GameFAQs Contests

Snake didn't have anything to do with the 2nd place finish in 2007!
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http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png

Although this brings up an interesting point: if Crono were in Brawl, which game would I like more?

........I think I'd still have to go with Melee, unless Brawl propelled Crono to a contest championships or something.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

What does early 2000s Pokemon mean?

People thinking it was cool to hate something despite liking it.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

From: LeonhartFour | #347
Where fans prefer the older game in the series despite the newer game being technically better!

Pokemon is different in the fact that a lot of the casual players stopped caring once the roster ballooned to 500 Pokemon. Plus nostalgia for the simpler games. Brawl is essentially the exact same formula, but with shinier graphics, better balance and a handful of new characters.

If I had to wager, the best aspect of Pokemon in a lot of peoples' minds was the "collect them all" aspect, which I know was the only reason I played through R/B/Y when it came out. Doubling the amount of Pokemon just made getting all of them tedious, if not impossible.
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Hey gang, be sure to give Episode 3 of The Show a listen tonight! This one features yo and I discussing the most debated matches of the first two rounds, with special guest ExTha.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56757958

Was quite a fun time!

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You should search B8 for Dr Football, cool dude and 2010 Guru champion!
thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

FFX is probably going to have the lead at some point in the final. I expect Melee to swing at least 2% with the ASV (even with only 120k votes, that's 3000+ votes, if Melee is coming back from 52-48 to 50-50). This could be such a glorious final.

1 AM: Looks close
3 AM: FFX is taking off.....
9 AM: Melee is done.
12 noon: Really, it's finished. FFX is still gaining 200 an hour.
2:45: 3000 barrier, comeback not happening.
3:15: METAL GEAR?
6:30: THIS IS SPARTA, WEST COAST ASV
8:00: Okay, the main ASV is over.....can FFX stop losing 50 votes an update now?
10:00: Okay, 2 hours to go, put up those barriers
11:30: Darn you Nintendo, and your rabid fanbase that just won't let your game lose a close match.
12:00 NINTENDO ALWAYS WINS
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

Bonus Poll:

Who is your favorite Smash character?

Fox
Meta-Knight
Snake
Link
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

3000 votes would be difficult for anybody. I wouldn't hold my breath on a comeback that big, regardless of how good Melee's is. FFX's day vote isn't Frog/Magus level, which is about what it'd have to be for Melee to make a comeback of that magnitude.
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Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX!
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Melee did make a percentage comeback of that magnitude on FFX last contest. If you believe in OOT/RBY dampening its ASV (I've never thought this mattered enough to care about it), it could be even bigger in 1v1. Also, the last games contest showed us that for ASVs, CT = FFVII = FFVI, and FFX is probably not too much higher than FFVII there. It's more that Melee's is otherworldly- it'd gain 1% on Nintendo games with good ASVs like OOT.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

We saw more ridiculous comebacks in the 4-way format than it felt like we ever saw 1-on-1 for whatever the reason, so I'm remaining skeptical.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

I think it's because our trends were just more balanced back when we had 1v1 (especially CT, which is responsible for a good deal of our 4-way ridiculously huge swings). And we did have some huge swings in 1v1: Master Hand vs. Kuja was from -500 to 5500 in a match with like 73,000 votes, which is insane.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

I still don't see how:

a) People are picking Melee > Brawl. It literally makes no sense, and I thought this argument was finally shut up last contest
b) People think that Brawl > FFX will be close in anyway. We're looking at 53-47 at the closest.
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http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg

Duck Hunt was just shy of a 3,000-vote comeback, too.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
EPONA EPONA EPONA

People are picking Melee > Brawl. It literally makes no sense

Keep telling yourself that chief.
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"Of course I'm going to rig the contest in my favor." - SBAllen

And to be honest, I think 3000 is conservative. 120k seems a bit low for the final on December 23, but let's go with that. Melee went from 35.8% on FFX at 3 PM to 37.81% at the end last contest. Just taking the 2% literally gives us the 3000 estimate. If we treat those like x-stats instead, as we probably should, we get a 2.66% swing if it's happening around the 50% mark, which predicts a comeback from 4000 votes down is possible.

Looks to be fun!
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

Master Hand vs. Kuja was from -500 to 5500 in a match with like 73,000 votes, which is insane.

Well it is a lot easier to win when you are down 500 votes than if you are down 6000 votes. That's why people don't look at vote swings, just comebacks.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

From: charmander6000 | #366
Master Hand vs. Kuja was from -500 to 5500 in a match with like 73,000 votes, which is insane.

Eh, I don't like people bringing up this match because it's not like Kuja was ever dominating the match.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Well it is a lot easier to win when you are down 500 votes than if you are down 6000 votes. That's why people don't look at vote swings, just comebacks.

That's why you look at the percentage swing over a fixed period of time (3 PM to the end if we're looking at ASVs). In this case, it was about 3.5%, which in a 120k vote poll amounts to about a comeback from 5300 down to 0. The MH/Kuja match had only 73k votes, which mostly offsets that affect.

Note: That poll started/ended at 3 AM, so this comparison has flaws. But either way that poll had an absolutely ridiculous swing.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

Yeah, but if you look at the swings of matches where someone was barely ahead during the night and totally collapsed come daybreak (as FFIX and old school FF tend to do), then you're going to get something like that. FFIX's day vote is way worse than FFX's, or at least it was at that time. Everybody knows that if FFX only has a 500 vote lead come daybreak, it's going to get rolled.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

That's why you look at the percentage swing over a fixed period of time (3 PM to the end if we're looking at ASVs). In this case, it was about 3.5%, which in a 120k vote poll amounts to about a comeback from 5300 down to 0. The MH/Kuja match had only 73k votes, which mostly offsets that affect.

Note: That poll started/ended at 3 AM, so this comparison has flaws. But either way that poll had an absolutely ridiculous swing.

That's not exactly how it would work. SSBM/SSBB would be at 46.5% by the time the ASV hits and then will go 50/50 for the rest of the match.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

Also it was more of a 1% vote swing once the ASV hit in that match.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

That's why you look at the percentage swing, not the absolute vote total (which also depends on stuff like total votals anyway). In MH/Kuja case it was over 3.5%, which is comparable with stuff like Axel/Frog and Sandbag/Magus. It doesn't make a big difference to the percentage swing whether it's going from 46.5% to 50% or 50% to 53.5%.

FFX will hold up better than that of course, but we're going to be playing with a lot more votes than MH/Kuja, too.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

That's not exactly how it would work. SSBM/SSBB would be at 46.5% by the time the ASV hits and then will go 50/50 for the rest of the match.

Nope, I'm talking about the 3 PM percentage compared to the midnight percentage, NOT the 3 PM - Midnight percentage. That would probably be in the area of 57% for MH/Kuja (since I think back in 2005, polls got about half their votes before 3 PM).
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

Okay stats time...

Let's assume that the final will have 120k votes (personally I think it will a lot lower this year, but whatever). On a week day by the time the ASV hits 64-66% of the votes have been cast, let's use 65%. Note by the end of the contest most schools will be out for Christmas holidays so if FFX has been gaining during the day it's probably lights out for SSBM/SSBB.

Anyway once the ASV hits 78k votes have been cast and should FFX be leading by 3k the score will be roughly 52/48. Of the remainder votes SSBM/SSBB requires 53.57% of the votes, a 5.5% vote swing.

Using Master Hand/Kuja from 12pm-9pm (due to different start times) we see the MH with 50.61% at the beginning and earns 57.15% during that time frame, a 6.5% vote swing

Based on that SSBM/SSBB would have a chance, but there are a few problems.
1. The vote time change is a major one, the Nintendo power hour didn't form until the time was change, who knows how many people would have voted MH at the beginning rather than the ASV had the poll open earlier.
2. FFIX (Kuja) has a terrible ASV, nothing suggests that FFX will collapse as badly
3. Like I said at the beginning we're at winter break at the time so the ASV will be diluted if not non-existent.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

Hmmm...That's true. By the time we reach the end of the contest, most schools will have let out for Christmas. That will totally mess up our trends.

...Including maybe even MGS3/4 vs. G/S/C.

I like where this is going.
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http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png

Wind Waker vs Oblivion would be such a cool match to get wrong. I want Oblivion to win.

For what it's worth, Oblivion wins if Wind Waker wasn't SFFd last year!
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Quicker than the wind and as still as the forest!
Hotter than flames and more magnificent than a mountain!

From: UltimaterializerX | #376
Wind Waker vs Oblivion would be such a cool match to get wrong. I want Oblivion to win.

For what it's worth, Oblivion wins if Wind Waker wasn't SFFd last year!

With 53% exactly.

Not sure I want to take that risk!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

hmm, MGS3/4 / GSC/Zelda is Monday the 20th. yeah, almost no school will be out that early.

time to look more into this
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xyzzy

as for Oblivion, just ask yourself if Wind Waker is worth 44% on MGS3.
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xyzzy

I've never -not- been out of class by the 20th.
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I'm too tired to drive anywhere anyway right now, do you care if I stay?
Call me numbers.

really? hm. I wish there was a way we could see what everyone did. I guess we could just ask the board?
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xyzzy

okay, I *think* I've got this right. somebody should double-check me just in case.

the following is the list of weekend night matches. I excluded the day matches because they're pretty much the same, but a weekend night match generally favours the night person since the day vote doesn't really start until later in the morning. I've bolded the interesting ones:

10/23 - Halo 3 / Super Mario Sunshine
10/24 - Metroid Prime / Star Ocean 3
10/30 - Pokemon DPP / Metroid Fusion
10/31 - Disgaea / Valkyria Chronicles
11/6 - Golden Sun / Ratchet & Clank: UYA
11/7 - Star Wars: KOTOR / Devil May Cry
11/13 - Metal Gear Solid 3 / Timesplitters 2
11/14 - Paper Mario / Katamari Damacy
11/20 - Paper Mario TTYD / Gears of War
11/21 - Fallout 3 / Rock Band 2
11/25 (Thanksgiving) - Smash Bros. Melee / Warcraft 3 or Morrowind
11/26 (Black Friday) - Pokemon DPP / WWF No Mercy or Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance
11/27 - Super Mario Galaxy / Pokemon Emerald or GTA4
11/28 - Bioshock / Kingdom Hearts 2
12/4 - Metal Gear Solid 4 / Diablo 2
12/5 - Zelda: Majora's Mask / Chrono Cross
12/11 - Final Fantasy X / Golden Sun or GTA:SA
12/12 - Resident Evil 4 / some game that'll get killed
12/18 - Metal Gear Solid 3 / Metal Gear Solid 4
12/19 - Fallout 3 / Half-Life 2
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xyzzy

yeah, just looked up my high school. their first day off is 12/24 and they return 1/3.
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xyzzy

Hmmm...That's true. By the time we reach the end of the contest, most schools will have let out for Christmas. That will totally mess up our trends.

In the case of high schools, they will get off for Christmas vacation starting around December 23rd or the 24th. Colleges are a different story, though. They will get off a bit earlier than high schools do. At least when I was in college, I got off for Christmas vacation starting on December 14th, I believe (that was the day I had to leave my dorm room to go back home again).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

From: transience | #381
yeah, just looked up my high school. their first day off is 12/24 and they return 1/3.

man, that's it? we've always gotten like 2 and a half weeks -- we got out like the15th and went back the 3rd or 4th.
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I'm too tired to drive anywhere anyway right now, do you care if I stay?
Call me numbers.

Man, that's ridiculous that schools aren't getting out until the 23rd. Man, we used to get three weeks at least for Christmas Break when I was in school. We would be out the week leading up to Christmas.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

maybe I'm the exception here and not you guys. I have no idea.
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xyzzy

College usually got out around the 12th or so for me while high school was probably just shy of the 20th...hard to remember, but I don't recall staying there so late.
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Where's your horse?
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg

maybe it's a south thing. if i recall, both leon and harrich are from tennessee!

lol southern education.

not that i think the difference would be that overwhelming anyway!
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I'm too tired to drive anywhere anyway right now, do you care if I stay?
Call me numbers.

if anything we should probably be focusing on more populated areas! like new york which is where I am

most colleges here are out way before the 20th.

hey Leon, do you have any fancy mgs3/4 trend charts laying around?
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xyzzy

From: dragon22391 | #389
maybe it's a south thing. if i recall, both leon and harrich are from tennessee!

lol southern education.

I believe Leon's a Georgia-man...bless his heart!

My state and laughing at southern (public high school) education is correct though.
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Take seven seconds to think of Epona's Song, please.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg

Finally entered a bracket for the first time. Mostly random though, and banking on NintendoFAQs for most of the outcome >_>
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Pram's WA2 screenshot gallery (unfortunately, on indefinite hiatus >_>)
http://s50.photobucket.com/albums/f345/Mr_Plue/Wild%20Arms%202%20Gallery/

Yeah, I live in Georgia now. Born in Tennessee. Went to school in both places, school schedule didn't really vary widely either place though.
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Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX!
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MGS3 trend charts:

First round match took place on a Sunday:

Time | Halo 2 | MGS3 | Okami | WoW | Demographic
EBV | 21.08% | 36.62% | 19.79% | 22.52% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 21.40% | 36.34% | 18.78% | 23.47% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 19.42% | 36.30% | 19.47% | 24.82% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 18.13% | 36.38% | 20.86% | 24.63% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 22.91% | 34.20% | 18.56% | 24.34% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 23.46% | 35.19% | 18.11% | 23.24% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 22.94% | 35.38% | 18.41% | 23.27% | (22:00-24:00)

Second round match took place on a Thursday:

Time | Oblivion | Symphonia MGS3 | WoW | Demographic
EBV | 23.03% | 23.98% | 33.67% | 19.31% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 22.14% | 22.43% | 33.15% | 22.29% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 23.02% | 19.84% | 33.07% | 24.07% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 24.65% | 19.83% | 30.90% | 24.61% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 26.03% | 19.68% | 31.58% | 22.70% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 25.90% | 21.35% | 30.96% | 21.80% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 25.99% | 22.00% | 30.78% | 21.23% | (22:00-24:00)

Third round match also took place on a Sunday:

Time | MGS3 | Oblivion | LOZ: TP | RE4 | Demographic
EBV | 22.86% | 18.32% | 34.26% | 24.56% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 24.62% | 18.86% | 31.95% | 24.56% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 25.70% | 20.17% | 29.82% | 24.31% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 25.06% | 20.69% | 31.47% | 22.78% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 22.17% | 20.66% | 34.03% | 23.13% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 22.28% | 21.15% | 32.76% | 23.80% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 23.50% | 21.00% | 31.11% | 24.39% | (22:00-24:00)

Also, if you want to see how Oblivion's trends compare with a Zelda game, here ya go.

MGS4 charts next.
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http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png

Matches as early as December 13th could have a weaker ASV than usual, because of college students getting out for Christmas vacation. GameFAQs now consists of way more college students than high school students, if you look at this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3894

About twice as many college students as high school students. Compare this with an old poll from 2002:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=838
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

I think most schools around where I live in New England won't be getting out until Christmas Eve this year. I even heard about one high school in a neighboring town that held classes on Christmas Eve one year, although that's exceptional.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

Uh, Luster, I don't think college students are really impacted by the ASV in the first place. They don't have to wait until after school to vote.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

MGS4 charts:

First round match took place on a Thursday:

Time | BioShock | LBP | MGS4 | Portal | Demographic
EBV | 22.42% | 10.11% | 39.17% | 28.30% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 22.36% | 10.28% | 41.65% | 25.72% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 21.84% | 10.36% | 42.37% | 25.43% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 22.44% | 11.17% | 41.40% | 24.99% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 22.96% | 11.11% | 42.13% | 23.80% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 23.25% | 11.90% | 41.73% | 23.12% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 23.88% | 11.01% | 41.94% | 23.17% | (22:00-24:00)

Second round match took place on a Sunday:

Time | MGS4 | Portal | Fallout 3 | Halo 3 | Demographic
EBV | 36.06% | 20.87% | 25.75% | 17.32% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 36.23% | 22.53% | 24.34% | 16.89% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 36.99% | 22.06% | 25.24% | 15.71% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 37.61% | 21.73% | 25.21% | 15.44% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 34.62% | 20.08% | 25.35% | 19.95% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 34.52% | 19.61% | 26.08% | 19.79% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 34.85% | 20.49% | 26.07% | 18.59% | (22:00-24:00)

Third round match took place on a Monday:

Time | SSBB | CoD4 | MGS4 | Fallout 3 | Demographic
EBV | 39.85% | 14.10% | 29.50% | 16.55% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 37.01% | 16.17% | 28.76% | 18.06% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 34.56% | 16.29% | 29.46% | 20.11% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 35.81% | 15.21% | 27.98% | 21.00% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 36.19% | 16.21% | 26.72% | 20.88% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 38.58% | 17.28% | 23.93% | 20.21% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 36.03% | 17.96% | 25.53% | 20.48% | (22:00-24:00)

Fourth round match took place on a Friday:

Time | LOZ: TP | RE4 | SSBB | MGS4 | Demographic
EBV | 23.41% | 23.55% | 27.99% | 25.05% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 22.86% | 21.81% | 26.78% | 28.55% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 22.90% | 23.23% | 24.71% | 29.16% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 23.65% | 23.05% | 25.23% | 28.07% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 24.19% | 22.53% | 26.89% | 26.39% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 23.63% | 21.40% | 29.26% | 25.71% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 22.56% | 20.16% | 28.91% | 28.37% | (22:00-24:00)

Semifinal match took place on a Sunday:

Time | LOZ: OOT | FFX | MGS4 | SSBB | Demographic
EBV | 38.62% | 21.65% | 21.21% | 18.53% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 40.37% | 20.18% | 20.84% | 18.61% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 38.88% | 22.99% | 21.95% | 16.18% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 37.80% | 25.29% | 21.00% | 15.91% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 41.49% | 21.22% | 18.69% | 18.60% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 42.84% | 20.53% | 18.74% | 17.89% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 42.84% | 21.90% | 18.63% | 16.63% | (22:00-24:00)

Man, the trends in this one are crazy. FFX's night vote and early morning weekend vote are crazy though. It's funny how OoT and SSBB basically turn the tables once we hit the day vote though.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

red sox 777 | Posted 10/15/2010 1:56:50 AM | message detail
Uh, Luster, I don't think college students are really impacted by the ASV in the first place. They don't have to wait until after school to vote.

A lot of them probably at least have some classes in the morning and may not bother to vote until later in the day after they finish all their classes for the day. So I'm not really expecting too many of them to vote in the morning or at night before they go to sleep (if they are awake when the match starts).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Well, the games that do well with the ASV have always been the ones that do well with the younger crowd; there's never been an indication that the percentage of college voters increased during this time. I think in the age polls (you must have trends for them!), the ages for HS and younger exploded in the ASV, while the other ones decreased.

Besides, college classes don't all end at the same time, and there's nothing really special about 3 PM to a college student. It'd be the same as for people who work (and there's more uniformity for when work ends for people than college classes, which can differ from day to day of the week).
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.