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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 915

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/15/2010 12:07:56 AM | message detail
I think in the age polls (you must have trends for them!), the ages for HS and younger exploded in the ASV, while the other ones decreased.

I have trends for the age polls. Here are the poll updates for the last age poll (3/29/2010):

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tqnPxCu67QHCWWRq7ZUrUVQ

You can also find the trend charts on a separate sheet.

As far as the trends go, 18-20 was best with the board vote/Power Hour and worst in the ASV. 18-20 had the classic L-Block trends by dropping in percentage for the entire poll. That's the prime age for most college students, although there are some above 20 though. 21-25 was basically all night vote. Once morning came, 21-25 dropped in percentage for the rest of the poll.

26-30, 31-35, 36-40, and Over 40 were better with the morning vote than the night vote. Makes sense too, because those age groups tend to consist mainly of working class people.

13-17 had a slightly below average board vote and Power Hour and did worst with the night vote. It did better with the morning vote at least, before falling off a little bit with the late morning and early day time hours (before the ASV started). Then 13-17 explodes with the ASV.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/15/2010 4:48:07 AM | message detail
I was seriously thinking of picking LBP > GTAIII. Should I try? I probably will just because of how few I expect to pick the upset.
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Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/15/2010 5:16:16 AM | message detail
I put about as much stock in GTA as I do Halo - seems like it just flops constantly despite being a real force in terms of overall popularity on other sites/sales/etc.

Is this a bad thing or were the GTA games beasts while the series and characters weren't?
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/15/2010 6:36:39 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #402
I was seriously thinking of picking LBP > GTAIII. Should I try? I probably will just because of how few I expect to pick the upset.


There's a reason why few are picking that upset.

Knock yourself out since it's only one point, but I don't think LBP will have much of a chance against GTA3. It is possible, at least.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/15/2010 6:38:11 AM | message detail
For the record, my Odds to Win thing gave LBP only a ~25% chance to beat GTA3.

Not a strong likelihood, but there's worse upsets to take!
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/15/2010 8:57:01 AM | message detail
It is interesting to compare the responses in the "Odds to Win" topic as opposed to the Board Odds project. True, the sample sizes are small, so there's room for plenty of error.

For instance:
Team Fortress 2 in the "Odds to Win" topic - average is 67% over Fable. Only 1 out of 24 BOP players has TF2.
Sonic Adventure 2 > SFIV is favored by the BOP 18-6, but OTW suggests just a 55% chance of victory.
Tales of Symphonia is also an overwhelming favorite despite OTW suggesting RE5 has a pretty good chance.
RSE is a solid favorite over GTAIV in the BOP, but GTAIV is a slight favorite in OTW.... yeeeeeaaaahhhhhh....

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/15/2010 8:57:46 AM | message detail
Excuse me. Only 1 out of 24 BOP players has Fable > TF2.

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voltch | Posted 10/15/2010 10:25:48 AM | message detail
lol, GTA:SA having black people on the cover is gonna work against it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/15/2010 11:02:00 AM | message detail
Honestly, it probably will.

Also does anyone know if TF2 will have 4chan support in a close match or so?
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LOLContests | Posted 10/15/2010 11:11:48 AM | message detail
13-17 doing bad with the Board Vote doesn't make much sense, since IIRC "I am in high school" did really well with the board vote (or at least the first five minutes) when there was a poll about education. Maybe the latter was on the weekend or summer though.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/15/2010 11:28:11 AM | message detail
13-17 doing bad with the Board Vote doesn't make much sense

It didn't do that bad with the Board Vote. I don't know how to explain the weird spike that 13-17 got on the second update of the poll. 13-17 finished with a final percentage of 19.11%. 13-17's percentage at the Board Vote and at the end of the Power Hour was slightly below what it had at the end of the poll. But 13-17 finishing with 18.29% at the end of the Power Hour should be about expected, as it got 18.60% during the last hour of the poll.

since IIRC "I am in high school" did really well with the board vote (or at least the first five minutes) when there was a poll about education. Maybe the latter was on the weekend or summer though.

That poll was definitely during the school year and on a weekday as well. I don't have a trend chart for that poll because it happened to fall on a day in which my ability to track poll updates was disrupted by the fact I had to deal with a power outage during part of the DSV and the early part of the ASV.
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whatisurnameplz | Posted 10/15/2010 1:47:03 PM | message detail
I haven't posted much in here before, but I had this idea about this one match...

On any normal day, Bioshock would beat Star Wars Battlefront II easily. However, I think that Battlefront II might have a chance if certain circumstances are met.

As many of you know, The Force Unleashed II is coming out in 11 days. There have been rumours that Lucasarts might announce Battlefront III on the back of the TFU2 manual. Keep in mind that many other Lucasarts games, such as Empire at War, have been announced this way.

This will help Battlefront II a lot because many people, such as myself, have been anxiously waiting for a Battlefront sequel for almost three years, ever since free radical showed that in house trailer of their version of the game. And it isn't like this is only a few people. For example, in 2007 and 2009 Star Wars Battlefront II was the second most played game on the original Xbox (behind Halo 2, of course).

What might help BFII even more is that many people think that a sequel won't be made. If they find out, the sheer shock value will increase the hype factor by even more.

I even decided to pick BFII in my bracket and bank that match in my battle bracket. Now granted, I know that this will most likely not happen, but if it works I can gain an edge over the competition.

And I'm not picking BFII to beat Kingdom Hearts, since that won't happen.
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 1:49:00 PM | message detail
yeah, I can't see something that lost to Legend of Dragoon ever having a shot at Bioshock.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/15/2010 1:54:11 PM | message detail
Hey, do you guys know if the Spread Betting contest is getting run this year? I think kaonishi ran it last time.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/15/2010 2:00:46 PM | message detail
But what if Legend of Dragoon could beat BioShock?

Halo 3 vs. Legend of Dragoon go go go
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whatisurnameplz | Posted 10/15/2010 2:23:54 PM | message detail
Legend of Dragoon will most likely lose to Uncharted 2, and Battlefront II will most likely lose to Bioshock, even if it has a chance of winning.

But I think that if BFII and Uncharted 2 went against each other and bf2 had the hype train behind it, then it could beat Uncharted 2 pretty easily. Also, if Battlefront II were in Uncharted 2's seeding and had a hype train then it might be able to put up a good fight against Halo, who was stronger than Bioshock last contest.

This match isn't as big of a blowout as many people here think.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/15/2010 2:25:43 PM | message detail
Battlefront II will do fine because BioShock's not THAT strong, but I don't think it'll win.
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whatisurnameplz | Posted 10/15/2010 2:29:05 PM | message detail
Battlefront II will do fine because BioShock's not THAT strong, but I don't think it'll win.

Battlefront II will most likely not win, but I just decided to take a chance with my bracket and battle contests since I highly doubt I'm going to do well by simply sticking to the most common picks. More often than not, most people win by luck.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 2:47:15 PM | message detail
You know what game is getting really underestimated? No More Heroes.

It'll be weak yeah, but people act like Okami will stomp it.

Actually let me rephrase that.

You know what game is getting really overestimated? Okami.

Seriously they were about as acclaimed, NMH sold better outside of Japan, and they should be about the same.

I'm picking Okami, I just wanted to rant.
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 2:49:06 PM | message detail
Okami like doubles NMH's sales.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 2:51:04 PM | message detail
I'm gonna need some exact numbers there
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 3:00:19 PM | message detail
OK, I looked it up

As of 2008 Okami had sold 280, 000 copies in North America and Europe. No More Heroes has sold about 450, 000 copies in those areas.

You were saying?
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 3:07:43 PM | message detail
you have interesting numbers. here's wikipedia:

By February 15, 2008, No More Heroes had sold 40,000 copies in Japan. The game saw shipments of 200,000 units in North America with about 100,000 of those units sold within the first five weeks.[56] By January 2009, the game had sold 208,000 copies in USA.

Ōkami sold 200,000 copies in North America in 2006, grossing approximately USD$8 million and ranking as the 100th best selling game of the year in the region.[125] By March 2007, the total sales of the PlayStation 2 version were near 270,000.[56]

On 30 July 2008, Capcom revealed that the Wii version of Ōkami had sold approximately 280,000 copies in North America and Europe since its release date.[131] The Wii version debuted in Japan with a modest 24,000 copies sold in its first week in the region.[132] Total sales for the game remained under 600,000 total units by March 2009, and was named the "least commercially successful winner of a game of the year award" in the 2010 version of the Guinness World Records Gamer's Edition.[133]


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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 3:12:41 PM | message detail
You ignored the part on Wikipedia about NMH's strong European sales.

But even if you do combine the two versions of the game, there's no huge difference.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/15/2010 3:13:31 PM | message detail
It doesn't take much to beat No More Heroes. At least Okami made the previous contest and Ama has the far more popular character by miles. It is also spread across systems. A Cult Wii game doesn't sound attractive here on GameFAQs if you ask me.
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 3:14:19 PM | message detail
you mean this part?

No More Heroes was expected to sell 160,000 copies in Europe.

I'd love to take it as fact but yeah, there's no real number there. not that it matters, Okami has shown to be much bigger than NMH here. Travis would never touch Amaterasu and Okami's been a bigger game for the site overall. should be like a 59/41 kinda match.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 3:14:44 PM | message detail
But an even more cult PS2 game with an even more cult Wii game, that makes all the difference.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 3:15:28 PM | message detail

From: transients | #426
you mean this part?

No More Heroes was expected to sell 160,000 copies in Europe.

I'd love to take it as fact but yeah, there's no real number there. not that it matters, Okami has shown to be much bigger than NMH here. Travis would never touch Amaterasu and Okami's been a bigger game for the site overall. should be like a 59/41 kinda match.


They later said it met their expectations.
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 3:15:59 PM | message detail
you know, in 2006/2007 NMH might have had a shot here, but with how allergic everyone is to the Wii now? not expecting this game to do well.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/15/2010 3:16:02 PM | message detail
Man, why are we arguing about No More Heroes and European sales anyway?
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 3:17:21 PM | message detail
I think he's from Europe. :)
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 3:20:05 PM | message detail

From: transients | #429
you know, in 2006/2007 NMH might have had a shot here, but with how allergic everyone is to the Wii now? not expecting this game to do well.




wut


Also without the Wii, Okami would be even more cult than NMH. Of course, I don't think dislike for the Wii extends to its games. I mean, Brawl is THE Wii game, and that's one of the front runners to win the whole thing. Hell if anything NMH might benefit from that-it could be seen as a bastion of the hardcore on the Wii. Of course this is all just speculation either way.

I think Okami will win because it was slightly better received, but... 53-47% tops.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/15/2010 3:20:23 PM | message detail
Europe doesn't matter that much on GameFAQs.
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voltch | Posted 10/15/2010 3:20:57 PM | message detail
.....Europe only accounts for like 18k votes, we're not exactly a gamechanger.
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 3:21:41 PM | message detail
I'm just saying that the Wii mattered until Brawl came out and now it sucks. everything else has been dragged down hard ever since then.

I'm pretty sure that 2006 Twilight Princess would have crushed 2008 Brawl. 2006 TP would have murdered this contest.
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xyzzy
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 3:22:03 PM | message detail

From: transients | #431
I think he's from Europe. :)


yar

We do make a difference sometimes. Isn't that right Sora?
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neonreaper | Posted 10/15/2010 3:22:35 PM | message detail
Seriously they were about as acclaimed

Nah dude, Okami was like a GOTY type of game, NMH really a few tiers below that.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/15/2010 3:23:03 PM | message detail
But an even more cult PS2 game with an even more cult Wii game, that makes all the difference.

Sure does considering Wii reception these days.
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voltch | Posted 10/15/2010 3:24:14 PM | message detail
NMH...boy did people forget about it fast once the inital gore rush was over.
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 3:25:15 PM | message detail
yeah, people used to talk about that game a lot. now I forget it even exists. a sequel came out this year, didn't it? nobody's talked about that either.
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voltch | Posted 10/15/2010 3:25:21 PM | message detail
besides, i'm still stuck on Golden Sun, someone tell me gamefaqs ain't racist and will bother to vote for san andreas!
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/15/2010 3:25:36 PM | message detail

From: neonreaper | #437
Seriously they were about as acclaimed

Nah dude, Okami was like a GOTY type of game, NMH really a few tiers below that.


NMH won the Wii GotY from quite a few places. Admittedly much of that was Brawl backlash, but the same could be argued for Okami. Okami did get reviewed a fair bit better, but my point was more that they're beloved cult games.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/15/2010 3:26:40 PM | message detail

From: transients | #440
yeah, people used to talk about that game a lot. now I forget it even exists. a sequel came out this year, didn't it? nobody's talked about that either.


Yeah, the sequel sold terribly.

Which probably says a lot about how people felt about the first game.
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transients | Posted 10/15/2010 3:26:58 PM | message detail
I can't believe people are taking yoblazer's racist rant seriously. nobody said a word when it won 2004 GOTY.
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ZFS | Posted 10/15/2010 3:27:00 PM | message detail
Okami has significantly more critical and fan acclaim. NMH is a niche sort of thing, Okami is far more widespread -- it hits a much wider audience all around.

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voltch | Posted 10/15/2010 3:27:04 PM | message detail
Okami's stock seems to be on the rise....the NMH franchise...not so much.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/15/2010 3:27:48 PM | message detail
I listened to that entire podcast and I have no clue what racist rant you people are talking about.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/15/2010 3:28:05 PM | message detail
besides, i'm still stuck on Golden Sun, someone tell me gamefaqs ain't racist and will bother to vote for san andreas!

Well you could go the KP route and say that GS is as strong as ToS and be done with it.
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ZFS | Posted 10/15/2010 3:28:23 PM | message detail
Or another way to put it, NMH is the sort of thing that Wii folks will champion; Okami is something everyone else will stand behind.

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voltch | Posted 10/15/2010 3:28:44 PM | message detail
Tranny putting some sense back in the voltch'd......though that E3 poll is the only thing stopping me from being confident from backing GTA!
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