GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 895

Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:20:17 PM | message detail

From: CaptainStemol | #193
I like the idea of a "newbies" contest. Every other year or so they should have a competition featuring only new characters.

What about a 4-way where you vote against one character? Or a format where two matches are happening simultaneously, and you can only vote in one? Obviously, both of these ideas would throw everything we know about the contest out the window. I just think it'd be cool to have a new and different thing.


New as in characters who have never been in contests before, or new as in characters who have been in games within the last X years?

Former would be stupid, but I think the latter would be very interesting. Certainly wouldn't have nearly as much Nintendo representation, that's for damn sure! Plus it'd be neat to have a contest where Shepard could be considered an elite!
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/21/2010 9:21:02 PM | message detail
I wouldn't mind a contest for both characters who have never been in a contest and characters who have been in a contest, but have never won a match.

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DFF
creativename | Posted 3/21/2010 9:21:04 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #902
There's even more reason to remove FF7 and OoT in a Games Contest. There's a 0% either of them ever lose, a sub-1% that FF7 can beat OoT, and many many options for who could win the bracket if they were gone.

There's at least a 5% chance neither of them wins the contest, and at least a 15-20% chance FFVII beats OOT. The match was 52.5-47.5- hardly a blowout. There is plenty of room for lots of interesting matches in a 128 game bracket with those games still in there.


red sox the voice of intelligence as always.

Why are so many people around here so outright *bad* at logic and grasping how chaotic the mechanics of these things can be?

I'd say 20% is overestimating FF7's odds, I'd say 10+%.
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Congrats andylt for the best contest season ever (#1 Oracle, #3 leaderboard).
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:21:54 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #202
I wouldn't mind a contest for both characters who have never been in a contest and characters who have been in a contest, but have never won a match.


i'm pretty sure link would still have the most nominations for a contest like this
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:22:05 PM | message detail
Albion, Link fans are not that stupid. Do you really think we could win these polls as efficiently as we do, while deflecting all the blame to FFVII, with limited resources (Cloud could win a monthlong poll!) if we were that stupid? No no no, the Link/Nintendo fanbase is the best run political machine on Gamefaqs.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:22:25 PM | message detail
The topic seems to be ban happy for some reason.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/21/2010 9:22:55 PM | message detail
Link fans would have been auto-tuned to vote for Link in whatever bonus poll may have been done. By the time they realized their error, it would have been too late.

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DFF
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:23:19 PM | message detail
I expect tomorrow's poll to be either "What's your favorite release so far this year?" or, more specifically, "What are your thoughts on Final Fantasy XIII?" at the very least.

I'm curious to see how ME2 will do here relative to FF13. I think ME2 would be an easy second in the former poll, though its only other competition would be, what, God of War 3?
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/21/2010 9:23:46 PM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #208
I expect tomorrow's poll to be either "What's your favorite release so far this year?" or, more specifically, "What are your thoughts on Final Fantasy XIII?" at the very least.

I'm curious to see how ME2 will do here relative to FF13. I think ME2 would be an easy second in the former poll, though its only other competition would be, what, God of War 3?


HGSS.

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DFF
vcharon | Posted 3/21/2010 9:24:00 PM | message detail
They're just going through Link withdraw. Link isn't on the front page kicking someone's ass; they don't know what to do with themselves, so they make conversation about him here.
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:24:43 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #209
HGSS.


FFXIII was a bigger release. If theres any poll, it would be FFXIII... HGSS is only a remake and I don't remember tons of polls about FireRed/LeafGreen.
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creativename | Posted 3/21/2010 9:24:44 PM | message detail
Cloud could win a monthlong poll? I think he might rise a fraction of a percent if the early anti-voters can't vote twice but he's not swinging much % there, let alone winning, I think.
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Congrats andylt for the best contest season ever (#1 Oracle, #3 leaderboard).
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/21/2010 9:25:19 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #203
Why are so many people around here so outright *bad* at logic and grasping how chaotic the mechanics of these things can be?


I think they are just speaking from frustration. We've had only two games contests with two different winners. That's pretty similar to our first two Character Battles, actually, and no one was talking about retiring entrants in late 2003. There's no reason to remove either OoT or FFVII, at least not yet.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:25:21 PM | message detail
Link fans do no such thing. In fact we carefully study each poll of the contest, including non-Link matches, weighing all the potential effects of the match, and vote to maximize the expected probability of Link winning the contest. Clearly voting to ban Link from future contests would lower the probability of his winning future contests, so the Link fanbase would vote against that option.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/21/2010 9:25:54 PM | message detail
It would be Got DS?

And yes that is a likely stretch of polls.


I doubt it. We have April Fool's Day coming up in a few days and I don't think we could complete a stretch of console polls before then. There will definitely be an April Fool's Day poll.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:26:00 PM | message detail
Forgot HGSS, though I don't think even that could stand up to ME2. It is a DS remake, after all, and the recent Pokemon games aren't nearly as strong as the older ones.

I think HGSS could beat GoW3, though.
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
vcharon | Posted 3/21/2010 9:27:02 PM | message detail
Fewer joke characters will not be denied! Crono will have his vengeance!
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:27:06 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #213
I think they are just speaking from frustration. We've had only two games contests with two different winners. That's pretty similar to our first two Character Battles, actually, and no one was talking about retiring entrants in late 2003. There's no reason to remove either OoT or FFVII, at least not yet.


I agree with keeping them both in. We don't have enough data yet to say that FFVII can't beat OoT again.

But we have more then enough data on Link to make up our minds.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:27:45 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #215
It would be Got DS?

And yes that is a likely stretch of polls.


I doubt it. We have April Fool's Day coming up in a few days and I don't think we could complete a stretch of console polls before then. There will definitely be an April Fool's Day poll.


I hope the AFD poll has only one option, "Link." Doesn't matter what the question is, could be "Got PS3?" for all I care. I just want to see Link get 100% in a poll.
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/21/2010 9:28:59 PM | message detail
I hope the AFD poll has only one option, "Link." Doesn't matter what the question is, could be "Got PS3?" for all I care. I just want to see Link get 100% in a poll.

The April Fool's Day poll will have an invisible poll option. See these 2 polls:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3440
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3074
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vcharon | Posted 3/21/2010 9:29:00 PM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #219
I hope the AFD poll has only one option, "Link." Doesn't matter what the question is, could be "Got PS3?" for all I care. I just want to see Link get 100% in a poll.


This, please.
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:>
creativename | Posted 3/21/2010 9:29:39 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #1057
Fewer joke characters will not be denied! Crono will have his vengeance!


If 'joke character' means 'inanimate object/not a real character in the traditional sense' then yes Missingno is a joke - but if joke character means bandwagoning etc., then I don't think Missingno qualifies. His strength was almost all legit I think.
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Congrats andylt for the best contest season ever (#1 Oracle, #3 leaderboard).
kirbmasta | Posted 3/21/2010 9:29:48 PM | message detail
so uhh, is something wrong here?
my score says 366, which is odd in itself, but why am i nowhere on here
http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/7391/10720764.png
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb8_stats

or is that not updated yet, and im actually incredibly far behind?
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:29:50 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3857&region=USXWY

Wyoming does not like jokes bigger than they are.
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:29:59 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #221
I hope the AFD poll has only one option, "Link." Doesn't matter what the question is, could be "Got PS3?" for all I care. I just want to see Link get 100% in a poll.


I'd rather it have all the normal options of a "Got PS3" poll, except Link thrown in there.
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vcharon | Posted 3/21/2010 9:31:19 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #222
If 'joke character' means 'inanimate object/not a real character in the traditional sense' then yes Missingno is a joke - but if joke character means bandwagoning etc., then I don't think Missingno qualifies. His strength was almost all legit I think.


I don't really think people "get" bandwagoning or call it joke. It fluctuates too much, characters can gain and lose bandwagons. L-Block for example, but L-Block was a joke character because it wasn't a character, not because of the bandwagon. At least, that's how I've always looked at it.

Also, let the invisible option be Gordon Freeman or something.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:32:28 PM | message detail
Eh, I'd still prefer removing FF7 and OoT, just because they're a clear cut above of the competition. I definitely agree that there's a decent chance the finals could be missing one or both (assuming they're on opposite sides of the bracket, of course), but I don't think it's a big enough possibility to justify keeping them in the bracket.

On the other hand, the Games Contest occurs so seldomly that it doesn't make much sense to remove any game in the first place, so I'll drop the idea. I do think we should start doing the Games Contest every other year, alternating with either a gimmick contest like the long-overdue 128-character Female Villains contest or the Character Contest proper. Depends on whether Bacon feels like doing two contests in one year, which he hasn't actually done yet.
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/21/2010 9:32:32 PM | message detail
Hopefully, we get a "What is your Favorite FF?" poll, followed by a "Who is your Favorite FFXIII Character?" some time soon.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/21/2010 9:32:55 PM | message detail
my score says 366, which is odd in itself, but why am i nowhere on here

The leaderboard hasn't updated yet, but the prediction stats have.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/21/2010 9:33:19 PM | message detail
And here it is, folks! The moment of truth! What you've all been waiting for! The official 2010 unadjusted Character Battle VIII stats!

1. Link – 50.00%
2. Cloud Strife – 46.46%
3. Solid Snake – 44.52%
4. Samus Aran – 43.85%
5. Sephiroth – 41.88%
6. Pikachu – 39.89%
7. Missingno – 39.47%
8. Crono – 39.25%
9. Yoshi – 38.27%
10. Tifa Lockhart – 36.72%
11. Squall Leonhart – 36.35%
12. Mario – 35.43%
13. Auron – 35.04%
14. Charizard – 32.89%
15. Mega Man X – 32.72%
16. Princess Zelda – 31.70%
17. Ryu – 31.61%
18. Dante – 31.39%
19. Vincent Valentine – 31.28%
20. Commander Shepard – 31.10%
21. Zero – 30.35%
22. Kratos – 29.93%
23. Bowser Koopa – 29.78%
24. Sonic the Hedgehog – 29.77%
25. Aerith Gainsborough – 29.69%
26. Mega Man – 29.49%
27. Fox McCloud – 29.35%
28. Big Daddy – 29.05%
29. Luigi – 28.87%
30. Sub-Zero – 28.67%
31. Jill Valentine – 28.48%
32. Alucard – 28.21%
33. Captain Falcon – 27.94%
34. Gordon Freeman – 27.94%
35. Leon Kennedy – 27.26%
36. Kirby – 27.02%
37. Sora – 26.98%
38. Riku – 26.56%
39. Ness – 26.51%
40. Tidus – 26.45%
41. Ridley – 26.28%
42. Princess Peach – 26.12%
43. Big Boss – 26.10%
44. Chris Redfield – 26.03%
45. L-Block – 25.89%
46. Terra Branford – 25.79%
47. Jecht – 25.53%
48. Ganondorf – 25.50%
49. Pokemon Trainer Red – 24.98%
50. Revolver Ocelot – 24.91%
51. Protoman – 24.61%
52. Phoenix Wright – 24.16%
53. Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.02%
54. Darth Revan – 23.80%
55. Marth – 23.62%
56. Duke Nukem – 23.52%
57. Roxas – 23.48%
58. Magus – 23.40%
59. Miles “Tails” Prower – 23.36%
60. Amaterasu – 23.33%
61. Akuma – 23.26%
62. Rikku – 22.95%
63. Vivi Oruntia – 22.90%
64. Kefka Palazzo – 22.82%
65. Zack Fair – 22.61%
66. Captain John Price – 22.43%
67. Ratchet – 22.39%
68. Soap MacTavish – 22.22%
69. Shadow the Hedgehog – 22.12%
70. Frog – 21.90%
71. Cid Highwind – 21.80%
72. Lightning – 21.52%
73. Vault Boy – 21.37%
74. Mewtwo – 21.08%
75. Isaac – 20.46%
76. Weighted Companion Cube – 20.30%
77. Altair – 20.24%
78. Heavy – 20.21%
79. Thrall – 20.19%
80. Donkey Kong – 20.02%
81. Ramza Beoulve – 20.01%
82. Marcus Fenix – 19.92%
83. Banjo – 19.88%
84. Meta Knight – 19.80%
85. Balthier Bunansa – 19.62%
86. Midna – 19.62%
87. Simon Belmont – 19.31%
88. Knuckles the Echidna – 19.29%
89. Axel – 19.23%
90. Lloyd Irving – 19.22%
91. Sackboy – 19.19%
92. The Boss – 18.76%
93. Yuna – 18.72%
94. The Prince of Persia – 18.69%
95. Niko Bellic – 18.68%
96. HK-47 – 18.66%
97. Geno – 18.65%
98. Travis Touchdown – 18.59%
99. Cecil Harvey – 18.51%
100. Ken Masters – 18.45%
101. Ike – 18.35%
102. Albert Wesker – 18.33%
103. Arthas Menethil – 18.00%
104. Jak – 17.90%
105. Nathan Drake – 17.87%
106. Zidane Tribal – 17.79%
107. Kratos Aurion – 17.43%
108. Laharl – 17.40%
109. GlaDOS – 17.08%
110. Captain MacMillan – 16.65%
111. Liquid Snake – 16.55%
112. Ryu Hayabusa – 16.43%
113. Wander – 16.13%
114. Yuri Lowell – 15.65%
115. Master Chief – 15.58%
116. Neku Sakuraba – 15.19%
117. Ellis – 15.06%
118. Eddie Riggs – 14.15%
119. Guybrush Threepwood – 14.11%
120. Prinny – 13.77%
121. Falco Lombardi – 13.44%
122. Professor Layton – 12.77%
123. Claptrap – 12.68%
124. Crash Bandicoot – 12.55%
125. Miles Edgeworth – 12.41%
126. Spy – 12.40%
127. Fawful – 11.35%
128. Sandal – 8.89%
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vcharon | Posted 3/21/2010 9:33:47 PM | message detail
I think just periodically sticking "Link" in random polls throughout the year would be humorous. Maybe once every few months, no sort of sense or reason about it. I just want to see if he could win all of them.
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:>
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:33:49 PM | message detail

From: Cyclo_Reaper | #225
I'd rather it have all the normal options of a "Got PS3" poll, except Link thrown in there.


That would be amusing. I bet Link would triple PS3 owners!
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
Jman_maximum | Posted 3/21/2010 9:34:28 PM | message detail
Missingno can remain

he won't be nearly as strong next year, as we saw with L Block

plus it was quite obvious that Crono would have won if it had been a standard 24 hour match.
kirbmasta | Posted 3/21/2010 9:34:39 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #229
my score says 366, which is odd in itself, but why am i nowhere on here

The leaderboard hasn't updated yet, but the prediction stats have.


ohh, damn, that means im probably going to be a good 64 behind
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:34:40 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #230
47. Jecht – 25.53%
48. Ganondorf – 25.50%


victory
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Achromatic | Posted 3/21/2010 9:35:07 PM | message detail
113. Wander – 16.13%
114. Yuri Lowell – 15.65%
115. Master Chief – 15.58%
116. Neku Sakuraba – 15.19%
117. Ellis – 15.06%
118. Eddie Riggs – 14.15%

One is not like the others.
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vcharon | Posted 3/21/2010 9:35:09 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:35:11 PM | message detail
Hurray! Now there's a truly excellent list. All hail the new Noble Nine:

Link
Cloud
Snake
Samus
Sephiroth
Pikachu
Missingno
Crono
Yoshi
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/21/2010 9:35:39 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #230
113. Wander – 16.13%
114. Yuri Lowell – 15.65%
115. Master Chief – 15.58%


Just giving it its own post.
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Watch and you'll see... Dr_Football own me... in the Guru Contest!
vcharon | Posted 3/21/2010 9:35:50 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #230
117. Ellis – 15.06%


Adjustments needed immediately.
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:>
tgs2 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:36:01 PM | message detail
Yoshi> Mario is looking a bit hilarious there.
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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:36:04 PM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #236
113. Wander – 16.13%
114. Yuri Lowell – 15.65%
115. Master Chief – 15.58%
116. Neku Sakuraba – 15.19%
117. Ellis – 15.06%
118. Eddie Riggs – 14.15%

One is not like the others.


Yeah, ones female.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:36:19 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #228
Hopefully, we get a "What is your Favorite FF?" poll, followed by a "Who is your Favorite FFXIII Character?" some time soon.


Both would be great. The former would give us a sense of not only where FF13 fits in the franchise pecking order, but where FF7 is now relative to the other games and if the Dissidia boost helped the old-Square games any. And obviously, favorite FF13 character gives us an idea of who to rally for, unless you're like me and plan to nominate all six characters anyway!
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:37:12 PM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #243
unless you're like me and plan to nominate all six characters anyway!


how could someone nominate hope
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:37:26 PM | message detail
From: Achromatic | #236
113. Wander – 16.13%
114. Yuri Lowell – 15.65%
115. Master Chief – 15.58%
116. Neku Sakuraba – 15.19%
117. Ellis – 15.06%
118. Eddie Riggs – 14.15%

One is not like the others.


Yeah, ones female.


none of those characters are female ;>_>
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:38:08 PM | message detail
how could someone nominate hope

I'd consider it. Hope is pretty good after Palumpolum.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:38:29 PM | message detail

From: Cyclo_Reaper | #244
how could someone nominate hope


Hope's my favorite character of the bunch!

You should really be asking how someone could nominate Fang!
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/21/2010 9:39:03 PM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | #245
none of those characters are female ;>_>


http://th04.deviantart.net/fs40/300W/i/2009/051/f/2/Tg__ed_Yuri_Lowell_by_Rezuban.png

From: Not_Wylvane | #247
Hope's my favorite character of the bunch!

You should really be asking how someone could nominate Fang!


a hot character who has bahamut as her summon?

nuff said
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/21/2010 9:40:00 PM | message detail
I think a Games contest with Ocarina and FFVII with the same format would be pretty great. We could even have a gauntlet at the end with FFVII and Ocarina if necessary. The field would be RBY, LttP, and Mario 64 as the top three with CT, Mario World, Mario 3, FFX, Melee, and Brawl in the wings...that's ridiculously wide open. Furthermore, because the last games contest was so riddled with LFF due to an abundance of Nintendo in the lower half and Ocarina in the top half, we don't have any clear idea where anything stands, so pretty much every round figures to be good even in a bad bracket. 128 1v1 with no generational divide would be all sorts of awesome.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/21/2010 9:40:13 PM | message detail
Why nominate someone whose summon is Bahamut when you could just nominate the dragon itself?
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Not Wylvane
Dr Football Factor'd.