GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 892

UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:08:29 AM | message detail
I still love FF7 to death, but I can't say I'm unhappy about it dropping. I like fun contests, and the same characters always winning with no unpredictability isn't fun. A Cloud/Snake rematch next year could be awesome. Hell if you remove Link, it's a perfectly wide-open field.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/20/2010 10:09:21 AM | message detail
As hilarious as it is to see Link utterly trash everyone, he needs to go. As a result of him being in we get a bunch of lopsided SFF-fests, the contest becomes a lot more predictable(especially now that we have a four-way race for second place) and we get fewer interesting matches because Link is in nearly 1/16th of the entire contest. We only stand to gain by removing him. 2006 may have had its problems but it did have one major strength: The winner was in question. Same for 2005 to a lesser extent. No Link gives more potential for an interesting contest.
irriadin | Posted 3/20/2010 10:09:51 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #200
And I have a feeling we're going to see a disappointing Link tomorrow. How great would it be if Cloud stays over 48%, meaning the top 7 NNers are all likely within 5% of eachother.


That would make Sonic and Mario look hilariously bad.

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Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:09:56 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:10:55 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #201
Hell if you remove Link, it's a perfectly wide-open field.


Thats the best part of it. Actually debating who would win the final match is something that I would love to be able to do. That would add alot more excitement to the contest, since Cloud and Seph have shown they are vulnerable.
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ToadYoshi | Posted 3/20/2010 10:11:36 AM | message detail
The contest wasn't ruined because seven matches were completely and entirely predictable. It was still great. Journey > Destination and whatnot.

However, would anyone argue that any part of the journey involving Link was great? It would have been an even better journey had we replaced his parts with other high-end exciting matches.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/20/2010 10:12:06 AM | message detail
Anyway, I think we should see at least two Noble 9 rematches next year.

Mario vs. Cloud
Samus vs. Snake

These guys should have half the bracket to themselves. The other half should be used to throw Crono and Sonic against some near elites and maybe to have Sephiroth and Mega Man in the same division, which the board would like. I think you can accomplish all that while keeping Link in the bracket, assuming he isn't retired.

Speaking of which, what would you guys prefer tonight: Link getting a big blowout that begs for his retirement, or Cloud getting a surprisingly close performance that warrants keeping Link in next year?
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/20/2010 10:12:08 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #192
He went from embarassing himself against Pikachu


*sigh* People really don't understand Solid ****, do they?
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/20/2010 10:14:07 AM | message detail

From: ToadYoshi | #206
The contest wasn't ruined because seven matches were completely and entirely predictable. It was still great. Journey > Destination and whatnot.

However, would anyone argue that any part of the journey involving Link was great? It would have been an even better journey had we replaced his parts with other high-end exciting matches.


Guys like Alucard, Mega Man X, Mario get totally wasted because the unstoppable Elf God blows them away. Even if Link was just removed to a "Final Boss" round, at least interesting characters like the ones above wouldn't go to waste.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/20/2010 10:14:21 AM | message detail
From an absolute standpoint, taking Link out isn't going to do much. Mario's path to the Final Four was just as boring as Link's to the finals, at least from a standpoint of him actually being in danger of *losing*. What taking Link out does is increase the enjoyability of evaluating the characters - using their performances to gauge one another in anticipation of upcoming matches is the reason why I post in this topic.

Even a major underperformance by Link doesn't mean much in the great scheme of things. It's just... dull. There's nothing to even talk about in a Link match.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/20/2010 10:15:31 AM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #199
Oh yeah Snake is totally being rallied and bandwagoned to heaven here he's not strong at all

but Our The Invincible Queen SMAUS's performance on Cloud - that was totally legit!

Not that Snake surpassing a 53-47 deficit with SSB/MGS4 wouldn't be only plausible, but probable. No sirree.


Because Samus came off of Cloud being in a close match that same day, got a ton of anti-voters and bandwagoners as a result, not to mention an unexpected upset(which lead to bandwagons-see Charizard). And got a big rally and oh wait no that was Snake.

Of course the evidence for a legitimate Snake boost collapses when you look at his performance on Squall. Hell, both Samus and Snake faced someone they also faced in 2006, and guess who improved more? Of course even if this performance is legit, Nintendo fans are going to be skewed towards Snake here, and he won't have that advantage against Samus or Mario.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:15:34 AM | message detail
Nothing can challenge Link? People thought this in 2003 and 2007. People also thought nothing could challenge FF7 for a long time. The site and demographics will change in ways we can only decently predict on a yearly basis; deeming Link forever unbeatable is hyperbole.

Still, I'm off for him having a bye to the championship to face whoever wins the bracket -- it'd be like a ToC with just Link and the bracket-winner. Having Link in the contest is fun, but as long as he's not completely removed then the bracket can be improved upon by using Link less. You could then use the bracket-winner next year to make a "Gauntlet of Champions" and build on it from there; let's say Cloud wins a Link-less bracket in 2011...then if Solid wins a Linkless/Cloudless-bracket in 2012, he faces Cloud and the winner faces Link. If Samus won a Linkless/Cloudless/Snakeless-bracket in 2013, she faces Snake, winner faces Cloud, winner faces Link...you get the idea. Say Cloud lost to Solid in 2012 -- just reverse them in 2013's Gauntlet of Champions and let Samus face Cloud first with the winner facing Solid. This could continue for several years pretty reasonably and keep a pretty consistent string of close matches going on with a pretty even field of top contenders in the bracket. This would also makes it substantially more difficult for joke characters to ruin a contest; as if one-on-ones aren't hard enough, trying to win several in consecutive days against top-tier characters would be something even L-Block may have had problems with.

I'm telling ya, Gauntlet of Champions is a win-win until we get to where there's just too many in it...but considering how having an eight-character ToC was popular for a long time, I think we'll be fine for awhile!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/20/2010 10:16:54 AM | message detail
Cloud would have to get really close to Link in order for me not to favor the Hylian being taken out next year. Like, putting the fear of God in him overnight.

That would probably indicate a Cloud Bandwagon (...now THAT'S an oxymoron) though, so I'd probably still favor retiring him. Paper champions are fine.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/20/2010 10:17:37 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #208
*sigh* People really don't understand Solid ****, do they?


I'm not saying Pikachu didn't overperform a little. But we saw from Yoshi that it doesn't make such a huge difference after all. 2, maybe 3%. And let's face it, Pikachu isn't stronger than Mega Man.
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:18:11 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #214
I'm not saying Pikachu didn't overperform a little. But we saw from Yoshi that it doesn't make such a huge difference after all. 2, maybe 3%. And let's face it, Pikachu isn't stronger than Mega Man.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1769
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Mumei | Posted 3/20/2010 10:18:51 AM | message detail
I'd be fine with Link being taken out of the main bracket if he got a year-end match with the winner. And I suppose he could be reintroduced if he ever seems to be mortal again.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/20/2010 10:19:11 AM | message detail
I'd honestly be happy if we added a secondary poll that just threw Link in as an extra option. If the real contest match is Tifa vs. Yuri, we can just have a for-fun poll below it with Tifa vs. Yuri vs. Link. It wouldn't affect brackets or anything, but it would give us Link's presence in every match.

Actually, we can do away with the other entrants altogether and just have a fun daily "Link" poll where he is the only option and would be guaranteed to get 100% of the votes.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/20/2010 10:19:30 AM | message detail
Man, I'd forgotten the inanity of Lightning Strikes arguments. This would make me consider taking MWC off of ignore if I wasn't already so sure he'd fled the board by this point.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/20/2010 10:20:45 AM | message detail
The fun thing about keeping Link as an "end boss" is that he'd kill his opponent even worse than usual. You think people are going to anti-vote Link in his ONE annual match? He'd double anything.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/20/2010 10:22:55 AM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #218
Man, I'd forgotten the inanity of Lightning Strikes arguments. This would make me consider taking MWC off of ignore if I wasn't already so sure he'd fled the board by this point.


Okay, my arguments are inane you say

Back it up
HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:23:44 AM | message detail
He didn't particularly kill Sephiroth in 2005 or Cloud in 2006 (once Sephiroth was gone...even if Samus and Mario was there for awhile too)!
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/20/2010 10:24:24 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2539
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3848

Man Snake is so much stronger now
The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/20/2010 10:26:50 AM | message detail
Psh, Squall is running off his DISSIDIA BOOST
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/20/2010 10:27:26 AM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #221
He didn't particularly kill Sephiroth in 2005 or Cloud in 2006 (once Sephiroth was gone...even if Samus and Mario was there for awhile too)!


Yeah, but all of those guys were removed. If we just limit Link to one match a year, it'll be like setting loose a chained monster. There'd be no mercy. He'd score 50% in a 12way with all the other Noble 9ers, Missingno, L-Block, and Tifa with a hentai pic.

oh god let's retire him already
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Mumei | Posted 3/20/2010 10:27:39 AM | message detail
The fun thing about keeping Link as an "end boss" is that he'd kill his opponent even worse than usual. You think people are going to anti-vote Link in his ONE annual match? He'd double anything.

Shhhh.

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/20/2010 10:31:22 AM | message detail
Pardon me for lolxstats, but

Auron (2006c) has a strength of 34.68 against Base Link.
Squall (2006c) has a strength of 36.47 against Base Link.
Squall wins with 52.45% of the vote!

And...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3839

Hm.

Honestly that(along with his performance on Terra but it's unknown how much she boosted/rSFF'd him) shows Squall to have actually weakened a little bit.
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/20/2010 10:32:25 AM | message detail
You're comparing a twelve hour format match to a twenty four hour match - and the way Snake handled Sephiroth with the ASV, it's likely he could have increased relative to Squall with it as well as Squall's hasn't been on Seph's level. You're using Samus increasing from a match in which she was antivoted like crazy as evidence of anything. Snake is even preserving the traditional gap that Cloud and Seph have had between one another.

But, nope! This is clearly a bandwagon. Doesn't have any bandwagon trends or crazy leaps of strength, but a bandwagon nonetheless. Snake is so easy to bandwagon in fact, that it's a part of his natural strength when he faces off against any Noble Niner nowadays. So Samus gets crushed anyway.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:32:48 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/20/2010 10:34:36 AM | message detail
Like, x-stats are already supposed to be used as a guideline. You're arguing contests results from FOUR YEARS AGO - with some ridiculously messed up X-Stats - are to be used as a better indicator than what my lying eyes are telling me.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/20/2010 10:35:34 AM | message detail
Whatever the case, I do think Samus/Snake is one of the best powerhouse match-ups for next year. Samus looked very good this year; unlike Snake, she never showed a moment's weakness, and I would have been very interested in seeing what she could have done against Cloud in this position.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:35:56 AM | message detail
...that's a 0.64% difference in their statistical numbers from three and a half years ago. That's pretty accurate for Squall/Auron.
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LOLContests | Posted 3/20/2010 10:36:20 AM | message detail
I'm still not as high on Snake as everyone else seems to be. Why are we assuming that this isn't bandwagoning again? Cloud's doing worse than against Samus, who he would have done better on had that much been 24 hours. Plus Snake has reason to fall faster than the FFVII crew next year anyway, especially if this is related to the dip in KH strength.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/20/2010 10:36:34 AM | message detail
And before I forget:

From: Cyclo_Reaper | #215
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1769


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2551

Hm...

Again, bear in mind, I'm not saying that Snake doesn't weaken in the sprite round, but if we adjust Pikachu based off of Yoshi then assume Snake is stronger than Mario, he's equal to Mega Man!
Kesvalk | Posted 3/20/2010 10:37:28 AM | message detail
could won aganist Samus AND Cpt. Falcon, i want him to be impaled by link...

Die! you emo blondie!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:37:40 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #230
I would have been very interested in seeing what she could have done against Cloud in this position.


On her butt, get pounded? Snake is getting OWNED in this poll by THE buster sword and THE omnislash son
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:37:46 AM | message detail
...you're assuming Solid **** is predictable.
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LOLContests | Posted 3/20/2010 10:37:48 AM | message detail
Cloud: 45 BL
Seph: 40 BL
Snake: 39 BL

I don't see anything with any matches so far that appears inconsistent with this.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/20/2010 10:37:54 AM | message detail
For the record I think Samus/Snake would be a great matchup next year - even one where Samus could be seen as a mild favorite, due to the release of Other M.

But there's that, and people saying patronizingly to me "you can't really think Snake is stronger than Mario/Samus, silly" when he's pulling 48.85% on Cloud Strife.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:38:38 AM | message detail
You're taking Solid **** matches seriously, and in a pokefad contest to boot. Stop talking.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/20/2010 10:38:58 AM | message detail
With Other M and a very strong Nintendo year on the horizon, I'd probably take Samus over Snake next year. I may even gamble and take her over the plumber if the scenario seems favorable enough.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:39:43 AM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #237
Cloud: 45 BL
Seph: 40 BL
Snake: 39 BL

I don't see anything with any matches so far that appears inconsistent with this.


Damn Snake only getting 43.3333333333333333333333333...% in the current poll today.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:40:20 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #240
I may even gamble and take her over the plumber if the scenario seems favorable enough.


Have I taught you people nothing?
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LOLContests | Posted 3/20/2010 10:41:06 AM | message detail
Damn Snake only getting 43.3333333333333333333333333...% in the current poll today.

Well if he's being bandwagoned/anti-voted, then he would do better which is my point. This performance isn't inconsistent with believing Snake is at 39 on BL.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/20/2010 10:41:16 AM | message detail
Have you forgotten that I finished ahead of you in 2005?
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Gooper Blooper | Posted 3/20/2010 10:42:53 AM | message detail
I'm glad my idea has some support. :D

For the people who don't like it, think of it this way: We only have to see Link dominate in one match rather than take up seven. His removal from the main bracket would open the field a bit and save the boredom for the post-contest.

I'm thinking a Linkless bracket, same format as now, maybe like this:

Div 1: Mario leads here to continue day one Ninty stompage. Stick Sonic and a Square near-elite on the other side.
Div 2: Cloud. Stick a small herd of midcarders in the lower half.
Div 3: Pikachu, Crono, and Vincent.
Div 4: More near-elites to ensure a non-Niner makes the semis. Set up Bowser versus Ganondorf. Include a Fourpack of Fail consisting of DK, Magus, Liquid and the Chief.
Div 5: Samus and perhaps Mega Man.
Div 6: Sephy goes here. Rematch with Mizno optional.
Div 7: Put Tifa here, with some non-Square big guns like Charizard and Zero.
Div 8: SNAAAAKE
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:43:25 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #244
Have you forgotten that I finished ahead of you in 2005?


You did it twice! =p

(Villain's was 2005, right?)
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Lucid Faia | Posted 3/20/2010 10:43:29 AM | message detail
I prefer to think of it less as bandwagoning and more as the GameFAQs population growing up a little.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/20/2010 10:43:57 AM | message detail
*wakes up, nervously looks at poll results*

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HaRRicH | Posted 3/20/2010 10:44:51 AM | message detail
I'm not taking Samus > Mario if Other M is big like LoZ:TP. I'll need to see GameFAQs disrespect Mario more before I hop on that train again...!

Samus/Snake would be a great match though. Give me Snake, but Other M might be a difference maker. Mario/Cloud would be fun too, but pit Mario against Sephiroth first. I'm not convinced Samus beats Seph and she's looked better than Mario in most rounds.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/20/2010 10:48:18 AM | message detail
Samus/Snake would be a great match, yes. Is there any way to extrapolate Samus/Cloud trends out to 24 hours? From the look of it, Snake's going to finish higher than Samus. That match would pretty much come down to if my Snake Nintendo theory is true.
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