GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 889
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 3/19/2010 2:31:47 PM | message detail |
I'm
still skeptical about seeing a bandwagon in 1v1s. We went through the
first 8 contests without seeing any for a reason. There's nowhere to
gain votes among standard voters in a heads-up match. You either like
one more or you like the other. 4-ways introduced the concept of your
vote being "wasted" if you voted for your favorite that wasn't in the
competition. Even if Cloud was your favorite character, seeing Link and
Snake in a close match made people decide between those two instead. In
the end, the losing characters ended up getting destroyed in order to
see Link go down. This seems to be supported by the very standard trends we've seen passed the board votes. There haven't been any plummets like we saw in 4-ways (besides the normal ones we see in every FFVII match). --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:34:33 PM | message detail |
We went through the first 8 contests without seeing any for a reason. I don't think that's true. We never got any on the level that enabled people to beat Sephiroth, but that doesn't mean we never had any. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/19/2010 2:36:58 PM | message detail |
I wouldn't be surprised if some of the 2002 elites had bandwagons considering some of the crazy-ass **** we saw there. --- Not Wylvane |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/19/2010 2:37:32 PM | message detail |
From: Lieutenant Kettch | Posted: 3/19/2010 5:31:47 PM | #301 Crono in 2k2? Starcraft? Chrono Trigger in the Games finals? Frog in 2k4? Plenty of evidence there. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:38:23 PM | message detail |
Honestly,
I wouldn't be surprised if Cloud > Link 2003 wasn't somewhat of a
bandwagon. I think everyone went "Oh crap" when he doubled Sonic that
year. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/19/2010 2:38:50 PM | message detail |
I
think it's pretty obvious that in 2003 Magus had a bandwagon. Same with
Frog in 2004, even considering Solid ****. I'm thinking Samus might
have had one against Seph in 2002. I'm sure there's other examples. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Hochimihnister | Posted 3/19/2010 2:40:21 PM | message detail |
Link not impressing that much with the ASV but it matters not. He'll approach 60% on either Cloud or Snake. Probably Snake |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:41:14 PM | message detail |
Even Hochi has abandoned hope for Cloud? All is lost. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/19/2010 2:41:24 PM | message detail |
Speaking of Snake, KH, are you reprising as a guest for the Analysis Crew for The Big Match? I'd love to see your take on it. :) --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:42:36 PM | message detail |
Cloud/Snake is mine! Nah, I'm just kidding. KH can have it if he wants to! That'll free up some more FFXIII time anyway! --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 3/19/2010 2:44:33 PM | message detail |
You
can consider those bandwagons if you want, but our two clearest
examples ever have been L-Block's run and Snake in the finals.
L-Block's trends don't need to be mentioned, and Snake had a straight
downward line the entire match. We didn't see this in any of these 1v1
examples. Why would 4-way bandwagons be concentrated early in the match, while 1v1 bandwagons are evenly spread throughout? In my opinion, it's because these 1v1 matches weren't bandwagons. --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:44:36 PM | message detail |
Hey look, someone else joining in on the fictional characters idea! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53986035 A lot of the board seems resistant to it though, for whatever the reason. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/19/2010 2:45:27 PM | message detail |
I
will do every Snake match from now on if allowed to but I will still
defer to Leon since he called it. If he's truly set on that FF13ing
though then sure why not --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:45:48 PM | message detail |
Oh,
there's never been a bandwagon the magnitude of L-Block's, and there
probably never will be again. That's not really a fair example. I think
it's pretty obvious Charizard had something going on against Mario. I
don't think he's worth 46%+ at raw strength there. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/19/2010 2:47:35 PM | message detail |
Awesome.
Your Seph/Snake writeup was a thing of beauty (I'd even say it should
be placed in the page as an introduction to the PCA, Starcraft/Halo
style), so hearing that you'll do another one makes me happy. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:50:37 PM | message detail |
So if Snake beats Cloud...How low does the prediction percentage go for that one? --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 3/19/2010 2:50:42 PM | message detail |
The magnitude doesn't matter. It's that these matches don't show L-Block or Snake's trends at all.
4-way bandwagons made sense. People who followed the contest went along
with it and voted early. People who voted purely for their favorite
were the more casual visitors who became more prominent as the match
went on. These 1v1 matches make no sense as a bandwagon as it implies
the standard gamefaqs visitor is following a character's run as much as
the contest crazies do. --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:51:27 PM | message detail |
It's
difficult to show trends like that 1-on-1. L-Block's trends became
extreme because there were three other characters in the poll. They
won't be that extreme with just one character. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/19/2010 2:52:36 PM | message detail |
From: Lieutenant Kettch | Posted: 3/19/2010 5:50:42 PM | #317 Uhm...you've seen CT/FF7, right? That was DEFINITELY a bandwagon, though CT's then ultra-godly Power Hour masked it a bit. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/19/2010 2:54:37 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:55:20 PM | message detail |
And
yeah, there's virtually no doubt StarCraft had a bandwagon of some sort
going. There's no way Halo gives Wind Waker or Melee a good match any
year. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/19/2010 2:56:12 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/19/2010 2:57:03 PM | message detail |
I
checked at noon to make sure it was working but I guess I should have
kept a closer watch on it. I'm collecting updates now but I think the
hour of missing updates has been lost. I wasn't on at the time to make sure the updater didn't break after 12 hours. So I wasn't able to collect any updates that TRE might have missed. I didn't expect it to break after the 12:13 update. I would have expected it to break after the 12:03 update instead, if I was on at the time. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 3/19/2010 3:07:52 PM | message detail |
From: KanzarisKelshen | #319 Did CT have a bandwagon against LTTP as well then? Because those two trends are exactly the same. Big CT start, gradual percentage loss until ~7 hours into the match and then perfectly even from there to the end. And Starcraft was all rallying. Again, the WW and SSBM matches went exactly as the Halo match went. Why would a bandwagon excite all voters equally when our clearest examples didn't? --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 3:29:10 PM | message detail |
Again, the WW and SSBM matches went exactly as the Halo match went. There's a reason for that. Are you trying to say there was no Missingno bandwagon either? And speaking from personal experience, you better believe I jumped on the StarCraft bandwagon against Wind Waker. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/19/2010 3:37:33 PM | message detail |
There
doesn't really look like there was much of a Missingno bandwagon.
Leading Sephiroth for 3 hours looks a lot less impressive when Snake
did it for 12. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/19/2010 3:38:09 PM | message detail |
I mean, there obviously was, but it was nothing earth-shattering and I doubt it was worth more than 1%. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
Haguile | Posted 3/19/2010 3:40:05 PM | message detail |
My take on the bandwagon is that it's not as solid as it was with L-Block. I apologize for that pun. It does exist, for sure. It existed in past contests but was never too important because of unfavourable matchups that didn't allow the bandwagons to grow enough to cause any real damage. Now about this contest...Well, I suppose that Snake has enoug momentum to beat Cloud. Whether Snake>Link is even debatable will be known to us in a few hours, during the Snake vs Cloud board vote. If the bandwagon got big enough to make Snake beat Cloud the same way he beat Sephiroth, then I say the man has got a chance. Not a good chance, but a chance nonetheless. Say Cloud wins. No. Just no. The antivote is going to counter any bandwagon he might get. Snake is our last chance. 80% of chance Link wins easily 20% Link also wins easily My guess: Snake wins with 200% of chance. Because I believe in him, despite everything being against him! --- B8 Liar Game |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/19/2010 3:40:10 PM | message detail |
For all we know, Missingno remained constant and Yoshi/Crono/Sephiroth are about as close as the stats show. Maybe Snake is still weak and Sephiroth just dropped to within a few % of Crono. We can only hope. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 3:40:50 PM | message detail |
This topic was making more sense when Dark Link was dominating the conversation. --- :> |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 3:43:15 PM | message detail |
2002
was full of bandwagoning and people being very aware of the contest,
probably to the greatest extent of any Gamefaqs contest minus maybe
2007. Just look at how votals doubled from the first round to the end. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 3:49:05 PM | message detail |
CT/FFVII's
trends were quite different from CT/LTTP. The falloff from the first
hour to the rest of the match was much bigger with CT/FFVII, larger
than in Crono/Vincent 2007 even, a match that happened when CT had a
much worse day vote. I wouldn't call it a bandwagon though. That was the obvious favorite getting anti-voted, just like in the Villains Contest finals and semifinals, and in the Female Bracket. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
creativename | Posted 3/19/2010 3:54:17 PM | message detail |
From: KanzarisKelshen | #1504 Crono 2k2 bandwagon, I don't even know where you'd get that from, everything was standard there. Frog benefitted from Solid **** and rallying in close matches; nothing odd about Frog=MC=LS back then. Starcraft is a maybe, but that was more stuffing and slight rallying, and only a very mild increase in strength from round to round. That division was much more closely packed than the older ones. Magus was probably more Chrono Trigger sprite vs. Bible Link than anything. He did beat Ganon, which isn't bad. Also his strength has fallen off a cliff since then. From: LeonhartFour | #1505 Now this is just wrong, since Cloud/Sonic perfectly predicted Cloud/Link. Cloud was plain stronger that year. Besides, this site was never at a point where they'd bandwagon for Cloud! I disagree that you can't have bandwagons in 1v1. However it does seem that what we presumed to be the biggest bandwagon in Missingno, was not nearly as much of a bandwagon as we thought since Sephiroth is so much weaker. I still think Snake gets boosted, but, it might not be much. Probably doesn't need to be much though to overcome Cloud as they'd appear to be close in strength anyway. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename | Posted 3/19/2010 3:56:25 PM | message detail |
Also
Chrono Trigger certainly wasn't a bandwagon in games, in what a big
favorite to get to the finals. That's another example where I have no
clue where anyone would get the bandwagon notion from. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 5:03:16 PM | message detail |
I
wouldn't call it bandwagoning, but CT definitely overperformed in the
finals. Going from 50% in the first hour to 42% at the end of the day
in a 1v1 match is just too extreme. --- Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Jman_maximum | Posted 3/19/2010 5:21:27 PM | message detail |
that was just anti FFVII votes + CT being a beast in the night this year for example.,had we gotten Crono vs seph, Crono would most likely have the lead in the start |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 5:27:18 PM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #335 Chrono Trigger killed the beginning of nearly every match it was in. It went from a near tripling at the beginning of the Mario RPG match to near a doubling. Pretty sure it was close to doubling Mario World during the board vote, too. *checks* Yep, 67.25% ten minutes in. Of course, it dropped pretty quickly from there. Heck, it was 55/45ing LTTP in the opening part of the match. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Gooper Blooper | Posted 3/19/2010 5:51:49 PM | message detail |
Hm, the topic's dead. GEE I WONDER WHY 12 hour matches >>>>> 24 hour matches We can't go back now that we've had a taste of awesome. --- And then the car wash cost five dollars. Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/19/2010 5:57:40 PM | message detail |
There
doesn't really look like there was much of a Missingno bandwagon.
Leading Sephiroth for 3 hours looks a lot less impressive when Snake
did it for 12. Missingno lead Sephiroth for 4 hours, 5 minutes. The same length of time that L-Block led Snake in their first match back in 2007. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/19/2010 6:03:56 PM | message detail |
I
wouldn't call it bandwagoning, but CT definitely overperformed in the
finals. Going from 50% in the first hour to 42% at the end of the day
in a 1v1 match is just too extreme. Except those trends fit each and every CT and Final Fantasy 7 match to a T. Goddamn, now we have a new "hip" made up contest word. Guess we'll be hearing about how "Link was bandwagoned to overperform on Mario!" until the next contest starts... --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1 |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/19/2010 6:05:46 PM | message detail |
From: creativename | #334 50-50 with FF7 for an hour and dropped to 42%. That's a bandwagon joke trend. --- ~*ST*~ ~*ST*~ |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/19/2010 6:06:16 PM | message detail |
From: vcharon | #330 Okay I've come around on you completely, Dark Link for ****in prez. --- MUSIC CAN BE OBJECTIVELY DEFINED AND ITS QUALITY EMPIRICALLY MEASURED BY THE INEQUALITY [WHAT I LIKE > WHAT YOU LIKE]. -Jaraqua Lefty Jones |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 6:16:18 PM | message detail |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #340 Of COURSE Link was bandwagoned in this match. --- Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/19/2010 6:19:34 PM | message detail |
I
was arguing for bandwagons before it was cool! That was one of the
reasons I took Castlevania over Halo way back in 2006 - StarCraft's
bandwagon! --- Of course I also took Castlevania over Kingdom Hearts but we'll ignore that. |
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/19/2010 7:22:25 PM | message detail |
Is the next match beginning in just a little over one and a half hours? And it's funny to think that FF7 is now anti-voted more than Pokemon is. |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 7:24:25 PM | message detail |
No,
CT/FFVII did not have trends congruent with normal CT/FFVII trends- not
2004 CT/FFVII trends, anyway. And it would be pretty extreme, even for
CT/FFVII now. It was more extreme than Crono/Vincent 2007, and that
pretty much takes the cake for extreme trend shifts. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 7:31:13 PM | message detail |
For
tonight, I'll take Cloud to be the favorite if he can hold Snake to a
peak lead of 2000. 3000 is doable but unlikely unless it's the result
of very heavy bandwagoning. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 7:41:27 PM | message detail |
3000? Have we forgotten the difficulty of comebacks or something? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 7:43:11 PM | message detail |
Cloud
cut 1600 votes from 3700 down in last year's final, while Cloud and
Snake were working with just over half the votes. 3000 is quite
possible if the lead was built up through heavy heavy bandwagoning.
Cloud just needs to average 51-52% over the last 20 hours of the poll
to do it. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 7:49:49 PM | message detail |
First
of all this is 1v1 which means a bandwagon would be a weaker force
which means Snake would build a smaller lead from it and second do you
really think Snake fans would let Cloud roll over Snake like that? If Cloud is more than 500 votes away from the lead by morning Snake probably has it. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link |
