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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 912

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/5/2010 4:16:54 PM | message detail
BRACKET IS HERE. Now with...

two wins for KotOR? You've done fine by me, Bacon. Fine by me.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 4:17:33 PM | message detail
TWEWY with two wins? You've done a fine job, Bacon.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/5/2010 4:23:05 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 with five wins?

That's two too few, Bacon!
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captainmurphy72 is a horrible user.
xp1337 | Posted 10/5/2010 4:31:41 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour | #002
TWEWY with two wins? You've done a fine job, Bacon.

TWEWY going to lose to Persona 4 in the most hilarious Round 2 match I can remember in some time. How does that match even happen? (I know it's not even guaranteed, but still)
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SC2k10 (395/448) 98.5138th Percentile
Dr_Football | Posted 10/5/2010 4:54:10 PM | message detail
No Mercy best game ever
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/5/2010 4:54:42 PM | message detail
I didn't even consider the new GS game being released soon. Yeah, I'm taking it over San Andreas.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 4:54:53 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #496
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3512

You sure about that?


I figured you'd bring that up.

Still don't trust 'em.

And Haste, you shouldn't take Psychonauts over anything. That's going to be a bottom 10 game.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/5/2010 4:55:22 PM | message detail
We didn't trust ToS either.

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DFF
xp1337 | Posted 10/5/2010 4:56:55 PM | message detail
From: KamikazePotato | #006
I didn't even consider the new GS game being released soon. Yeah, I'm taking it over San Andreas.

Well, I'm not sure if it releases before or after Golden Sun/GTA:SA, if that matters. Just that it should probably be around that time, I think. Probably within a week either way.
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SC2k10 (395/448) 98.5138th Percentile
ZFS | Posted 10/5/2010 4:57:01 PM | message detail
baba yetu to victory
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 4:57:37 PM | message detail
Handhelds that aren't Link's Awakening or Pokemon just don't do well here. I don't trust them.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/5/2010 5:02:08 PM | message detail
Hey, the banner is up with Meg Ryan getting semi-top billing. FFX loses early, abandon ship!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/5/2010 5:05:18 PM | message detail
Has Golden Sun ever disappointed? Isaac and Felix have exceeded (admittedly low) expectations every year they've been in. It got into the very competitive 2k9 contest on its own before you guys got it removed. It got like 40% in its GBA GotY poll a while back. And now, years later, it's randomly announced sequel was the second-most anticipated game on GameFAQs in a poll with FF, Metroid, and MGS.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 5:06:36 PM | message detail
Golden Sun hasn't been in a lot of situations to disappoint though. Admittedly, the anticipated game poll is pretty impressive, but I don't want to put a lot of stock in that.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/5/2010 5:06:54 PM | message detail
Will UltimazterializerX make a prediction bracket like he does every year?
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LOLContests | Posted 10/5/2010 5:07:48 PM | message detail
I don't know why we still don't have faith in handhelds. Everyone keeps saying "Oh it's just Pokemon/Link's Awakening."

But before that it was: "Oh no handhelds have popularity"
"Oh, no handhelds except for FFTA, which did decent."
"No handhelds except Pokemon."
"No handhelds except Pokemon and Link's Awakening."

The qualifiers just keep getting larger and larger. Not that I'm saying Golden Sun's gonna win that match, but to throw it out because it's a handheld is a little premature. As long as it's as strong as FFTA was in Sp2004, it might have what it needs to win.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 5:08:38 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #016
"Oh, no handhelds except for FFTA, which did decent."


We know why FFTA did "decent" though. It would do pretty badly today though.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/5/2010 5:11:05 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts vs. Kingdom Hearts II - who do you guys got? I figure the original is going to take it; three years ago I would have taken the second one, though. It seems the tables have turned; isn't KH1 higher on the FAQs now? but I'm not nearly confident at all.

I'll go with KH1 on this one.


One match that is giving me some trouble is Paper Mario/Gears of War. Gears may have bombed last contest, but it's up against a Paper Mario game that we haven't seen in the contests yet.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/5/2010 5:12:28 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto SA lost to Tales of Symphonia.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/5/2010 5:12:38 PM | message detail
Gears of War lost handily to Shadow of the Colossus. It's faded really fast.

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DFF
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/5/2010 5:14:42 PM | message detail
Also Brawl shall win right?
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/5/2010 5:16:07 PM | message detail
Tag
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/5/2010 5:18:57 PM | message detail
BOP is online

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390

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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/5/2010 7:30:32 PM | message detail
Bracket's up and it's been two hours since the last post.
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Wylvane
mas369 is a horrible user.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 7:31:33 PM | message detail
We're posting in a million different topics.
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LOLContests | Posted 10/5/2010 7:31:55 PM | message detail
Anyone else tempted by WoW and Animal Crossing? I didn't bite, but we have no clue how strong WoW anti-votes are 1v1. Took Paper Mario over it though.
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!
ToadYoshi | Posted 10/5/2010 7:32:53 PM | message detail
so apparently nobody likes bracket?

Perhaps everyone is too busy celebrating the fact that Skies of Arcadia will finally win a match!
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/5/2010 7:32:56 PM | message detail
Everyone is working on their bracket
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56645390
BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/5/2010 7:34:08 PM | message detail
everyone loves the bracket

you should have seen the chat when it went up

I don't think I saw any complaints
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 7:34:39 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #026
Anyone else tempted by WoW and Animal Crossing? I didn't bite, but we have no clue how strong WoW anti-votes are 1v1. Took Paper Mario over it though.


I want to take WoW to lose either of those matches, but I can't do it. I don't think either of those could seriously challenge Oblivion.
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xp1337 | Posted 10/5/2010 7:37:41 PM | message detail
Actually, going back to Golden Sun/GTA:SA.

Golden Sun: Dark Dawn releases on 11/29, I think. If I'm right, Golden Sun/GTA:SA would be a day match on that very day. But someone may want to confirm both the release date and that the match actually takes place that day.

I took GS to win that match even before thinking about this, but it might be worth thinking about. Or maybe not if you don't think GS even gets out of Round 1.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k10 (395/448) 98.5138th Percentile
Haste_2 | Posted 10/5/2010 7:37:50 PM | message detail
Anyway, for those of you trying to make judgments based on the previous game contest.... remember that these aren't 4-way matches AND the vote totals will be lower. What fun this will be.... hey, do you think Gears of War will do even WORSE? It's hard to imagine....

Random fact: Pokemon GSC vs. Xenogears way back in Sp2K4 was glitched, resulting in only GameFAQs account votes to be accepted. IIRC, Pokemon Xenogears had about 56% of the vote. The poll was redone the next day, and, to everyone's surprise, Xenogears scored even higher, 58-59% of the vote. (Granted, there is the possibility that Xenogears fans were just more enthusiastic about voting for their game again...)

But, anyway... Crystal for the championship! We all know Final Fantasy and Smash benefit from high votals!

Also, Mario seems to be hurt by low vote totals; in addition, SMG has had nowhere to go but down since the last BGE, soooooo... hey, what if RSE pulled the upset in Round 2?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 7:38:47 PM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #032
hey, what if RSE pulled the upset in Round 2?


D/P couldn't beat Galaxy in 2009. R/S/E sure ain't doin' it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/5/2010 7:38:51 PM | message detail

From: xp1337 | #031
Golden Sun: Dark Dawn releases on 11/29, I think. If I'm right, Golden Sun/GTA:SA would be a day match on that very day. But someone may want to confirm both the release date and that the match actually takes place that day.


oh jeez

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DFF
trannyscience | Posted 10/5/2010 7:39:08 PM | message detail
how can people consider RSE over Galaxy and then take Sunshine to win three matches

boggles the mind
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2010 7:40:00 PM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | #029
everyone loves the bracket

you should have seen the chat when it went up

I don't think I saw any complaints


Well Allen was *in* the chat, so I suspect a couple people were saving face. I wasn't one of them, because I'm enjoying this, but there were some topics that complained about it.

I looked again, and yeah God of War won't beat Half-Life 2. I also don't think Metroid Prime is as weak as I made it out to be. It could easily make the semifinal. Half-Life 2 and Fallout 3 aren't worldbeaters, and Prime was probably held back a few percents by Paper Mario last year.

Yet oddly enough, we've actually had Metroid Prime against a Half-Life before: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1628

I find it hard to believe the sequel couldn't make 6%. Which leaves Half-Life 2 against Fallout 3. Hmm.
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Xuxon | Posted 10/5/2010 7:40:15 PM | message detail
i don't think GS gets out of round 1, but i definitely thought about R&C > SA

does anyone else think DMC3 winning its division is remotely possible? everything there seems weak enough that it's possible to me.
xp1337 | Posted 10/5/2010 7:40:41 PM | message detail
From: trannyscience | #035
how can people consider RSE over Galaxy and then take Sunshine to win three matches

boggles the mind


Hey, I didn't want to take Sunshine to win 3 matches. It just kind of happened. I wouldn't even go near RSE > Galaxy though.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2010 7:41:22 PM | message detail
Sunshine won't beat Halo. People actually like the original Halo and hate Sunshine. I wouldn't be surprised if Ninja Gaiden outperformed Sunshine on Halo 1.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 7:41:40 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #036
Prime was probably held back a few percents by Paper Mario last year.


A few percents still barely beats Vice City and gets creamed by KH.
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LOLContests | Posted 10/5/2010 7:41:57 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
trannyscience | Posted 10/5/2010 7:42:11 PM | message detail
DMC3? no chance. I see that division as being between Prime, GOW, Symphonia and Half-Life 2. I would never take DMC3 over GOW at this point, especially after seeing the voteins.
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xyzzy
LOLContests | Posted 10/5/2010 7:42:31 PM | message detail
Golden Sun: Dark Dawn releases on 11/29, I think. If I'm right, Golden Sun/GTA:SA would be a day match on that very day. But someone may want to confirm both the release date and that the match actually takes place that day.

http://goldensun.neoseeker.com/w/i/goldensun/9/92/250px-IsaacPromo.jpg
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/5/2010 7:43:03 PM | message detail
Let's just put it this way.

Not even Lopen is taking DMC3 > Prime.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/5/2010 7:43:21 PM | message detail
Hey guys

HALO REACH
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/5/2010 7:44:34 PM | message detail
D/P couldn't beat Galaxy in 2009. R/S/E sure ain't doin' it.

Hey, Emerald could be close behind D/P. Then, add in the fact that DP will benefit from lower vote totals. Then, take into account Galaxy may have dropped, and Pokemon may have grown even more! I'm not saying what I think will happen... but what COULD happen, maybe.

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red sox 777 | Posted 10/5/2010 7:44:40 PM | message detail
Sunshine is the black sheep of the series, but it's not 3D Sonic games. Not confident on that match (or round 2 against the next Halo game) at all though. The first round match is a night match and the second round is a day match, for what it's worth.
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Xuxon | Posted 10/5/2010 7:45:11 PM | message detail
hmm i guess Prime could be decently strong. nothing in that bottom half impresses me, though.
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/5/2010 7:45:23 PM | message detail
Prime was probably held back a few percents by Paper Mario last year.

A few percents still barely beats Vice City and gets creamed by KH.


Maybe it's more like 10% then!
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/5/2010 7:45:56 PM | message detail
We all know Final Fantasy and Smash benefit from high votals!

I don't know how to go about showing this is true, but I agree.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.