GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 910

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swirIdude | Posted 10/1/2010 7:32:50 AM | message detail
SBAllen is using Umineko as an example to show that we don't actually control the nominations at all!
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At least Dark Link is more of a character than L-Block...Kinda. ~Zen
you mean, he's got LINES? ~voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 10/1/2010 8:14:58 AM | message detail
Glad he made an example out of Umineko instead of WWF No Mercy!
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Nominate Epona the very first chance you get!
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 8:17:30 AM | message detail
Also, Umineko is looking like it's stronger than Adventure. I don't think Zelda 1 would get to 50% if it were put in Umineko's place.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
Big Bob | Posted 10/1/2010 8:41:10 AM | message detail
Random thought: MW/MW2 is going to be overestimated in the contest and lose in a Master Chief-style upset. The series is weaker than we think; we've only seen it in multi-game polls that don't let anti-voting show as much.
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Oxbridge | Posted 10/1/2010 8:44:15 AM | message detail
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite currently has the same % as Professor Layton and the Curious Village, if 28 go through with % as the deciding factor, it's still neck and neck...
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Congratulations to Dr_Football, the Guru champion for 2010.
Big Bob | Posted 10/1/2010 9:12:51 AM | message detail
Neck and neck on who gets fed to FFX in the first round, woo!
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2010 9:56:40 AM | message detail
Random thought: MW/MW2 is going to be overestimated in the contest and lose in a Master Chief-style upset. The series is weaker than we think; we've only seen it in multi-game polls that don't let anti-voting show as much.

MW2 will probably be a bit overrated, but CoD4 definitely has enough strength to beat out any of the lower seeded games that get fed to it.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/1/2010 9:58:31 AM | message detail
If CoD4 suffers from what Halo and Gears seemed to have suffered from, I dunno. It can't hurt that the shooter that overtook it is from its own series, though.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/1/2010 10:00:56 AM | message detail
Also whoever does the Soul Calibur II pic needs to have it be the three console-exclusives (Link, Heihachi, Spawn)
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"SEXTON HILLBEAST" - TimJab
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/1/2010 10:05:09 AM | message detail

From: swirIdude | #201
SBAllen is using Umineko as an example to show that we don't actually control the nominations at all!


This doesn't make any sense. The Umineko rally on this board wasn't big at all. If anything, this shows how easy it is for us to get something in.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/1/2010 10:15:40 AM | message detail
Yeah, that's silly. Umineko isn't as widely loved on this board as people make it out to be. It's got a small contingent that sings its praises loudly and makes it seem bigger than it is.

Plus, with a smaller nomination total this time around, it shouldn't take that much to get a game to at least a vote-in. Jak and Ocelot got into the contest with 196 nominations, meaning the vote-in participants got much less. I don't know how many noms it took to get into the contest at bare minimum, but I'd wager it was a good bit lower than 196.

Also, NRT
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NoDicePwn | Posted 10/1/2010 10:17:29 AM | message detail
Well, todays Gotd Tidbit was a waste...

And I'm also surprised Umineko is still doing as well as it is. I woulda expected by now it would be last place.
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AlbionHero
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/1/2010 10:18:51 AM | message detail
Eh, it's not a total waste. It gave us somewhat of a hint as to what Bacon's surprise twist will be, and that there will be a second way to win prizes. Board 8 as a whole doesn't really care about prizes too much (Not that we don't want to win them, but it's not the main draw of the contest), so it's not that big of a deal to us.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/1/2010 11:05:51 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if CoD4 went the same way Master Chief does on Halo release years.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/1/2010 11:52:13 AM | message detail
If today is the last Vote in day

I wonder what the poll will be tonight
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~ Ange
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/1/2010 11:53:37 AM | message detail

From: SuperAngelo128
If today is the last Vote in day

I wonder what the poll will be tonight



"What do you think of the bracket?"
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AlbionHero
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/1/2010 11:54:21 AM | message detail
Would he really release the bracket right immedidatley after the last vote in?
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~ Ange
JaKyL25 | Posted 10/1/2010 11:55:54 AM | message detail
Board 8 as a whole doesn't really care about prizes too much (Not that we don't want to win them, but it's not the main draw of the contest)

u jelly
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Dr_Football | Posted 10/1/2010 11:58:28 AM | message detail
All about the prizes
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/1/2010 12:17:45 PM | message detail
Dude, I've won prize money before! It's nice, but I'd stick around even if these contests had no prizes attached!
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:20:18 PM | message detail
Board 8 as a whole doesn't really care about prizes too much (Not that we don't want to win them, but it's not the main draw of the contest), so it's not that big of a deal to us.

Agreed. Given the amount of time most of us put into these contests, it's clear we care about them much more than the prizes. If you spend just 2 hours a day on Board 8/Gamefaqs during contest season, that's 126 hours right there. Even counting each hour as worth $5, that's $630, a greater value than the first place prize right there, and it doesn't even include the bracketmaking period, nominations, or the offseason. I know I at least average considerably more than 2 hours a day during contest season too, especially with these 12-hour matches.

And, of course, the probability of you actually winning a prize is really low, so unless you're really really confident in your skills, you're not devoting this much time and energy to the contests just for prizes.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/1/2010 12:31:19 PM | message detail
It's not all about prizes, but it's the main thing for me!

Yeah, I like arguing about potential characters and what not, but at the end of the day, I'm doing it just so I can have a better understanding of the contest so I can win.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:35:10 PM | message detail
And, of course, the probability of you actually winning a prize is really low, so unless you're really really confident in your skills, you're not devoting this much time and energy to the contests just for prizes.

I dunno, I think a fair amount of CS&D-minded B8ers have won prize money of some sort.

Maybe 10%?
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:35:51 PM | message detail
Personally, I'd be happier to see Crono or Chrono Trigger win a contest than for me to personally win a contest. On a side note, if there's one thing Gamespot did right with their contest, it was the really high first place prize.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
Dr_Football | Posted 10/1/2010 12:38:06 PM | message detail
I agree, higher first place prizes for everyone!
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:45:24 PM | message detail
I dunno, I think a fair amount of CS&D-minded B8ers have won prize money of some sort.

Maybe 10%?


Yeah, CS&D posters probably finish in the money about 10% of the time, or something around there. It's about equivalent to having placed that high once (since we've had 12 contests). If you assume a CS&D poster almost always finishes in the 99th percentile, that's about equivalent to top 300. Say the top 20 are in prize-range, since a number of them are always prize-ineligible brackets. Then if it's just random where you finish in the top 300, the probability of finishing in prize range at least once in 10 contests is (280/300)^10 = 50.16%.

Sounds good! But if the average prize payout is $200, that's only a $20 expected payout per contest. If, as previously assumed, you spent 2 hours a day during contest season for 126 hours, that's 16 cents an hour. Regular posters in this topic clearly are not treating this primarily as a way of making money; the payoff is just way too low given how many posts and how much time we spend here.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
JaKyL25 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:47:43 PM | message detail
If you enjoy your job you'll never work a day in your life. :-P

Primary reason does not mean exclusive reason.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:49:53 PM | message detail
Fair enough, but at least people greatly enjoy following these contests irrespective of whether they win prizes.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
JaKyL25 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:52:42 PM | message detail
Right, it's like sports. You can still enjoy the season a lot even if your team blows, but going into each year your primary hope is a Championship.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 12:55:58 PM | message detail
Well, not really. It's a lot more likely for a sports team to win a championship than for you to win a Gamefaqs contest as an individual.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/1/2010 12:56:51 PM | message detail
Well, not really. It's a lot more likely for a sports team to win a championship than for you to win a Gamefaqs contest as an individual.

Not if you're the Lions.
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voltch | Posted 10/1/2010 1:01:28 PM | message detail
the umineko fail on display here awwwwwwwww yes!
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GoodPencil | Posted 10/1/2010 1:30:30 PM | message detail

From: YoboD | #192
... 456 people know what Umineko is?

This is quite a shock.


You must be in a HUGE SHOCK now
charmander6000 | Posted 10/1/2010 2:25:41 PM | message detail
Wyoming knows what's up

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050&region=USXWY
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
NoDicePwn | Posted 10/1/2010 2:28:16 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050&region=USXWV

why does it not surprise me that a game about families is winning in West Virginia
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/1/2010 2:30:58 PM | message detail
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/1/2010 2:54:21 PM | message detail
Would he really release the bracket right immedidatley after the last vote in?


It's possible, because it would be 9:00 PM for him at the time that this poll closes. So we could even have a bracket within 1 hour of today's poll closing.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/1/2010 4:53:04 PM | message detail
In regards to having 24 hour polls for the Elite 8 matches, Bacon has this to say:

Not enough time - we're bumping up too close to the holidays as it is.

:(
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Ngamer64 | Posted 10/1/2010 4:55:02 PM | message detail
[18:41] Ngameratwork: pretty upsetting that he wastes two WEEKS before putting the bracket online, then isn't willing to give us back two DAYS to make up for it
[18:44] Ngameratwork: and look at all this crap he runs at the end of the year. you're telling me we couldn't cut two days out of this?
12/31/09 Got iPhone/iPod Touch?
12/30/09 Got Xbox 360?
12/29/09 Got Wii?
12/28/09 Got PlayStation 3?
12/27/09 Got PSP?
12/26/09 Got DS?

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You should search B8 for Dr Football, cool dude and 2010 Guru champion!
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swirIdude | Posted 10/1/2010 4:58:14 PM | message detail
Nope, he can't. It's tradition!
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At least Dark Link is more of a character than L-Block...Kinda. ~Zen
you mean, he's got LINES? ~voltch
YoboD | Posted 10/1/2010 5:10:58 PM | message detail
I really am!
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Time to wander around
Aimlessly
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/1/2010 5:11:18 PM | message detail
What's so bad about running into the holidays? It's not really referring to those 'Got polls" is it? I highly doubt that, no one gives a crap about that
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/1/2010 5:20:19 PM | message detail
Yes, that's really what he's referring to. He has this block of polls cemented into his calendar

01/13/10 BEST OF 2009: Game of the Year (Final Vote)
...
01/01/10 BEST OF 2009: Best DS Game
12/31/09 Got iPhone/iPod Touch?
12/30/09 Got Xbox 360?
12/29/09 Got Wii?
12/28/09 Got PlayStation 3?
12/27/09 Got PSP?
12/26/09 Got DS?
12/25/09 What did you get for Christmas (or another December holiday)?
12/24/09 'Twas the night before Christmas, and what are you doing?
12/23/09 Do you think you will buy more games in 2010 than you did in 2009?
12/22/09 Have you ever paid for extra downloadable content for a game?
12/21/09 Do you have Christmas lights on your home?
12/20/09 Which early 2010 sequel are you most looking forward to?
12/19/09 Which early 2010 original game are you most looking forward to?



And is unwilling to cut two of them in favor of giving us full-day matches for FFX vs Brawl, Melee vs Twilight Princess, Galaxy vs MGS4, and RE4 vs Pokemon (as examples).

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You should search B8 for Dr Football, cool dude and 2010 Guru champion!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/1/2010 5:21:27 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #241
What's so bad about running into the holidays? It's not really referring to those 'Got polls" is it? I highly doubt that, no one gives a crap about that


Oh, you'd be surprised
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/1/2010 5:22:35 PM | message detail
For the previous contest, how much time elapsed between the final poll and the release of the bracket?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/1/2010 5:23:31 PM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #244
For the previous contest, how much time elapsed between the final poll and the release of the bracket?


Almost exactly a month.

I don't think we'll get more than a couple weeks for predictions though if Bacon's in a hurry to get this contest done before the holidays.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 5:26:37 PM | message detail
Let's hope FFX doesn't face either Smash game until the final four then. It's not so bad with this contest, because there aren't that many very strong games with divergent trends, but I'd be really upset if it were Best. Game. Ever. 3.

Also, do you think the holidays will impact the contest? I'm guessing a lot of people come here around that time....not sure what that would help.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/1/2010 5:27:43 PM | message detail
Heh, FFX Vs. SSBM might literally be decided by the time of the day.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/1/2010 5:28:14 PM | message detail
What games are coming out in November and December?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/1/2010 5:29:07 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #247
Heh, FFX Vs. SSBM might literally be decided by the time of the day.


This is why I'm hoping this is a Final Four match or later.

I want FFX to beat it with no excuses!
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/1/2010 5:29:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's a huge shift from day to night. Day SSBM could be worth like 56% on Night SSBM.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.