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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 903

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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/19/2010 9:44:24 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #450
If you boost Ganondorf a bit you'd get the same percent as what Sonic would have got in 2006.


Against a weaker Ganondorf, I'm not impressed.
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red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2010 9:45:13 PM | message detail
A very different Ganondorf, yes. Kirby tells a better story (projected 62% in 2006 vs. 54% in 2010 actual).
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2010 9:45:42 PM | message detail
Although even that is better than the incredible awfulness that was 2008 Sonic.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
LOLContests | Posted 8/19/2010 9:47:04 PM | message detail
I would be surprised if Missingno didn't massively overperform against Seph.

A) Joke characters/underdogs have a tradition of building up in strength over rounds.
B) Forget about Seph's matches for a minute. Look at Cloud's. He was clearly being anti-voted, and based on this I see no reason to assume anything different for Seph, especially when all of his matches were disappointing as well.

The only thing Missingno has in his favor is that the match was a night match, which might have favored Sephiroth. I would expect Sephiroth to break 60% on Missingno indirecly and in a normal situation.
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red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2010 9:49:11 PM | message detail
Cloud and Sephiroth are always antivoted, so it doesn't really matter than Sephiroth was antivoted against Missingno. But yeah, he definitely overperformed a lot- there's a question in how much more he overperformed against Seph than he did against Crono due to rallying and having a day match though.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/19/2010 9:59:27 PM | message detail
more official art for samus

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CZqO5Z5uxU

awww

yeah
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/19/2010 10:07:55 PM | message detail
Oh right, I guess I could give my personal top 25, and I'll even throw in a random thought or two on each one.

1. Link - He's not going anywhere, probably ever, unless Cloud is an optional playable character in Skyward Sword or something.
2. Cloud Strife - Despite Samus and Snake giving him a fight, they still didn't really come that close to winning in the end. I think he's safe for at least another year or two.
3. Solid Snake - Admittedly, this is a bias pick more than anything else because I think Snake/Samus or Snake/Mario could go either way.
4. Sephiroth - I'll cut him a bit of slack, for whatever the reason. He could potentially beat Snake, Mario, or Samus next year, and it wouldn't really surprise me a bit. He had a bad year in 2004 and bounced back from it.
5. Mario - Again, bias pick. Plus, I think Snake had a more impressive 2010. Do I think Squall could get at least 55% on Big Boss (what would be needed based on a direct matchup to get Snake > Mario)? Well, that's a dumb question for me to ask myself, but yeah. Plus, I still like saying Sephiroth is Mario's Kryptonite until proven otherwise.
6. Samus Aran - She'll never beat Mario, of course, but Snake's not out of her reach and neither is Sephiroth. You could make the argument for her being indirectly 3rd, and I wouldn't argue against it other than the premise of "We've never seen a clear-cut case of rSFF yet."
7. Mega Man - As much as I want to take Squall to beat Mega Man, the Blue Bomber looked good enough to me to give him the edge, but I'd still probably pull the trigger on a Squall upset.
8. Squall Leonhart - You better believe I'm takin' Squall here, boyzzzzzzz
9. Vincent Valentine - Vinny's probably not too far behind him either
10. Crono - No disrespect to Crono at all, but he's certainly vulnerable.
11. Sonic the Hedgehog - Got lucky in 2010, hopefully won't get so lucky next time.
12. Tifa Lockhart - She could potentially beat Crono or Sonic and it wouldn't shock me, but I won't pick it...yet. I'll give her the edge over Auron because she's FFVII.
13. Auron - Yeah, despite Auron handing Sonic his sneakers on a platter in 2008 (and me picking it), I'm gonna rank him below the Blue Blur. It'd be close though. 8-14 is all pretty jampacked together, I think. After all, Squall/Auron was 52/48 this year.
14. Charizard - I'm not really sure where to rank this guy, honestly. Yeah, he had impressive matches against Bowser and Mario, but that Kratos match still gives me lingering questions about how strong he really is. We'll see. No disrespect here.
15. Luigi - Bias pick. Plus, Weegi actually did manage to beat Bowser in 2008, so it's not completely unjustified!
16. Bowser - Bowser really hasn't looked horribly impressive since his 2005 run, but he's still a tough cookie.
17. Big Boss - Bias pick, although I think one with some merit. He's got top 20 potential, at least.
18. Mega Man X - Don't really think he's THAT close to the original Blue Bomber, but he's obviously still a high midcard/near elite.
19. Pikachu - Another guy I don't really know what to do with. Depending on the day of the week, this guy could beat Sonic. Who knows.
20. Kirby - Don't think he's still that far behind Weegi or Bowser, so I'll put him here.
21/22. Zelda/Ganondorf - Don't know which side I lean here, but I consider them near equals, for all intents and purposes.
23. Ryu (Street Fighter) - I think he could honestly go as high as 15 (He did beat Bowser twice in 2007 with a bit of room to spare), but I'd have a hard time siding with him against Nintendo in a close match.
24. Dante - Well, he barely lost to Ryu last year, so he can't rank too far below!
25. Zack Fair - Don't mess with ZackFAQs
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Iamthekuzalol | Posted 8/20/2010 12:05:27 AM | message detail
My personal top 25

1. Link

2. Cloud

3. Snake (He had already outperformed Samus when up against the same opponent (cloud), there is no reason to think that he is weaker than Mario/Samus indirectly, directly is another story though)

4. Sephiroth

5 - 6. Mario / Samus

7. Mega Man (With his performance, he is not losing to any of the near-elites anytime soon.)

8. Sonic (Looked fine against Kirby and Ganon, might potentially lose to any of the near elites though i won't pick it.)

9 - 10 Squall / Vincent

11 - 14 MMX / Tifa / Auron / Crono

14 - 17 Charizard / Luigi / Bowser

18 - 20 Dante / Ryu / Yoshi

20 - 24 Big Boss / Kirby / Zelda / Ganon (It is sad that Ganon/Zelda have fallen so far now)

25 Zero / Leon / Kratos are all likely candidates for number 25.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/20/2010 5:20:55 AM | message detail
Well right now I'd have to assume Mario > Snake > Samus > Sephiroth, but as I have said I am in denial that Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario at all (because it would mean that this site has become Smash mania), so I think if Samus is stronger than Sephiroth it's a one way ticket to Mario > Sephiroth.

Haven't really given much thought to the bottom few afterwards, but I don't like analyzing Square characters.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2010 7:11:38 AM | message detail
I love how 2-6 is questionable. Another year is another reason for a FF7 drop, and if Cloud drops a bit, it could be enough for Snake or even Samus to overtake him. And who the hell knows where Mario could fit in all this. He has the potential to beat Snake and Cloud, and could just as easily lose to them.

We really should have a Snake/Mario match next contest, with the winner meeting Cloud, while on the other side of the bracket we have Samus/Sephiroth lumped in with Link.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/20/2010 8:23:39 AM | message detail
Yeah, feed Samus instead of Mario to Link. That bracket setup not only has the potential to humiliate Sephiroth in the raw x-stats (not something I would like, I would vote for Sephiroth over Samus now), but I don't mind seeing Link SFF Samus anymore (but I do mind him SFFing Mario. WTF is up with that?), considering that there are two Zelda games easily better than any Metroid game, one that's almost better, and two that are not far behind.
LOLContests | Posted 8/20/2010 11:31:25 AM | message detail
Unless Other: M is a smash hit, I don't think #2 is questionable. Part of Cloud's drop if he dropped at all probably came from whatever hit Kingdom Hearts, and it's not like Snake has any reason to rise. Isn't Big Boss the main character in the PSP game?

Speaking of which, has Other: M been getting bad previews or something? I never hear it talked about in GOTY contention, which seems odd. It's a new direction, so it should at least be given a shot.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 11:33:22 AM | message detail
Well, it's hard to say anything about Other: M until it actually comes out.
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LOLContests | Posted 8/20/2010 11:36:02 AM | message detail
This is all indirect, of course.

1. Link
2. Cloud Strife
3. Sephiroth
4. Samus Aran
5. Solid Snake
6. Mario
7. Mega Man
8. Squall Leonhart
9. Vincent Valentine
10. Auron
11. Tifa Lockheart
12. Crono
13. Bowser
14. Sonic the Hedgehog
15. Charizard
16. Luigi
17. Yoshi
18. Kirby
19. Zero
20. Zack Fair
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LOLContests | Posted 8/20/2010 11:37:50 AM | message detail
Forgot about X. Put him after Tifa, I guess.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 8/20/2010 6:51:45 PM | message detail
Different website different audience yada yada, but still want to share the result of yesterday's LL PotD as I found it to be QUITE interesting.


GOTY 2010? (so far)
Mass Effect 2 24.51% 582
StarCraft II 23.92% 568
Red Dead Redemption 16.51% 392
Super Mario Galaxy 2 8.38% 199
God of War 3 4.46% 106
Battlefield: Bad Company 2 4.42% 105
Final Fantasy XIII 3.33% 79
Other 14.48% 344
TOTAL VOTES 2375


Mario and FF will of course do much better here, and SC2 had recency and LL being much more PC-friendly, but still, look for ME2 to make some noise in December!

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charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2010 6:53:10 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surpirsed if SMG2 gets that much here.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 7:14:52 PM | message detail
Not expecting a whole lot out of Mass Effect 2. It wouldn't beat FFXIII straight up. I'm fairly confident in that.

GOTY polls are weird stuff all the same though.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/20/2010 7:27:03 PM | message detail
Time to join the top 20 fun train

Warning: The more yours looks like this, the worse you are at this whole predicting thing.

1. Link
2. Cloud
3. Snake
4. Mario
5. Samus
6. Sephiroth
7. Mega Man
8. Tifa
9. Vincent
10. Squall
11. Sonic
12. Charizard
13. Crono
14. Auron
15. MMX
16. Luigi
17. Bowser
18. Yoshi
19. Kirby
20. Ganon

Just missing the cut are Dante and Ryu. Until I actually sat down and made this list, I didn't realize how many slots the second-tier Nintendo/Square characters fill up. A whole 0 characters without either FF or a major Nintendo appearance. Sheesh.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2010 7:44:16 PM | message detail
ME2 decimated there...well-done.

It did seem to be a bigger deal with the gamers I know than FF13 was, too. GameFAQs isn't the place for anecdotal evidence alone, but with it and that LL-poll, it gives ME2 a better fighting chance. FF13's name-power will be a ***** to fight against, but ME2 can win that battle.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 7:45:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, LL is definitely indicative of GameFAQs at large.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/20/2010 7:49:47 PM | message detail
What else has been multi-platform this year other than ME2, Red Dead, and FFXIII? Even FFXII looked decently strong in GotY polls, so ME2's gonna need probably like 25% minimum to beat out FFXIII, especially if there aren't any other multi-platform JRPG releases this year.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2010 8:07:51 PM | message detail
It's a two-thousand vote sample where ME2 won and FF13 got a little over 3%. Of course it's not going to be a blow-out like that in the GotYs here and I'm not really convinced either way for this argument between them, but ME2 beat it seven-to-one there and their votes were likely mostly from RPG-fans. That probably says something of the RPG-community's opinion, and it's not like FF12's gotten a whole lot of respect since FFX in 2001 anyway...so, we'll see. I don't think FF13's safe, but I'm cautious about taking a side here.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2010 8:11:05 PM | message detail
Er, FF's not gotten much respect since FFX anyway...notFF12 since FFX.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 8:12:46 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #473
a two-thousand vote sample


All I needed to know.
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ZFS | Posted 8/20/2010 8:22:05 PM | message detail
It wouldn't be too surprising for ME2 to beat FF13. I'd almost be more surprised if Final Fantasy won, but it has the name going for it. Probably the only thing its got.
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voltch | Posted 8/20/2010 8:28:06 PM | message detail
FFXIII got waaaay too much hate, wasn't bad at all, i loved it, but damn the haters of that franchise are vocal.

but w/e FFIX foreveeeeeer.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 8:41:06 PM | message detail
Eh, it's not even that I think FFXIII will end up being some powerhouse as much as I don't think there's really anything else out there that I think can challenge it. It wins by default, as it were.
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ZFS | Posted 8/20/2010 9:04:49 PM | message detail
What are we talking about, anyway? The multiplatform GOTY poll, or the overall one? If it's the latter I don't think either one wins that.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 9:05:22 PM | message detail
Overall. I'm not sure what beats them. Galaxy 2 ain't gonna do it.
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voltch | Posted 8/20/2010 9:09:46 PM | message detail
RDR maybe, we know Halo Games bomb all the time so we can rule that out.

GTA:SA won a Goty poll so maybe rockstar will have more luck in those kind of polls here.
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ZFS | Posted 8/20/2010 9:11:25 PM | message detail
Oh, then yeah, I'd be shocked if FF13 was even close. I think it has a lot in common with RE5 -- a game that made a wave for a week or so early in the year and then was forgotten. I think Starcraft, RDR, ME2 will all beat I pretty well. Galaxy 2 and FF13 probably won't be too far apart, just in the middle of the field instead of up front!
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2010 9:12:00 PM | message detail
I know this site mostly has guys, but most people have 3 or less pairs of shoes?
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voltch | Posted 8/20/2010 9:19:27 PM | message detail
3 sounds like an ok number.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 9:20:30 PM | message detail
Tennis shoes, brown shoes, black shoes.

All set.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2010 9:26:55 PM | message detail
I was just talking about ME2/FF13, regardless of the poll they're in. I figure the winner between them brings home the gold anyway. SMG2 winning would take a miracle after the ways we've seen SMG bomb ever since it beat a LFF'd CoD4:MW in 2007's GotY, and I don't give a Western-themed sandbox-game by Rockstar a chance if the GTA-series doesn't mean much here anymore. Leave it between the two RPGs, especially since we've seen FF13 win a poll with some decent names already...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3858

...well, it wins if "I haven't played a single one of those games" isn't there, but whatever -- none of them had been out for a month yet.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2010 9:27:40 PM | message detail
Throw flip-flops into that mix!
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2010 9:41:08 PM | message detail
I voted 2-3, before I realized I actually have 5 pairs.

One advantage FF13 has is that it probably won't have anything to LFF with. Wouldn't be surprised if Fallout: New Vegas hurts ME2 significantly, and I think that if anything will be what gives FF13 the edge. Hell, FO:NV could even beat ME2 and then be the contender with FF13.

I would love to see ME2 vs FF13 one-on-one, as ME2 was big enough to make Shepard a midcarder and cause some waves here, while FF13 has had a mixed reception, though it should still have some strength here. FF13 would be the favorite, but I think in that case ME2 would be a viable upset pick.

Factor in LFF, though, and I think FF13 may have an easy ride to victory, at least in the Multiplatform poll. Of course, if the final is FF13/ME2/Galaxy 2...
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2010 9:49:18 PM | message detail
Tennis shoes, brown shoes, black shoes.

I assume tennis shoes are running shoes.

Sandals? Work boots?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2010 9:50:23 PM | message detail
Tennis shoes, running shoes, sneakers, whatever you want to call them.

I almost never wear sandals. Eh, work boots, I guess.
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voltch | Posted 8/21/2010 1:48:53 AM | message detail
an EA game being fav to win is a surprise.

Anyone else think that ME being released so frigging early works AGAINST it?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/21/2010 2:28:41 AM | message detail
I submitted a poll that got filed instead of read. I hope it gets used soon.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/21/2010 2:38:07 AM | message detail
Right now I'd assume Final Fantasy XIII > Mass Effect 2 > StarCraft II > Super Mario Galaxy 2 > Red Dead Redemption.

Real sad if SMG2 is going to lose so badly, because what I've played of it certainly looks GOTY-worthy. No, Best Game Ever worthy.

Speaking of which how would you assume Super Mario Galaxy 1 does against the GTA games? I'd certainly pick it over GTAIII, and I'm unsure of anything else besides.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/21/2010 6:39:34 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #491
an EA game being fav to win is a surprise.

Anyone else think that ME being released so frigging early works AGAINST it?


That's a good point, too. FF13 was also released early, but it stands out more because it's freaking Final Fantasy, whereas ME2 is more flavor of the month. Huge at the time of its release, but some of its popularity may have faded off, especially with other games like RDR popping up.

Still think it'll do well barring LFF.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/21/2010 8:33:49 AM | message detail
I don't think FO and ME would LFF very much, but maybe. Do we have any examples of WRPGs LFF'ing any in the past?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/21/2010 10:05:38 AM | message detail
Regular sneakers, cross trainers, winter boots, sandals, flip-flops, 2 pairs of dress shoes. I don't care about styles, I care about the seasons. Got a shoe for all of them.
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ZFS | Posted 8/21/2010 10:21:55 AM | message detail
I don't think being released early matters when we're talking about FF13. It has the same 'flavor of the week' thing going against it, too. I'd say the difference there is that ME2 had real acclaim, something FF13 doesn't really have.

It's some dire straits if these two are the site's top games of the year, though, yeesh.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2010 10:43:01 AM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #495
I don't think FO and ME would LFF very much, but maybe. Do we have any examples of WRPGs LFF'ing any in the past?


There's this, but it's hard to say anything definitive about it: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3477
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UItimaterializer | Posted 8/21/2010 10:43:55 AM | message detail
lol
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UItimaterializer | Posted 8/21/2010 10:44:05 AM | message detail
Play EarthBound.
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