GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 893
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:24:06 PM | message detail |
Giving
Link a bye until the standard bracket completes its championship allows
for up to seven potentially more interesting matches. That's fine, and
I agree with many people that I think that would be the coolest thing
to do. That said, this, contest has been damn good despite Link's
predictable victories. I don't know if we've had a contest this good
since 2005's Character Battle. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/20/2010 10:24:19 PM | message detail |
Removing
Link is the wrong thing to do. I mean, for us, the bracket making, stat
watching club, maybe it's good, but 58% of people on the site want to
vote for Link here. It doesn't make sense to listen to the vocal
minority when most people are against the idea. He's popular, people
want to vote for him, and he only takes up what... seven matches? Who
cares? I've already said several times that removing Link is the worst thing for people who follow the contests. All of the sudden Joe Blow who missed 15 matches in the first 3 rounds does better than you because he properly guessed a tossup final. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
M13_SF | Posted 3/20/2010 10:24:27 PM | message detail |
won't cloud be in KH3? also there is still a chance of that FFVII remake, square never really completely denied it. |
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/20/2010 10:24:37 PM | message detail |
From 2k5: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2131 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2130 Mario would only get 39.58% on Link before SFF. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3856 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3855 It's not a good example right now, but keep an eye on this as the match goes on. Even now Snake is up to 41.64% on Link and that should go up a fair bit by the end of the match. Link may still be out of range now, but that might not last too much longer. He's clearly lost a step over the years. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/20/2010 10:24:38 PM | message detail |
There would have been no debate, everyone would have taken Cloud. I would have been willing to pick Mario over Cloud based on his performance this contest. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 10:24:58 PM | message detail |
You
know, I was just about to post how this discussion is interesting, but
Black Turtle and Cyclo Reaper just make their sides look bad. Then I
thought "let me check if Cylco Reaper is the alt of someone". And sure
enough...I'd forgotten it was Albion :\ From: red sox 777 | #2154 Maybe it's 2nd grade reasoning. "Let's see what would make a great match...oh I know Link vs. Mario! Everybody wants to see that right?" From: LeonhartFour | #2160 He meant pre-contest. Taking Link out wouldn't have sparked any 'who wins' debate - Cloud would've been the auto-pick. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:25:01 PM | message detail |
I had Snake > Cloud in my bracket. Doesn't matter people wouldn't debate it, they would have laughed and gone on their merrily little way. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 325/384 - Today's Winner: Link |
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:25:22 PM | message detail |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #452 Tell me. Would NCAA Tournament Brackets be better if there was a default winner in the final, and everyone would pick up to then? --- http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:25:26 PM | message detail |
From: MoogleKupo141 | #441 Didn't stop CJayC from removing him in 2005 and 2006. Though you still bring up a good point, and it feels like Bacon's much more interested in bringing in hits, which Link does. Link probably wouldn't be going anywhere even if he broke 60% on Cloud. --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/20/2010 10:26:02 PM | message detail |
I would definitely take Mario over Cloud now, but I wouldn't have before the contest. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:26:20 PM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #457 I also had Snake > Cloud in the final two matches of 2008 contest, and finished 4th in the guru and 15th on the final leaderboard. I think I had final laugh then. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:26:46 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #436 I actually think that's the contest he won a prize in. --- MUSIC CAN BE OBJECTIVELY DEFINED AND ITS QUALITY EMPIRICALLY MEASURED BY THE INEQUALITY [WHAT I LIKE > WHAT YOU LIKE]. -Jaraqua Lefty Jones |
paraboxx | Posted 3/20/2010 10:27:12 PM | message detail |
Give
Link a bracket half with some lower tier NNers and high-tier elits.
Stick Samus/Snake/Cloud/Mario in the bottom half and let them duke it
out. [actually a pretty awesome bracket] Most of us aren't saying you can't have a good bracket with Link in it. We're saying that based on past history, we won't be so lucky. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/20/2010 10:27:16 PM | message detail |
From: Cyclo_Reaper | #458 That's different, because there's no solid backing of past-performances when making one of those. You can't really analyze previous contests, because in 4 years the whole team changes, coaches change etc. Sports are way more variant than these polls are. That's a terrible example. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:27:31 PM | message detail |
Giving
Link a bye until the standard bracket completes its championship allows
for up to seven potentially more interesting matches. Well, unless you replace Link with an awful 1 seed, I doubt you get seven potentially interesting matches. I mean, if you move Squall up to a 1 seed in Link's division...Squall/Thrall isn't interesting. Squall/Alucard probably isn't either. Squall/X and/or Squall/Luigi or X/Luigi could be interesting, but probably not both. Squall/Luigi/X vs. Sonic would be interesting, but the winner of that match vs. Mario wouldn't be, unless it was Sonic, and that's just for the set up. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the Dr_Football, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:27:55 PM | message detail |
I thought people learned in 2002 comparing these to the NCAAs was stupid. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.· SOLDIER! NEVER THINK, YOU ARE NOT SO GOOD AS YOU THINK! |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:28:24 PM | message detail |
Didn't stop CJayC from removing him in 2005 and 2006. 2005 was different because it's hard to make a bracket where three characters dominate everyone without shoving them in the same quarter. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 325/384 - Today's Winner: Link |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:28:42 PM | message detail |
Mario
is overrated by you guys. He wouldn't get close to Cloud and he
wouldn't beat Sephiroth. If that means he's well below Snake and Samus,
then he's well below Snake and Samus. He couldn't even break 54% on
Charizard. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:29:07 PM | message detail |
And
comparing the Character Battle to the NCAA Tournament is a bit silly.
In the NCAA Tournament, the equivalent of Vyse could beat the
equivalent of Luigi. In the Character Battle, it's not happening. --- Dr_Football is the best Guru winner ever created. |
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:29:28 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #468 you think crono has a shot at mario these days... so i would take what you say with a grain of salt, no offense --- http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:30:02 PM | message detail |
From: Cyclo_Reaper | #470 You don't exactly have much wiggle room to talk. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Dr_Football' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/20/2010 10:30:03 PM | message detail |
2005
Clinkeroth was way ahead of the rest of the pack, and Mario/Samus were
way ahead of the rest of the rest of the pack. This year, aside from
Link and Sonic, the rest of the characters are all close enough to have
realistic upset shots. Not only that, but all of these guys are much
much closer to a weakening Link. Now is the absolute worst time to
remove him. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:30:13 PM | message detail |
I've
already said several times that removing Link is the worst thing for
people who follow the contests. All of the sudden Joe Blow who missed
15 matches in the first 3 rounds does better than you because he
properly guessed a tossup final. Such is life; that happens in March Madness every year and it's hard to say you deserve prize-money if you couldn't predict the champion. Besides, if SB used your logic, it would be lame that a contest meant to test predictions was purposefully being kept more predictable to prevent people from being wrong a little less often. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:30:33 PM | message detail |
Giving
Link a bye until the standard bracket completes its championship allows
for up to seven potentially more interesting matches. Wrong removing Link would only open up one or maybe two interesting matches unless the character you replace with is variable. Not a lot in the grand scheme of things. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 325/384 - Today's Winner: Link |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/20/2010 10:31:00 PM | message detail |
He couldn't even break 54% on Charizard. Charizard was probably bandwagoned, so I don't trust that match for that reason. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
PiGuy96 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:31:01 PM | message detail |
Yeah,
if you take out Link, the one seed that replaces him still gets three
byes, and probably has at best two good matches (with his 2 and the
adjacent division winner or the semifinal and final). There just aren't
enough equal characters among the top tiers to get seven interesting
matches. But 2 good matches is probably better than 0 unless you really like watching Link crush things. Which is fine, and may even be what most people want, but I'd take the chance of getting two more good matches. --- Mustache...and Red... |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:31:21 PM | message detail |
Nah,
I gave up on it after Missingno. I'll still take it though, not because
I believe it will happen but out of pure fanboyism. And if it's a
matter of credibility, I think I was far more right about this current
match (and the strength of the Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake/Samus group) than
most people here. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/20/2010 10:31:21 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #468 I'd be inclined to agree, if we didn't see Charizard dominate a Bowser that dominated a Sora, and Mario dominate a Mega Man that dominated his half of the division. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 10:32:22 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #2308 I think he's ahead of Samus and Sephiroth, or at least even. He got 54% on the Charizard that crushed Bowser. The Mario/Bowser relatioship doesn't seem off to me there. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:33:02 PM | message detail |
Cloud
would've been the auto-pick before, but certainly not now. Mario's
hidden under too much SFF, and it would be their first rematch since
their epic 2002 match, not that anyone would remember of course. There
is potential considering Mario's still getting quality games while
Cloud's coasting on his legacy. Plus if Cloud starts on a Crono-level
downward spiral like Sephiroth apparently has, it wouldn't be
unfeasible to see Snake or even Samus upset him next contest. The thing with Link is that he has lost a step since 2006, but he's also most likely going to start his big TP hype train all over again with Zelda Wii. And once you realize what TP hype did for Link, it becomes a bit scary to imagine what he'd do to Cloud next year. Actually, I kind of want to see Link vs Cloud with Zelda Wii hype. --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:33:05 PM | message detail |
I just really hope we have a poll soon asking about retiring Link... http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1596 Even back in 2004, 47% of people wanted Link and Cloud retired. Imagine now with Link winning nearly every contest.. I wouldn't be surprised if its 65% or more. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:33:08 PM | message detail |
Well, which is better, 58% on Bowser or 59% on Squall? Squall beat Yoshi 58-42 last year. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/20/2010 10:33:16 PM | message detail |
Such
is life; that happens in March Madness every year and it's hard to say
you deserve prize-money if you couldn't predict the champion. Besides,
if SB used your logic, it would be lame that a contest meant to test
predictions was purposefully being kept more predictable to prevent
people from being wrong a little less often. I'm pretty sure most would agree that correct analysis and assumptions of past contests should be rewarded more than "blind luck". The NCAA's can only reward blind luck (and basic understanding of college basketball) both because of the much larger bracket following, and the way higher variancy and unpredictability of professional sports. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:33:21 PM | message detail |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #475 Yeah and whatever joker put Charizard in the near-elite list needs to never make a stats topic again. I'm about to remove that part of the first post outright. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.· People with one foot in the coffin shouldn't jump around. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/20/2010 10:33:52 PM | message detail |
And
comparing the Character Battle to the NCAA Tournament is a bit silly.
In the NCAA Tournament, the equivalent of Vyse could beat the
equivalent of Luigi. In the Character Battle, it's not happening. Indeed. Sports is all about skill, not popularity. Even a 1 seed could lose to a 16 seed in the first round, if the 1 seed plays very poorly and doesn't being its A-game to the table. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
paraboxx | Posted 3/20/2010 10:34:00 PM | message detail |
Well,
we're moving away from the "ban Link" talk now, so I'm out for the
night. We'll see how invincible he looks in the morning. ...heh. First time all contest I've seriously contributed to a discussion. Fine time to start! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:35:00 PM | message detail |
The funny thing is that I remember a lot of people saying they didn't want a Mario/Cloud rematch because of their 2002 classic. Now that Mario apparently has a chance again, they're all for it! So...64% on Big Boss vs. 66% on Ryu. --- "I couldn't stand a Dr_Football without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
PiGuy96 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:35:02 PM | message detail |
Well, which is better, 58% on Bowser or 59% on Squall? Squall beat Yoshi 58-42 last year. Which is better, 59% on Squall or 62% on Sora? Squall beat Sora 52-48 last year. --- Mustache...and Red... |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:35:25 PM | message detail |
Even
back in 2004, 47% of people wanted Link and Cloud retired. Imagine now
with Link winning nearly every contest.. I wouldn't be surprised if its
65% or more. Link and Cloud also have 67% and 55% reaching the final in 2004, a lot higher than what it is today. If Link was so predictable wouldn't he be pushing 70%+ in the semi-finals? Especially with a weaker half bracket? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 325/384 - Today's Winner: Link |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/20/2010 10:35:42 PM | message detail |
Man, looking at the geolocation, we can see where the FF7 deep night domination comes from... lol rest of the world --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
creativename | Posted 3/20/2010 10:36:26 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #2357 This is very true. I thought Mario would do well on Link, sox said Link would push 65% - ding ding ding. I thought there wasn't much chance Cloud could look respectable here - Cloud's going to look OK it seems, and might even push 45% or higher. sox right again. I still don't think Mario is below Samus, although it's possible. I think Snake has passed him though, due to MGS4. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:36:27 PM | message detail |
And
it should be mentioned that the 47% people saying that winning
characters should be retired was before 2005... if he does a similiar
poll and we get similiar results, I fully expect Link to be gone. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:37:12 PM | message detail |
Man, using Yoshi and Sora for stat comparisons just throws you into infinite loopholes! Let's not go there! --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the Dr_Football, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:37:17 PM | message detail |
Which is better, 59% on Squall or 62% on Sora? Squall beat Sora 52-48 last year. It was night Sora, so 59% on Squall is better. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:38:07 PM | message detail |
Well,
people expecting Link to crush Cloud just got hung up on his SFF
matches the last two rounds and forgot how disappointing he looked the
first four rounds. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the Dr_Football, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
PiGuy96 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:38:08 PM | message detail |
It was night Sora, so 59% on Squall is better. And that's fine, I would expect Snake to be the favorite. But they're clearly pretty close. --- Mustache...and Red... |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:38:38 PM | message detail |
Oh, and I think Alucard = Falcon predicted Link with 54%~ --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...Dr_Football." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:39:10 PM | message detail |
Samus
and Snake are already pretty damn close to one another through Cloud,
though. Doubt 24 hours would change Samus's percentage significantly,
and if it did, it'd probably be to her favor anyway. --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/20/2010 10:39:27 PM | message detail |
Squall > Link --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this Dr_Football we on!" |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/20/2010 10:39:34 PM | message detail |
Point being, either Samus + Snake > Mario or Mario > Samus + Snake. --- Not Wylvane Dr Football Factor'd. |
