 game is usually the one that came first. --- Nipaa~ |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 12:26:44 PM | message detail |
The
Guru Cookie is usually a pretty solid bracket, and the Oracle Consensus
is really good. I think the days of people making cookie-cutter
brackets are over though- 128 entrant contests killed them. People are
rarely eliminated in round 1 of a Guru contest anymore, even with lots
of mistakes. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2010 12:26:48 PM | message detail |
And honestly, AC2 has a better chance at upsetting WW than Oblivion does. Surprised no one's jumped on that. --- DFF |
voltch | Posted 10/17/2010 12:28:57 PM | message detail |
Yeah, but honestly betting against nintendo with a western game??? --- Hau hauu, omochi kaeri! |
LOLContests | Posted 10/17/2010 12:30:04 PM | message detail |
Plus, Ulti, weren't you the one mocking everyone for picking The Boss to beat Nathan Drake based on numbers? --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest! |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 12:35:04 PM | message detail |
It's
not like we actually use tons of esoteric math. Our stats are direct
consequences of the simple idea that stronger games consistently win by
more against the same opponent as weaker games, in a linear way.
X-stats help way more often than they hurt. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/17/2010 12:37:06 PM | message detail |
Eh,
I don't find anything wrong with contest discussion. I've actually done
worse when I tried to separate myself from contest discussion too much.
Just ask Tequila Gundam. You just have to find that balance. Some people can make logical arguments that really can't just easily be dismissed. While group think can be bad, solo thinking can be just as bad if not worse. --- *is Dranze* Dr. Football swept me. |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 12:40:04 PM | message detail |
I
mean, groupthink and overreliance on stats may have been a problem in
2005, but hasn't been for years. And can you blame people for
groupthink and close adherence to the x-stats in 2005, after how well
the cookie did in Summer 2004? --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:41:25 PM | message detail |
Well,
the stats were very reliable in 2003 and 2004. It's no surprise we
started to rely on them so much. It hasn't really been a huge problem
since then, I agree. But everyone uses stats and prior results when picking matches. At least you do if you want to win. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 12:49:02 PM | message detail |
From: LOLContests | #323 Yesmar post. --- There are two types of people: Those who love Portal, and those who haven't played it yet. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 12:53:52 PM | message detail |
Someone
mentioned Half-Life 2 and God of War. I know the stats say it's close,
but I trust the game that did well in later rounds over a game that did
well in round one and lost. Plus, Leon does have a point when he says action games do bad here. --- "I wrote a sixteen page essay about why DAO is bad, but I had nowhere to post it so it's sitting on my desktop." -Anagram |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:54:18 PM | message detail |
Except
he's right on some points. There were no numbers for anything in
Diablo's division except Kefka, who was a pathetic pile of crap in
those days. Sonic/Crono was 52/48 in the 2005 stats, hardly
insurmountable. L-Block indeed had nothing to do with stats. Nothing
could've predicted what would happen that year. Samus/Tifa had nothing
to do with stats because stats can't predict match pics, unless you
really think Tifa gets 49.5% again. The only thing about Snake 2008
that ran contrary to the stats was the final, and he had a pretty clear
bandwagon at that point, something else stats can't foresee (and no one
else can either, which is why I never predict matches based on "Well,
this one could get a bandwagon"). Crono/Missingno had nothing to do
with stats either. Snake/Sephiroth was a viable upset pick based on stats (and MGS4/Brawl). --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 12:57:13 PM | message detail |
I
think Sephiroth was the favorite based on stats from 2008. He lost
mainly because FFVII fell off a cliff between 2008 and 2010. There actually was a stats argument for Missingno > Crono, if you were really really into numbers and took 12-way vote-ins seriously. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 12:58:22 PM | message detail |
Well,
Sephiroth would've been a statistical favorite overall based on stats,
but Snake wasn't a "Oh forget the stats I'm picking Snake" pick. At least it wasn't for me (although I did end up changing that one later on, darn it) --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 10/17/2010 1:05:24 PM | message detail |
X-stats
and the board does help more often than not, but people seem to only
remember the matches it got wrong. It's like the weather man, if you
actually wrote down their prediction they are right upwards to 90% of
the time, but everyone seems to think that they're wrong a lot of the
time. Of course you can't win with a cookie bracket and it truly takes the best to know what's going on in the site and to make the changes accordingly and rely on some luck. --- BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390 BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls |
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 1:11:13 PM | message detail |
Fallout 3 is beating Melee...Now that is awesome! --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
SonicRaptor | Posted 10/17/2010 1:13:33 PM | message detail |
I was thinking that too, but for so many franchises the number 1 game is usually the one that came first. Yeah, AC1 got a lot of criticism for repetition and I remember EGM and Yahtzee (I know, I know about the latter) really raked it over the coals while everyone was giving it 9/10's. It wasn't until months afterwards did you see people come back and say "yeah, it wasn't that good and I think I'll play something else". Not since Doom 3 have I seen a reception like that that large. AC2 fixed a lot by giving the player more to do, making exploration actually fun, throwing some sly humor into it and most importantly making a protagonist that was a HELL of a lot more entertaining than Altair. --- Don't tell me what I can't do! - John Locke |
Haguile | Posted 10/17/2010 1:16:47 PM | message detail |
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #339 ...I know that taking Batman>Fallout is a terrible idea, but this makes it even worse. AW SCREW IT TRUE MEN BET ON BATMAN. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 1:20:35 PM | message detail |
Say
what you will about Yahtzee, but he is the gaming version of Jon
Stewart. Comedian or not, tons of people go to him for news. --- http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflarchive.php?year=2009&team=IND&gameid=54609 |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/17/2010 1:21:41 PM | message detail |
Wow, Fallout 3 has more confidence in it to win than Melee. Too bad it doesn't really have any upsets on its path. ...Unless it beats Melee. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/17/2010 1:22:20 PM | message detail |
Or Brawl, of course Whichever it is --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2010 1:48:34 PM | message detail |
I
don't get why people think this poll is good for FFX. I know this isn't
a favorites poll, but Team PS2 is getting wrecked by Team Nintendo
here. If anything this poll bodes really well for Smash. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/7789/thatssointerestinganagr.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 2:02:24 PM | message detail |
I don't get why people think this poll is good for anyone. There's a reason why the results are different from this one: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3728 --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/17/2010 2:04:14 PM | message detail |
And honestly, AC2 has a better chance at upsetting WW than Oblivion does. Surprised no one's jumped on that. What makes you think AC2 would be stronger than Oblivion? AC2 barely beat Dragon Age last goty polls, and I'd take Oblivion to easily 60-40 Dragon Age. Dragon Age is probably the weakest Bioware game in this contest thats not Baldurs Gate. --- http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/17/2010 2:04:37 PM | message detail |
Well
FFX is winning.So when people see this they think that well this will
win.Also SE has only 1 game,while Nintendo has 5.And that poll by
Leonheart is awesome.Go FFX!But of course people will say FF ALWAYS
WIN!and thus it shall lose... --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2010 2:05:22 PM | message detail |
Although if you think Melee struggles with Majora's Mask and can't even double Galaxy, then that bodes well for Brawl! Also, I really hope people don't think this means Majora's Mask beats RE4 either! --- Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX! http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9302/banner5morrigan2.jpg |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/17/2010 2:07:36 PM | message detail |
From: Team Rocket Elite | #284 Well he was saying that in response to the current poll, implying that Melee looks like a lock to beat FFX. You'd think by proxy that anything that beats Melee would beat FFX harder. --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
