GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 902

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Heroic Common Sense | Posted 7/23/2010 7:24:19 PM | message detail
Always wanted to make a stats topic with this account.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/23/2010 7:25:01 PM | message detail
C'mon, contest announcement!
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"That's crazy. I could never do something like that."
"It's not a question of can or can't. There are some things in life you just do."
LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2010 10:54:41 AM | message detail
Anti-purge edition
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"That's crazy. I could never do something like that."
"It's not a question of can or can't. There are some things in life you just do."
Lopen | Posted 7/25/2010 11:07:53 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #003
Anti-purge edition


That's the best thing ever. Why did you have to go and stop it. A purge before post 3 would've been amazing
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
vcharon | Posted 7/25/2010 8:16:42 PM | message detail
Kitana and Sonya would be fine I think. I'm skeptical of Mileena and Baraka somewhat. Kung Lao is fairly memorable I think and would do fine, probably better than Liu since people generally like him more.
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vcharon | Posted 7/25/2010 8:19:05 PM | message detail
Oh, and I have to believe Shao Kahn would be fairly good in this as well. I'm literally shocked he failed to make the villains contest over all that fodder.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2010 8:23:11 PM | message detail
Sonya Blade would do fine as long as she got a picture of Bridgette Wilson. Mmmm-hmmm.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2010 8:23:54 PM | message detail
Well before we try and get half the cast in we should start and focus on one character, even if the NRT doesn't side with us we could always create a nomination topic.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
vcharon | Posted 7/25/2010 8:25:17 PM | message detail
I'm planning to rally in Johnny if he can't secure a spot in this. I think he's the best candidate and has the most appeal.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/25/2010 8:30:00 PM | message detail
I can't really support a Johnny-nomination since I never liked playing as him much, but I do think MK could use another rep (Raiden or Reptile, preferably).


I could get behind Sonya on a personal level, but...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1788
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2038
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2513

...there's not a pretty picture painted there for her.
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Nominate EPONA for Character Battle 9:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/55150177
UItimaterializer | Posted 7/26/2010 1:42:24 AM | message detail
Raiden was always my second favorite behind Sub Zero. Scorpion 3, Sonya 4, then who cares.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2010 2:00:32 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour | Posted 7/23/2010 10:25:01 PM | message detail
C'mon, contest announcement!


I think there might actually be another Character Battle this year. The Character Battle that got delayed last year (due to GameSpot's contest) ended up being held at the beginning of this year. So there might be another one soon to make up for the lack of a contest last year.

However, the nomination phase needs to start very soon, no later than the first week of August if the contest is going to start in early/mid September.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2010 3:05:37 PM | message detail
We might get a contest, but I don't think it'll be a Character Battle.
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Calintares made a whole lot of geolocation x-stats
Congrats to Dr. Football for winning the Guru.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/26/2010 3:18:03 PM | message detail
I predict we'll get another character contest before the end of the year.

The twist is that the characters will all be female villains!
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Not Wylvane
HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2010 7:21:59 PM | message detail
I'm not feeling another contest this year, sadly...from GameFAQs. Think there's much of a shot with GameSpot returning this year though? They figured out a lot of things that went wrong last year quick, and they could pretty easily start over from a much better perspective now. We still need to see Snake/Link and Sonic/MC too, damn you!
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Nominate EPONA for Character Battle 9:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/55150177
vcharon | Posted 7/26/2010 7:25:02 PM | message detail
I'd prefer not, those are just a joke.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/26/2010 8:36:08 PM | message detail
Ugh, I didn't like GameSpot's contest at all. Rounds are way too long.
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red sox 777 | Posted 7/26/2010 8:53:14 PM | message detail
Yeah, having a ton of matches simultaneously running for a week is not exciting. I'd rather not see another one, but if there were one, I'd like to see Link that contest as he deserves.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
red sox 777 | Posted 7/26/2010 8:53:48 PM | message detail
That should say "I'd like to see Link win that contest"
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/26/2010 8:54:22 PM | message detail
Problems like round length can be fixed. If they fix the problems they had last time, I think it could be pretty interesting. Consering the all the trouble the contest caused, I'm not sure if they want to do another one, though.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2010 9:23:03 PM | message detail
The said they would look into changing the formats for perhaps other contests and understood their format was a problem. The same goes for the lengths of the rounds. Correct those two pre-contest problems and apply your during-contest lessons learned through-out last year, and GameSpot would be able to have a successful comeback.
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Nominate EPONA for Character Battle 9:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/55150177
Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/27/2010 2:03:06 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #020
Problems like round length can be fixed. If they fix the problems they had last time, I think it could be pretty interesting. Consering the all the trouble the contest caused, I'm not sure if they want to do another one, though.


Considering the attention the Gamespot contest got, I wouldn't count out another one. It's not like it was too much worse than our 2002 contest.

And I wouldn't put money on Link, even if Gordon turns out not to have a bandwagon again. I'm one of those who believes Mario would beat Link on Gamespot (and that was before Mario outdid Link against Gordon), and even if not, Snake shouldn't have much problem. And let's not rule out the possibility of Gordon support keeping strong next contest.

Don't get me wrong, Link is a contender to win, but I'd consider Snake to be the favorite next contest. Then again, with MGS4 having come and gone, who knows what will happen.
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Not Wylvane
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/27/2010 2:30:09 PM | message detail
Next several days worth of polls:

7/28/2010 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
7/29/2010 - Which search engine do you most often use?
7/30/2010 - What kind of Internet connection do you have?
7/31/2010 - Which scheduled August release are you most looking forward to?
8/1/2010 - Have you ever shoplifted a video game?

Apart from the poll on July 21st, I haven't been able to figure out what the poll questions would be for every poll starting with the poll on July 20th. Damn polls with original questions.

I'm looking forward to the poll on July 30th though. Should be some extreme trend changes (not quite as bad as the Soda poll) because Cable internet will collapse hard overnight. I'm basing this off of something I found out from a guy on another forum (he was from Germany) where he's never heard of Cable internet being available in Germany (it's mostly all DSL connections). If my guess is correct about DSL being the dominant form of internet outside the US/Canada, then Cable internet will collapse hard overnight.

Also, it would be good to see what US states have the highest percentage of dial-up users. Probably the states that are more rural (such as Kansas) than more densely populated states like New Jersey or Rhode Island.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 7/27/2010 2:40:53 PM | message detail
How are you predicting these?
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/27/2010 2:45:16 PM | message detail
How are you predicting these?

Well, take a look at this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2290

Take close note of this line:

See other results for this poll: 1/11/01 10/18/01 10/4/02 11/27/03 7/10/04 4/3/05 7/30/10

It links to a poll that has not been run yet, although it does mean that Bacon has inputted that poll into the database so it can be run on the appropriate day.

By taking advantage of that, all I have to do is use a download manager to download all of the poll result pages (excluding contest polls) to my computer as an HTML file. Then I use my computer's search feature to search for terms like "7/30/10" and "8/1/10" and see what results turn up. Any results that turn up will have to be viewed in my browser so I can see the poll question.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 7/27/2010 2:48:31 PM | message detail
Oh, good find. Didn't know Bacon decided on the polls so far in advance.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 7/27/2010 2:51:06 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #023
8/1/2010 - Have you ever shoplifted a video game?


This should include a ROM/emulator/torrent option.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/27/2010 2:54:01 PM | message detail
Well, I don't know what the options will be. The only thing that I can use that trick for is finding out the poll questions of future polls, and it doesn't work when there is an original poll question. I can't use the trick to figure out what the options will be, but it seems safe to assume the same options from last time will be used again.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/27/2010 4:43:44 PM | message detail
*snore*

*tag*
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(|| ' ' ||) ~Zen
. /|_|\ Freak out in a Moonage Daydream, oh yeah...
LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2010 9:00:49 PM | message detail
Ooh, nice poll.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/27/2010 9:06:13 PM | message detail
Wow, strange poll. "Pokemon vs. Digimon" had a hard time just trying to lead at the freeze, when I was probably expecting it to have an easier time winning this poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
aerithmetic | Posted 7/27/2010 9:06:41 PM | message detail
Kinda interesting how it has FF vs. Tales.. I guess when I think about it, Tales is the biggest non Square RPG series.. kinda sad.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2010 9:06:45 PM | message detail
Pokemon vs. Digimon more like GameFAQs users with bad taste once again gross
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Dr_Football | Posted 7/27/2010 9:07:15 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy doing its damnedest to carry Tales
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/27/2010 9:21:24 PM | message detail
It'll be interesting to see how close Pokemon (and Digimon.....) stays to FF (and Tales.....) by the end of this poll.

Also, SF/MK is the only answer here, people.
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Nominate EPONA for Character Battle 9:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/55150177
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/27/2010 9:22:30 PM | message detail
Pokemon vs. Digimon is just dying here. It has dropped about 2% since the board vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
special_sauce | Posted 7/27/2010 9:29:43 PM | message detail
Sonya Blade would do fine as long as she got a picture of Sephiroth. Mmmm-hmmm.

fix'd
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special_sauce | Posted 7/27/2010 9:30:43 PM | message detail
which makes me think - what would happen if there were NO PICTURES in the contest

I think Zelda would beat Link
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The return of...Me_Pie_Three
Kevin Butler is God.
LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2010 9:31:00 PM | message detail

From: special_sauce | #037
Sonya Blade would do fine as long as she got a picture of Sephiroth. Mmmm-hmmm.

fix'd


Bridgette Wilson > Sephiroth
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vcharon | Posted 7/27/2010 9:31:06 PM | message detail
MK vs. SF is the only one of these with any feasible chance of every happening, probably. Be ashamed if you don't vote for it.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/28/2010 4:12:41 AM | message detail
I was silly and I voted for Metroid vs. Castlevania.

The fallout from finishing a 2nd playthrough of Metroid Prime last Sunday is still with me I guess.
vcharon | Posted 7/28/2010 4:35:58 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy still working that night vote magic.
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Denzokuken | Posted 7/28/2010 8:02:30 AM | message detail
Tales must really suck hard if it's dragging down FF to... this.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2010 9:09:50 AM | message detail
Either that, or people played Dissidia and don't want another game like that.

But the fact that Marvel vs. DC is right up there fighting for the lead tells me one thing:

Fictional characters contest!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/28/2010 9:19:49 AM | message detail
Marvel vs. DC just took the lead back. Considering how easily Marvel vs. DC is winning the US, it is a lock to win this poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 7/28/2010 9:26:12 AM | message detail
Nintendo vs. Square would be over 50% here.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
red sox 777 | Posted 7/28/2010 9:34:13 AM | message detail
Also, as far as a fictional characters contest goes, I think this says good things about the video game characters. If Batman/Darth Vader/Spiderman were on Link's level, Marvel vs. DC should be blowing away Final Fantasy vs. Tales here (it's Tales). That it's not suggests Nintendo and Square are substantially stronger than Marvel and DC here- although it is true the poll is asking about a video game featuring these characters, so it's not entirely fair.
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Crono > Sephiroth. 7 years of waiting, and perhaps many more to go. Remain steadfast.
LOLContests | Posted 7/28/2010 9:54:21 AM | message detail
Also, as far as a fictional characters contest goes, I think this says good things about the video game characters. If Batman/Darth Vader/Spiderman were on Link's level, Marvel vs. DC should be blowing away Final Fantasy vs. Tales here (it's Tales). That it's not suggests Nintendo and Square are substantially stronger than Marvel and DC here- although it is true the poll is asking about a video game featuring these characters, so it's not entirely fair.

I concur. My first instincts were that this did not look good for Fictional Characters. Or maybe it's just that we've been overhyping comic book characters and/or no one really cares about the specific companies that they're from, and the movies/merchandise make up virtually all of their fanbase. At the very least, comic book (as opposed to comic book films) heavy characters like Gambit should be taking a hit from this poll. Geolocation does imply that there will be some pretty fun vote trends though, in regards to comic book characters.
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Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest!
LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2010 10:06:13 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy is always going to be the second strongest brand name around here, no matter what.

Plus, Marvel and DC themselves are essentially one entry anyway. It's not like Marvel + DC is going to be substantially stronger than Marvel or DC on their own, I think.
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"That's crazy. I could never do something like that."
"It's not a question of can or can't. There are some things in life you just do."
Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/28/2010 10:17:04 AM | message detail
Looks like Pokemon vs. Digimon is comfortably winning in the UK, nice.

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You're pretty good, Dr_Football.