GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 906

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/10/2010 5:26:56 PM | message detail
Nominate: http://www.gamefaqs.com/pc/971618-umineko-no-naku-koro-ni



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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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RustyMrSaturn | Posted 9/10/2010 5:27:48 PM | message detail
the only reason i'd nominate it is to see it get absolutely get CRUSHED in vote-ins

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/10/2010 5:30:29 PM | message detail
A good reason!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2010 7:45:38 PM | message detail
Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal is a much better choice.
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2010 7:49:49 PM | message detail
Ratchet and Clank would also be weak but would be much less exciting because it wouldn't be nearly as weak as Umineko.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2010 7:50:52 PM | message detail
Ratchet & Clank and "Not exciting" don't mix!
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2010 7:53:11 PM | message detail
Man, I refuse to nominate Umineko......but I'll take joy out of SSBM/FFX/something I like putting up 90%+ on it.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/10/2010 7:54:33 PM | message detail
On the other hand, if it gets placed against Brawl, I wouldn't know how to vote. Anti-vote Brawl? Anti-vote Umineko? I can't choose.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2010 8:03:44 PM | message detail
Go for the all-time blowout record like a true stat nerd.
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GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 9:16:40 PM | message detail
And it is time.



The contest season has officially begun, and as such, my triumphant return to the Contest stats topic.


Been a while all.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 9:35:05 PM | message detail
Sure, whatever.
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:35:18 PM | message detail
Crono would blast Sonic to smithereens now......with blasting to smithereens meaning 53-55%.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:36:48 PM | message detail
Not sure I agree with that!

Why not? Or does the board still think Sonic would easily lose to Vincent/Squall/Auron?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 9:37:24 PM | message detail
In 2008, you had Sonic getting 46.15% on Auron while Crono narrowly edged Vincent. Squall's already proven to be 52%~ on Auron, and Vincent should be right around there.

Although it's unfortunate that we don't have a real read on Crono 2010 because Sonic did look a little better, for what it's worth.
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vcharon | Posted 9/11/2010 9:37:32 PM | message detail
I don't think Sonic could seriously challenge Crono at this point, but that's just how I feel about it. I'd take Vincent, Squall and Auron all over him for sure. I'd have to really think on a rematch with Tifa, it would be much, much closer this time.
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:>
red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:38:09 PM | message detail
Why not? Or does the board still think Sonic would easily lose to Vincent/Squall/Auron?

Why wouldn't he? Because he put up 54% on Kirby?
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:39:18 PM | message detail
I consider Sonic/Crono/Vincent/Squall/Auron/Tifa to be roughly equal to each other with the top getting less than 55% on the bottom.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 9:39:18 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #013
Why not? Or does the board still think Sonic would easily lose to Vincent/Squall/Auron?


...What compelling evidence does Sonic have for winning that match? 54.62% on Kirby?

Not to say he wouldn't, but 2010 didn't do him much favor.

A little, but not much.
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GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 9:39:21 PM | message detail
Ignoring the top 6



Crono
MM





Sonic



More importantly though.




Dark Link
Crono
MM







Sonic.



Put him in.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 9:39:42 PM | message detail
darn it, red sox beat me to it
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vcharon | Posted 9/11/2010 9:40:57 PM | message detail
It could easily be argued Sonic and Kirby somewhat share a fanbase, so you can't take that Kirby match and assume much from it. I'd still take the three guys to beat Sonic with 52%+ and Tifa/Sonic to be near 50/50.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:41:24 PM | message detail
Dark Link
Crono
MM


lol, I almost want Dark Link in the next bracket so he can flop based on some of these predictions.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 9:41:37 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #020
darn it, red sox beat me to it




For what it is worth, you gave the exact %
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 9:42:36 PM | message detail

From: GreatWallofUK | #023
For what it is worth, you gave the exact %


Well, I almost made red sox's post word for word until I decided to look up the exact percentage and add another line or two at the end.

Freaky.
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:42:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, after thinking about it, Zelda fans aren't that robotic. Otherwise Ganondorf would be stronger. One word can make a world of difference- see Liquid Snake and Solid Snake.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
vcharon | Posted 9/11/2010 9:43:12 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, I might would gamble on Dark Link > Sonic.
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GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 9:44:00 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #022
Dark Link
Crono
MM


lol, I almost want Dark Link in the next bracket so he can flop based on some of these predictions.




I'd put him in a match with anyone not named CLink and not think twice about it.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:45:38 PM | message detail
I'd put him in a match with anyone not named CLink and not think twice about it.

I hope you enjoy all the red in your bracket then.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 9:50:39 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #028
I'd put him in a match with anyone not named CLink and not think twice about it.

I hope you enjoy all the red in your bracket then.




I did not say I would take him to win. But I would put him against #3 (whoever the hell it is) and say he absolutely hangs right with them. Especially if #3 is Samus. I guess you could argue is #3 was Mario that he would not worry about Sff or anything, but with how much Samus gets owned by SFF when she meets anything Zelda.... I'd take Dark Link in that match.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 9:55:09 PM | message detail
Again...

I hope you enjoy all the red in your bracket then.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
vcharon | Posted 9/11/2010 9:56:11 PM | message detail
Uh... I think #3 is almost surely Snake at this point.
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GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 10:03:34 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #031
Uh... I think #3 is almost surely Snake at this point.




I'd argue everyone who voted for Snake should go pull a Paul Pierce.


In addition, I would argue that since almost all of Snake's power is from Brawl that Mario and Samus Sff him and take him out easy.



I'd argue that new mainline games beat the hell out of a PSP game that no one played who would not vote for him anyway.



But most important, I'd argue (read pray) that the voters are not ******** enough to vote for Solid again were he to meet the supremely superior Sephiroth.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 10:04:23 PM | message detail
why are you upset about this
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/11/2010 10:06:34 PM | message detail
Dark Link > Sonic is a lock, not a gamble.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 10:07:22 PM | message detail
In addition, I would argue that since almost all of Snake's power is from Brawl that Mario and Samus Sff him and take him out easy.

Ulti is that you?
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 10:08:07 PM | message detail
Dark Link > Sonic is a lock, not a gamble.

A lock for loss points.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 10:09:22 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #035
In addition, I would argue that since almost all of Snake's power is from Brawl that Mario and Samus Sff him and take him out easy.

Ulti is that you?




If Ulti agrees with that, all the better.



I do believe it was only myself, Red Sox, I think Ulti, and someone else I don't know who were convinved that RBY would be a top 10 game, where as most of this topic (you included almost sure) laughed at that. How does #3 taste?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/11/2010 10:11:59 PM | message detail
I thought very highly of RBY, I just thought higher of the original MGS.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/11/2010 10:13:11 PM | message detail
Before or after its round one match?

And just because you get something right does not make you immune on getting something wrong.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 10:14:04 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #038
I thought very highly of RBY, I just thought higher of the original MGS.




The original MGS is either 11 or 12 (I would guess, the top 10 is easy, the next ones are really difficult.) So you are not far off there.

Hell, let's have fun. Rank the next games in line after the top 10.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 10:15:27 PM | message detail
Guess who got Sonic > Crono, Sub-Zero > Master Chief, Hayabusa > Master Chief, and SSBM winning Division 128 right?

And also guess who picked Tetris > Legend of Zelda, Sonic 2 > Mario World, and had never picked L-Block to advance past a single round in either 4-way Character Battle?

Hint: It's the same person!
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/11/2010 10:15:42 PM | message detail
MWC's working hard to fill the gap left by BT. One Snake-doubter leaves, another Snake-doubter returns.
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GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/11/2010 10:16:05 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #039
Before or after its round one match?

And just because you get something right does not make you immune on getting something wrong.




Way before. Like when it was announced we were having it before. I said it would be top 5 since the beginning, even I did not think it would be as high as it was though, had you told me it would be stronger than CT or Melee I would have laughed at you.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/11/2010 11:33:48 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #042
MWC's working hard to fill the gap left by BT. One Snake-doubter leaves, another Snake-doubter returns.


You people and your doubting of OUR the Michael W Clark.


Anyway, a theory: Mega Man's sprite, not Pikachu or Crono's, is the strongest sprite round force on this site. Thoughts?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/11/2010 11:53:47 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #044
Mega Man's sprite, not Pikachu or Crono's, is the strongest sprite round force on this site. Thoughts?


Did him a lot of good against Sephy, Vercetti, Zero, Sonic, Sora, Samus, and the WCC.

The Hayabusa match is because Hayabusa's sprite is so terribly bad.

Seriously, is that the reason you brought that up?

Because there's no reason to think that otherwise.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/12/2010 12:11:23 AM | message detail
On a side note, I'm not sure if I should be proud or not that I could think of all of Mega Man's sprite matches without looking them up.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/12/2010 12:12:12 AM | message detail
Oh, and Mega Man had several sprite pics against Mario, too.

So I guess I forgot one.

Oh well.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/12/2010 5:19:56 AM | message detail
Even Turtle made an accurate bold prediction or two, so let's not get carried away here.

Dark Link will be strong because he's one of the most memorable boss battles in OoT, not because he's a dark Link. I have a feeling Dark Samus would bomb because nobody here gives a **** about MP2 or 3 (hell, they barely give a **** about MP1 as is), but Dark Link has OoT, and that alone should make him a solid midcarder and perhaps more.

The sad thing is if Dark Link ever does make the contest and kicks ass, people will blame it on being a Link clone rather than, you know, Dark Link's actual strength.

Don't think I'd pick him to beat Sonic, though. Sonic may be sinking, but he's not fallen off the map yet. I could see it being close, even artificially close (where normally DL shouldn't be that close, but weird circumstances in the vein of Samus/Tifa or Mario/Charizard make the match closer than it should be), but I don't think DL would take it.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 9/12/2010 5:46:06 AM | message detail
From: GreatWallofUK | #037
I do believe it was only myself, Red Sox, I think Ulti, and someone else I don't know who were convinved that RBY would be a top 10 game

I'm insulted...
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GreatWallofUK | Posted 9/12/2010 6:58:44 AM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #049
From: GreatWallofUK | #037
I do believe it was only myself, Red Sox, I think Ulti, and someone else I don't know who were convinved that RBY would be a top 10 game

I'm insulted...




You are not as bolstrous with your picks as myself and Rd Sox are N Girl, so it makes sense I would forget you said it.