GameFAQs Contests

It means the bandwagon will matter less percentagewise. But the same percentage gap here will produce a much higher absolute vote gap, since Cloud and Snake won't have to share the poll with Link and Crono.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Cloud was able to cut 1600 votes out of 3700 because Snake had the match well in hand and didn't need rallying. You really think it'll be that easy if the match is close?
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

If Snake ever reaches 2000, kiss it goodbye. It's probably game with 1000. That's a nice lead, and I doubt his supporters stand idly by as he loses it unless Cloud's comeback is absolutely furious.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

It means the bandwagon will matter less percentagewise. But the same percentage gap here will produce a much higher absolute vote gap, since Cloud and Snake won't have to share the poll with Link and Crono.

Not really. For example if 5000 people were a part of the bandwagon they would vote Snake no matter what, when you remove Link and Crono their votes split between Cloud and Snake in what a normal Cloud/Snake match would have been (say 57/43 like it was in 2008)
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

Not to mention that their trends don't differ that much.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

It's hard to rally more than a few hundred votes. Nothing outside of jokes and Starcraft has ever demonstrated the ability to rally thousands of votes.

Although, I don't expect to see as big a bandwagon as last year (in which case Cloud might be done anyway), so 2000 is a much better break even point here for 4 AM. But cutting 3000 only requires Cloud to average 51.5% or so over the last 20 hours- it's hard to win with only the first 4 hours; Crono has taught me that well enough. All it needs is for Snake to be heavily frontloaded.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

2000 lead is probably enough for Snake to win this one, better don't underestimate what Snake fans can do when Cloud is coming close to taking the lead. There is a reason why Cloud never managed to cut down much of Snake's lead during ASV last year in Round 5.
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Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times"

It's hard to rally more than a few hundred votes. Nothing outside of jokes and Starcraft has ever demonstrated the ability to rally thousands of votes.

So what happened when Cloud couldn't even overcome a deficit of 300 one day and cuts 1600 the next day?

Something happened.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

I don't want to brag about rallying but...

I easily got a couple hundred votes for hogger, and that was in a match that really didn't matter

A couple hundred for snake in the semifinal is no where near what he can rally
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http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

But cutting 3000 only requires Cloud to average 51.5% or so over the last 20 hours- it's hard to win with only the first 4 hours; Crono has taught me that well enough. All it needs is for Snake to be heavily frontloaded.


Using today's match Snake would also have 56% after four hours, that's a mighty percent swing.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

Not really. For example if 5000 people were a part of the bandwagon they would vote Snake no matter what, when you remove Link and Crono their votes split between Cloud and Snake in what a normal Cloud/Snake match would have been (say 57/43 like it was in 2008)

That's an argument for the 1v1 match helping Cloud. It does nothing to make a bandwagoned lead harder to make up, because the bandwagoned votes are still distributed the same as before and the extra normal votes are distributed as they would be in a normal match (i.e. they have no effect on trends).
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

And Cloud suddenly going 51.5% for the rest of the match when he's getting 55/45 for the first at least 1/8 of the match is easier said than done. We don't see a lot of 3000 vote swings for a reason.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

So what happened when Cloud couldn't even overcome a deficit of 300 one day and cuts 1600 the next day?

Something happened.

Yeah, Snake was bandwagoned the second day, that's the difference.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

I might be wrong but... have we ever even had a 3k vote swing that ended up in a win? I can't think of any off the top of my head more then like 2600..
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http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

That's an argument for the 1v1 match helping Cloud. It does nothing to make a bandwagoned lead harder to make up, because the bandwagoned votes are still distributed the same as before and the extra normal votes are distributed as they would be in a normal match (i.e. they have no effect on trends).


It is also easier to comeback being down 48% than it is being down 45%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

For some reason, I see a lot of doubt about Snake not having a chance at winning the contest. However, if he does well against Cloud and wins, Snake does have a shot at this.
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BFC: 2492-6375-2047 (Sonic)

Snake has absolutely no chance of winning the contest.

No one but Link has any shot of winning the final, stop being silly.
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"Why did you come with me?" "Only because I wanted to go with you."

It's easier than it sounds. Yes, Cloud might only be at 44-45% at 4 AM- but his percentage in the 3-4 hour would already be around 49% in such a scenario. Bandwagoned characters have the worst day votes imaginable; last year's finals was the first time Crono had won the ASV over anyone in years, maybe the only time he's ever won it.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

I might be wrong but... have we ever even had a 3k vote swing that ended up in a win? I can't think of any off the top of my head more then like 2600..

I don't really count vote swings because it is easier to win large when down by 49% than to win at all when down by 46%, but the biggest successful comeback was 2250 done by Sonic/Crono.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

From: red sox 777 | #368
maybe the only time he's ever won it.

I'm pretty sure he won it over Kefka.
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http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

Does anyone have the Cloud/Snake hourlies from the final last year? If not, I'll go calculate them right now so we have a good analog to work with in an hour.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Albi? You'd BETTER be suspended on all your other alts right now!

And weren't you supposed to give that account to ExTha anyways?

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You should search B8 for The Show, hosted by Ng & Ed!
thengamer.com/guru | thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com

Snake has absolutely no chance of winning the contest.

No one but Link has any shot of winning the final, stop being silly.

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Believe what you want. Even if Snake doesn't win the contest, at least it will show he always gives out a great performance. However, I wouldn't mind seeing Snake win. But that's just me.
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BFC: 2492-6375-2047 (Sonic)

It's easier than it sounds. Yes, Cloud might only be at 44-45% at 4 AM- but his percentage in the 3-4 hour would already be around 49% in such a scenario.

Get 49% in the last hour before 4? You do know that you are saying that Snake has a great chance at breaking 60% during the first hour then right?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

I don't know how much an hourly from a weekday match will help you for a weekend match
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

From: Ngamer64 | #372
Albi? You'd BETTER be suspended on all your other alts right now!

And weren't you supposed to give that account to ExTha anyways?

I convinced Extha he didn't want to be connected to my usermap.
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http://i43.tinypic.com/24y7282.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

We'll be approaching Ludicrous Speed in about 45 minutes, so Karma or another big Snake fan, you might want to make the next topic now.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I'm pretty excited for the Cloud/Snake match. Hope the first few hours are entertaining.
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"We think our fathers fools, so wise we grow; Our wiser sons, no doubt will think us so.'' - Alexander Pope

Get 49% in the last hour before 4? You do know that you are saying that Snake has a great chance at breaking 60% during the first hour then right?

Of course. Well, not 60%, but something like 57-58%, anyway. In fact, last year, Snake got 61% the first hour and less than 53% the 4th hour of the poll.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

I don't know how much an hourly from a weekday match will help you for a weekend match

The important thing is the dropoff from the start to the rest of the poll, and the trend of Snake falling throughout the whole day (which was a lot bigger than normal trends).
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Cloud/Snake 1:

Time | Cloud | Snake | Sephiroth | Kirby | Demographic | Votes
EBV | 25.79% | 33.05% | 10.74% | 30.41% | (0:00-0:05) | 1667
PHV | 27.01% | 31.94% | 13.76% | 27.29% | (0:00-1:00) | 12385
FNV | 31.28% | 30.61% | 15.69% | 22.42% | (1:00-6:00) | 22566
BSV | 30.07% | 30.19% | 16.27% | 23.46% | (6:00-9:00) | 14833
DSV | 30.86% | 31.50% | 16.67% | 20.98% | (9:00-14:30) | 31560
ASV | 30.64% | 29.98% | 16.50% | 22.88% | (14:30-22:00) | 47749
SNV | 32.21% | 31.70% | 15.99% | 20.10% | (22:00-24:00) | 8367

Cloud/Snake 2:

Time | Link | Crono | Snake | Cloud | Demographic | Votes
EBV | 32.77% | 13.95% | 33.87% | 19.40% | (0:00-0:05) | 1727
PHV | 32.81% | 13.29% | 33.04% | 20.86% | (0:00-1:00) | 12845
FNV | 30.72% | 12.53% | 31.15% | 25.61% | (1:00-6:00) | 24956
BSV | 34.51% | 11.22% | 28.20% | 26.07% | (6:00-9:00) | 15860
DSV | 33.24% | 12.50% | 27.62% | 26.63% | (9:00-14:30) | 32940
ASV | 35.53% | 11.74% | 25.21% | 27.52% | (14:30-22:00) | 51017
SNV | 32.81% | 13.47% | 24.88% | 28.84% | (22:00-24:00) | 8887

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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Yeah, Snake dropped over 12% from the freeze to the end and nearly 10% from the power hour to the end. If there is a bandwagon here, if Snake is up 62-38 at the freeze it's still not a sure thing X_X
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Good lord Snake was buffed last year.

Question: Considering the buff Snake got between the semis and finals in 2008, if he beats Cloud by a larger percentage than be beat Seph (say, 54-46), do you start to give him a shot against Link?
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

You should post their first match too, it's the only weekend match
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Assuming I understand what you mean (Looking just at Cloud and Snake and essentially ignoring Link/Crono), I can do that if you want.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k10 (267/318) Link v Mario

If the first scenario happens, Cloud has a chance. If the second scenario happens, Cloud has no chance.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Of course. Well, not 60%, but something like 57-58%, anyway. In fact, last year, Snake got 61% the first hour and less than 53% the 4th hour of the poll.

57-58% would mean that Snake would have to stay constant for those three hours before dropping off and while Samus was able to do that Snake from 2008 couldn't so expect above 60% if you want to keep your fantasy alive. Also Europe isn't in the same time frame compare to NA as it was in 2008 due to DST.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

Not sure how anyone can look at that and claim Snake doesn't "need" a bandwagon to do anything. It's so apparent.
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:>

It's impossible for me to give anyone a shot at Link at this point. Snake would need at least 56% before I would consider it.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4

Are Snake/Cloud match pics up yet?

Not sure how anyone can look at that and claim Snake doesn't "need" a bandwagon to do anything. It's so apparent.

Snake 53/47 Samus without a bandwagon isn't that hard to believe. Not that I would go for it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

My thoughts on what Snake needs are the same as my thoughts on Samus - 60% at the freeze and 55% (~1000 votes) at the end of the Power Hour. He might even need to be higher since he's got to last for 24 hours, but I'd be satisfied with that.
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Mustache...and Green...

http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/cb8/cb8-126-1.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/cb8/cb8-126-2.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/cb8/cb8-126-3.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/cb8/cb8-126-4.jpg
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

57-58% would mean that Snake would have to stay constant for those three hours before dropping off and while Samus was able to do that Snake from 2008 couldn't so expect above 60% if you want to keep your fantasy alive. Also Europe isn't in the same time frame compare to NA as it was in 2008 due to DST.

Hmm? First hour 58%, second hour 55%, third hour 53%, fourth hour 51% => Weighted Average at 4 AM > 55%.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

...Bummer.

...Match pics favor Cloud this time. Slightly, but still.

Match CXXVI: (1) Cloud Strife vs. (1) Solid Snake

Last Round

Samus Aran – 47.19%
Cloud Strife – 52.81%

Solid Snake – 52.96%
Sephiroth – 47.04%

Analysis

I guess anyone who was whining about the final matches being boring must be pretty glad that they were wrong. This is the second to last match of the contest and I don’t think anyone should be confident about the winner. Cloud was caught in the middle of impressing enough to not be in immediate danger, but not impressing enough to be safe. Sephiroth was also able to recover enough percent to make Snake go from favourite to debatable.

Other than the previous contest this is probably Snake’s best chance at defeating Cloud. While a bandwagon could be debatable Snake only needs a slight one in order to win, remember most people only expect Cloud to win over Sephiroth with 52-55%. While some people feel that Snake may be at a disadvantage since Final Fantasy VII doesn’t look as dominant and that was the fuel for the hate I feel that those people will try to take it one step more and attempt to push Snake over the main character.

In Cloud’s favour the match lasts for 24 hours which means he has longer to dilute his terrible board vote and that more effort would be needed if a rally were to take place. Cloud also has the night vote in this match, something that Sephiroth didn’t have. While it has been suggested that Cloud’s strength is roughly the same at night and day because of the board vote it also assumes that the day match does not receive a board vote. The board vote may be diluted in day matches, but I’m sure that a majority of the anti-Final Fantasy VII people that vote early in night matches vote at some point during the day match.

Snake has every reason to win, but Cloud does have a few tricks up his sleeve. As expected Snake should start off with the lead and only during the night vote will we see whether or not Cloud has a chance. Remember Europe hasn’t gone through day light savings which means Cloud won’t make any massive move for at least three hours into the match. Either way I’m hoping for a close nail biter.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Sephiroth

charmander6000’s Prediction: Cloud wins, 50.42% - 49.58%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link

...For the record, if I had talent with photoshop or something, I'd totally have done a match pic with the Midgar Zolom behind Snake.
...and some MGS character that references clouds behind Cloud.

Maybe Colonel Volgin summoning a thundercloud or something.

Snake by the Hour:

1:00 | 61.30%
2:00 | 58.66%
3:00 | 57.29%
4:00 | 52.77%
5:00 | 51.40%
6:00 | 48.93%
7:00 | 51.19%
8:00 | 52.78%
9:00 | 51.80%
10:00 | 51.91%
11:00 | 51.32%
12:00 | 52.05%
13:00 | 50.61%
14:00 | 49.07%
15:00 | 50.05%
16:00 | 49.20%
17:00 | 48.87%
18:00 | 47.46%
19:00 | 49.13%
20:00 | 48.10%
21:00 | 45.91%
22:00 | 43.64%
23:00 | 44.70%
24:00 | 48.28%

What a match.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

So Cloud didn't really dominate until the last four hours, huh?

Snake'll be fine if that's how it goes down.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Oh, and Snake's final percentage = 51.32%
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!