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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 914

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/10/2010 9:24:22 AM | message detail
And it isn't that hard to see that MGS4 being in the poll didn't help.

It doesn't help, but how much are we going to say LBP could be the difference of a weak to a mid-tier game based on it? I'm not making that jump just yet.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/10/2010 9:25:39 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #348
Well, the original reason LBP was brought up was because it's the only game TWEWY faced that was also in the last BGE. LBP shows potential (at least in that year) to be pretty weak, and if that's the case, TWEWY doesn't have many reasons to win.


LBP looked great in the 2008 GotY polls. That's ALL we have on it, other than Sackboy looking alright this year. And again, Dead Rising looked weaker.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2010 9:27:16 AM | message detail
It doesn't help, but how much are we going to say LBP could be the difference of a weak to a mid-tier game based on it? I'm not making that jump just yet.

Well I don't think anyone in this topic is taking it over GTAIII so there isn't much of a problem.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/10/2010 9:32:04 AM | message detail
LBP looked great in the 2008 GotY polls.

Which one? The Original Title poll has no notable strong games to me.

And again, Dead Rising looked weaker.

In which polls?
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2010 9:35:15 AM | message detail
Though if we're talking about LBP/DR then LBP takes that rather easily, only thing DR has is DR2.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2010 9:56:27 AM | message detail
Since we like to use GotY poll suddenly...

Let's take Dead Rising's performance against Oblivion in the 360 poll, note that Oblivion was in the PC poll and in the first Game of the Year poll the game did noticeable better against Gears of Wars (as in it went from 33% to 45%). So Dead Rising was able to get 30% against the weaker Oblivion and going by the x-stats it would get about 59% against the LBP that we saw in 2k9.

Going by the Oblivion that we saw in the Game of the Year poll (assuming constant Gears of War) Dead Rising is expected to get 45% on the LBP that we saw in 2k9.

Another way by using GeoW's performance against FFXII and TP in the final poll we get 33% and 27% respectively against the LBP that we saw in 2k9.

So overall, lol 4-ways, lol GotY polls.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/10/2010 9:58:16 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #354
Which one? The Original Title poll has no notable strong games to me.

In which polls?


It doesn't need to. Anyway it put up a good showing with MGS4 in the PS3 poll.

Also

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2626
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3692

This is all Dead Rising has. The latter may be a vote-in poll but it shows that the game has no name power.

As an aside, why the hell was Oblivion in the 360 poll in the first place? It's not an exclusive, and was released on PC at the same time.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2010 10:04:53 AM | message detail
For whatever reason CJayC had it on both.

Also if anyone is wondering TWEWY got about 31% in LBP.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2010 10:07:59 AM | message detail
*on LBP.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/10/2010 10:14:55 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #335
The game really is just that weak. It's not that we haven't seen proof of this already.


Actually, we haven't seen ANY proof of this. It's had a grand total of ONE poll without being saddled by MGS4, and it dominated it.

From: paulg235 | #325
If the game's main character easily loses to LAHARL, then I can easily see Dead Rising taking this one.


I wouldn't be confident in Frank West beating Laharl, personally.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/10/2010 10:32:05 AM | message detail
Laharl actually looked really good(for Laharl) this year, only getting doubled against Sora. I mean compare that to almost getting tripled by Yoshi...
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/10/2010 10:33:11 AM | message detail
Actually, on that note.

Doubled by Sora

vs.

Doubled by Ada

Who do you pick?

Yes I know lol 4-ways but still.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/10/2010 10:39:14 AM | message detail
Actually, there's a pretty simple comparison.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2884
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2905
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3271

Dante triples Laharl, quadruples Frank West, using Balthier.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/10/2010 10:55:35 AM | message detail
vs.

Doubled by Ada


You mean vs. 38% on Ama. That is Frank West's most recent contest.

It doesn't need to.

So this amounts to "because I said so" or something?

he latter may be a vote-in poll

I am not taking vote-in polls seriously.

It's had a grand total of ONE poll without being saddled by MGS4, and it dominated it.

There's no real read on any of those games it "dominated" and looking at some of the games in the same poll, they just happen to be incredibly weaker.

While there's no concrete evidence on either side, I really think its growth without MGS4 in the poll is small at best. Not something huge.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/10/2010 10:57:17 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #364
There's no real read on any of those games it "dominated" and looking at some of the games in the same poll, they just happen to be incredibly weaker.

While there's no concrete evidence on either side, I really think its growth without MGS4 in the poll is small at best. Not something huge.


I don't think a lot of LBP either, but don't make sweeping statements that it's proven to be weak based on other polls when it hasn't.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/10/2010 11:13:35 AM | message detail
Meh. The series poll was good enough for me at least in terms of its performance in 2009 not being surprising anymore.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/10/2010 11:14:17 AM | message detail
There are a lot of "Two games isn't a series" people. We saw it in the Series Contest, too.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/10/2010 11:46:54 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #364
You mean vs. 38% on Ama. That is Frank West's most recent contest.

So this amounts to "because I said so" or something?

I am not taking vote-in polls seriously.


No big difference, especially with Crono in the poll. When you have one powerhouse dominating a poll, the relationships between the lesser contestants can become skewed. No reason for Frank to boost either, unless Ada SFF'd him, but then what's to say Sora didn't SFF Laharl or Laharl SFF'd Sora? Same general fanbase(though Sora has casuals as well).

No it doesn't, but you don't need strong competition to get a reading on something.

But polls with the same amount of options and huge amounts of SFF, those are fine.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/10/2010 12:07:29 PM | message detail
No big difference, especially with Crono in the poll. When you have one powerhouse dominating a poll, the relationships between the lesser contestants can become skewed. No reason for Frank to boost either, unless Ada SFF'd him, but then what's to say Sora didn't SFF Laharl or Laharl SFF'd Sora? Same general fanbase(though Sora has casuals as well).

I think the game just being out longer can boost him somewhat. I don't think Crono being in the poll makes THAT much of a skewed result, though. If not, a tripling from Crono is still better than being doubled by Ada Wong.


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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/10/2010 7:32:18 PM | message detail
For what it's worth West was against another Capcom character in both matches.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/10/2010 7:36:49 PM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #361
Laharl actually looked really good(for Laharl) this year, only getting doubled against Sora. I mean compare that to almost getting tripled by Yoshi...


Guybrush actually looked really good(for Guybrush) this year, only getting tripled against Vincent. I mean compare that to getting quadrupled by Bowser...
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/10/2010 7:50:34 PM | message detail
First batch of Guest Sign-ups for the Analysis Crew are up

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56709305
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JawolopingJeff | Posted 10/10/2010 8:01:22 PM | message detail
Why did pokemon crystal get less nominations than DPP?
charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2010 8:04:42 PM | message detail
I would blame it on people thinking GSC was a 90s game, but then I see Majora's Mask as the most nominated Zelda game.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/10/2010 8:08:27 PM | message detail
It might not have. We don't know if seeding strictly follows nomination counts. Considering SSBB is a 2 seed, they probably don't.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/10/2010 8:34:23 PM | message detail
I'll go ahead and say this: Bacon could have switched Okami and CoD4 and everything would have been for the better. They're the same seed, but Okami/SoT would have been a good match, and CoD4 gets to fight Metroid Prime.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/10/2010 8:43:51 PM | message detail
I'm not convinced Okami would struggle with PoP:SoT...but it'd be closer than what CoD4 will do to it, and CoD4 in MP's division would be excellent for craziness.

Also, talking about CoD: even though Modern Warfare 2 just won the GotY here in January, four other games from 2009 out-seeded it. CoD4 out-seeded it too despite MW2 shattering pretty much every sales record at launch except all-time sales. Kinda funny.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2010 9:18:56 PM | message detail
People got sick of MW2 in a real hurry. CoD4 is undoubtedly stronger.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/10/2010 9:38:23 PM | message detail
I mentioned this in KP's topic, but my opinion on Megaman 2010 has somewhat changed. He put very some very impressive performances against Cid, Zack, and Ryu Hayabusa, but the Ryu Hayabusa match was impacted by the sprite round, and both Cid and Zack are FFVII characters. At the time, MM looked very very strong based off of Zack and Cid, like Samus level strong, but then we saw that Cloud and Sephiroth had dropped dramatically since 2008. Cloud went from 56% on Snake to 52% on Snake, and a similar drop for Zack puts Megaman only a little above where he looked to be in 2006-8 (around the level of Crono/Vincent).
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/11/2010 2:04:22 AM | message detail
I still love MW2 and I'm sure alot of people still do, cause the game is ****in' awesome and fun.

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Smuggernaut | Posted 10/11/2010 2:27:30 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #378
People got sick of MW2 in a real hurry. CoD4 is undoubtedly stronger.


ahahahahahahaha
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2010 9:01:53 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if CoD4 was stronger, MW2 barely defeated GTA: SA in the Game of the 00's poll and was pretty crushed against FFX.
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Pondos | Posted 10/11/2010 9:05:09 AM | message detail
I feel so wrong taking Prime to the F4. Yet I still can't see anything in its path stop it except HL2.

And I refuse to pick HL2!
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/11/2010 9:06:07 AM | message detail
I don't understand why you're laughing. Despite his ridiculous reasoning, CoD4 will SFF MW2 down to pieces. About a 70/30 beatdown here.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2010 9:06:49 AM | message detail
You could make an argument for God of War, plus people seem to be up on Fallout 3 too.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2010 12:53:35 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #384
I don't understand why you're laughing. Despite his ridiculous reasoning, CoD4 will SFF MW2 down to pieces. About a 70/30 beatdown here.


What ridiculous reasoning? There's been so much backlash to that game, especially by educated gamers. The whole dedicated servers debacle, overpriced-no-content DLC, the fact that the game is broken and cheap and they have no interest in fixing it. My group of friends played MW2 for a few weeks then went back to CoD4/5
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 12:59:22 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #385
You could make an argument for God of War, plus people seem to be up on Fallout 3 too.


I'm not sure what arguments people are making for God of War. That game isn't very strong.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/11/2010 2:03:27 PM | message detail
What ridiculous reasoning? There's been so much backlash to that game, especially by educated gamers. The whole dedicated servers debacle, overpriced-no-content DLC, the fact that the game is broken and cheap and they have no interest in fixing it. My group of friends played MW2 for a few weeks then went back to CoD4/5

The casuals still flock to that game like crazy. Not everyone cares about dedicated servers/overpriced DLC/your opinions on the game. Actually, I would say just about everyone doesn't care about your opinions on the game.
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transients | Posted 10/11/2010 2:05:28 PM | message detail
everyone left MW2 behind a few weeks after it was released, didn't ya know?

LIVE Activity for week of Sept 20th

Xbox 360 Top LIVE Titles (based on UU’s)

1 Halo: Reach
2 Modern Warfare 2
3 Halo 3
4 Call of Duty: WaW
5 FIFA Soccer 11 Demo
6 FIFA 10
7 Call of Duty 4 (Purchase the full game for direct download)
8 Madden NFL 11
9 GTA IV (Purchase the full game for direct download)
10 Red Dead Redemption
11 Battlefield Bad Co. 2
12 Gears of War 2
13 Forza Motorsport 3 (Download the demo)
14 Left 4 Dead 2
15 NBA 2K11 Demo
16 NHL 11
17 Halo 3: ODST
18 DEAD RISING 2: CASE ZERO
19 Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 Demo
20 NCAA Football 11

oh
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2010 2:07:12 PM | message detail
I'm not sure what arguments people are making for God of War. That game isn't very strong.

The game was pretty decent and the guy seems to be anti-Half-Life 2 for whatever reason and it's not like the other games in the top quarter are that strong.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 2:08:37 PM | message detail
"Pretty decent" isn't really good enough for me. Half-Life 2 is better than "pretty decent," I think. Give me "Beat FFXII" over "Lost to Tales of Symphonia," regardless of whatever excuses you want to make for GoW for losing that match.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2010 2:27:27 PM | message detail
Again for someone who doesn't want to pick HL2 or even MP GoW and FO3 would be your next best picks.
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transients | Posted 10/11/2010 2:28:26 PM | message detail
Metroid Prime is no worse a pick than God of War, really.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 2:28:38 PM | message detail
If you don't want to pick HL2 or Prime, Fallout 3 feels like the only other option. I don't see GoW getting it done.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2010 2:29:51 PM | message detail
And besides...

Half-Life 2 (2009g) VS God of War (2009g)

Half-Life 2 has a strength of 30.22.
God of War has a strength of 28.98.

Half-Life 2 wins with 52.05% of the vote!
A win of 4,887 with 119,095 total votes cast.

lol x-stats aside.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 2:33:49 PM | message detail
Man, the 2009 Games Contest stats...

Final Fantasy 12 (2009g) has a strength of 29.16 against Base Link.
Links Awakening (2009g) has a strength of 28.28 against Base Link.

Final Fantasy 12 51.51% 63,264
Links Awakening 48.49% 59,558
TOTAL VOTES 122,822
Final Fantasy 12 wins with 51.51% of the vote!
A 3,707 vote margin of victory.

Man, does anyone really pick this?

What a mess.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2010 2:36:09 PM | message detail
Didn't the GoW-collection come out after BGE2? Might be a x-factor worth considering, coupled with GoW3's release this year.
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neonreaper | Posted 10/11/2010 2:36:11 PM | message detail
What didn't they fix in MW2?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2010 2:36:16 PM | message detail
I mean, the entire upper half of the stats is a jumbled mess.

Metal Gear Solid 4 (2009g) has a strength of 35.02 against Base Link.
GTA: San Andreas (2009g) has a strength of 28.11 against Base Link.

Metal Gear Solid 4 59.87% 75,477
GTA: San Andreas 40.13% 50,600
TOTAL VOTES 126,077
Metal Gear Solid 4 wins with 59.87% of the vote!
A 24,877 vote margin of victory.

This is #15 vs. #40.

All about the parity.
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neonreaper | Posted 10/11/2010 2:39:07 PM | message detail
What didn't they fix in MW2?

and please, please, please don't say something like "hacked lobbies"
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