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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 912

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/6/2010 10:07:08 PM | message detail
I'm taking TWEWY to take it almost on the sole basis of "we replaced this with SF4 and nearly all of our replacements were for the worst," though who knows really. It's an ugly four-pack with a real gem getting the worst of it.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/6/2010 10:08:05 PM | message detail
As a Persona fanboy, I'm taking P3 and 4 to win just out of principle.

Though I'd hardly call it a lock.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 10:11:32 PM | message detail
I have TWEWY, but that's a pure fanboy pick. All I know is that Braid has no chance.

I'm kinda curious to see how high of a percentage a game like Persona can put up on another game 1-on-1. The vote totals should bottom out on that one, too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 10:13:06 PM | message detail
And TWEWY didn't do too bad in either of its GOTY polls:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3350
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3360

Although I suppose it depends on what you think of LBP.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/6/2010 10:18:33 PM | message detail
Speaking of which, LBP got that PSP-remake not too long ago and LBP2 is looming around the corner. I used to argue if it wasn't for MGS4, it may have done better than GTA4 in the GotY-polls too...

...and now it's facing GTA3. I'm not taking the upset since it feels too much like a longshot at this point, but I don't think GTA3's 100% safe either.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 10:21:42 PM | message detail
I really don't know what to make of LBP. That's the only poll we have of it where it's not coupled up with MGS4.

Well, except for this, I guess: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3999

But that's for the series as a whole. Still, not too awful encouraging!

Regardless, I think LBP was one of those games that got a lot of hype around the time of its release, and then after the game came out, the hype died down when everyone realized it wasn't as great as they thought. And then it kinda got forgotten about.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:30:01 PM | message detail
Hi guys! Contest time! Guess who's back to the stats topic?! =)
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/6/2010 10:30:44 PM | message detail
hi
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 10:32:56 PM | message detail
What match will send ExTha into a blind rage of swearing and death threats this time, folks?!

STAY TUNED
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ZFS | Posted 10/6/2010 10:35:15 PM | message detail
But that's for the series as a whole. Still, not too awful encouraging!

Not much of a series, LBP.

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:35:17 PM | message detail
They weren't death threats, they were death WISHES, get it right.

And I maintain that my reaction was completely understandable given the circumstances.
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ZFS | Posted 10/6/2010 10:36:30 PM | message detail
uh oh what did i miss

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 10:37:43 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #462
uh oh what did i miss


Snake vs. Sephiroth last year made ExTha a little, how shall we say, "upset."
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:38:51 PM | message detail
My favorite character overcoming his toughest opponent would've won me the contest.

And he lost.

And you were all overjoyed.

I think it's perfectly reasonable that I wanted bad things to happen to you.
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ZFS | Posted 10/6/2010 10:39:05 PM | message detail
Whoa, Snake actually beat Sephiroth 1v1. That sounds like a time of celebration, not death wishes!

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:40:23 PM | message detail
Not when the match costs you a contest win, something I doubt I'll ever be that close to ever again!
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/6/2010 10:40:34 PM | message detail
ExTha, take pride in the fact that -- no matter how much your situation sucked -- we almost completely forgot about it when we heard about what happened to Palmer.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:41:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, I can always take solace in the fact that I'm not Palmer.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:43:01 PM | message detail
So anyways, general consensus is on FFX or SSBM winning the whole thing yeah?

How much of a risk would taking Twilight Princess to win it all be?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 10:43:59 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #469
So anyways, general consensus is on FFX or SSBM winning the whole thing yeah?

How much of a risk would taking Twilight Princess to win it all be?


FFX, Melee, or Brawl.

TP probably not a smart pick considering Brawl beat it pretty easily last time.
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/6/2010 10:44:08 PM | message detail
a bunch of people are taking Brawl
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:44:53 PM | message detail
I didn't make a bracket for the 4-way contest, or pay any attention to it at all, so this is good to know.

Damnit I wish I'd followed it now. My instincts for the character battle came from the 4-ways mostly.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:45:14 PM | message detail
Brawl will get obliterated by Melee. I am positive of this.
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/6/2010 10:45:56 PM | message detail
I wouldn't underestimate casual voters that (mostly) like Brawl better
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:46:45 PM | message detail
Yeah. Maybe it will be really close. I know I can't stand Brawl but I'm in the minority there for some reason(idiots).
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/6/2010 10:48:26 PM | message detail
I'm gonna have to look at the stats for a long time from the 4-way contest before I'll be any sort of happy with this.

God damn what a tough bracket. MGS3 v. MGS4? Brutal.

Also damnit why did No Mercy have to get a winnable match? Now there's no way I can pick against it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 10:51:56 PM | message detail
Real men pick No Mercy with no regrets!
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/6/2010 10:58:20 PM | message detail
Haha, I've got it too...I mean, WWF Wrestlemania beat SSB back in the day! How can't No Mercy beat Fire Emblem?!
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/6/2010 11:00:48 PM | message detail
So Melee is in a 12 hour match with Brawl and it's also a night match.
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ZFS | Posted 10/6/2010 11:03:06 PM | message detail
wrestling freakz

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/6/2010 11:04:51 PM | message detail
Yep...has anybody checked to see if a night match should really favor either one of them? I doubt there's any different, but maybe since SSBM's from the last generation and is one of the older games in the bracket, it might have a touch of an edge.

Not that something like that should decide SSBM/SSBB...though, to be picky, I wish this match would have been a day-match instead of a night-match. Let the ASV go wild.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/6/2010 11:08:31 PM | message detail
Looking at my trend charts, Brawl seems to have the better night vote, but I haven't checked to see what days of the week those matches occurred on, and I haven't really compared opponents.
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AppreciateTrees | Posted 10/6/2010 11:19:12 PM | message detail
WWF Wrestlemania beat SSB back in the day!

Seriously O_O;;
The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2010 3:05:57 AM | message detail
Hey lots of recent changes to my bracket

FFXII getting to RE4
Pokemon G/S/C getting to MGS4
Melee winning the contest (it's match with Brawl is at night, maybe that helps or something). Originally had FFX, and may change it back later, but I'll probably just leave it. Either game winning is okay, even if I'd prefer FFX personally.

I'm really excited to get this contest started. My biggest risks are taking the DMC games to do anything. The only problem is that DMC3 is the higher seed, and even that is only seeded at 9. It likely loses to Prime in a closer than most people think it will be match.

I have the original DMC losing to FF9. Round 2 will be a free win for whoever wins that match. Likely KotOR takes the match, but it's not going to be a huge split in percentage. KotOR is heavily overseeded here. Both games lose to FF9 either way.
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2010 3:09:39 AM | message detail
Yeah I think my bracket actually feels done now. Anyone else get that feeling? Where you finish your bracket but something feels off, so you change a few picks and it just feels right? Maybe I'll mess around with it more after I see some people arguing for a game.

I had to take both DMC games to win just because I love both games, and in a match where I'm fairly certain both games are not getting less than 40%, I feel obligated to have them winning.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/7/2010 3:23:33 AM | message detail
I think I'm settled on going for the following things:

Winner: Melee.
Half-Life 2 makes the QFs, possibly the SFs if it gets rallied.
Fallout 3 makes the SFs if HL2 isn't rallied.
Halo makes the division final, SMS can't beat Halo 3.
TP wins its division, beating KH2 in the final. KH/KH2 happens.
FFX makes the final.
GSC makes the SFs. Circs favour it too match to have it losing to MGS3/MGS4. Conveniently this means I don't lose so many points if I'm wrong about the MGS match.
Portal makes it to RE4.
Persona 4 makes the third round, unless Dead Rising turns out to be a hidden beast.
Civilization 4 edges Persona 3.
SFIV edges SA2.
MM9 edges Demon's Souls.
Path of Radiance edges WWF No Mercy.
Disgaea edges Valkyria Chronicles.
GTAIV edges RSE.
Mario Kart Wii edges PWAA.
Morrowind edges Warcraft III.
God of War edges ToS.

Things I'm still mulling over:

World of Warcraft's progression.
ToV/Borderlands.
RB2/Deus Ex.
TTYD/Gears of War
Golden Sun/San Andreas (only because I heard someone say it's on the day of Dark Dawn's release...)

Apologies for the long and fairly useless post. Just wanted to collect my thoughts on all the main areas of uncertainty.

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The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2010 3:27:14 AM | message detail
These are all the opposite of what I have

Civilization 4 edges Persona 3.
SFIV edges SA2.
MM9 edges Demon's Souls.
Path of Radiance edges WWF No Mercy.
Disgaea edges Valkyria Chronicles.

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The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2010 3:28:22 AM | message detail
Also I think having WoW lose to MGS3 in the 3rd round is a really safe pick.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/7/2010 4:04:07 AM | message detail
ToV/Borderlands.

Borderlands was an easy pick there, because Vesperia was almost tripled by Gears of War 2 in this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3356

For Vesperia, that's just terrible. Especially when you also consider the fact that Gears of War 2 would likely bomb hard in this contest after seeing the original Gears bomb in the last contest.
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Intanos VI | Posted 10/7/2010 4:24:58 AM | message detail
Every time i look at my bracket, i change it... FFXII switching to Portal and back and forth.

Oblivion or WW?

Argh!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 6:02:36 AM | message detail

From: The Real Truth | #479
So Melee is in a 12 hour match with Brawl and it's also a night match.


That's the problem I'm having. Brawl seems better at night, has the casuals behind it and is probably the favorite going in. My reservations against picking it, in some order: I prefer Melee, Melee feels like it was hidden behind Nintendo more than Brawl last year, Brawl historically holds up better against Nintendo than Melee does.

Then there's this. The only times the two weren't against Nintendo last year:

Melee : http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3499
Brawl: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3474
Brawl: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3501

Melee getting 55% on FFX with Kingdom Hearts also in the poll is crap compared to Brawl getting 58% on MGS4 with both CoD4 and Fallout 3 leeching votes from the latter. FFX and MGS4 aren't very far apart, and KH1 couldn't have leeched FFX all that much.

The only point in favor of Melee is Brawl getting 30% in the semifinal on Ocarina heads-up, while Melee got 26% with an RBY in the way.

It's close either way, and the winner probably wins the entire contest.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/7/2010 6:07:00 AM | message detail
Am I thinking too much on KOTOR/FF9?

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 6:14:09 AM | message detail
No, it's quite possible KOTOR wins that. I don't think it will, but it's possible.
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Intanos VI | Posted 10/7/2010 6:17:29 AM | message detail
SoA vs Mass Effect.

SoA got over 25% on a Zelda game whilst Mass Effect has only been on 4-ways where it's lost.

Will UC2 even get past SA2 let alone Halo: CE?
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/7/2010 6:17:40 AM | message detail

From: The Real Truth | #485
Yeah I think my bracket actually feels done now. Anyone else get that feeling? Where you finish your bracket but something feels off, so you change a few picks and it just feels right?


That's kinda how I am right now. I mean yeah, its possible for me to be totally wrong, all these new games, and all these games cross-generation could be wrong, and you try and reason with them with polls from 2005 but...at the end its like winning a bunch of coin tosses in a row. MGS4/3? KH2/1? Halo 3/1? Brawl/Melee? Smash/FFX? TOS/GoW? Honestly, who the **** knows? Just go with your feelings and stick with it.

Worked for fun entry Palmer.
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Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 10/7/2010 6:19:52 AM | message detail
Can someone give me a solid reason to not put AC2 > WW as an upset pick? I know it'll probably burn me, but argh, the temptation is unbearable...
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 6:23:13 AM | message detail
Oblivion would upset Wind Waker before Assassin's Creed 2 could.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2010 6:23:30 AM | message detail
Not chronologically, of course. Just in strength >_>
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UItimaterializer | Posted 10/7/2010 6:23:56 AM | message detail
Hay guys
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Eeeevil Overlord | Posted 10/7/2010 6:24:00 AM | message detail
Well yeah, I'm toying with both. But if AC2 upsets it first then Oblivion doesn't have a chance to :p.
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