GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 894
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:29:47 PM | message detail |
Retire Link. He'll never lose again, barring joke bandwagons. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man. Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Vincent, Kirby, Missingno, Tifa, et al group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters recently. The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ If anyone is fit to shine, it is I. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:30:36 PM | message detail |
Did I hit a time warp and go back to post-2002! --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this Dr_Football we on!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:41:50 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:41:55 PM | message detail |
Cloud gettin' ready to start that comeback. --- If you're seeing this sig, Dr_Football won the Guru Contest! |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 10:42:00 PM | message detail |
Samus
and Snake are already pretty damn close to one another through Cloud,
though. Doubt 24 hours would change Samus's percentage significantly,
and if it did, it'd probably be to her favor anyway. Now this is simply wrong. Cloud would've broken 53.5% 24 hours match for sure. Probably pushed 54%. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:42:19 PM | message detail |
Zelda Wii will likely hit this year's E3. Then the TP hype-wagon starts all over again. This Link is 2003 Link all over again, except this time Cloud's much weaker. Wait until we get a 2004-level boost from Zelda Wii hype. I'm sure then people will be rallying for Link to get removed from the contest! Plus we may finally get Ganondorf > Sonic! --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:42:51 PM | message detail |
One more projection before I go to sleep: Based on Link/Cloud 2006, Link wins with 53.03%. Link needs 53.94% to hand Cloud his greatest 1v1 defeat ever. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:43:04 PM | message detail |
Plus we may finally get Ganondorf > Sonic! Gross. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this Dr_Football we on!" |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/20/2010 10:43:21 PM | message detail |
Tag --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:43:46 PM | message detail |
Track Topic. --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
PiGuy96 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:44:13 PM | message detail |
Yeah,
a fairly reasonable scenario for Samus would have been 46%. But that's
still pretty close to Snake and she's got more to look forward too. --- Mustache...and Football... |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 10:44:24 PM | message detail |
Point being, either Samus + Snake > Mario or Mario > Samus + Snake. And going with the above - not true. 53.75% is a relatively conservative 24-hour estimate for Cloud. Sephiroth would've gotten close to or hit 48% on Snake in a 24 hour match. Samus=Sephiroth, not Snake. Snake is a clear step ahead of Samus. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Dr_Football | Posted 3/20/2010 10:45:01 PM | message detail |
I'm pretty sure the #1 perk about winning the guru so far is Leon's sig rotation I'm enjoying it greatly --- http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png http://img.imgcake.com/drfootballpngru.png |
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:45:37 PM | message detail |
--- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Dr_Football |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:45:44 PM | message detail |
You
know, the bottom half of the stats isn't going to look that bad at all.
There wasn't as much weirdness there. All the stuff that needs
adjusting is in the upper half. I guess I'll try my hand at that some
time after the contest is over. --- Dr_Football is the best Guru winner ever created. |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/20/2010 10:45:48 PM | message detail |
It's Dr Football. *salutes* --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:46:09 PM | message detail |
From: Dr_Football | #013 Glad to hear it! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...Dr_Football." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:47:10 PM | message detail |
And I think the trickiest adjustment is Pikachu. Not sure what to do with him. --- Dr_Football is the best Guru winner ever created. |
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/20/2010 10:48:49 PM | message detail |
Yeah
and whatever joker put Charizard in the near-elite list needs to never
make a stats topic again. I'm about to remove that part of the first
post outright. Charizard only did slightly worse on Mario than Missingno. did on Sephiroth. Considering Mario may actually be stronger than Sephiroth, Charizard being on the Near-Elite list isn't such a strange thing if Missingno. is there. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:49:30 PM | message detail |
From: creativename | #012 Um, Samus is a Nintendo character and Snake would lose that support against her. We've seen this already. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.· SOLDIER! NEVER THINK, YOU ARE NOT SO GOOD AS YOU THINK! |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:50:32 PM | message detail |
From: Team Rocket Elite | #019 So we should Pikachu on there, too. Hell let's just put "Pokemon". --- "Spoil FFX for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if Jecht's going to be another Auron or another Sin." -Soul on PW vs Jecht |
xp1337 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:51:23 PM | message detail |
Hell let's just put "Pokemon". If you do, make sure to add "(except Mewtwo rofl)" to it. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? SC2k10 (331/384) Link v Cloud |
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/20/2010 10:52:26 PM | message detail |
Um, Samus is a Nintendo character and Snake would lose that support against her. We've seen this already. That was a single incidence that happened quite a while ago now. It was also before Snake actually appeared in the game. Even if this was true then, it doesn't mean it's true now. Even if it still is, we have no idea if the severity of the effect would be the same. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:52:49 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #018 It's obvious that that match was 100% legitimate and Pikachu (and by extension, Shepard) really are that strong! Seriously, even four-ways would be useless considering how much Snake overperformed in 2008, and Pikachu's four-pack had one newcomer, one character who had a major boost, and Banjo, who may or may not have been SFFed, so no help there. Solid **** was the main factor, but did sprite Pikachu really cause the rat to boost a bit? Even comparing him to other Pokemon is tricky, considering how ridiculous Charizard looked at the end. If anything, Missingno is the most reliable of the three! Good luck with that one! --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 10:53:39 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #058 I'd suggest either Pikachu = Squall, because he did outperform Squall do kinda 'earned' at least a tie - even though I doubt any of us picks Pikachu to beat Squall, unless maybe Gameboy sprite Pikachu or something. Or if you wish a more aggressive adjustment, then adjust him to Snake with 60-62%, as that seems about where he should be. From: UltimaterializerX | #060 ...oh boy! :) --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:55:09 PM | message detail |
I'll
propose an idea I mentioned awhile back about that near-elite list.
Everybody, name and rank the top five characters you can think of that
are not in the Noble Nine. When everybody has their say-so, tally them
accordingly and put the top five or so in that list. That way there
will be little *****ing about it from there. I'll start: 1) Missingno 2) Tifa 3) Vincent 4) Squall 5) Charizard Harder than I thought it'd be. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:56:02 PM | message detail |
We really should see Snake/Samus again. It's obvious Snake is stronger indirectly, but would Brawl rSFF play a big part? Man, having a third place match between Mario and Snake would really clarify a lot of things, like whether Mario has a shot at Cloud, whether Snake can have his Nintendo fanbase leeched, where Mario stands compared to Samus, and also who'd win between Mario and Snake. --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/20/2010 10:56:12 PM | message detail |
So we should Pikachu on there, too. Hell let's just put "Pokemon". I'd say leave it alone for now. It looks okay for the moment. We'll figure the details after we've had a few days to look over everything that has happened in the contest. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:56:25 PM | message detail |
better idea about the near-elite list get rid of it. Noble Nine is a defined concept which makes sense in the first post. "near-elite" is no more necessary than "high fodder". --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Dr_Football |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 10:57:01 PM | message detail |
From: Team Rocket Elite | #103 Yeah I didn't think anything really needed to be said but, you said it. Snake has appeared in Brawl since then but - more importantly - he's had MGS4. I think MGS4 has done quite a lot for him. Considering he hadn't been the sole star of any game since the first MGS, which is only a year younger than FF7; nor truly appeared in a console MGS game since the poorly received MGS2 (unless you count Twin Snakes, which no one does). --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:57:21 PM | message detail |
Top Five non-N9ers? Christ, I wouldn't even know where to start. That's just one giant cluster**** waiting to happen. --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:58:19 PM | message detail |
Well,
the thing about Pikachu is that we haven't been able to get a clear
read on him in any of the last three contests. He's a total mystery. --- "Stay with me until the end, Dr_Football. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:58:50 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #020 LOL Samus SFFing people --- "The great GF...Dr_Football." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:59:05 PM | message detail |
The past hour, Link fell half a percent. How does that compare to Link/Cloud 06, or any of Link and Cloud's matches this year? --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/20/2010 10:59:44 PM | message detail |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/21/2010 1:47:10 AM | message detail And I think the trickiest adjustment is Pikachu. Not sure what to do with him. Solid **** is probably worth about 40-42% on regular Snake. Pick a value that you think seems reasonable. Trying to find what Solid **** is worth on regular Snake is hard because there are no characters that have gone up against both Solid **** and regular Snake besides L-Block. And the L-Block matches can't be trusted at all for comparing the 2 Snakes to each other. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 11:00:24 PM | message detail |
After two hours in 2006, Link had 56.97%. So yeah, Cloud's nearly a full percent ahead of that pace now. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Dr_Football' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 11:00:38 PM | message detail |
From: Not_Wylvane | #154 Hmm. In 2k6, Link fell...well lookee that. Half a percent! Huh. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2566&num=2 --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 11:01:29 PM | message detail |
And with that update, 0.99% ahead of where he was then. --- "I couldn't stand a Dr_Football without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 11:03:10 PM | message detail |
Even
though Link is actually a full % behind his pace from back then, I
still think he ends up higher than back then, because Cloud's day vote
has fallen off. But looks like Link will have more trouble getting 55% than I was just thinking before seeing that. Bravo Cloud! (so far anyway) *golf clap for Cloud* --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 11:04:04 PM | message detail |
So
all of Link and Cloud's crappy performances early on, then Cloud
struggling against Samus and Snake while Link SFFed the hell out of his
opponents, and the end result... is Link doing 1% worse on Cloud. If it weren't for Zelda Wii and the lack of new games for the characters Link couldn't SFF, I might consider Link vulnerable! --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
Lopen | Posted 3/20/2010 11:04:58 PM | message detail |
So yea I think we should have a tag team contest Pair Link with Tingle and Cloud with Seph Only way Link ever loses again --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
PiGuy96 | Posted 3/20/2010 11:05:08 PM | message detail |
I
should think Link/Mario would be the most controversial adjustment. I'd
take him behind Snake and ahead of Samus and Sephiroth but it's really
hard to justify anything for him. You can't use Falco, you can't use
Big Boss, you can't use Ike, and you can't use Mega Man. You can try
and guess from someone in Charizard's division even though that match
is suspect, but Bowser and Sora say different things. --- Mustache...and Football... |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/20/2010 11:05:44 PM | message detail |
Cloud's day vote has fallen off. Hmm... I wonder... He got Ryu during the day, and he just got through with Snake, but both of those guys have bad day votes. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/20/2010 11:06:21 PM | message detail |
Before
I forget again and in case you missed it the first time, creativename I
put the missing updates I collected from the Link vs Mario match here: http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/LinkvsMarioUpdates.txt Times are PDT so you'll need to add 3 hours to the listed times. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 11:07:04 PM | message detail |
What
are the chances Cloud's trends are more extreme now than in 2006? FF7's
day-vote in BGE2 was no longer what we once expected from it and the
KH-series has had an underwhelming influence on the contest, so I don't
know if this night-vote is necessarily indicative of what'll happen the
rest of the match once day-light hits. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 11:08:28 PM | message detail |
Cloud's day vote already fell before this year. Not necessarily any from last character contest to this one. From: PiGuy96 | #202 I see no problem with Samus=Mario. From: Team Rocket Elite | #204 Ah cool :) I'll add that thanks. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 11:08:57 PM | message detail |
I
was thinking about giving Mario what he had on Link in the 2008 stats
(39.98%), which would put him slightly ahead of Sephiroth but decently
behind Samus and Snake. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...Dr_Football." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 11:09:22 PM | message detail |
Excuse me, 40.02%, not 39.98%. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the Dr_Football, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 11:10:03 PM | message detail |
Also,
with all the adjusting talk, I politely request to have no official
adjusted stats. Flashbacks to BGE1's adjusted stats come to mind. I'm all for trying adjusted stats, but I'd rather not see them advertised or relied upon in any normal manner. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 11:12:01 PM | message detail |
From: Lopen | #041 God damn, that would be a cruel, cruel match. But it's not like I'm one of those people who has to vote every match. Hell, I don't even think I bothered voting in Cloud/Snake! --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
