GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 906
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2010 11:46:11 AM | message detail |
IMO: Calculated risk: a pick which has less than a 50% chance of success according to the picker. I don't take too many of these. In the last contest, I thought Charizard was a huge favorite to reach Bowser (or Sora, in my case). Kratos or L-Block would have been my risks there. I also thought Hayabusa and Ryu were toss-ups in their matches, and I luckily just predicted correctly. Snake>Seph is the only calculated risk that comes to mind, and it paid off bigtime. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 11:52:11 AM | message detail |
Oh, and I guess Sub-Zero > Master Chief is a personal favorite upset pick of mine. I still have no idea how only 8 Gurus picked that. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 11:56:15 AM | message detail |
Probably
because of Scorpion's performance in 2k4 along with a sizable group of
people that thought Sub-Zero would be just as strong or weaker than
Scorpion. To me, a calculated risk is a pick that is not the most probable outcome (from the bracketmaker's point of view, not the board's). So for example, if I thought Sora had a 40% chance, Charizard had a 30% chance, Bowser had a 20% chance, and L-Block had a 10% chance, not taking Sora would be a risk. So we agree that Charizard was a calculated risk, just that I thought Charizard would be much riskier. I'm fine with that. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2010 11:57:52 AM | message detail |
I
dunno. That's one I really kick myself for not taking; it'd be a great
pick to have on the ol' contest resume. I always figured Sub-Zero would
be stronger than Scorpion, and Chief barely managed a win over DK the
year before, when Halo 2 was more recent. Barely winning over DK means
you're ripe for the picking against someone stronger than Scorpion.
Wish I had told myself that four years ago! --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
red sox 777 | Posted 9/19/2010 11:57:52 AM | message detail |
So we agree that Charizard was a calculated risk, just that I thought Charizard would be much riskier. I'm fine with that. No we didn't, not for ngirl and others who took Charizard! If I had taken Charizard there, it would have been a calculated risk, but not for people who thought he was the favorite. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 11:59:17 AM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #353 But see, this is what I don't get. There was no reason to think this whatsoever. Any evidence we had pointed to Sub-Zero being stronger. I have no idea why people though they would be equal. It's like saying Ryu and Ken are equal. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2010 12:00:52 PM | message detail |
It's
because Scorpion had made it in every year. You'd have a TON of people
thinking Ken was stronger if he had been making brackets since 2002
while Ryu got his first crack in 2006. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:02:09 PM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #357 You'd think we'd have learned our lesson with this after Vincent and Tifa turned out to be stronger than Aerith! If Subby had been in the original contest instead of Scorpion, he'd have never missed a contest. Same with Vincent. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/19/2010 12:02:20 PM | message detail |
The
reason I chose Sub had more to do with Master Chief being a failure
than Sub-Zero being worth anything. I would have took Scorpion over him
too.. --- *is Dranze* Dr. Football swept me. |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:03:21 PM | message detail |
No
we didn't, not for ngirl and others who took Charizard! If I had taken
Charizard there, it would have been a calculated risk, but not for
people who thought he was the favorite. Taking someone to win and being the favourite to win are two different things. There was no reason to think this whatsoever. Any evidence we had pointed to Sub-Zero being stronger. I have no idea why people though they would be equal. It's like saying Ryu and Ken are equal. It's one of those things where the board never played the series and got burned because of it. We like to think the characters who made it before are usually stronger than newer characters for some reason. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2010 12:04:49 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #358 This wasn't at all apparent before the 2006 contest. Remember that Aeris had doubled Sora, crushed Chief, and gotten 47% on Sonic in her last appearance. Nothing Tifa or Vincent did in 2005 put them inarguably ahead of that. In fact, Tifa did notably worse against Sonic. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:04:58 PM | message detail |
Yeah, I guess actually liking Mortal Kombat paid off for me. But still, seeing Board 8 rooting for Master Chief was one of the most surreal experiences I've had here. I wouldn't have believed if it I hadn't been there. --- Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX! http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9302/banner5morrigan2.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:06:19 PM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #361 I suppose not. I forget Aerith didn't start looking clearly weaker until 2006. But still, Tifa almost got as much on Vyse as Cloud did, and Vincent quadrupled Kerrigan! Contest winners! --- Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX! http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:07:06 PM | message detail |
Also yeah there wasn't any evidence that suggested that Aerith was notably weaker until 2k6. Aerith > Zelda was the start of my bracket's collapse in 2k6. >_> --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/19/2010 12:07:28 PM | message detail |
It's
one of those things where the board never played the series and got
burned because of it. We like to think the characters who made it
before are usually stronger than newer characters for some reason. Both Sub-Zero and Scorpion are really close when it comes to popularity outside this site. It's pretty much fire Vs. ice, so it's not really that stupid to think both would be similar in strength. --- Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:08:19 PM | message detail |
But still, Tifa almost got as much on Vyse as Cloud did, and Vincent quadrupled Kerrigan! Contest winners! As a Dante > Vincent taker I not only had to argue for Dante to win, but to argue that Vincent will get nowhere near 60%. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:08:23 PM | message detail |
From: XxSoulxX | #365 More like Blue vs. Yellow And who picks yellow Give me a break --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/19/2010 12:10:38 PM | message detail |
I thought that old Mortal Kombat poll was enough for me. Sub was a clear winner in the same fashion Ryu was. --- *is Dranze* Dr. Football swept me. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2010 12:10:43 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #367 So true. My friends and I played MK as well (honestly, what group of boys DIDN'T in the early 90s?), and everyone knew Sub-Zero was cooler. Blue > Yellow. Head rip w/ spinal cord attached fatality > Toasty fatality. Simple as that. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:12:10 PM | message detail |
And I know we disparage the results of favorites polls (and for good reason), but when Sub-Zero dominates the poll this badly, there should be some sort of idea he could maybe be decently stronger. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1788 I mean, he ends up with a higher overall percentage than Ryu did, although Scorpion ends up closer to him than anyone does to Ryu in the SF poll. And I'm just more surprised that more people didn't take the upset just because it's Master Chief. I would've heavily considered Scorpion to win. Sub-Zero was just a no-brainer for me, regardless of how close it was. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:14:43 PM | message detail |
Taking someone to win and being the favourite to win are two different things. And there were people who thought Charizard was the favorite to win. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
red sox 777 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:15:28 PM | message detail |
My excuse for not taking Sub-Zero: I knew almost nothing about Mortal Kombat. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2010 12:16:19 PM | message detail |
You
have to remember that Chief wasn't considered nearly the choke artist
he is today. In fact, it was the Subz match that led to that label. He
had pulled off a comeback win against DK and did respectably
well against Crono. Also, come on, no one was willing to just
completely disregard 2004 back then. Yeah, Chief lost it at the end
against Frog, but he still ended up looking amazing in that contest. He
was a huge seeding favorite and was up against a newcomer. Of course
he'd be a huge favorite. I think many people might have been tempted to
take the Sub-Zero upset but were simply too reluctant to pull the
trigger. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:17:26 PM | message detail |
Oh right, that's true. I forgot there were people who still thought Chief could win even after Subby was up over 5000 votes. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2010 12:18:04 PM | message detail |
And it was a guaranteed 1-point match, anyway. Had it been something more crucial, we could have likely seen more variation. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:19:54 PM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #375 Man, I'm more likely to take a risk on a 1-point match because it's just that. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:20:55 PM | message detail |
And there were people who thought Charizard was the favorite to win. And from a probability view they would be wrong. Charizard mainly needed... - To at least be equal to Pikachu - God of War 3 hype didn't at least boost Kratos more than HGSS hype - The release of HGSS to give Charizard the needed boost over Sora/Bowser --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/19/2010 12:21:14 PM | message detail |
I
think after 2005 it was pretty clear Chief was just an average shmoe.
Frog choked the following year and DK failed to double freakin' Sam
Fisher. --- *is Dranze* Dr. Football swept me. |
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/19/2010 12:21:31 PM | message detail |
Many people didn't even look at those polls because of Yoshi > Mario, so it was basically a crap shoot. I loved Mortal Kombat as much as the next kid, but in my group of circles Scorpion was more popular so I didn't think Subby could beat him. --- "Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:21:58 PM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #377 None of these were all that improbable, at least to me. Looking back on it, I don't know why I didn't take Zard > Kratos because I've always been down on Kratos being a legitimately strong character in these contests. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:23:04 PM | message detail |
From: MarioSuperstar | #378 You know who else failed to double freakin' Sam Fisher? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1308 Honestly, that match reinforced my confidence in Squall > Magus! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:27:47 PM | message detail |
None of these were all that improbable, at least to me. Looking back on it, I don't know why I didn't take Zard > Kratos because I've always been down on Kratos being a legitimately strong character in these contests. But it was less probable when you compare that all Sora needed to do was be himself and hope Charizard didn't get everything and for it to be enough to defeat him. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
HaRRicH | Posted 9/19/2010 12:27:55 PM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #369 Harpoon > freeze! From: PartOfYourWorld | #373 I was in this boat, though I don't recall a lot of the board being in it along with me. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate EPONA here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/55150177 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:28:58 PM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #382 Yeah, I wouldn't have taken 'Zard > Sora/Bowser either way, but you were just talking 'Zard/Kratos there. --- http://img.imgcake.com/ultigardenpngba.png |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:29:34 PM | message detail |
Well, release date hype is difficult to estimate anyway. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png |
red sox 777 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:35:15 PM | message detail |
- To at least be equal to Pikachu - God of War 3 hype didn't at least boost Kratos more than HGSS hype - The release of HGSS to give Charizard the needed boost over Sora/Bowser This really doesn't look that difficult. It's all about where you placed Charizard, an unknown. Sora did turn out to be weaker than most expected, but Charizard beat Bowser badly enough that it probably wouldn't have mattered if Sora had been as strong as we'd thought. How on earth do you judge a prediction unreasonable? --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/19/2010 12:45:49 PM | message detail |
Even if it was 1 point, it's good to have some bragging rights! --- *is Dranze* Dr. Football swept me. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 12:46:22 PM | message detail |
From: MarioSuperstar | #387 Which I have! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:49:12 PM | message detail |
It
should be noted that I considered Charizard far and away the most
likely to get to Sora/Bowser and I considered it a calculated risk of
mine to take him over them. Because I do believe that Charizard is indirectly stronger than Pikachu. --- That was my prediction. |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 12:58:43 PM | message detail |
How on earth do you judge a prediction unreasonable? It's less unreasonable and more there were better options. Again now we can look back and say Charizard had a much better chance than we gave credit, but it doesn't change that at the time our view on Charizard was different. Another example while no one went for it Pac-Man > Ocelot did have a chance at happening, but required... 1. Pac-Man to have been old school SFF by Luigi (SFF between other companies was very debatable) 2. Bowser to have overperformed in the villains contest against Sephiroth, but not Ocelot Turns out the reasoning was correct, but Ocelot was by far the more reasonable option at the time. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/19/2010 1:03:18 PM | message detail |
I
had weird feeling about that match the closer it got. Luigi turned out
looking incredibly good, and people ignore that Pac-Man and Kefka had a
close match. --- *is Dranze* Dr. Football swept me. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 1:04:10 PM | message detail |
I was a big proponent of Luigi/Pac-Man old school SFF! I may have been one of the original proponents of it! Yoshi/Pac-Man just cinched it. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about PW/Jecht |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 1:13:59 PM | message detail |
I too was huge on old school SFF and Link/MM SFF, but there were people that didn't agree with it. I had weird feeling about that match the closer it got. Luigi turned out looking incredibly good, and people ignore that Pac-Man and Kefka had a close match. Almost everyone had that feeling as it got closer all the way up till when the picture was revealed where almost everyone knew Ocelot was screwed. I don't think I've seen a turn around in opinion as much as we saw back then and that was before those two were seen in action. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
red sox 777 | Posted 9/19/2010 1:16:54 PM | message detail |
Turns out the reasoning was correct, but Ocelot was by far the more reasonable option at the time. But it was wrong, so how was it more reasonable? In these contests, the strongest judge of an argument is results. I mean, it could be that a pick was unreasonable but ended up being lucky, but it's very difficult to show that matches are such situations. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2010 1:18:38 PM | message detail |
Ocelot
had a bad Villains Contest. The Pac-Man upset wasn't that unreasonable,
for sure, as long as you believed in old school SFF with Weegi/Pac-Man.
I thought the potential was there, but I would've fanboy picked Ocelot
regardless. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 1:23:32 PM | message detail |
But
it was wrong, so how was it more reasonable? In these contests, the
strongest judge of an argument is results. I mean, it could be that a
pick was unreasonable but ended up being lucky, but it's very difficult
to show that matches are such situations. Take a look in history, there were things that we know were wrong back then, but were considered to be reasonable or even correct. As time passes and we get more evidence our preception on the world changes. For example let's say Charizard/Bowser/Sora/Kratos were stuck in the same division in the next contest. It would be a lot more reasonable to suggest that Charizard would be more of a favourite. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
red sox 777 | Posted 9/19/2010 1:26:37 PM | message detail |
What we think =/= what is reasonable. People can and do have differences in opinion. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2010 1:31:54 PM | message detail |
But
the board uses past knowledge to make predicitons and while personal
bias may get in the way more often than not the favourite going into
the match is the most reasonable according to the board. If they
weren't reasonable we wouldn't have made them. --- Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru. |
red sox 777 | Posted 9/19/2010 1:42:34 PM | message detail |
There
can be more than one reasonable prediction, using "reasonable
prediction" as a prediction that the predictor feels is the most likely
outcome. This is because different people have different opinions. --- Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast. |
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/19/2010 1:43:19 PM | message detail |
Noms end on Monday, don't know if it's been said here or not. Sorry if old. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
