GameFAQs Contests

It's been mentioned, but 'preesh anyway!
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Nominate EPONA here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/55150177

There can be more than one reasonable prediction, using "reasonable prediction" as a prediction that the predictor feels is the most likely outcome. This is because different people have different opinions.

But some predictions/opinions are considered to be more reasonable than others.

Stretching the word Ezio > Zelda was technically a reasonable prediction, but it was a lot less resonable than Zelda > Ezio since previous information suggests that Zelda winning was much more likely.

Or going back to Magus/Knuckles. Even if you went with Magus' worst estimation (besides the SFF match against Crono) Magus was still expected to defeat Knuckles in a rather close match so you would also need to expect Magus to take a drop in strength. At the time and by using Crono it would be difficult to argue that CT was going downhill especially when the game has already been out for 10 years and it seemed that Crono has stayed rather costant or even gone slightly up. Had an imaginary person on the board existed and picked Knuckles to win you would consider him to be more reasonable than the people who looked at previous stats and made a prediction and ended up being wrong?
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

No, but I wouldn't call him unreasonable either unless his arguments were based on fanboy logic or were just ridiculous. And Zelda/Ezio and Magus/Knuckles were not matches that were actually debated here, while Charizard and Vincent were.

As far as whether a pick counts as a calculated risk or not, it depends only on the picker's own beliefs. It has nothing to do with anything else. You can argue that some beliefs are just stupid, but we generally shouldn't do that just because someone disagrees with us.

*I mean, generally, if I get a match wrong, I'll think about why I was wrong, about what in my assumptions or thinking was flawed. I usually don't tell myself that my prediction was in fact the best prediction possible given the knowledge we had before.

*Actually, the first thing I do when I get a match wrong is think about how this impacts Crono, and if badly, how I can spin it to make Crono look good. But that's fanboyism, and not really reasonable.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

"Reasonable" is all based on the context of what information we have available, so I don't like to say upsets with newcomers are particularly reasonable or unreasonable. I think we can say we can generally expect most newcomers at this point (or the last CB) not to be as strong as Kratos, so by that regard it would be a calculated risk if you thought Charizard would be an exception with decent reasoning...but I still don't think it's enough to start saying things are reasonable or unreasonable like that.

Of course, we'll still believe some people's expectations of newcomers are reasonable while others' are not, often because they're not your own. I just try not to much with newcomers because none of us really know.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Nominate EPONA here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/55150177

I used those two examples as extreme cases. Though his prediction would be less reasonable since it required more risk/luck for the pick to work.

*I mean, generally, if I get a match wrong, I'll think about why I was wrong, about what in my assumptions or thinking was flawed. I usually don't tell myself that my prediction was in fact the best prediction possible given the knowledge we had before.

There's enough people in the stats topic with wide enough opinions to cover almost any angle and it is quite rare that an important one is omitted. Many times a wrong prediction comes from something that was thought to be less likely to happen happening, not because our initial thoughts were crazy.

Ever since 2k4 very few matches have caught us really off-guard. We may have been owned a lot of times in the past, but even in those times we at least acknowledged at one point that the upset was there in the first place.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.

Was Mario > Cloud reasonable? It's not until just last contest that people actually thought that result plausible, even after it actually happened, because of all the crazy circumstances. Of course, it was 2002 which was based on random guesses, so.

I see people calling stuff calculated risks using hindsight, which is idiotic. What matters is the information we had back then, not what we have now. Now we'd know L-Block could be appealing enough to rally the entire internet behind it and win a contest, but that certainly doesn't make it a "calculated risk." It's a stupid term to begin with since this topic doesn't even agree on its definition.

Though now I'm inspired to create a series of topics when the bracket comes out asking what people think the probability of the higher seed of a match winning is for each match. It'd be really neat to average them all together and see how the probabilities stack up against the actual results.
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Wylvane
Justin_Crossing is a horrible user.

You'd get some interesting results I think. Squall/Auron probably would have had most people predicting Squall with under a 60% or less chance of winning, despite Squall taking a huge majority of Guru brackets.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

Squall's chances of victory were 100%
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

I don't think you can be absolutely sure on that one.

You'd get some interesting results I think. Squall/Auron probably would have had most people predicting Squall with under a 60% or less chance of winning, despite Squall taking a huge majority of Guru brackets.

In the case of Squall/Auron, the results would not be surprising at all. A huge majority would pick Squall, but very few would admit that Squall's chances of winning were 100%. Not even I thought Squall was a 100% lock to win that match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

People who didn't think Squall was a lock to win are silly people who believed Sonic 2008 = Sonic 2007
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3839

That was under 52% for Squall there and almost won by 2500 votes. I think that's a close enough match to say for sure that Squall was not a lock to win. I don't know how close Squall/Auron would have to be in order to say for sure that Squall is not a lock to win the match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

You're not understanding me.

It was a lock.

No debating this.
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Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX!
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No debating this.

Shut up.


Anyways, what would Squall need to get against Auron to make you believe that he would not be a lock to win the match?

51%?
50.50%?
50.25%?
50.05%?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

From: -LusterSoldier- | #414
Anyways, what would Squall need to get against Auron to make you believe that he would not be a lock to win the match?

49.99%

Which is impossible.

So yeah.

Pointless question.
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It's okay Luster, Leon is using fanboy logic. It brooks no denial.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

A big problem with you saying that Squall is a lock to win that match is you haven't even backed up that statement with some good reasoning. Give me a good reasoning behind Squall being a lock in that match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

I no-sell any logic that dictates Squall would lose.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

From: -LusterSoldier- | #417
A big problem with you saying that Squall is a lock to win that match is you haven't even backed up that statement with some good reasoning. Give me a good reasoning behind Squall being a lock in that match.

He won.

It was never close.

The end.
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Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX!
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9342/banner3seifer.jpg

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56443988

Yes? No? Maybe? I think it's a good idea! And so does KP!
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http://8board.webs.com/dracula.jpg

He won.

It was never close.

The end.

That does not qualify as a good reasoning. A good reasoning should be based on past matches. Linking to some past matches and using the results of those matches to argue that Squall is a lock to win would be much better than saying he is a lock to win without saying why is a lock to win.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

I argued about it back in the day. There's no point in arguing about it now because Squall won easily.

No need to prove something that already happened.
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Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX!
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You might have argued about it a long time ago, but I'm not digging through hundreds of pages in the stats archive to look for your argument.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Then that's your problem, not mine.
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Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
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Squall/Auron was a classic example of while the match may be close Squall losing was very unlikely and I know I'm not the only one besides Leon that thinks this. Had a topic existed back then I would probably somewhere above 75% in terms of Squall's chances and likely higher by the time the match rolled around.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.

Honestly, the main evidence Auron pickers used was that Auron beat Sonic in 2008, and Squall didn't. Everything else you could find favored Squall.

But it's not like Sonic had a reason to get a major boost in the middle of the 2007 contest, no sir.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

(Oh, and I picked Auron > Sonic in 2008 without thinking twice, and picked Squall > Auron without thinking twice, so go figure)
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

As for arguments, Auron was always a slight step below Squall and considering that their fanbase is linked you'd have to bet on a site shift going Auron's way. Of course after two rounds Auron performing as expected pretty much killed any chance.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.

So how long after nominations should we wait for brackets to be up? And when should we be demanding the damn bracket?
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"You brought your *****, to the waffle hut?"

I'll be demanding the bracket as soon as nominations close.

Seriously, it all depends on if we get vote-ins.

TRE, how long after nominations closed did we get the first vote-in for CBVIII?
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Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
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I don't think it's very likely for the bracket to go up on the same day that nominations are closed. We could expect a bracket to go up as early as the next day after the nominations are closed. Assuming no vote-in polls for this contest, though.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

I believe we got the vote-ins on the day after nominations closed. So several hours after they were closed.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

I think it was a few hours after the nominations closed so I'd assume Tuesday's poll.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.

So we should know fairly quickly if we're getting vote-ins or not, which is good news.

Hoping not, and we can get the bracket by Wednesday. It honestly shouldn't take more than a couple of days to form the bracket.
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Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX!
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Squall/Auron was the kind of match where all the evidence pointed to a narrow Squall win, but the margin was narrow enough that you couldn't rule out an Auron win even if you couldn't justify actually picking Auron. Or so it seemed to me.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

I ruled it out.

I ruled it out hard.

And then I ruled over HaRRicH hard.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I really hope we don't have vote ins... it'll just make it painful to see how weak the games are that are on the bubble. Our bottom feeders in this contest are already gonna be all time bad if its 128 games due to only allowing games from the last 10 years.
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Albion Hero

From: NoDicePwn | #437
Our bottom feeders in this contest are already gonna be all time bad if its 128 games due to only allowing games from the last 10 years.

Eh, I don't think it'll be as weak as everyone thinks. No game from the last decade came anywhere close to the bottom of the x-stats of either Games Contest.
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Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX!
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Unlike further in the past most people still remember a lot from this decade. I don't think the field would be any weaker than say the last character battle (if we include the vote-ins)
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.

Well we're not gonna be seeing Adventure type stuff, but I'm sure we're gonna be getting a bunch of random FPS and casual bait games, and they'll all be very weak. Like random Medal of Honors and stuff like that. One casual game I'm interested to see though is Farmville. I hope that makes it.
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Albion Hero

I really hope we don't have vote ins... it'll just make it painful to see how weak the games are that are on the bubble. Our bottom feeders in this contest are already gonna be all time bad if its 128 games due to only allowing games from the last 10 years.

The last games contest indicated that the range of strength for modern games is narrower than older games. There's fewer super strong games, and there's also a lot fewer bottom of the barrel fodder.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.

I don't think we'll see a Medal of Honor game I feel that the FPS universe is mostly down to Halo and Call of Duty, but those two series alone could give us over half a dozen games.

Farmville would be interesting.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.

I don't think we'll see a Medal of Honor game I feel that the FPS universe is mostly down to Halo and Call of Duty, but those two series alone could give us over half a dozen games.

Half-Life, Team Fortress, Left 4 Dead, Bioshock, etc
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

I don't think enough people would even think about nominating Farmville for it to get in.

Part of me thinks that'll be a problem with some remakes. People just aren't going to think about nominating Mario 64 DS and things like that, I think.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Only Half-Lie has done well between those games.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.

From: MarioSuperstar | #445
Only Half-Lie has done well between those games.

That's only partially true.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Only Half-Lie has done well between those games.

Bioshock and Big Daddy have done well enough.
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Albion Hero

Only Half-Lie has done well between those games.

That wasn't what was being discussed.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

But yeah, I'm sure we'll get all the big Valve games; Half Life 2, Left 4 Dead 2 (or first one), Portal, Team Fortress 2. A few other random FPS like Bioshock, Resistance 1 (or 2), Timesplitters 2, Killzone 2, and I'm sure a few others to slip my mind will make it as well beside the obvious Halo and Call of Duty.
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Albion Hero

Oh, I thought charmander meant in terms of strength. Not who could make it or what other FPS games we missed.
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*is Dranze*
Dr. Football swept me.