GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 896

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 9:57:13 PM | message detail
Primary adjustments:

1. Mario was adjusted based off of his proportion to Samus in the 2008 stats
2. Ike and Falco were adjusted based off of their proportions to Mario in the 2008 stats
3. I gave Bowser and Luigi their 2008 numbers and stuck Yoshi right in between them
4. Adjusted Meta Knight off of his proportion to Ryu in 2008
5. Adjusted Sonic's entire division by setting Ken = Akuma, and I'm actually pretty happy with how it turned out
6. Adjusted Hayabusa based off of his 2008 number on Mega Man, which probably overrated him, but not by a lot.
7. Adjusted Mega Man based off of his 2008 number on Mario
8. Didn't like where Kratos was, so I bumped him down just a little below Sora arbitrarily, admittedly
9. Adjusted Leon Kennedy off of his proportion to Dante in 2008
10. Just gave Pikachu 40% on Snake and forgot about it
11. Gave Vincent his 2005 percentage on Squall
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 9:58:27 PM | message detail
Oh, right. For some reason, I didn't even adjust Knuckles! Hold on a sec...
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/22/2010 9:59:38 PM | message detail
About the adjustments, well, there's no way I would pick Hayabusa over Leon (maybe he could break 45%, but I don't see an outright victory happening).

Crash > Roxas, no.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/22/2010 10:02:31 PM | message detail
If you assume that Charizard boosted mid-contest, that solves your problem with Kratos. The only question is whether that boost will stay or it was HGSS hype that will fade. If we assume it will fade then Charizard should be bumped down relative to Kratos. Or we can assume GoWIII also boosted Kratos and he is that strong now. I dunno if that adjustment alone was warranted.
Lopen | Posted 3/22/2010 10:04:26 PM | message detail
Dropping Kratos is kinda dumb. Kratos vs Sora/Bowser was actually a legit upset chance for Kratos and I'm sticking to it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 10:05:56 PM | message detail
Well, I originally didn't like it because of it resulting in Tails > Knuckles, but once I adjusted Knuckles, that's not a problem. I still don't like Kratos >= Bowser though. I could adjust Charizard down somewhat as a result to make up for it.
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/22/2010 10:07:23 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #105
Dropping Kratos is kinda dumb. Kratos vs Sora/Bowser was actually a legit upset chance for Kratos and I'm sticking to it.


I'm with Lopen on this. Saying KRatos = Sora sounds about right to me.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 10:07:34 PM | message detail
Or rather, adjust the percentage Charizard got on Bowser, I suppose, but I don't really know what to do with that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 10:08:00 PM | message detail

From: Cyclo_Reaper | #107
I'm with Lopen on this. Saying KRatos = Sora sounds about right to me.


Then you're with me. Kratos is just barely below Sora instead of barely above Bowser.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/22/2010 10:08:40 PM | message detail
Oh. I didn't notice you dropped Kratos. That's why Tails seemed so much lower than he should have been.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 10:09:19 PM | message detail
I don't really like where Kratos is going to end up either way though. I don't think he's above Ryu and Dante, personally, but I'll just throw him back where he was.
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/22/2010 10:11:47 PM | message detail
I do like we have alot less characters under the 20% fodder line this time around. I think the vote ins really helped with that and I hope they stick around. No point getting a bunch of fodder in when we can get characters who actually can have some strength.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/22/2010 10:13:41 PM | message detail
Guybrush is inching his way closer to the fodder line. Someday he may actually win a match.
Then it will be time to vote LeChuck in.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 10:14:24 PM | message detail
Okay, adjusted stats, part 2!

1. Link – 50.00%
2. Cloud Strife – 46.46%
3. Mario – 45.12%
4. Solid Snake – 44.52%
5. Samus Aran – 43.85%
6. Sephiroth – 41.88%
7. Mega Man – 40.05%
8. Missingno – 39.47%
9. Crono – 39.24%
10. Charizard – 38.69%
11. Sonic the Hedgehog – 37.54%
12. Vincent Valentine – 36.78%
13. Tifa Lockhart – 36.72%
14. Squall Leonhart – 36.35%
15. Pikachu – 35.61%
16. Kratos – 35.22%
17. Auron – 35.04%
18. Bowser – 35.03%
19. Yoshi – 35.02%
20. Luigi – 35.01%
21. Kirby – 34.08%
22. Big Boss – 33.24%
23. Mega Man X – 32.72%
24. Ganondorf – 32.15%
25. Sora – 31.74%
26. Zelda – 31.70%
27. Ryu – 31.61%
28. Dante – 31.39%
29. Ryu Hayabusa – 30.77%
30. Zack Fair – 30.71%
31. L-Block – 30.46%
32. Zero – 30.35%
33. Leon Kennedy – 29.88%
34. Aerith Gainsborough – 29.68%
35. Cid Highwind – 29.60%
36. Fox McCloud – 29.36%
37. Master Chief – 29.19%
38. Big Daddy – 29.05%
39. Rikku – 28.95%
40. Vivi Orunitia – 28.88%
41. Sub-Zero – 28.67%
42. Jill Valentine – 28.48%
43. Amaterasu – 28.30%
44. Alucard – 28.21%
45. Knuckles the Echidna – 28.16%
46. Captain Falcon – 27.94%
47. Gordon Freeman – 27.93%
48. Commander Shepard – 27.77%
49. Duke Nukem – 27.66%
50. Miles “Tails” Prower – 27.49%
51. Lightning – 27.13%
52. Cecil Harvey – 27.03%
53. Kefka – 26.85%
54. Shadow the Hedgehog – 26.83%
55. Ike – 26.67%
56. Mewtwo – 26.59%
57. Riku – 26.56%
58. Ness – 26.51%
59. Tidus – 26.46%
60. Meta Knight – 26.36%
61. Ridley – 26.28%
62. Princess Peach – 26.12%
63. Chris Redfield – 26.03%
64. Zidane Tribal – 25.84%
65. Terra Branford – 25.80%
66. Frog – 25.77%
67. Jecht – 25.54%
68. Altair – 25.53%
69. Yuna – 25.42%
70. Pokemon Trainer Red – 25.41%
71. Revolver Ocelot – 25.34%
72. Donkey Kong – 25.25%
73. Weighted Companion Cube – 24.62%
74. Protoman – 24.61%
75. Phoenix Wright – 24.16%
76. Isaac – 24.07%
77. Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.02%
78. Darth Revan – 23.80%
79. Marth – 23.62%
80. Crash Bandicoot – 23.51%
81. Roxas – 23.47%
82. Vault Boy – 23.42%
83. Magus – 23.40%
84. Akuma – 23.26%
85. Ken Masters – 23.26%
86. Spy – 23.23%
87. Albert Wesker – 23.11%
88. Midna – 23.09%
89. The Boss – 22.75%
90. Captain John Price – 22.43%
91. Ratchet – 22.39%
92. Soap MacTavish – 22.22%
93. Falco Lombardi – 22.11%
94. HK-47 – 22.00%
95. Nathan Drake – 21.67%
96. GlaDOS – 21.54%
97. Arthas Menethil – 21.17%
98. Sackboy – 21.03%
99. Liquid Snake – 20.98%
100. Laharl – 20.47%
101. Heavy – 20.21%
102. Thrall – 20.19%
103. Ramza Beoulve – 20.02%
104. Prinny – 20.01%
105. Marcus Fenix – 19.93%
106. Balthier Bunansa – 19.62%
107. Simon Belmont – 19.36%
108. Axel – 19.23%
109. Lloyd Irving – 19.22%
110. Kratos Aurion – 19.20%
111. The Prince of Persia – 18.69%
112. Niko Bellic – 18.68%
113. Geno – 18.66%
114. Travis Touchdown – 18.60%
115. Claptrap – 18.42%
116. Neku Sakuraba – 17.48%
117. Banjo – 17.74%
118. Captain MacMillan – 16.65%
119. Guybrush Threepwood – 16.60%
120. Jak – 16.38%
121. Wander – 16.13%
122. Miles Edgeworth – 15.81%
123. Yuri Lowell – 15.64%
124. Professor Layton – 15.03%
125. Fawful – 14.31%
126. Eddie Riggs – 14.16%
127. Ellis – 13.45%
128. Sandal – 10.78%
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/22/2010 10:17:57 PM | message detail
I actually have a problem with the Mario adjustment. I think almost everyone agrees that Samus (and probably Snake) are both indirectly stronger than Mario. Since Samus and Mario were on opposite sides of the bracket this year, the stats should be able to reflect that. Mario > Samus in the adjusted stats bothers me.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 10:19:00 PM | message detail
I don't agree with Samus > Mario myself, and there's not much room to squeeze Mario in between Snake and Samus anyway. Besides, those three for all intents and purposes are essentially near equals. You can put them in any order, and I'd be fine with it.
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/22/2010 10:20:07 PM | message detail
I won't give Samus or Snake the edge over Mario till they actually beat him. Screw this "indirect" stuff.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/22/2010 10:23:53 PM | message detail
The entire point of X-stats is how all the characters match up indirectly. If you want to know direct have a 128-character round-robin. Until then, indirect is the best we have.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/22/2010 10:28:28 PM | message detail
I just realized that if we get enough Link backlash and a Link/Cloud semifinal we may be able to have Mario get his first ever contest win with the entire bracket involved.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 10:34:08 PM | message detail
Nah, if Cloud could ever beat Link, Mario's not turning right around and beating Cloud.
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Lopen | Posted 3/22/2010 10:37:16 PM | message detail
Why not? Cloud got close to Link this year, and Snake/Samus got close to Cloud this year. Slight hate boost and you have a Link that can be upset by Cloud and a Cloud that can be upset by Snake/Mario/Samus.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/22/2010 10:42:13 PM | message detail
Why would you put Sonic so high? Why don't you adjust him through Luigi/Bacondorf 2007?
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/22/2010 10:43:40 PM | message detail
Bacon better see this and realize that there is at least a possibility of a non-Clink winner and put Link and Cloud on the same side. Imagine that, coming into the contest realizing that we have 4 legitimate possible winners (Samus loses an SFF match to someone unless she faces a Snake who has just defeated Mario in the quarters-and I find it incredibly unlikely that Samus could have any Nintendo advantage over Snake that Mario wouldn't also have). And I guess people could argue for Sephiroth if they think FFVII anti-votes were such a huge deal and that they may slow down next year.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/22/2010 10:44:30 PM | message detail
Also, I really like the setup for our 4 Capcom near elites.

Zero
Leon

Ryu
Dante

Who wins?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 11:02:46 PM | message detail
I just don't see any way Cloud could beat Link but lose to Mario. It doesn't make any sense, but I guess it's not impossible.

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #122
Why would you put Sonic so high? Why don't you adjust him through Luigi/Bacondorf 2007?


I adjusted Sonic by making Ken = Akuma, which I'm pretty satisfied with, personally. He's probably a little overrated due to Ganondorf's picture disadvantage and the night match, but you just have to take those things in mind yourself.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/22/2010 11:15:33 PM | message detail
FFXIII has retaken the lead from "Haven't played."
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vcharon | Posted 3/22/2010 11:29:44 PM | message detail
"It's not the destination, but the journey." - SBAllen
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Haguile | Posted 3/23/2010 12:13:12 AM | message detail
Zack is going to get a boost next contest, he is appearing in Birth by Sleep. How strong will his boost be? I know Auron got boosted a good deal by his KH appearance, but this is a psp game so...

Also, could we get away with nominating both Squall and "Leon" from Kingdom hearts?
(I like Squall. Sue me.)
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I thought HE would be able to lead Link??
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/23/2010 12:21:29 AM | message detail
I seriously doubt that anyone whos getting KH: Birth by Sleep hasn't already played Crisis Core, cuz of the PSP demographic... so I don't expect much of a boost.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2010 5:10:24 AM | message detail
After Roxas laid an egg, I'm pretty sure that non-mainline handheld side games have no effect on people. Well, I guess Zack is the exception.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/23/2010 5:28:05 AM | message detail
Sephiroth number 6?Oh man...At least the N9 remains.Well okay except Sonic but he always was the weakest...
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/23/2010 5:36:35 AM | message detail
No, Snake looked weakest in 2004-5 (don't count '02 because Snake was behind Link/Mario SFF in that year).
MegatokyoEd | Posted 3/23/2010 5:43:02 AM | message detail
Based on those stats, the N9 is more intact than I figured it would be. I doubt Charizard and Missingno will be as strong next contest.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 3/23/2010 6:00:06 AM | message detail
Holy ****

http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/03/500x_dewbox.jpg

The next character to get their GAME FUEL on is none other than Big Boss.

http://kotaku.com/5499782/the-next-mountain-dew-game-fuel-experience-is

What is this world coming to?
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:04:14 AM | message detail
I think the Mario adjustment is pretty bad, considering that it's based on an obvious SFF match- if Mario/Samus is legitimate, you may as well say Link/Mario is legitimate and leave him where he is in the raw stats. At least set Mario = Samus or something if you don't believe he's below her indirectly as most of the evidence suggests (that lines up with assuming a constant Sora and Squall, by the way).
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:18:32 AM | message detail
I'm sorry, but in fact, it's not just bad, it's awful, and the raw stats would probably be closer to the truth. Mario didn't SFF Samus at all last year, but suddenly Link put 10 points of SFF to Mario when he's never been able to do more than a little before? You don't seem to even believe it yourself, as you adjusted Charizard and his whole division down instead of extrapolating them based on what Charizard actually got on Mario.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/23/2010 6:19:14 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #124
Also, I really like the setup for our 4 Capcom near elites.

MMX
Leon

Ryu
Dante

Who wins?


MMX > Zero
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/23/2010 6:23:38 AM | message detail
Snake 2k5 was the strongest Snake ever before the Brawl announcement. People seem to forget how close he was to the rest of the pack that year (Sprite Snake doesn't mean anything, unless you're trying to discredit 2k10 Snake even more).

http://kotaku.com/5499782/the-next-mountain-dew-game-fuel-experience-is

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/23/2010 6:42:25 AM | message detail
At least Big Boss is an awesome character who most definetely deserves to do well in these things. I just watched the scene from MGS4 where Big Boss disarms his best son and hugs him. That was cool.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/23/2010 6:44:52 AM | message detail
It appears red sox doesn't like the fact that Mario would beat Crono :p

Who would have thought!?
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:46:20 AM | message detail
Mario would probably beat Crono, but that doesn't mean he should be above Snake. Unless you're saying that Crono > Sephiroth, in which case I'm okay with this!
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/23/2010 6:48:52 AM | message detail
More Trivia:

Which two characters have so far been the only ones to fail in doubling their first round opponents despite a prediction percentage of over 90%? Hint: They've faced each other before.

Name the strongest character never to step outside of handhelds (this should be obvious and require no opinion, no?).

Name five characters who have had a noticeable overperformance or underperformance depending on their match pic.

Bonus Question: Who do you think is the strongest non-NNer who is not from an RPG?
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:49:35 AM | message detail
Link got 70% on Samus the last two times they met, but we don't hold it against her.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:51:02 AM | message detail
Right, we don't put Link at 70% on Samus, and we shouldn't put Mario at what he gets on Samus after SFF either.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:52:20 AM | message detail
Right, but he's pretty clearly stronger. Whether he's stronger than Snake is anyone's guess - I'd say not, this year at least - but Leon was trying to base it on something.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:55:47 AM | message detail
Are we seriously arguing 1% on the stats?
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/23/2010 6:59:13 AM | message detail
How in the world is he clearly stronger than Samus? 53.6% on Charizard is now equal to Sephiroth?

At best you can justify setting Mario = Samus, and I'll let it go at that, even though I think he's a step below her. There's really no justification for putting him above Snake or putting him that far above Sephiroth, or putting him above 45% on Link.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/23/2010 7:05:25 AM | message detail
55% on Pikachu is evidently better than Sephiroth.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/23/2010 7:08:39 AM | message detail
Indeed. Just like Crono will be stronger than Link after he beats Snake in the sprite round next year.

Edit: I noticed Leon didn't actually do what I thought he did, and actually based Mario/Samus off his 2008 stats instead of the actual 2008 results. That gives better results, but there was no adjustment made for day/night with regards to Samus and Sephiroth, so Mario ends up about the same distance from Sephiroth as using the actualy 2008 numbers and adjusting for time effects does.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/23/2010 7:10:05 AM | message detail
Not to mention, being even with Missingno. seems to get you pretty close to Sephiroth.
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