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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 914

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/9/2010 8:18:40 AM | message detail

On some matches in the contest:

Rock Band 2 vs. Deus Ex - RB2 is the consensus because it's the most popular music game, and you don't need to be all that strong to defeat Deus Ex. Really sad that they're both likely fodder though, as they have been some of the more influential titles of the generation and very popular elsewhere.

Demon's Souls vs. Mega Man 9 - I for one am astonished by Demon's Souls's high seed. True we had some astonishingly high seeds last contest and they didn't mean a thing (lol Mr. Mactavish), but...surely this does not apply for games, right? Anyways we know that Mega Man games are weak so Demon's Souls doesn't need to be so strong, and it IS a JRPG. Then again don't most FF/KH RPGs that are not on the GameCube tank on this site? Uh...well most platformers that are not old-school Mario are weak on this site period, so whatever!

Majora's Mask/Wind Waker/GSC vs. Metal Gear Solid 3/4 - Thing is, most of us in the GSC > MM/WW/TESIV camp, me included, are coherent in our opinion that GSC will be one hell of a powerhouse. We have a far better idea of the other games' strengths than we do of GSC, with who we only know that it's a high midcarder, and we don't know how high. I am personally hoping that Majora's Mask can somehow eradicate the Pokemenace (and defeat MGS4 if it gets there), but otherwise I don't really care.

(gee let's hope that I can fit in a playthrough of Majora's Mask after StarCraft, Link to the Past, and Ocarina of Time so I can form an actual opinion on the game)
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.

WhiteLens | Posted 10/9/2010 8:30:25 AM | message detail

I know it's only 1 point, but MvC2 or NSMB Wii?
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it's not going to change anything.

LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/9/2010 8:32:06 AM | message detail

My god exactly something I've been iffy about. I originally picked NSMBW but switched to MvC2 to take advantage of next-gen Mario being sadly weak on this site.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.

voltch | Posted 10/9/2010 8:40:04 AM | message detail

NSMB Wii, Street Fighter II is weakass, MvC2 is likely to be big time fodder.
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Nyoro~n

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2010 9:20:46 AM | message detail

I'm always on AIM. You're the clown that never shows up.

*spoilers for Braid, I guess*

I buy into the Princess = atomic bomb theory with Tim being the game's true villain, myself. The whole sons of *****es line paired with the puzzles being fragments of his memories going along with it well, too.

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KrahenProphet | Posted 10/9/2010 9:55:51 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #036
I'm honestly very worried Majora's Mask will beat it even though every stat suggests otherwise. It's not even x-stats, either. GSC came close to it with RBY in the same poll. Remove RBY and GSC jumps way up. The question is whether or not Majora's Mask will be an OOT proxy and gets tons of support.

It's a very important match, because if GSC wins it has a fee ride to the semifinal with FFX.

What's the reasoning on GSC being able to overtake Wind Waker and MGS3/4?
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Dr_Football punted me out of the Guru throne.
4th place in Summer Contest 2k4

MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2010 10:01:50 AM | message detail

I guess it makes sense if you think MGS4 is the second strongest MGS.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2010 10:05:14 AM | message detail

Also, wasn't Deus Ex or whatever like nearly at the bottom of the x-stats?
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2010 10:12:37 AM | message detail

From: KrahenProphet | #056
What's the reasoning on GSC being able to overtake Wind Waker and MGS3/4?

MM > WW is a given, and I'd take both of those games over MGS4, so if GSC beats MM it's going to the semis.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/9/2010 10:15:43 AM | message detail

Majora's Mask is not beating MGS4, though it should. And Wind Waker > MGS3/4 is just silly and nobody should be picking that unless you think there will be some humongous MGS dropoff, and given how well Snake did last contest I highly doubt it.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.

KrahenProphet | Posted 10/9/2010 10:20:02 AM | message detail

MM > WW? That's interesting. Why, might I ask?
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Dr_Football punted me out of the Guru throne.
4th place in Summer Contest 2k4

LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/9/2010 10:22:33 AM | message detail

Didn't Majora's Mask look stronger last time? And...isn't it generally regarded to be the better game anyways? I mean:

"Considered a companion to the all-time great The Legend of Zelda: The Ocarina of Time, Majora’s Mask is the last truly classic Zelda game to date, easily outpacing The Wind Waker and Twilight Princess."

-GameStooge
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2010 10:29:53 AM | message detail

Shut up.
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KrahenProphet | Posted 10/9/2010 10:44:10 AM | message detail

Oh nvm, I figured it out. It has a higher seed!
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Dr_Football punted me out of the Guru throne.
4th place in Summer Contest 2k4

NoDicePwn | Posted 10/9/2010 10:45:07 AM | message detail

WTF is Gamestooge
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voltch | Posted 10/9/2010 11:13:46 AM | message detail

who is ulti telling to shut up?
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Uguu~

Pondos | Posted 10/9/2010 11:15:54 AM | message detail

How big a favorite is Melee (or Brawl) against TP?
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/9/2010 11:17:35 AM | message detail

Deus Ex is a little cult, AND a shooter. Not a good combo. Rock Band is extremely popular.

Deus Ex could surprise if voters anti-vote because they're sick of music games, but I'm confident in RB2.
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L O S T
X360 GT: VinnyMendoza90 Currently playing: Perfect Dark

DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/9/2010 11:18:27 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #066
who is ulti telling to shut up?

LinkMarioSamus, for bringing up points that never matter. As the poster before you said.. WTF is Gamestooge? Their opinion doesn't matter here.
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L O S T
X360 GT: VinnyMendoza90 Currently playing: Perfect Dark

NoDicePwn | Posted 10/9/2010 11:19:10 AM | message detail

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3463
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1725

Deus Ex has proved its not worth anything here. Rock band simply needs to be fodder and not turbo fodder and it'll win it
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2010 11:19:17 AM | message detail

MM > WW? That's interesting. Why, might I ask?

Interesting? The dude said MM was better than MGS4. Rofl.

Turtle power.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.

Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/9/2010 11:23:56 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #062
Didn't Majora's Mask look stronger last time? And...isn't it generally regarded to be the better game anyways? I mean:

"Considered a companion to the all-time great The Legend of Zelda: The Ocarina of Time, Majora’s Mask is the last truly classic Zelda game to date, easily outpacing The Wind Waker and Twilight Princess."

-GameStooge

Massive GameStooge boost for MM confirmed.
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Wylvane
shadosneko is a horrible user.

KrahenProphet | Posted 10/9/2010 11:30:15 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #071
MM > WW? That's interesting. Why, might I ask?

Interesting? The dude said MM was better than MGS4. Rofl.

Turtle power.

No matter who it is, I'd like to question their reasoning. In some instances, just for amusement.

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Dr_Football punted me out of the Guru throne.
4th place in Summer Contest 2k4

voltch | Posted 10/9/2010 11:48:34 AM | message detail

**** LMS is back, oh damnit, now it doesn't stand for last standing match anymore.
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*Shakes Fist*

HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2010 11:53:23 AM | message detail

Voltch, I think you mean last man standing...!
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EPONA EPONA EPONA

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 12:01:06 PM | message detail

So guys,

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626755092

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626757687

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626762832

Discuss.

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DFF

Articuno2001 | Posted 10/9/2010 12:31:45 PM | message detail

The first two match ups will not happen.

As for Golden Sun v. GTA San Andreas, I think Golden Sun, being a handheld JRPG and GTA being GTA will slightly favor GTA here. Though I could see this going either way, especially with the new Golden Sun coming out on the day of the match.

We'll see. I don't particularly like GTA anyway, so I might change this later.
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15th in Best Game Ever 2009
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2010 12:34:45 PM | message detail

I never understood the hype the board gives for MM > WW, sure it could happen, but I'd be surprised if it did.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2010 12:39:00 PM | message detail

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626755092

Halo 1 > Halo 3 IMO.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626757687

Okami is the safe bet pick.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626762832

As long as you don't go down the lol GTA road and think GS actually has strength then I'm fine, but if you ask me ToS would have no problem against GS.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2010 12:43:36 PM | message detail

People are providing a good argument for Golden Sun standing a chance, but I can't pull the trigger. I wouldn't take an FE-game over any major GTA-game, and I'm unsure how much bigger Golden Sun really can be. GS did barely beat FE in the Nintendo-poll, but they were both at ~4% and Pokemon (along with the other major franchises) was in the poll...plus neither of them beat Earthbound by very much. I also don't think I could put that kind of faith in a Paper Mario- or Mario & Luigi-game, so GS is just going to have to prove it to me before I can take its games to win matches like this.
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EPONA EPONA Epona Epona Epona EPONA EPONA
Epona EPONA EPONA Epona EPONA EPONA Epona

HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2010 12:45:56 PM | message detail

Since ToS was brought up, if you think GoW would improve without GTA:SA in the poll (which I find a little dumb, but possible I guess), then you'll probably also find it reasonable to think GTA:SA would improve without GoW. That would help it out as an x-factor here.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 12:46:22 PM | message detail

I wouldn't take an FE-game over any major GTA-game, and I'm unsure how much bigger Golden Sun really can be.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=774
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1485

Notice how Golden Sun 2, which a lot less people played, had no trouble with Fire Emblem. Remember how Fire Emblem didn't even get into the last Games Contest - Golden Sun did, before we had it removed.

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DFF

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 12:47:11 PM | message detail

I don't really think there was any LFF in the poll.

And you know, when I made those picks I did not expect Halo 3 and Demon's Souls to be the ones people had issues with!

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DFF

Articuno2001 | Posted 10/9/2010 12:47:36 PM | message detail

seriously, what game in that first poll could challenge GS?
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15th in Best Game Ever 2009
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 12:49:22 PM | message detail

Advance Wars? Castlevania? Mario Kart? Mega Man?

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DFF

charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2010 12:50:41 PM | message detail

I feel pretty confident taking GS over FE7, but that's still a lot to make up.

Since ToS was brought up, if you think GoW would improve without GTA:SA in the poll (which I find a little dumb, but possible I guess)

Not to relive that topic again, but it's not that hard to believe two PS2 games targetting the same type of people to have some overlap, especially when you have a game acting like a sore thumb.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2010 12:51:52 PM | message detail

GS didn't make it into 2004 either though, and GS barely out-seeded FE (which has another game in its series in the bracket and another that reached the vote-ins)...so that's not particularly compelling to me. Solid though, but I don't know how much doubling Castlevania: Circle of the Moon nine years ago is going to mean against a game that could have beaten Metroid Prime last year.
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E-p-o-n-a

Articuno2001 | Posted 10/9/2010 12:52:44 PM | message detail

Mario Kart Super Circuit and Mega Man Battle Network are disgraces to their names.
I don't know much about Castlevania.
I probably would have voted for AW, but do you know this is it's first contest? None of AW's characters have gotten in either. It just wasn't very popular, apparently.
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15th in Best Game Ever 2009
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2010 12:54:55 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #086
Not to relive that topic again, but it's not that hard to believe two PS2 games targetting the same type of people to have some overlap, especially when you have a game acting like a sore thumb.

Right, and I wouldn't mind if people just said ToS stood out. I just don't agree with GTA:SA and GoW having much overlap that would hurt each other there on their own.

What-ev though.
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EPONA EPONA EPONA

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 12:55:02 PM | message detail

I'm sorry, but

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3512

I have no idea how you can look at that and go "Eh, Golden Sun might beat Fire Emblem." It's utterly ridiculous. And Golden Sun beating FE in the series poll is a very good result, and Golden Sun had 2 games 6 years ago while Fire Emblem has 5, 1 that just came out last year.

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DFF

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 12:56:57 PM | message detail

Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/9/2010 12:59:25 PM | message detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/9/2010 1:00:01 PM | message detail

How could people look forward to Golden Sun DS more than Super Mario Galaxy 2?! Crazy.

But yeah, I'm sticking with Golden Sun > GTA:SA. Not buying Halo 3 or Demon's Souls to R3 though! Might buy Demon's Souls to R2...

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Final Fantasy XIII review: http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/ps3/review/R140434.html
You're pretty good, Dr_Football.

charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2010 1:02:12 PM | message detail

I mean, this is what it looks like to me.

Last Year: Nope, ToS can't be good.
*ToS ends up being good*
This Year: Nope, Golden Sun can't be good, despite it having every reason to be good or better that ToS had.

The only difference is that ToS got a chance to prove itself.

We could do that with any game really. GS will have strength, but so far I haven't seen why it would be stronger than ToS.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 1:04:15 PM | message detail

Golden Sun sold about twice as much as ToS, for one. For two, Isaac and Felix have always > Lloyd and Kratos despite Isaac and Felix being worthless characters. For three, that poll I linked.

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DFF

charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2010 1:07:59 PM | message detail

1. Sales don't matter
2. characters =/= games
3. GSDS was a major highlight at E3
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls

KrahenProphet | Posted 10/9/2010 1:10:23 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #076
So guys,

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626755092

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626757687

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56681108/626762832

Discuss.

SMS > Halo 3, SMS > Halo
MM9 > DS, MM9 > Okami
GTA:SA > GS
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Dr_Football punted me out of the Guru throne.
4th place in Summer Contest 2k4

Articuno2001 | Posted 10/9/2010 1:11:07 PM | message detail

From: KrahenProphet | #097
SMS > Halo 3, SMS > Halo
MM9 > DS, MM9 > Okami
GTA:SA > GS

what
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15th in Best Game Ever 2009
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2010 1:11:19 PM | message detail

1. Yes, they do. They aren't the end-all, but there is such a thing as a correlation. Games that sell more tend to do better, because they're more well-known. All of the games that are going to the Elite 8 have sold millions.
2. Again, correlation. Games that are stronger tend to produce stronger characters. To me, it's impressive that Isaac still gets in and does better than the ToS guys, because no one cares about Isaac.
3. Absolutely no one would have called GS3 a 'major highlight' until that poll. It beat out two mainline Mario games, two Metal Gear games, Metroid, and Halo.

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DFF

MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2010 1:17:17 PM | message detail

GTA Sold more than GS.. In fact, it's so much more if we went just by sales this wouldn't even be a debatable match. I don't think it's a positive point to say it'll beat ToS because it sold more because guess what? So did San Andreas.

I don't know if I'd take Isaac over Kratos Aurion. Maybe Lloyd, but I Aurion I would question.

Only thing GS has going for it is the hype poll. I now wish we had seen it in the last games contest... but it does have a gap to overcome.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.

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