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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 912

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Xcarvenger | Posted 10/6/2010 5:13:02 AM | message detail
no, kotor will be the ff9 downfall
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paulg235 | Posted 10/6/2010 5:26:37 AM | message detail
lol FF9 losing to weaksauce/low-midcarders.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/6/2010 5:49:49 AM | message detail
I thought CC was received quite well. And it's not the same as Tingle's Rupee Land: Ocarina of Time, unless that game were intimately connected to OOT's story more than to Zelda in general. Besides, A Requiem for Dark Link: Ocarina of Time would do fine.

FFXII did look decently strong against TP and HL2, so CC probably isn't a wise pick, and I'll probably have to change that.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 6:04:32 AM | message detail
CC was well recieved which is all the more reason why one would be crazy not to take it over FFXII if one thinks Dark Link is a near elite.
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Intanos VI | Posted 10/6/2010 6:36:47 AM | message detail
How's RE4s strength against Final Fantasy games?
Is Fallout 3 stronger than Metroid Prime?
Is SSBB really strong enough to beat Twilight Princess?
Is Majoras Mask strong enough to beat MGS4?

Only really the last 8 causing me trouble except for WW vs Oblivion.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/6/2010 6:37:59 AM | message detail

From: The Real Truth | #140
So I was thinking earlier, why is everyone (I thought like this too) such a huge fan of Half-Life 2 doing well here. These are 1vs1 matches now, not FFA matches with 4 games. Half-Life 2 was nearly beaten by FFXII before. In each of HL2's matches, it was the game that stood out from everything else. While it looked like a respectable game every time, I don't see any reason for an obviously "Half-Life 2 domination fest." This site still mostly doesn't care about PC games, and that's what HL2 really is, even if it's on other systems. I'm sure it will do well, but how well?

In fact, the only match it really did well in was the first match, where it had to compete with FF12 for second place. Yeah, FF12 where it almost lost. You remember, the game that people don't like. There was also no other game similar to it in the poll. The next match, with RE4, TP, and KH2, all of which are console based games, and not similar to Half-Life 2 at all, except maybe RE4, all have more than 10,000 votes on it.

So uh, yeah. Maybe the first few rounds being only 12 hours, as well as getting a number 2 seed will help it, but I now have it losing to God of War which did really well, and likely would have done better had it not been paired with San Andreas.


HL2 got 40% on TP. FF12 is not as weak as everyone thinks. Hell, according to the stats, FF12 should be an easy favorite against Portal considering HL2 and FO3 are pretty close together, and FF12 is closer to HL2 than Portal is to FO3.

Gotta switch that one in my bracket.

Also, am I crazy if I'm considering taking Halo > Sunshine > Halo 3? Or do the stats have Halo 3 being the stronger of the two?
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/6/2010 6:44:01 AM | message detail
Let's see, Halo got 33% on Melee, while Halo 3 got 34% on MGS4.

Doesn't seem like the two are that far apart, which means it'd be a stretch for Sunshine to be in the middle. Just gotta decide where Sunshine would fit there!

Leaning toward Halo > Halo 3 > Sunshine now. Don't know if I could see Sunshine avoiding a doubling from MGS4.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/6/2010 6:45:32 AM | message detail
Halo and Halo 3 both did so bad last time. But Halo 3 is on Xbox 360, which GameFAQs actually LIKES, so I don't think it will have that stigma and can at least make it to round 3(or, at the very least, beat SMS, which GameFAQs STILL doesn't like).
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/6/2010 6:45:56 AM | message detail
Also, ToS got 40% on MGS3.

HL2's looking better and better to win the division.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/6/2010 6:50:14 AM | message detail
I have HL2 over MP1, and in doing so that means I have FF12 getting past Portal/ME1. If I believe in one game's power, I have to believe in the other. I think it will fall a little short to FO3 though.

With so many of the debated matches being a coinflip, I'm feeling more confident about my picks.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/6/2010 6:59:47 AM | message detail
I'm starting to have my doubts about TF2. Fable does well in most polls, while TF2 got doubled by a possibly-LFFed Galaxy.

Switching to Fable for this one.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/6/2010 7:00:04 AM | message detail
I would like to know why people are so confident with FFX being the victor. The last time FFX and a Smash game went 1v1, FFX lost, and I don't see the gap closing so much that the result will be reversed.
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transience | Posted 10/6/2010 7:02:16 AM | message detail
lol KH
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/6/2010 7:23:00 AM | message detail
I think the reason so many people pick FFX is that FFX is at least guaranteed to be in the finals, barring any huge upsets.
No one is sure which Smash game will win the big match in the division finals, so while it's a lock that a Smash game makes the finals, it's a tossup which one it will be.

I'll just assume that there's a 40% chance that FFX wins it, and a 60% chance that a Smash game wins. This still leaves each smash game with only 30% winning chances, which is why FFX is the safer choice.

Also, fanboy pick and stuff.
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2010 7:25:39 AM | message detail
How's RE4s strength against Final Fantasy games?

Should be enough to beat everything but FFX in this bracket.

Is Fallout 3 stronger than Metroid Prime?

Most definitely, unless you think MP is underrated in the last contest. Consider that New Vegas is coming out soon as well.

Is SSBB really strong enough to beat Twilight Princess?

It did it once already, can't see why it can't repeat

Is Majoras Mask strong enough to beat MGS4?

I think MGS4 (and MGS as a whole) has fallen off since it's had nothing in the last 2 years. I think MM can take that one. The bigger threat is Pokemon Crystal.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 7:26:57 AM | message detail
I'm surprised we've seen so little Pokemon discussion, given GSC's status as the probable favorite to reach the semis from its quarter of the bracket. If it reaches the semifinals, are bets are off, especially since it won't be up against a Smash game there.
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transience | Posted 10/6/2010 7:29:27 AM | message detail
Pokemon discussion is slammed shut because of how badly RBY crushed Majora. MGS3 vs. Pokemon should be the discussion though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:31:20 AM | message detail
The only thing worth discussing about Pokemon is how much it has boosted since last contest.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 7:34:15 AM | message detail
I mean Pokemon discussion going the other way, like it possibly reaching the finals and/or winning the whole thing. It really got the perfect path to do so; if it beats Majora, it'll obviously take Wind Waker. If it beats those two games, I doubt MGS3/4 can do enough to stop its momentum, and then it'll have a semifinal showdown against FFX. I think a lot of Board 8ers (perhaps a majority) have it reaching FFX, but I haven't seen one person who has given it the actual win.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/6/2010 7:35:01 AM | message detail
down with Pokemon
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
transience | Posted 10/6/2010 7:36:52 AM | message detail
I don't see why Pokemon would have momentum when other things wouldn't. I'm far less scared of Pokemon's momentum than Half-Life 2's. it's legit now, there's no reason to bandwagon it.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:37:19 AM | message detail
Unless we think FFX is weaker than we thought taking GSC to win that implies RBY would give FFVII quite the scare and I don't think many people are prepare to say that.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:37:30 AM | message detail
It depends where you think MGS4 (or MGS3) is now. In the last contest MGS1 beat GSC 37.08% to 32.45% with FFT in the poll, in a 24 hour match. This time around, GSC will take on its MGS opponent in a day match, where it is stronger, and MGS is weaker. Is it enough to swing things in its favour? Depends how strong MGS3/MGS4 is.

I'm sticking with MGS4 > GSC, though.

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Intanos VI | Posted 10/6/2010 7:38:21 AM | message detail
Pokemon Crystal to do well? Emerald knocked out by GTAIV first round and Platinum to be beat by Brawl?
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:39:00 AM | message detail

From: Intanos VI | #174
Platinum to be beat by Brawl?


Not happening.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 7:40:19 AM | message detail
Did we all forget about Charizard putting up 46.5% on Mario? Pokemon momentum is the scariest thing around and has been for the past three years. If you have GSC beating both Zeldas, then you really ought to have it beating MGS3/4 in a day match, and that means you have it in the semifinals vs. Nintendo's arch enemy (oh noes) on a five-match winning streak. I just figured it should be getting some support there. Maybe I'll roll the dice.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/6/2010 7:41:17 AM | message detail
Yoblazer you sicken me.

I bet you'd take Pikachu to beat Snake.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
transience | Posted 10/6/2010 7:42:56 AM | message detail
Charizard was a fresh entrant that was threatening the status quo, of course it was going to boost like that. Pokemon GSC doesn't have any of that. it's not a Pokemon thing as much as an underdog thing. Pokemon could beat FFX out of strength but I don't think it's going to go from 51% on MGS3 to 58% on FFX or anything. that just doesn't make sense.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:43:00 AM | message detail
Like Starcraft and L-Block Charizard had a series of fortunate events that led to his explosion, the same isn't here for GSC.

Had the contest occured two months ago maybe then.
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Kamekguy | Posted 10/6/2010 7:43:36 AM | message detail
Wait why is Metroid Prime expected to do well? I have never once seen any of Samus's games pull out an impressive performance - Metroid skated by Pac-Man and beat, um, Contra I guess, Super Metroid did alright but Super Mario Kart of all things caught up to it, and Metroid Prime itself has never impressed me.

Is the consensus really that it beats DMC3, which stopped Dante from being a midcarder and made him a... high midcarder? Samus herself just has always felt like Kirby in that she appeals to everyone simultaneously, not so much her games.

Also my bracket is horribly overestimating Resident Evil 5, what's the consensus for when it bows out? I have it getting to DMC3 and feel horrible about it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:46:37 AM | message detail
Is the consensus really that it beats DMC3, which stopped Dante from being a midcarder and made him a... high midcarder? Samus herself just has always felt like Kirby in that she appeals to everyone simultaneously, not so much her games.

This is more about our lack of faith in DMC then our faith in MP. DMC flopped pretty hard in the series contest plus action games don't normally perform that well and besides Metroid Prime wasn't that bad once you take a step back.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 7:48:01 AM | message detail

From: transience | #178
Charizard was a fresh entrant that was threatening the status quo, of course it was going to boost like that.


I think that's hindsight. No one was expecting such a performance from Charizard even after he beat Bowser. Remember that Mario had just gotten 58.4% on Mega Man, and most people thought Charizard would do worse, not 5% better.

Pokemon could beat FFX out of strength


Sure, agreed, but I haven't seen anyone take the pick or even bring it up.

From: charmander6000 | #179
Had the contest occured two months ago maybe then.


What was two months ago?
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:48:54 AM | message detail
What was two months ago?

One month until the release of Pokemon BW in Japan.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:51:03 AM | message detail
I think that's hindsight. No one was expecting such a performance from Charizard even after he beat Bowser. Remember that Mario had just gotten 58.4% on Mega Man, and most people thought Charizard would do worse, not 5% better.

Just because no one expected it doesn't mean we can't explain what happened. A lot of people still thought Link was going to win the contest despite what L-Block did in the semi-finals.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:51:39 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #179
Like Starcraft and L-Block Charizard had a series of fortunate events that led to his explosion, the same isn't here for GSC.

Had the contest occured two months ago maybe then.


If you ever compare Charizard to either of those two flukes again, I'll find you.

Charizard drew an excellent match day to face Bowser, yes, but don't you dare compare his legitimate feats to those two stuffed ****s.
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transcience | Posted 10/6/2010 7:51:40 AM | message detail
well I guess my question is *why* would Pokemon randomly boost at the end? that would suggest outside interference or a bandwagon that was brought on by a reason. I just don't see either of these.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 7:55:12 AM | message detail
If you ever compare Charizard to either of those two flukes again, I'll find you.

Charizard drew an excellent match day to face Bowser, yes, but don't you dare compare his legitimate feats to those two stuffed ****s.


How can you not say that Charizard was damn lucky to survive and have the release of a Pokemon game on the same day against a beatable opponent?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 7:57:36 AM | message detail

From: transcience | #186
well I guess my question is *why* would Pokemon randomly boost at the end?


Because it's Pokemon. I brought it up Charizard, but heck, Pikachu put up 44.5% on Snake in a night match. That might have been legitimately stronger than Charizard's performance, and it came from an established contest entrant who had absolutely no reason to look that good (he'd handily beat Squall and crush Fox), sprite match or not.

And I really don't think it would need an enormous boost to beat FFX, nor do I think its boost would be sudden. It could gain momentum, just like many Poke-entries have done over the years.
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neonreaper | Posted 10/6/2010 8:02:34 AM | message detail
I think MGS4 (and MGS as a whole) has fallen off since it's had nothing in the last 2 years.

we can just write this off as "black turtle post", right?
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2010 8:04:47 AM | message detail
I'm still not convinced Crystal beats Majora's Mask. If it does, it will likely get to FFX, but something doesn't sit well there.

Also, why would Platinum beat Brawl, when D/P lost handily to Galaxy, which was destroyed by Brawl?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 8:04:53 AM | message detail
I don't agree entirely, but I don't think MGS4 will look as good as it did in all those early 2009 polls. It was riding a huge emotional high from series fans who finally got closure, and it seems like a lot of the site clung to it as hardcore gaming's hope against Nintendo's evil ways. Or something. That's why I have MGS3 beating it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 8:08:04 AM | message detail
Pokemon has always looked good in the sprite round relative to other rounds. Pokemon is also no stranger to lucky bracket placements. Such as Tidus/Vivi and Cloud/Squall/Sora.
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2010 8:11:32 AM | message detail
neonreaper
Posted 10/6/2010 8:02:34 AM
message detail

I think MGS4 (and MGS as a whole) has fallen off since it's had nothing in the last 2 years.

we can just write this off as "black turtle post", right?


It's pretty asinine to think MGS will be as strong as it was in the 2009 contest, especially MGS4. How much weaker the series is is definitely up for debate, but it's certainly enough that MGS4/MGS3 is debateable, and the winner of the bottom division definitely has a good chance of beating MGS in the Elite 8
Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/6/2010 8:14:09 AM | message detail
Um, are we just assuming '08 games are gonna be weaker than they were in '09? O.o

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LOLContests | Posted 10/6/2010 8:22:12 AM | message detail
I think the reason so many people pick FFX is that FFX is at least guaranteed to be in the finals, barring any huge upsets.
No one is sure which Smash game will win the big match in the division finals, so while it's a lock that a Smash game makes the finals, it's a tossup which one it will be.

I'll just assume that there's a 40% chance that FFX wins it, and a 60% chance that a Smash game wins. This still leaves each smash game with only 30% winning chances, which is why FFX is the safer choice.


That doesn't really make much sense. If you don't predict the winner you're not gonna win the contest. You don't get half points like in 4 ways. Plus, even if FFX does win, the winner's not gonna be someone who picked the wrong Smash game to make it there.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/6/2010 8:25:30 AM | message detail
Yeah, you won't win prizes unless you pick the last two right.. might as well go for broke at that point. Pick what you think will win.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/6/2010 8:45:32 AM | message detail
I'm having fun with the "I'm not listening to anyone" strategy this year, although I'm pretty worried about God of War vs Half-Life 2. I have this weird feeling GoW got screwed by San Andreas's presence and is waiting for a coming-out party this year, but there's also the whole "overrated due to a close first round match" problem. Ask Liquid Snake and about half of Division 128 how well that works out. There's Kratos always, always disappointing in contests despite having good things set up for him every year. The only character he's ever beaten is Tails. TAILS!

People keep bringing up HL2 getting 40% on Twilight Princess twice in its defense, or something. Oblivion scored 39% in round 3, in a much more important match. Does Oblivion really beat God of War 1v1?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/6/2010 8:47:23 AM | message detail
Then there's this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2801

It's not all that inconceivable GoW and DMC fold in the face of GTA and MGS.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 8:48:00 AM | message detail
Yes. Listen to me on this one.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/6/2010 8:48:31 AM | message detail
It's not all that inconceivable GoW and DMC fold in the face of GTA and MGS.

Yes it is. GTA won't be beating any potentially strong game in this contest.
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