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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 913

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red sox 777 | Posted 10/6/2010 6:52:46 PM | message detail
Game of the Decade 1980 - 1989: Super Mario Bros.
Game of the Decade 1990 - 1999: Ocarina of Time
Game of the Decade 2000 - 2009: ???
Game of the Decade 2010 - 2019: Super Smash Bros.: Nintendo vs. Square

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 6:53:51 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X.
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GunMage | Posted 10/6/2010 7:00:57 PM | message detail
Game of the Decade 2010 - 2019: Super Smash Bros.: Nintendo vs. Square

Super Smash Bros. Dissidia?
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:12:02 PM | message detail
If we're doing a 26-character cast for Square.....

Cloud
Sephiroth
Aeris
Vincent
Tifa

Crono
Magus
Frog

Tidus
Auron
Yuna

Terra
Locke
Kefka

Cecil
Squall
Vivi
Lightning
Balthier
Gilgamesh

Sora
Riku

Chocobo
Mog

Fei
Aya Brea

How's that?
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/6/2010 7:12:55 PM | message detail
Zidane.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 7:16:25 PM | message detail
Aya Brea gets my stamp of approval
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 6:29:15 AM | message detail
So what's more impressive? Melee getting 55% on FFX with Kingdom Hearts also in the poll, or Brawl getting 58% on MGS4 with both CoD4 and Fallout 3 in the poll?
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/7/2010 6:31:28 AM | message detail
For some reason, I get the feeling that KH overlaps a bit more with FFX than either FO3/CoD4 does with PS3 stealth epic.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 6:32:26 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #008
For some reason, I get the feeling that KH overlaps a bit more with FFX than either FO3/CoD4 does with PS3 stealth epic.


If this is true, then Brawl is easily the stronger game. Like, not even close.
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Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 10/7/2010 6:33:34 AM | message detail
Probably just about Brawl, in my opinion. Putting up marginally better results against opposition in fourways doesn't always mean much though, look at FFVII/OoT.

So yeah, Assassin's Creed II VS Wind Waker, I request a detailed explanation for why the upset won't happen!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/7/2010 6:41:31 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #009
If this is true, then Brawl is easily the stronger game. Like, not even close.


This just makes me feel better about Brawl > Melee, then. And possibly Brawl > FFX.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/7/2010 7:00:07 AM | message detail
I am definitely biting on Crisis Core making it to the Division Finals.

Buster Sword vs. Vaan? Haha. Upset special. And then it's momentum will carry over on another winnable match. ME won't be able to stop it.
J
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3rdTimesDeCharm | Posted 10/7/2010 7:03:47 AM | message detail
Nice attempt at the 500 post ulti

and idk why, but I picked brawl without hesitation. I think age will have an effect on the results at least somewhat between ssbm and ssbb as well as the mgs match up.
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Intanos VI | Posted 10/7/2010 7:12:24 AM | message detail
Only matches i'm torn on..

Oblivion vs Wind Waker
Uncharted 2 vs Sonic Adventure 2
Halo vs Halo 3
Warcraft III vs Morrowind
Dragon Age vs F-Zero GX
Kingdom Hearts vs Kingdom Hearts 2
Golden Sun vs GTA:SA
Skies of Arcadia vs Mass Effect
Portal, FF12 or Crisis Core getting to RE4
SoTC vs The Sims is something i know nothing about aswell

Rest i'm sorted.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 7:25:19 AM | message detail
If there is any justice in this world, Portal will make the division final.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2010 7:31:33 AM | message detail
Skies of Arcadia vs Mass Effect

You should be more worried about SoA/BG2.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/7/2010 7:32:45 AM | message detail
That would be a triumph indeed. I'd be so happy if it happened...prolly won't though :(
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Colegreen_c12 | Posted 10/7/2010 7:35:10 AM | message detail
Whats the opinion on VC/Disega and ToV/Borderlands?
neonreaper | Posted 10/7/2010 7:46:58 AM | message detail
So what's more impressive? Melee getting 55% on FFX with Kingdom Hearts also in the poll, or Brawl getting 58% on MGS4 with both CoD4 and Fallout 3 in the poll?

Melee, unless you can convince me that the current gen is more popular in our polls than the PS2 gen.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/7/2010 7:47:32 AM | message detail
I think the consensus picks are Disgaea and Borderlands, though I'm going with Vesperia in the second match.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 8:04:46 AM | message detail

From: neonreaper | #019
So what's more impressive? Melee getting 55% on FFX with Kingdom Hearts also in the poll, or Brawl getting 58% on MGS4 with both CoD4 and Fallout 3 in the poll?

Melee, unless you can convince me that the current gen is more popular in our polls than the PS2 gen.


I'm only picking Melee because I like it more, but I fully expect Brawl to win this contest.
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Colegreen_c12 | Posted 10/7/2010 8:04:55 AM | message detail
Hmm
what about WEWY/P4 and MGS2/SOTC
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 8:06:52 AM | message detail
Oh and neon, it's funny you ask that: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3224

That was two years ago before PS3 and 360 took off here, too.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 8:14:43 AM | message detail
How funny would it be if Twilight Princess (or even Galaxy) beat the Smash winner?
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quicksilvver | Posted 10/7/2010 8:33:09 AM | message detail
what about WEWY/P4 and MGS2/SOTC

SOTC >> MGS2 for the upset.

also, lol TWEWY
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Ketsui
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/7/2010 9:29:54 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #024
How funny would it be if Twilight Princess (or even Galaxy) beat the Smash winner?


Galaxy winning against Brawl would be the best thing ever. If a game deserves Game of the Decade Galaxy qualifies.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 9:38:41 AM | message detail
Yeah, I just have this sinking feeling Brawl will see no resistance at all other than Melee, and I'm getting the feeling it's a lot stronger than Melee (relatively). If it makes the final, voters will go "FINAL FANTASY ALWAYS WINS" and disallow FFX from doing any damage.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 9:39:11 AM | message detail
Oh and Kanz, side note: Blind Guardian's new album is seriously their best one yet. Not an overreaction, either, since it's been a bit since release.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/7/2010 9:42:26 AM | message detail
I forgot to mention how ironic it is for Metroid Prime and Mario Galaxy to have 1 seeds while Brawl and Twilight Princess don't. I also have to think that Prime only has a 1 seed because of Other M being released during the nomination period.

BTW here's a cool Game of the Decade contest: http://www.crispygamer.com/features/2009-12-01/game-of-the-decade-peoples-choice-vote.aspx
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2010 9:42:27 AM | message detail
WHO'S READY FOR SOME CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE BIG THREE?!


MGS2 got 37.74% on FFX without KH, then 41.61% on FFX with KH. That means FFX-with-KH gets 45.35% on FFX.

FFX-with-KH got 45.12% on SSBM last contest. If measuring through MGS2 can be trusted, FFX gets 49.75% on SSBM (worth noting D2 was a third RPG in their match). SSBM beat FFX a little worse than that in 2004, plus I'd rather have Nintendo's x-factor than Square's -- especially in a championship match. FFX most certainly has a chance and it will be close, but SSBM should remain the favorite...and that's assuming it beats SSBB first. Should SSBB prove stronger, that's going to be even less favorable for FFX...

...and SSBB can look more powerful, but it depends on the perspective. GTA:VC got 36.79% on FFX-with-KH; measuring through MGS2 again, GTA:VC gets 33.37% on FFX. GTA4 got 35.77% on SSBB in the first round, so regardless of what you think of the debate between GTA:VC and GTA4, FFX is probably the favorite on that point...but in the next round, GTA4 got 30.44% on SSBB-with-SMG, making it undoubtedly the favorite if you use that poll instead...

...furthermore, MGS4 got 47.63% on FFX. Compare that to when MGS4 got 42.03% on SSBB in the only poll they had without other Nintendo-games. People may bring up FO3/CoD4 LFF'd it some, I find that to be a stretch since they're two FPS-style games of different genres...and even if you do believe it, do you want to say they hurt MGS4 as much as KH hurt FFX? If they did hurt MGS4 that much, SSBB still comes out with the edge against FFX in this comparison. SSBB also got 49.93% on MGS4 despite the other Wii-staple LoZ:TP sharing the poll.

I'll also throw this out there: SSBB-with-LoZ:OoT got 44.74% on FFX. Since there are still people who would take SSBM > RBY, it's worth bringing up that SSBM got 41.04% on RBY in their poll shared by LoZ:OoT...and if you think SSBM > FFX, SSBM-with-RBY-and-LoZ:OoT got 37.81% on FFX. Point is, people have taken SSBM to cover significantly bigger gaps by blaming LoZ:OoT than SSBB would need to beat FFX.

The biggest scare about taking SSBB is Nintendo's recent hate-wave coming its way since we've seen BGE2. As red sox has mentioned before, if you compare the two GotD-polls, you'll see a large drop-off in the people who voted for Wii-games; it went from 32.26% for LoZ:TP/SMG in early 2008 to 23.65% for SSBB/LoZ:TP/SMG early this year. That's pretty huge, and the continuous drop the Wii has made in SotY-polls doesn't help its case either...

...then again, Nintendo-games were still treated very well with nominations and it didn't keep SSBB from getting a high seed anyway. Nominations =/= strength, but so far the only knock against it contest-wise is that it didn't get as many nominations as SSBM/FFX and FFX did better against GTA:VC than SSBB did against GTA4 in one of their two polls. Pretty solid.


I'll go SSBB > SSBM >= FFX, though I don't know if SSBB could get more than 52% on FFX...and this pretty much ignores the growing anger toward Nintendo seen in those GotD-polls and SotY-polls. They may be foreshadowing, but the Wii was already catching strong hell for a year at the time of BGE2 last year and Wii-nominations look pretty fine this contest. The championship should be fun!
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/7/2010 9:56:44 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #028
Oh and Kanz, side note: Blind Guardian's new album is seriously their best one yet. Not an overreaction, either, since it's been a bit since release.


...

...

...Downloading now. Seriously hyped, and I was only tentatively thinking about it before.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/7/2010 10:02:10 AM | message detail
Talked about doing this a few days ago, and now I'm doing it. Introducing my Odds to Win project.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56666521

Should be interesting once we hit some games where the winner isn't completely obvious.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2010 10:12:34 AM | message detail
I think Melee/Brawl/FFX have just about even odds to win it to me. The thing I'm concerned about with Melee against FFX is another dropoff for Nintendo since 2009. It's clear something big happened in 2008, but it's not clear whether Nintendo had already bottomed by BGE2 or whether it continued falling afterward.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
Big Bob | Posted 10/7/2010 10:14:08 AM | message detail
Okay, what are the odds Tony Hawk manages to beat Fire Emblem? I've seen people compare TH to Madden, but that's about the only argument against it...
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/7/2010 10:15:18 AM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #034
Okay, what are the odds Tony Hawk manages to beat Fire Emblem? I've seen people compare TH to Madden, but that's about the only argument against it...


Decent actually. It has a real nostalgia factor.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 10/7/2010 10:15:56 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #033
I think Melee/Brawl/FFX have just about even odds to win it to me. The thing I'm concerned about with Melee against FFX is another dropoff for Nintendo since 2009. It's clear something big happened in 2008, but it's not clear whether Nintendo had already bottomed by BGE2 or whether it continued falling afterward.


I'd actually bet on an INCREASE, myself. We haven't seen Ninty entities in real matches since the E3, have we?
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LordOfDabu | Posted 10/7/2010 10:21:23 AM | message detail
Oh wow, I didn't know edge of time was out yet.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2010 10:22:32 AM | message detail
Tony Hawk 2 is something that's probably going to be too anti-voted to beat anything of note.

Now, whether or not Fire Emblem is strong enough to be 'of note' is debatable.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2010 10:30:57 AM | message detail
Tony Hawk's an iffy one. Put its match on GameSpot or any other major gaming site, and I'll take THPS2. FE should be weak anyway, so it may not be a bad idea to take it here, too; it was doubled by FFTA in 2004 while losing easily to Disgaea last year (with SSBM/LoZ:WW in the poll, to be fair). That said, THPS's one of the first few examples of a series that got over-saturated and caught some hate for that back in the day, plus it's by Activision; their image then was much better than their image now, but I wouldn't count on it doing THPS2 any favors. More importantly, it's a sports game against a Nintendo-RPG...

...gotta side with Fire Emblem here, though THPS2 (and THPS3) were great back in the day.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/7/2010 10:35:38 AM | message detail
Why would THPS2 get anti-voted exactly?
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2010 10:36:04 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #033
I think Melee/Brawl/FFX have just about even odds to win it to me. The thing I'm concerned about with Melee against FFX is another dropoff for Nintendo since 2009. It's clear something big happened in 2008, but it's not clear whether Nintendo had already bottomed by BGE2 or whether it continued falling afterward.


I agree, it's hard to tell if the issue escalated or declined any since then. For what it's worth, Nintendo killed the other systems at E3 this year:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3945
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2010 10:36:26 AM | message detail
Oversaturated sports series.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 10:36:39 AM | message detail
And you people call yourselves Blind Guardian fans.

On a serious note about that album, it has no bad songs on it. Normally they put filler crap or some bad cover, but not this one. They really went all-out with it. Valkyries is the only song I rated 3/5 on iTunes, everything else I gave a 4 or 5 including giving 5 stars to 6 of the first 7 songs. Sacred Worlds is the best song of them all and it's first, but the rest of the album is pretty good as well.

Point being: If you like Blind Guardian, power metal or even just feel like trying something new, check that album out.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 10:37:11 AM | message detail
I picked FE because it's a tossup match and I like it more. Problem solved.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2010 10:38:36 AM | message detail
The Fire Emblem name vs a sports game.. that's not even a real sport.
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Dr. Football swept me.
Intanos VI | Posted 10/7/2010 10:39:14 AM | message detail
Can UC2 beat SA2?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2010 10:39:45 AM | message detail
Pro Wrestling isn't a real sport and I'm taking No Mercy over Path of Radiance!

....it is my one fanboy pick this contest. I refuse to change it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2010 10:41:18 AM | message detail
Heh, I may as well take FE in that match too if I think it can beat Tony Hawk.
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Dr. Football swept me.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2010 10:42:14 AM | message detail
You think that, but then you'll see the match pic of Austin giving Ike a stunner and you'll know you're doomed!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 10:44:29 AM | message detail
I am *the* biggest Fire Emblem fan here and I'm practically guaranteeing Path of Radiance has no chance against No Mercy. I remember how massive No Mercy was, and to this day people still think it's the best wrestling game ever. Tony Hawk Whatever is just one more game in an oversaturated series no one cares about.
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