GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 910

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/29/2010 9:15:15 PM | message detail
God of War 2 is the BOSS. Also this probably means 1 and 3 are locks to get in.




~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/29/2010 9:16:42 PM | message detail
Kratos is huge casual bait, so you'd expect his games to be the same, so yeah.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/29/2010 9:17:48 PM | message detail
Did you ever play those, Leon? You like action games if I recall, so you'd probably love the GoW trilogy.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/29/2010 9:18:13 PM | message detail
I do like action games, but I've never really had a desire to play them.
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 9/29/2010 9:19:09 PM | message detail
I've been tempted to get the GoW PS3 package with 1 and 2
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/29/2010 9:19:40 PM | message detail
OGRE BATTLE YAY
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SuperAngelo128 | Posted 9/29/2010 9:20:15 PM | message detail
looks like I'm like the only big Tales fan still that goes in these topics now
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~ Ange
Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/30/2010 7:01:26 AM | message detail
God of War is probably the only PS2/3 series I have any real desire to play, and that's from someone whose only PS2 games he ever played were FFX, FFXII, and Jak & Daxter.
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Wylvane
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Calintares | Posted 9/30/2010 11:37:11 AM | message detail
So what are the general trends in the day/night format? How is it expected to affect the contenders for the title?
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2010 11:37:54 AM | message detail
Nintendo profits fell off a huge amount this year. They made $2.7 billion from April 2009 - March 2010 (that's their fiscal year), but are now projected to only make around $1 billion this year (April 2010 - March 2011). They actually lost money over the first 6 months, unexpectedly, but most of their profit usually comes from the holidays.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2010 11:41:10 AM | message detail
So what are the general trends in the day/night format? How is it expected to affect the contenders for the title?

It probably won't affect the champion, unless FFX runs into one of the big Nintendo games before the changeover to 24 hours. If that does happen, I'd take FFX over anything in this contest at night, and would definitely not take it over Melee/Brawl in the day. FFX vs. TP or GSC could be interesting both as 24-hour matches and as day matches.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
transience | Posted 9/30/2010 11:57:44 AM | message detail
rank these second-tier Nintendo GOTD games!

Pokemon Diamond
Metroid Prime
Super Mario Galaxy
Zelda: Majora's Mask
Zelda: Wind Waker

...I can't think of any other notable Nintendo releases besides these. I'm excluding Melee, Brawl, TP and Pokemon Gold because those seem like the favourites. is there really nothing else? Paper Mario, the Mario Karts and Pokemon Emerald don't seem like they're that popular. same with the NSMBs, Wii Sports, Perfect Dark or anything Fire Emblem.

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xyzzy
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/30/2010 12:05:15 PM | message detail
WW
Diamond
Metroid Prime
Galaxy
Majora's Mask
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
VeryInsane | Posted 9/30/2010 12:20:27 PM | message detail
In Contest Strength?

Galaxy
Diamond
Majora's Mask
Windwaker
Metroid Prime

In how good they actually are?

Metroid Prime
Majora's Mask
Galaxy
Windwaker
Diamond
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 12:33:03 PM | message detail
LoZ:MM
LoZ:WW
SMG
MP
D/P

Feelin' pretty good about that, honestly. SMG > MP's the only thing I'd want to question much here since I've been calling that a good match between the weakest 3D-Nintendo games we saw in BGE2 and we saw MP beat SMG in that GotD-poll...but I'll give SMG the benefit of the doubt anyway because:

1) It's friggin' Mario. Not falling for that again here.
2) SMG was in the top four most nominated games. I get that nominations don't exactly mean much and I won't be doing anything dumb like taking it over SSBB (again), but I'll take that as a tie-breaker between them here.
3) MP only got ~61.5% on PM. To be fair, SMG only got ~55% on D/P, but I don't have reason to trust Paper Mario any yet.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 12:36:52 PM | message detail
That said, judging them very accurately sucks. They were all in SFF/LFF-matches every match they had in BGE2, and -- though we saw LoZ:WW beat MP in 2004 -- they were stuck behind Starcraft.
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EPONA EPONA EPONA
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/30/2010 12:51:17 PM | message detail
My ranking would be:

Majora's Mask
Wind Waker
Super Mario Galaxy
Diamond/Pearl
Metroid Prime

I'm pretty confident that Metroid Prime is the weakest; it's never looked impressive in previous contests, and Other M's lukewarm reception isn't going to do it any favors this time around. The other games are much trickier to sort, but I feel pretty good about that lineup; though it is possible that Galaxy could surpass Wind Waker, as its reputation seems to have risen quite a bit since the last games contest.

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transients | Posted 9/30/2010 12:53:10 PM | message detail
I'm surprised so many people are taking Majora's Mask over Wind Waker after all the bombs it's had over the years.
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xyzzy
NoDicePwn | Posted 9/30/2010 12:56:57 PM | message detail
Rate these recent WRPGs in contest strength

Fallout 3
Oblivion
Morrowind
Dragon Age Origins
Mass Effect
World of Warcraft
Knights of the Old Republic

I think these are all the wrpg locks to make it.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 9/30/2010 1:01:25 PM | message detail
Fallout 3
Oblivion
KotoR
Mass Effect
DAO
WoW
Morrowind

Feeling pretty good about the first 3, not so sure on the rest.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/30/2010 1:04:57 PM | message detail
taaaag
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TRE Public Account | Posted 9/30/2010 1:06:30 PM | message detail
I'm surprised so many people are taking Majora's Mask over Wind Waker after all the bombs it's had over the years.

Like what? It gets killed when in a poll with OoT, but that's expected. It got killed by Pokemon RBY but RBY turned out to be a monster. It lost to Goldeneye and placed ahead of SSB in a Wii's Virtual Console poll but that's not too bad. We don't have too much data on MM, but I don't it's ever done too badly.
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transients | Posted 9/30/2010 1:10:02 PM | message detail
yeah I agree.. to a certain extent. at some point I would want SOME kind of show of strength. Wind Waker did almost as well on Melee as Majora's Mask got on RBY and there's way more overlap in WW/Melee.

I would probably take Galaxy to top them all.
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xyzzy
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/30/2010 1:13:45 PM | message detail
God of War 2 is the BOSS. Also this probably means 1 and 3 are locks to get in



lol
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2010 1:14:21 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask got 36% on RBY with two other N64 games in the poll. I think it would be fair to give it high 30s or even 40% in a straight match. Wind Waker managed a little under 35% on Melee twice, and while both those matches seemed more "standard" to me, there's more possibility for SFF there. So... I'm willing to give both games upwards of 40% on RBY/Melee, and we're not still which of those two games was stronger in the early rounds. It seems like a toss-up. I prefer MM personally, and I think there's potential in backing the OoT sequel, so I'll go with that.

Also, Majora's Mask was finally made available on Virtual Console after the 2009 contest. Doubt it did much, but it can't hurt.
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Calintares | Posted 9/30/2010 1:18:33 PM | message detail
Baldurs Gate 2 might at least make a vote-in poll.
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NoDicePwn | Posted 9/30/2010 1:36:22 PM | message detail
Oh right, I forgot Baldurs Gate 2 was 2000... I thought that was late 90s for whatever reason. Yeah, that'll probably make a vote in poll and I'm sure it could get enough votes to make it.
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transients | Posted 9/30/2010 1:45:42 PM | message detail
somebody here will know this - how many games made the vote-in from last year?

also, link to the nominations from this year?
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 1:51:04 PM | message detail

From: transients | #018
I'm surprised so many people are taking Majora's Mask over Wind Waker after all the bombs it's had over the years.


I had been a strong supporter of LoZ:WW > LoZ:MM until BGE2, where...

From: transients | #023
Wind Waker did almost as well on Melee as Majora's Mask got on RBY and there's way more overlap in WW/Melee.


...which is true about that overlap, but I'm taking RBY as the #3 game and LoZ:MM still had two other N64-Rare games in its poll, so it ought to improve too. Throw in that LoZ:MM is from GameFAQs's "golden age," and I gotta lean its way now.


It's absolutely close though, and I feel like this is a battle we've been waiting to see for seven years now. Come on SB, take my suggestion and have it already.

Go Wind Waker go.
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Epona EPONA EPONA Epona EPONA EPONA Epona
HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 1:52:12 PM | message detail

From: transients | #028
somebody here will know this - how many games made the vote-in from last year?


Twenty-eight -- SB guaranteed the top one hundred games and made the next seventy-two fight over the left-over spots.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/30/2010 2:40:15 PM | message detail
red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2010 2:41:10 PM | message detail
So what are the general trends in the day/night format? How is it expected to affect the contenders for the title?

It probably won't affect the champion, unless FFX runs into one of the big Nintendo games before the changeover to 24 hours. If that does happen, I'd take FFX over anything in this contest at night, and would definitely not take it over Melee/Brawl in the day. FFX vs. TP or GSC could be interesting both as 24-hour matches and as day matches.


FFX's night vote shouldn't be as strong as FFVII's night vote, because Aerith had a stronger night vote than Auron in the last contest. If FFX runs into Melee or Brawl before the final four and it is a night match, I might consider taking FFX there.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2010 2:41:59 PM | message detail
I'm surprised that MM > WW has gone from an upset pick to almost consensus in the stats topic.

I'd be surprised if MM plus off the upset, though the match would be pretty close overall.


God of War 2 is the BOSS. Also this probably means 1 and 3 are locks to get in.

Damn Ulti and his mod friends playing games not released to the public for months. >_>
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Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
voltch | Posted 9/30/2010 2:49:39 PM | message detail
bracket still not released?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/30/2010 2:51:36 PM | message detail
There's still 3 more days of vote-ins left to do. No bracket until next Monday at the earliest.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2010 2:52:05 PM | message detail
Can't release the bracket until the vote-ins are done.

It's looking like Monday at the earliest.
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Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2010 2:58:06 PM | message detail
Zelda: Majora's Mask
Zelda: Wind Waker
Super Mario Galaxy
Metroid Prime
Pokemon Diamond

I've always favored MM > WW, although that match could go either way. Galaxy > Prime feels like it should follow from Mario > Samus, although the latest GOTD poll says otherwise. Strangely enough, SMG beat MP easily in the Jan. 2008 edition of the poll. I think Prime stands out more in those polls, so Galaxy can probably still pull it out.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/30/2010 3:13:17 PM | message detail
I have to favor Wind Waker > Majora's Mask here, because of these 3 matches:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3462
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3469
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3489

RBY scores 63.72% on MM while Melee scores 65.64% on WW in Round 1 and 65.25% in Round 2. RBY and Melee had somewhat similar performances against MM and WW respectively, but I would go with MM > WW just because RBY is weaker than Melee.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 3:29:40 PM | message detail
Care to try it again Luster? You favored both games!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/30/2010 3:33:19 PM | message detail
Whoops, I made a mistake in my post. The mistake is in here:

RBY and Melee had somewhat similar performances against MM and WW respectively, but I would go with MM > WW just because RBY is weaker than Melee.

I meant to say "WW > MM".
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CaptainRusty | Posted 9/30/2010 4:31:28 PM | message detail
Next character battle we should get the Elephant Genie from Diddy Kong Racing in

clearly the best character ever.

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HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 4:55:31 PM | message detail
I'd laugh. That said, give me Whizpig instead...or the triceratops you race up the mountain.
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EPONA EPONA EPONA
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/30/2010 5:59:09 PM | message detail
I'll take Wind Waker AND Galaxy over Majora's Mask. I think Board 8's unusual love for that game ends up causing us to overrate it. I don't think it's going to end up being that strong. Make all the N64 excuses you want to, RBY still got 50%+ in that poll against three N64 games. I don't really think Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie really made any significant LFF impact in that match either.

Plus, OFPUF or something! Regardless, Majora's Mask has never really gotten a fair shake, so it's hard to say.

(It may not have been obvious to us, but look at the prediction percentages!)
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/30/2010 6:01:41 PM | message detail
NGamer, did you just IM me? I hit escape by accident and closed it. The SN looked like "NGamer."
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XxSoulxX | Posted 9/30/2010 6:03:43 PM | message detail
I think Board 8's unusual love for that game ends up causing us to overrate it. I don't think it's going to end up being that strong.

Exactly. Majora's Mask is loved here because it's the most overlooked game in the main franchise. Here's how I would rate the Zelda's, by contest strength:

OoT > LttP> TP > WW > LoZ > MM > Zelda 2
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/30/2010 6:25:16 PM | message detail
Some Q&A for you guys:

1. Will GTA win any debatable matches it's in?
2. Will Halo win any debatable matches it's in?
3. What game do you think everyone is overlooking?
4. What game do you think everyone is overrating?
5. Do you think there will be a surprise contender, and if so, who?
6. What do you think SBAllen's surprise is?
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/30/2010 6:29:48 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #045
6. What do you think SBAllen's surprise is?


The winner of the contest gets to be a Mod
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 6:30:59 PM | message detail
RBY had 50.68%, true, but SSBM had 48.58% as well; neither one is a laughing matter when it comes to dominating a poll. If we also want to discuss not being LFF'd, you have to ask yourself how much a SSB-game can really SFF a LoZ-game. SSBB didn't allow RE4 to beat LoZ:TP through SFF or even LFF, LoZ:MM beat SSB in a Virtual Console-poll, and the LoZ-series tripled the SSB-series with 5+% to spare in the recent Nintendo-poll. While I get the Gamecube-argument for SFF, it's hardly proven at this time...and considering I might take GSC > SSBM, there's no way I'm not taking RBY > SSBM. LoZ:WW would need to be clearly SFF'd, and considering how its competition in 2004 fared last year...

R1: Skies of Arcadia - snubbed in BGE2.
R2: Metroid Prime - lost to GTA:VC with Paper Mario in the poll.
R3: Starcraft - revealed to be arguably the biggest sham since Magus.

...I don't trust SSBM to SFF it like that.


It's (almost.....) worth bringing up that LoZ:WW beat LoZ:MM in the Top 100 List, by one position...and Perfect Dark beat LoZ:WW by one position. How on earth did it lose to LoZ:MM?!?!?!?
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 6:33:04 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #045
Some Q&A for you guys:

1. Will GTA win any debatable matches it's in?
2. Will Halo win any debatable matches it's in?
3. What game do you think everyone is overlooking?
4. What game do you think everyone is overrating?
5. Do you think there will be a surprise contender, and if so, who?
6. What do you think SBAllen's surprise is?


I've gotta see the bracket before I can really say on any of those except #6...where I just don't know.


I also wanna bring up I'm not crazy about LoZ:MM. It's a pretty good game, but I can think of four LoZ-games I like more than it (including LoZ:WW).
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/30/2010 6:47:16 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #047
you have to ask yourself how much a SSB-game can really SFF a LoZ-game


Unlike MM, WW had a good chance to prove itself in the first Games Contest, so I feel confident in saying "A lot." And yes, I know its opposition didn't fare too well, but comparing 2004 StarCraft to 2009 StarCraft is hardly a fair comparison. Also, I don't think WW is closer to Halo than Diablo 2 in strength (Don't think it loses to Diablo 2 at all, actually). Brawl isn't going to LFF TP as much because TP is quite a bit stronger than MM, especially in terms of how close in strength it is to Brawl compared to how close WW is to Melee. VC poll is pretty meaningless because we have zero idea of how strong the original Smash Bros. really is, and a Series poll is pretty meaningless, too, because, well, Zelda's a lot more than WW and MM.

But regardless, I think it seems silly to argue Zelda can't be SFF'd. It can be, and it has been.

WW and MM are the black sheep of the series, but only one gets dwarfed by OoT, and that's MM. Feels like the FFIX of the series to me.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2010 7:20:29 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]