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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 912

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charmander6000 | Posted 10/5/2010 8:33:22 PM | message detail
Also how many people think people will take the title of the contest too literally like the series contest? If it's significant it could spell bad news for some of the newer games.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/5/2010 8:34:55 PM | message detail
StarCraft misses the contest by 2 years.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/5/2010 8:36:16 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #100
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3500

HMMMMMM...


39% on TP isn't bad. Pretty much what Half-Life 2 did on it.

I think WW will have this one, though. Oblivion will impress, but it won't actually be close to winning. 45% sounds about right, to be honest.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/5/2010 8:38:26 PM | message detail
Hmm, that's interesting. Oblivion got 44% and then 47% on MGS3. Even using the 44%, that puts it around 38-40% on Melee/Brawl by my estimation. Hard to tell where Wind Waker is, but that looks pretty open between Oblivion and Wind Waker.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2010 8:41:47 PM | message detail
I was thinking of taking the Oblivion upset, too, but then I remembered Melee is a terrible game for Wind Waker to get saddled with.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/5/2010 8:42:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, Melee was the worst possible game for WW to be in the same poll with other than OOT probably.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
transience | Posted 10/5/2010 8:54:10 PM | message detail
I like a lot of the WRPGs out there. KOTOR could give FF9 a fight, Morrowind has a good chance vs. WC3, Fallout 3 obviously, I think Mass Effect could give Portal/FF12 a fight, Oblivion over Wind Waker.. something is going to happen with those games. they're just more popular than JRPGs right now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 8:55:19 PM | message detail
I don't really think KOTOR would beat FFIX. I have a hard time seeing FFIX lose to Halo or even come that close to doing so.

But maybe I'm wrong. Or maybe it's just being too used to NintenSquare dominance.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/5/2010 8:55:21 PM | message detail
Finished filling out my bracket.

Sleepers:

Fallout 3 (Semifinals)
Super Mario Sunshine (Division Finals)
Final Fantasy XII (Division Finals)
Kingdom Hearts II (Division Finals)

Ultimate winner is Final Fantasy X > Brawl.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2010 8:58:35 PM | message detail

From: transience | #107
I like a lot of the WRPGs out there. KOTOR could give FF9 a fight, Morrowind has a good chance vs. WC3, Fallout 3 obviously, I think Mass Effect could give Portal/FF12 a fight, Oblivion over Wind Waker.. something is going to happen with those games. they're just more popular than JRPGs right now.


Which is exactly why Borderlands will beat Tales of Vesperia.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/5/2010 9:00:21 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #108
I don't really think KOTOR would beat FFIX. I have a hard time seeing FFIX lose to Halo or even come that close to doing so.

But maybe I'm wrong. Or maybe it's just being too used to NintenSquare dominance.


I agree with you. Not sure how much stock everyone wants to put in their match against Ocarina, but FFIX got 59% on Half-Life despite Chrono Cross in the poll. Heck, it still managed 44% on Starcraft in Round 2 despite a stronger FF in the poll kicking its butt. KotOR can't deal with that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 9:00:36 PM | message detail
Or the fact that Vesperia is a Tales game not named Symphonia.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/5/2010 9:01:50 PM | message detail
Which is exactly why Borderlands will beat Tales of Vesperia.

You don't need much of a reason to be stronger than ToV
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Xuxon | Posted 10/5/2010 9:01:58 PM | message detail
Morrowind isn't the favorite over WC3? also BG2 has a decent shot.
transience | Posted 10/5/2010 9:02:53 PM | message detail
yeah I have zero idea what to do with Baldur's Gate. I can't even hazard a guess. so much has changed since Baldur's Gate was relevant.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 9:03:32 PM | message detail
I picked SoA because it's one of my favorites and it's the higher seed.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/5/2010 9:04:32 PM | message detail
I think Morrowind has a chance against WC3. Morrowind had a good performance for a third place game in round 1 last contest and WC3 is easily going to be weaker than World of Warcraft.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2010 9:06:08 PM | message detail
Luster, you were a boss in the chat earlier.

Allen: "I think someone's tiebreaker is 125689."

Luster: "Wow, what a coincidence. My tiebreaker is 125689."
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/5/2010 9:19:31 PM | message detail
The exact tiebreaker he said was 125842, which is what I had. Close, but not quite what I had.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2010 9:22:27 PM | message detail
...

*facedesk*
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/5/2010 9:23:48 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #119
The exact tiebreaker he said was 125842, which is what I had. Close, but not quite what I had.


wut
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/5/2010 9:29:09 PM | message detail
Ulti thought Bacon guessed 125689 as for what my tiebreaker was, but he said 125842 when I looked back in my chat logs.
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/5/2010 9:29:52 PM | message detail
I think he meant close as in the numbers Ulti originally put?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/5/2010 9:31:03 PM | message detail
Correct.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/5/2010 9:37:49 PM | message detail
I inserted 150000 as the tiebreaker for no reason.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/5/2010 9:51:44 PM | message detail
Assuming HL2 and Fallout 3 meet.... which wins? I automatically assumed Fallout 3 was stronger because it won three rounds, but then I realized HL2 did pretty well in the last contest. Zelda:TP basically 1.5'd HL2, while Fallout 3 had a bit lower proportion against the stronger SSBB. It appears that it will be a night match; this gives HL2 at least one edge.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/5/2010 10:02:32 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56648957

Can you guys let me know if I made any crazy picks yet? Haven't had time to follow anyone else's bracket or the common consensus yet.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/5/2010 10:13:49 PM | message detail
I'm picking Fallout 3 partially to be safe and partially because New Vegas is coming out soon before.
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I have no idea how Metroid: Other M got any scores lower than 60%.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 12:11:59 AM | message detail
So what do we think about FFXII/Crisis Core? I see a lot of people picking Crisis Core on the board. This feels like a perfect trap match, and I applaud Bacon for setting it up. How much stock will people really put into that "FFVII" subtitle?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 12:16:09 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3363

Probably not much. I doubt Tingle's game would be much more popular if it were called Tingle's Rupee Land: Ocarina of Time. And aside from the ending and making Zack look even cooler, wasn't Crisis Core received as a pretty average game, itself?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/6/2010 12:18:09 AM | message detail
It was a joke, Luster. Jesus.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 12:19:10 AM | message detail
I was just kinda surprised that so many people were jumping on the Crisis Core > FFXII bandwagon. I mean, when I saw the match, I thought, "Huh, that's interesting," and at first glance, I wanted to pick Crisis Core.

But I jumped on the FFXII > Portal bandwagon instead!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 12:19:28 AM | message detail
Remember: Luster is the Undertaker of Board 8. No-sells for all!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/6/2010 12:26:25 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #132
But I jumped on the FFXII > Portal bandwagon instead!


I have the same. The XII/HL2 match with TP looked legit it enough, and XII was worth 48% on HL2 there; nearly equal. Is Portal nearly equal to Half-Life 2? Don't wanna bet on it myself.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/6/2010 12:36:46 AM | message detail
It was a joke, Luster. Jesus.

Okay.

So what do we think about FFXII/Crisis Core? I see a lot of people picking Crisis Core on the board. This feels like a perfect trap match, and I applaud Bacon for setting it up. How much stock will people really put into that "FFVII" subtitle?

I picked FFXII, despite it being the weakest FF console game in this bracket. Since most handheld games are weak on this site except for Pokemon or Link's Awakening, it may be enough to allow a low-tier FF game to beat an FF handheld game.


Twilight Princess/Kingdom Hearts is another match that scares me, after coming across this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3491

Twilight Princess didn't beat KH2 by a whole lot, so if the original KH proves to be stronger than KH2 when they meet up in the round prior to reaching TP, then I have a need to be concerned by a TP/KH match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 12:44:52 AM | message detail
I hate KH/KH2 for that very reason. Part of me wants to pick the winner to beat TP, but I would literally kick myself in the balls (somehow) if the winner of that match beat TP and I picked the wrong winner.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 10/6/2010 1:12:58 AM | message detail
No Grand cash Prize? Aww. I guess you could just sell all of that stuff. lol.
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/6/2010 1:15:35 AM | message detail
Also, I'm totally just taking Ninja Gaiden > Halo in round 1 just because Ryu H. came through for me last year and upset Master Chief! And Halo always disappoints of course.
FFDragon | Posted 10/6/2010 1:17:21 AM | message detail
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/6/2010 2:36:00 AM | message detail
So I was thinking earlier, why is everyone (I thought like this too) such a huge fan of Half-Life 2 doing well here. These are 1vs1 matches now, not FFA matches with 4 games. Half-Life 2 was nearly beaten by FFXII before. In each of HL2's matches, it was the game that stood out from everything else. While it looked like a respectable game every time, I don't see any reason for an obviously "Half-Life 2 domination fest." This site still mostly doesn't care about PC games, and that's what HL2 really is, even if it's on other systems. I'm sure it will do well, but how well?

In fact, the only match it really did well in was the first match, where it had to compete with FF12 for second place. Yeah, FF12 where it almost lost. You remember, the game that people don't like. There was also no other game similar to it in the poll. The next match, with RE4, TP, and KH2, all of which are console based games, and not similar to Half-Life 2 at all, except maybe RE4, all have more than 10,000 votes on it.

So uh, yeah. Maybe the first few rounds being only 12 hours, as well as getting a number 2 seed will help it, but I now have it losing to God of War which did really well, and likely would have done better had it not been paired with San Andreas.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/6/2010 2:54:05 AM | message detail
Here are the round 1 matches that I'm currently feeling bad about about. Bold are my current picks

Warcraft 3 vs. Morrowind
Golden Sun vs. R&C:UYA
TWEWY vs. Dead Rising
Persona 4 vs. Braid
Chrono Cross vs. Dragon Quest VIII

What is the stat topic's opinion on those matches?
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/6/2010 3:04:51 AM | message detail
I'm more confident about KH2 > KH1 than I am about Melee > Brawl or MGS4 > MGS3.

In round one of 08 KH1 got 39% against Vice City, Metroid Prime and Paper Mario. I have little respect for any of those games' strength. KH2 got 33.6% up against Resident Evil 4, Shadow of the Colossus and Gears of War. I'd take RE4 to stomp Vice City, SotC to be at least close to MP (and I figure MP is weaker in four ways than 1v1s) and GoW to be at least close to Paper Mario. So it comes down to how big the gap between RE4 and VC really is. Next round VC would lose soundly to MGS2, while RE4 would prove it could hang with TP. That's a big enough gap for me.

Surprised at how favoured MGS4 is over MGS3. It did do much better against RE4 in the QFs than MGS3 did in the division final, but I think most would expect the fans of the series to favour MGS3, and the PS2's a much more owned/played console than the PS3. Also, 3DS boost!

Also, anyone biting on GTA3 > HL2?

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Xcarvenger | Posted 10/6/2010 3:13:41 AM | message detail
Warcraft is more night-oriented, while Morrowind is more day, so yeah since this is a toss-up, I go with what time of day the match will play, which is a day match!

Golden Sun has a pretty legit strength if previous polls are any indication, while R&C is pretty much untested. Most people go with GS though, and some even brave enough to take GS over San Andreas!

Dead Rising should be the favorite over cult JRPG TWEWY, thanks to the recent DR2 (and the first one reviews well too)

Braid and Persona 4 is a toss-up, but I'm leaning Persona because Braid is still an indie game and they don't tend to do well here. Just look at World of Goo and Cave Story in the vote-ins. Also this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3360. I think Persona can even give TWEWY a run for its money!

Chrono Cross is pretty much a lock imo. The hate actually isn't as big outside of board 8 trust me! And when has DQ done anything in one of these contests?

GTA3 > HL2 is not happening tbqh, because if there's one thing that can put up embarrassing performance more than Gordon Freeman, it is Grand Theft Auto. Also GTA tends to die during the day for some reasons.

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The Real Truth | Posted 10/6/2010 3:18:06 AM | message detail
I almost took GTA3 over HL2 with my change, but I think GTA3 is the weakest. WIth another GTA I'd take that.

And you pretty much went against what you said yourself. With MGS3/4 you're saying 3 should win even though 4 looks stronger, 3 is a "fan favorite." Then with KH/2 you're saying 2 should win because it looks stronger, but you don't consider it to be the fan favorite?

I took Kingdom Hearts (never even considered taking 2), but wasn't sure if I should take that or Twilight Princess. Ultimately went with KH like I said. I went with MGS4 because I think in a poll with the same games it would go MGS4 > 1 > 3 > 2. However, if MGS1 were here, I'd consider taking that instead.
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voltch | Posted 10/6/2010 3:24:17 AM | message detail
MGS3/MGS4 i feel is gonna be too close to call like SMW/SMB3, it swings one way for one match, but in another wooooo.
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ZFS | Posted 10/6/2010 4:37:53 AM | message detail
Mario freakin' Sunshine, man. No one votes for this over Halo, I will bet lots on this. Halo wins that one without much trouble.

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jonthomson | Posted 10/6/2010 4:41:43 AM | message detail
StarCraft misses the contest by 2 years.

and sc2 misses by six months, so rigged

bracket also has a disappointing lack of angry birds
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2010 4:56:48 AM | message detail
So what do we think about FFXII/Crisis Core? I see a lot of people picking Crisis Core on the board. This feels like a perfect trap match, and I applaud Bacon for setting it up. How much stock will people really put into that "FFVII" subtitle?

If anyone thinks Dark Link will be a near elite they better have picked CC to win is all I'm saying.
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Calintares | Posted 10/6/2010 5:08:56 AM | message detail
In terms of pure potential, I'd say this is probably the best bracket I can think of since at least 2005. The only major strike against it is setting up FFX/FFIX
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jonthomson | Posted 10/6/2010 5:10:43 AM | message detail
The only major strike against it is setting up FFX/FFIX

the only trouble is that civ 4 is going to crush ff9
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