GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 915
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2010 8:40:59 PM | message detail |
Nintendo is invincible. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/11/2010 8:41:12 PM | message detail |
To Nintendo be the glory. --- Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 8:41:40 PM | message detail |
Since it got lost in the end of that topic: What are the thoughts on TF2/Fable? I haven't seen any discussion on it. --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/11/2010 8:41:56 PM | message detail |
Wow, nobody made one at ~400 posts? A+ 500 post, by the way. --- Wylvane PrivateBiscuit1 is a horrible user. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 8:42:23 PM | message detail |
I'm
not talking about LFF, I'm talking about even scenarios where people
are randomly boosting Nintendo out of nowhere because hey, why not?
Galaxy somehow beating CoD4 despite there being literally 0 evidence
for it is just one example. Guys. Metroid Prime and Suoer Mario Galaxy blew ass. It's time to move on. --- DFF |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/11/2010 8:43:06 PM | message detail |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #003 I think this one's getting rather underlooked. TF2 is weak, and Fable and its sequels have looked alright in previous contests. I could see Fable winning it without a problem. I do know it'll be the first match I bank on! --- Wylvane HaRRicH is a horrible user. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/11/2010 8:43:46 PM | message detail |
TF2
because of Valve growth and the game being sold for $2 last year. Fable
has never seen a contest poll and has never looked noteworthy in GotY
polls or anything, but I still think it has a shot. TF2 is an
exclusively online, exclusively multplayer game, so yeah, I think any
legit single-player RPG has a shot against that. --- Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 8:43:50 PM | message detail |
No trolling, just telling it like it is: you guys are desperate for Nintendo to lose. That's really got nothing to do with it. I love Galaxy as much as, if not more than, just about anybody here. I have little love for Halo, no love for Call of Duty 4. I'll be voting for Nintendo games more often than not here. I just think Sunshine being anywhere close to Galaxy in strength is awful, and if it happens, I will hate the Nintendo fanbase forever. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/11/2010 8:44:41 PM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #005 Literally 0 evidence? The ****ing 2007 GotY poll? Come on, CoD4 would deservingly be the favorite of that match and is most likely the stronger game of the two now, but it's definitely reasonable to say Galaxy has a chance there. --- Wylvane KommunistKoala is a horrible user. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 8:45:05 PM | message detail |
Team
Fortress 2 and Heavy blew chunks in their contest matches, and Spy
didn't fare much better. The Fable upset worries me, but I'm sticking
with TF2. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/11/2010 8:45:14 PM | message detail |
Yeah, but, for better or for worse, Sunshine is the Mario game on the Gamecube. That has to count for something. --- One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 8:45:56 PM | message detail |
The GotY poll with two 360 shooters in it? --- DFF |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 8:46:31 PM | message detail |
How
is taking a tried and true strong game (Halo: CE) against the crappiest
Mario game there is (which is further hampered by how assy Galaxy
looked) being "desperate for Nintendo to lose"? I'm pretty sure all of
us have either Brawl or Melee winning the whole shebang, and I think
some people (I know I am) will be tempted to take Mario > Cloud next
year. --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 8:47:12 PM | message detail |
From: FastFalcon05 | #011 My issue with this is that Mario Galaxy sold more, is much higher acclaimed, much more loved. And honestly, it didn't look much better than Halo 3 last contest. What is Sunshine supposed to do? --- DFF |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2010 8:48:52 PM | message detail |
We
are desperate for Nintendo to lose. That is why 79% or something of
Gurus picked FFVII to beat OOT, when most of us knew it was a toss-up
match, or at least knew that before we deluded ourselves into thinking
FFVII should be the favorite. I do think Nintendo took a big fall in 2008 and has stayed down there since then- it's not on the ridiculous levels it was at in 2005-7. This fall was partially mitigated by Square's gradual decline over the years in Nintendo vs. Square matchups, and as far as games go, seems to be entirely restricted to New Nintendo games. The field is really a lot more open now than it was before 2008. Being from Nintendo isn't nearly as much of an auto-win as it was before, but it just doesn't feel that way because it's been so much longer since anyone not from Nintendo (and L-Block) won a contest. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/11/2010 8:50:31 PM | message detail |
And honestly, it didn't look much better than Halo 3 last contest. What is Sunshine supposed to do? I have no idea. I admit I've been out of touch for the last few contests despite filling in brackets. now that i've got free time I might research it more and have more informed opinions. But my gut says that the mario fanbase is usually pretty loyal. Although I just checked my bracket which I just did on the initial run, I actually have it losing to Halo 3. Either way, I don't think it will beat Halo (and I don't think it deserves too, either). --- One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 8:51:32 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #015 Eh, I'd expect those numbers to flip-flop if we had another full-on Games Contest next year. I don't think the number of people who picked Link to lose was very high last time either. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2010 8:53:05 PM | message detail |
Also,
Halo 1 in the day and Halo 3 at night are very different games.
Creativename did some calculations for the difference between day Sora
and night Sora last contest, and it was around 56/44 against neutral
opponents. If you think Halo 1 beats Halo 3 54-46, there could be as
much as a 60-40 difference between those 2 matches. Granted, Mario
Sunshine will also be a day-oriented game so it'll cut down on those
numbers somewhat, but it could still easily beat Halo 3 narrowly and
then get Ulti-style blown out against Halo 1 or worse. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 8:54:43 PM | message detail |
Why are we assuming that Halo 1 beats Halo 3, anyway? Halo 3 looked better to me last contest. --- DFF |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 8:55:42 PM | message detail |
Yeah, that was my justification for it. Almost right down to the numbers I was thinking. --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 8:55:52 PM | message detail |
The weird thing about the last contest was that Galaxy had an abysmal day vote. It was actually fairly consistent overnight. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
transience | Posted 10/11/2010 8:57:05 PM | message detail |
"desperate for Nintendo to lose"? really? most people here are going to take Pokemon to win over all the Metal Gear in the bracket. almost everyone will take TP over KH/KH2 despite it being a 52/48 match. people are taking a damn Golden Sun game over a GTA game. people are considering Animal Crossing over World of Warcraft. in virtually every debatable match the Nintendo game is getting the benefit of the doubt except maybe the final with FF10, and that's just because of how one-sided the evidence has been with those lopsided game of the decade polls. and now people picking one of the three biggest games of the decade over Super Mario Sunshine is "desperate to lose"? you all better be trolling because I will use capital letters and italics and whatever I need to make you feel bad via text. --- xyzzy |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2010 8:59:00 PM | message detail |
The weird thing about the last contest was that Galaxy had an abysmal day vote. It was actually fairly consistent overnight. So the New Nintendo fanbase doesn't care about Galaxy, while the Old Nintendo fanbase likes it. That makes a lot of sense, actually. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 9:01:14 PM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3477 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3493 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3468 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3489 I mean is there something I'm missing? I see almost everyone assuming Halo 1>3, and often by a decent margin, but showings don't really agree with that. --- DFF |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 9:02:30 PM | message detail |
I'd take D2 over Fallout 3 in a heartbeat (at least 2009 Fallout 3). It's a no brainer to me. --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2010 9:02:41 PM | message detail |
and
now people picking one of the three biggest games of the decade over
Super Mario Sunshine is "desperate to lose"? you all better be trolling
because I will use capital letters and italics and whatever I need to
make you feel bad via text. No, that isn't being desperate for Nintendo to lose. Stuff like FFVII > OOT is. I might put FFX to win the contest under that category too. Which isn't to say that either of those were bad picks, but if a match looks even, we tend to favor the non-Nintendo entrant disproportionately, especially at the end of the contest. If Link ever showed signs of weakness indicating a real chance of him losing, you bet we'd jump all over it. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
transience | Posted 10/11/2010 9:02:51 PM | message detail |
that's
not a stats judgment for me. you can show me every poll in the world
and common sense will still tell me that the original is the biggest in
that series. --- xyzzy |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 9:03:41 PM | message detail |
Why? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3499 This is Diablo II's fairest shake against good competition (the other poll had it facing Melee/WW combo), and it got creamed. Fallout 3 held up way better. --- DFF |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 9:03:58 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #026 I'll disagree strongly with that, given the old mantra of "When in doubt, pick the Nintendo entrant" --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/11/2010 9:04:05 PM | message detail |
I'd take D2 over Fallout 3 in a heartbeat (at least 2009 Fallout 3). It's a no brainer to me. Turtle'd --- http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/11/2010 9:04:22 PM | message detail |
From: transience | #022 Of course, man. The stats topic is one of the most anti-Nintendo (or heck, "least pro-Nintendo" if that sounds better) parts of this board. It's not big on either Pokemon or Zelda - one is the biggest Nintendo series on the board, and the other is the biggest Nintendo series on the site. Believe me, it's not that hard to notice peeps put the blinders on every year and look for that match that they want Nintendo to drop when it should probably be the other way around. And I reiterate, once again, that I STILL have HL2 beating Prime and Halo: CE beating Sunshine. I'm just saying, if Nintendo rocks the hell out of this contest like they've done with the last couple, let's not be shocked, let's not blame the fanbase, and let's not lose our minds because "it can't make sense." Let's just blame ourselves for not seeing it. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
transience | Posted 10/11/2010 9:04:41 PM | message detail |
FF7 > OOT wasn't bias, it was fact based on previous results! good grief. --- xyzzy |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 9:05:32 PM | message detail |
From: transience | #027 It seems wrong to me to judge it on GameFAQs like that. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2490 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3962 The difference between the Xbox and the 360 is pretty substantial here. I think there a lot of people on GameFAQs who have played Halo 3 and not Halo 1. --- DFF |
Articuno2001 | Posted 10/11/2010 9:07:28 PM | message detail |
Speaking of polls, what happened to today's poll? --- 15th in Best Game Ever 2009 http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 9:07:51 PM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #031 I've been supporting Nintendo for years and still think you're off your rocker. --- DFF |
transience | Posted 10/11/2010 9:08:34 PM | message detail |
I
agree that we champion Square games over Nintendo games in here. the
same is true of going against Pokemon. (you're guilty of this too) but that is that and this is this. Metroid Prime has looked positively dreadful and Super Mario Sunshine is Super Mario Sunshine. even if those two results go Nintendo's way, it won't really mean anything. those are small-time matches in the grand scheme. for Nintendo to make us look bad it will need to have a big upset that goes far, like a Pokemon over a FFX or something of that nature. --- xyzzy |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2010 9:08:39 PM | message detail |
It was a 50/50 match, not a match where you'd expect 80% of us to pick one option. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 9:10:39 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #037 But this Board is very often caught using old matches to make a pick. Look at any re-match where the loser of the first match wins the second match and you'll see the same pattern. It has nothing to do with liking or hating Nintendo... --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 9:11:03 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #037 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1659 The only reason I didn't pick FF7 was because everyone else was. --- DFF |
transience | Posted 10/11/2010 9:11:19 PM | message detail |
Halo
isn't just an xbox game. that game has a high playrate. it's not
'hate', it's not having the chance to play it. KOTOR has this problem,
Halo 1 doesn't. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2178 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2184 not too much different. --- xyzzy |
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2010 9:12:48 PM | message detail |
From: transience | #032 Finally, somebody said it. I'm a Nintendo-fan through and through (though I do prefer FF7 to LoZ:OoT), but most of us stuck to FF7 because we were hung up on results from five years ago, which is what we're kinda known for sometimes. --- Nominate Epona, please. http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2010 9:12:53 PM | message detail |
No,
that isn't being desperate for Nintendo to lose. Stuff like FFVII >
OOT is. I might put FFX to win the contest under that category too.
Which isn't to say that either of those were bad picks, but if a match
looks even, we tend to favor the non-Nintendo entrant
disproportionately, especially at the end of the contest. If Link ever
showed signs of weakness indicating a real chance of him losing, you
bet we'd jump all over it. As the person who runs the BOP and spends a lot of time looking at guru brackets I can tell you that this is false. More often than not the board sides with Nintendo. --- BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390 BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls |
LOLContests | Posted 10/11/2010 9:14:22 PM | message detail |
The
stats topic is definitely biased against Nintendo, or at the very least
against Board 8's mythical Nintendo bias. Have you seen one of these
during a Pikachu match? Not that that has anything to do with FFVII Vs. OoT. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest! |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/11/2010 9:14:52 PM | message detail |
I was referring to the stats topic, by the way. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 9:14:53 PM | message detail |
Eh.
To me it's just a matter of perspective. People legitimately hated Halo
1 for a long time - Halo anti-votes have largely dissipated by now, but
stuff like MC/Felix was ridiculous. Halo 3 doesn't really get that;
it's new and on a system GameFAQs has embraced. Halo 1 still drudges up
old memories of annoying fanboy wars. I mean, among the hardcore Halo fanbase I hear 1 is preferred, but...how big is the hardcore Halo fanbase on GameFAQs? Eh. --- DFF |
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2010 9:15:40 PM | message detail |
The Stats Topic is biased against Nintendo, but it isn't anywhere near to how much the rest of Board 8 is biased towards Nintendo. --- DFF |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 9:15:53 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator] |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2010 9:16:27 PM | message detail |
There
was not a person cheering for OOT in this topic the day of the bonus
match except for MWC, and nobody was actually surprised when OOT won on
either day. I'm not saying FFVII was a bad pick, I made it too, but I
think a lot of us thought the match was basically even and picked FFVII
hoping for a change from Nintendo winning every contest. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2010 9:16:36 PM | message detail |
I think we largely hate Pikachu because he's so hard to pin down and is so cute while reminding us that people used to hate Pikachu. I don't see us against Charizard or Mewtwo in similar ways. --- Epona EPONA EPONA EPONA EPONA EPONA EPONA Epona http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
transience | Posted 10/11/2010 9:16:59 PM | message detail |
no one was hoping for a change. OOT was the change! --- xyzzy |
