GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 889

EternalxCourage | Posted 3/19/2010 12:28:44 PM | message detail
The funny thing is that if Snake doesn't get bandwagoned past Cloud, the bandwagon is likely going to turn into an anti-ff7 ****storm in stead of adding to Cloud's power and Link will obliterate him.

What should happen is Cloud will beat Snake, and then the bandwagoners on Snake's side switch to Cloud and Cloud beats Link again. You would think, with all the people hoping for a 'non boring' contest, would be content with Snake giving Cloud a good match and then rallying Cloud past Link.

One would hope.

One would be wrong.
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Swarles_Barkley | Posted 3/19/2010 12:29:24 PM | message detail
Snake has a better chance of winning the contest than Cloud does, but he also has a better chance of failing to break 40% on Link. I wouldn't be surprised if he did tbh
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TheSnowVilliers | Posted 3/19/2010 12:30:48 PM | message detail
Uh...Snake doesn't have a better chance of beating Link than Cloud does. Period. Snake has a 0% chance. At least with a bandwagon/rally Cloud could do it. Snake can't.
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The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt
Just make sure you know if you're hangin' on the cross, or bangin' in the nails.
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 12:31:07 PM | message detail
I can't see anyone but Link winning the contest, and I think Cloud has a better chance of doing better against Link based on his fanbase being a lot further away from Link than Snake's is.
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:>
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 3/19/2010 12:31:45 PM | message detail
Cloud's gonna get a bandwagon? There's a better chance of Snake getting 60%+ in the finals than there is of Cloud getting a bandwagon.
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Hello, Dexter Morgan
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 12:31:55 PM | message detail
And yeah, if Cloud could get the rallies and bandwagon effect he'd actually have a chance. But he's never going to get that sort of support again.
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:>
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:32:57 PM | message detail
Well before most people said Cloud/Sephiroth would be somewhere between 52-55% so Cloud does have a window of opportunity. Plus having the night might help too.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:33:02 PM | message detail
Cloud getting a bandwagon isn't completely impossible, Link's had FFVII trends this contest. Just look at today- he's going to end up like 7 points above where he was at the freeze.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:34:29 PM | message detail
Mario is trying his hardest to try and stay above 36%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/19/2010 12:34:33 PM | message detail
Man Snake broke 45% on Link last year with that bandwagon. Fourways and all that (plus that was one HELL of a bandwagon, I'd be stunned if it came through like *that* again), but why are we so down on him breaking 40%? =/
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 12:35:52 PM | message detail
If Snake can beat Cloud, there's really no reason to think he won't break 40% on Link unless we think:

A. Link breaks 60% on Cloud
B. Snake's bandwagon/rallying/whatever magically disappears the moment he faces Link
C. Link SFFs Snake
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheSnowVilliers | Posted 3/19/2010 12:35:54 PM | message detail
My point is this -- Snake beat Sephiroth with a bandwagon -- and it was generally assumed beforehand that Snake was at least 5% or more weaker than Seph (in 06 at least, and I mean Snake has been the beneficiary of bandwagoning/rallying for the last couple of contests). Now take that away and apply it to Cloud. If Snake can muster up about 5% in rallying/bandwagoning...Maybe anti-champion + bandwagoning would potentially propel Cloud above Link?
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The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt
Just make sure you know whether you're hangin' on the cross, or bangin' in the nails.
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 3/19/2010 12:35:59 PM | message detail
I'd sooner say Link would get a bandwagon than Cloud, honestly. FFVII always wins, right?
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Hello, Dexter Morgan
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 3/19/2010 12:36:51 PM | message detail
C. Link SFFs Snake

^ that
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Hello, Dexter Morgan
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:37:13 PM | message detail
Snake doesn't need a bandwagon to defeat Cloud though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 3/19/2010 12:37:46 PM | message detail
Snake doesn't need a bandwagon to defeat Cloud though.

Yeah, he does.

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Hello, Dexter Morgan
TheSnowVilliers | Posted 3/19/2010 12:38:18 PM | message detail
Because it's a combination of a couple of things.

1) anti-FF voting helped Snake a lot, as well as bandwagoning in 4 ways being much much more effective.

2) 4 ways are completely unreliable in that sense.

3) Link is going to SFF Snake to a degree because a lot of his popularity boost came from SSBB.

If Snake gets to the finals I think we're going to see the biggest blowout of any final. If Cloud makes it there we could see the same because of anti-Cloud bandwagoners that are disappointed he beat Snake. But there's that 1% possibility that maybe, just maybe, people could be smart enough to bandwagon Cloud for a completely unexpected result.
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The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt
Just make sure you know whether you're hangin' on the cross, or bangin' in the nails.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 12:38:53 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #265
Snake doesn't need a bandwagon to defeat Cloud though.


Why not? Do we think Cloud gets less than 53% on Sephy indirectly? Or do we think Snake is 3%~ stronger than Samus?

Or do we think Snake beating Sephiroth wasn't some sort of bandwagon? I mean, it's possible Snake could have beaten him without one, but 53%? I dunno.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 12:39:02 PM | message detail
As far as tonight goes, Snake is absolutely the favorite. Sephiroth never won a single hour, and I think Snake even won the SNV comfortably. Remember how much power L-Block and Snake both gained in the contest's final 48 hours, and realize that Snake doesn't need that big a power gain to win (he may not need one at all). I'm going with Cloud in the Oracle only because I hate hedging my bets so close to the end; it's not fun. All or nothing, so LET'S MOSEY.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:39:03 PM | message detail
Snake doesn't need a bandwagon to defeat Cloud though.

Yeah, he does.


No he doesn't, Cloud wouldn't defeat Sephiroth by much more than what Snake did.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 12:39:15 PM | message detail
People are just in denial.
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:>
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 12:40:20 PM | message detail
and I think Snake even won the SNV comfortably.

Not comfortably. Though he never lost an hour, Sephiroth got over 49% the last three hours.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:40:25 PM | message detail
Why not? Do we think Cloud gets less than 53% on Sephy indirectly? Or do we think Snake is 3%~ stronger than Samus?

Or do we think Snake beating Sephiroth wasn't some sort of bandwagon? I mean, it's possible Snake could have beaten him without one, but 53%? I dunno.


Snake doesn't have a bandwagon right now. He's done nothing of note to get one. You can also add 56% against Tifa to the list of Cloud/Sephiroth failures.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 3/19/2010 12:41:12 PM | message detail
Sephiroth probably gets 48% in a 24-hour match, and Snake probably already got bandwagoned there.

Snake's not getting anywhere near Cloud without a bandwagon.
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Hello, Dexter Morgan
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 12:41:28 PM | message detail
He's done nothing of note to get one.

What? Beating Sephiroth is nothing of note? Kirby did nothing of note before he beat Sonic, but hey.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:42:32 PM | message detail
Snake needs some bandwagoning to make up for the 12 extra hours. It doesn't matter that Sephiroth didn't win any hours, because:

1. Had the match been extended 12 hours, he would have won hours.
2. Any hour where Sephiroth is getting 49%, Cloud would get getting 52%+.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
TheSnowVilliers | Posted 3/19/2010 12:43:46 PM | message detail
Guys it's pointless to argue against Snake or for FF7 on this board. I thought that was already established.

Anyway, Cloud > Snake and Cloud > Link hopefully happens. It will probably be Cloud's last chance for a long time. Unless somehow Sony smartens up and actually taps into its biggest money making machine.
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The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt
Just make sure you know whether you're hangin' on the cross, or bangin' in the nails.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/19/2010 12:48:34 PM | message detail
Anyway, Cloud > Snake and Cloud > Link hopefully happens.

I'd sooner bet on Cloud failing to be CB runner up fior the third contest in a row than bet on Cloud beating Link.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/19/2010 12:54:27 PM | message detail
Snake depriving Cloud of even his consolation #2 position for the third contest in a row is something that fills me with such a bittersweet feeling. Cloud missed out on being in the final in 2005 too thanks to the ToC. Poor guy never can seem to catch a break.
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creativename | Posted 3/19/2010 12:56:11 PM | message detail
Whoops, forgot to adjust the updater for 24 hour matches.

As for Snake/Cloud, it's murky - Snake would've gotten about 52% in a 24 hour match. Which is damn good. In a 24 hour match I think Cloud gets like 53.50% on Samus. So the question is, does Seph 52/48 Samus? The better Seph does there the better for Snake. But while 53% on Samus is weak by Cloud's standards, it's still a powerhouse performance.

I'm holding out hope for Cloud - but he needs Snake's strength to stay static. No bandwagon. If Snake boosts even a bit, that should be enough. And historically speaking, anytime Snake has need a boost against FF7, he's gotten one. His record against FF7 is pretty immaculate.

Also if Snake needs any rallying, he shouldn't have trouble getting 1000 votes I'd guesstimate. Now in a 24 hour match that's going to be less than 1%, but, still highly significant if these two are in any way close - and they certainly seem to be close.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/19/2010 12:56:32 PM | message detail
Why does Snake need a bandwagon? He already has an upset train!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53966881
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OH YEAH!
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:58:27 PM | message detail
The nice thing about the rallying situation for Cloud is that Snake is going to up big until deep into second half of the match, so Snake ralliers won't realize they need to rally until much of the lead is already gone and Cloud is making monster cuts.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
creativename | Posted 3/19/2010 12:59:29 PM | message detail
And sox was very right about Link getting close to 65% here. I'm quite surprised. I really thought Mario would have a better showing than this.

After seeing this, I think if Snake does make the finals, he's getting toasted.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 1:01:17 PM | message detail
You expected any less?And do you know the worst?If Cloud wins and goes to the final then the<FF VII ALWAYS WINS!>will be in it's peak and Cloud will not even break 40%...
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creativename | Posted 3/19/2010 1:07:22 PM | message detail
It's not really that people think they always win, so much as it is people are just obsessively bitter towards that game and Cloud/Sephiroth and to a lesser extent Vincent.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 1:34:18 PM | message detail
so Snake ralliers won't realize they need to rally until much of the lead is already gone and Cloud is making monster cuts.

That's not necessarily true. If this match is within 51/49, you can bet Snake is going to get rallies.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 1:34:54 PM | message detail
And it may not even need to be that close.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/19/2010 1:47:01 PM | message detail
I don't think Solid had much a bandwagon against Sephiroth, considering the match before it featured him beating Squall for his fourth time. That said, the troops will be rallied against Cloud. We shouldn't see the same Solid we saw yesterday. It's a matter if that will be enough, since red sox mentioned two important points:

1. Had the match been extended 12 hours, he would have won hours.
2. Any hour where Sephiroth is getting 49%, Cloud would get getting 52%+.


I think Solid's taking it, but it's going to be a hell of a match and a rather defining one for our contests.


This could be the most exciting semi-final match since Mario/Crono in 2002 AND/OR the most defining semi-final match since Link/Cloud in 2003. Thank the deities for one-on-one contests again.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/19/2010 1:54:36 PM | message detail
Also, what's the word on the expected vote total today?
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 1:55:52 PM | message detail
Hard to say. I don't think there are any analogs to this poll, because lots of people probably thought it was a 12-hour poll.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 2:05:57 PM | message detail
Just at a glance, votals seem low, which is good. If Cloud wins, I'll need them to be as low as possible in the finals.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Mumei | Posted 3/19/2010 2:10:34 PM | message detail
They're very low. Look at how many votes are coming in each update. This match has pulled ~24,000 since noon; Sephiroth / Snake pulled ~45,000 in the same period.

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red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 2:12:53 PM | message detail
At a glance, I think we're headed for around 105-110k. That's pretty low, but there is the excuse of an SFF match.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 2:17:09 PM | message detail
Link has a long climb to reach 65%; I doubt he makes it.
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:>
KingBartz | Posted 3/19/2010 2:18:03 PM | message detail
I believe by now THE PLAN has suceeded.

Alucard > Sora, baby
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Contest bracket status: ELIMINATED
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/19/2010 2:18:37 PM | message detail
Well, you'd expect vote intake to be coming in somewhat slower than a 12 hour day match because there are a good number of people who have already voted. Still seems that we'll end up pretty low though. Cloud/Snake should bring in the votes though.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
Haguile | Posted 3/19/2010 2:21:58 PM | message detail
Random question, that I just thought of.

Phoenix with Hobo picture vs Edgeworth

Who would you take?
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B8 Liar Game
Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/19/2010 2:23:37 PM | message detail
Predict it:

1) Ocarina of Time Link
8) NES Link

4) Link to the Past Link
5) Toon Link

3) CD-I Link
6) Red Link

2) Twilight Princess Link
7) Spirit Tracks Link
Haguile | Posted 3/19/2010 2:25:04 PM | message detail

1) Ocarina of Time Link
8) NES Link

4) Link to the Past Link
5) Toon Link

3) CD-I Link
6) Red Link

2) Twilight Princess Link
7) Spirit Tracks Link


Ocarina>Nes
Past>Toon

CD-I>Red
TP>ST

Ocarina>Past

CD-I>TP(upset pick)

CD-I>Ocarina(super upset)
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B8 Liar Game
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/19/2010 2:29:30 PM | message detail

From: KingBartz | #295
I believe by now THE PLAN has suceeded.

Alucard > Sora, baby


Pfft, the plan will have only succeeded once Link breaks 60% on Cloud/Snake! Alucard's going to look like a ****ing champion compared to the x-stats of his competition!

There's a better chance of Guybrush Threepwood winning the 2011 Character Contest than there is Cloud or Snake winning this year's. Loser will have people rallying for Link to crush the winner, and either way that's awesome for me because I prefer Link to both these shmucks.
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Not Wylvane