GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 889

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 10:56:55 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #198
Again, I'm not sure why people expected Mario to do so well when he's had 7 matches against Link before and never broken 38% on him, and when the most recent matches (2008) had him below 35%. For that matter, I don't believe Mario has been at the level of Samus and Snake indirectly, either, since 2008. 54% on Charizard, even HG/SS Charizard (i.e. Mario is worth 58% on Bowser), doesn't indicate Samus or especially Snake levels of strength to me.


Well, we had just seen 4/5 matches with either closer-than-expected or upset results. Samus nearly got the big upset, Snake got it easily, and Charizard/Tifa worked their butts off for it. I originally had Link at 62% and expected that to be a relatively OK performance from Mario, but I bumped it down to 60% when I saw that Mario clearly got some pic advantages. Looks like it didn't matter. I agree that Cloud or Snake might be good for 45%, but this contest is over. All that's left now is to root for my bracket.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/19/2010 10:57:51 AM | message detail
As an Nintendo fanboy, I'm certainly looking forward to ten years of Nintendo dominating the competition as most other characters fade into obscurity and the new ones can't manage to gain and maintain a big enough following to become contest mainstays!

But I'm sure Bacon will just stop doing contests by the time that happens.
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Not Wylvane
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/19/2010 10:58:37 AM | message detail
Cloud's got this. The FFXIII boost was just delayed a week and a half.

It begins tomorrow.

For real.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 10:58:59 AM | message detail
That shall never happen.The site earns money from the contests.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:00:08 AM | message detail
Yes, people are finishing FFXIII and preparing to begin their second playthroughs. Second Playthrough Factor!
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 11:00:09 AM | message detail
Link is probably eternal champion. The only person that can fairly beat him gets anti-voted to hell and back. He was only able to beat him back when Cloud was beloved by this board; now, that couldn't be further from the truth. Cloud will lose to Snake, but I would be confident Cloud is still worth more against Link due to Snake needing bandwagons and having a Nintendo overlap.

Joke strength isn't worth anything in 1v1. Missingno. failed to even beat Sephiroth, the most anti-voted character in the contest.
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Lopen | Posted 3/19/2010 11:01:02 AM | message detail
Cloud was never beloved by the board, was he? Didn't CATS win the first minute against him in 2003?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:01:55 AM | message detail
red sox knows.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 11:02:51 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #207
Cloud was never beloved by the board, was he? Didn't CATS win the first minute against him in 2003?


I think it was probably closer to 10-20 seconds; I got a screen cap. CATS is special, though; he even led Link for a few seconds in 2004.
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vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 11:03:58 AM | message detail
CATS would win this board's vote against anyone that isn't Phoenix Wright probably. I should say Gamefaqs in general. Back in 2003 we didn't have 20 topics per FF7 match telling us about how "FF7 always wins!".
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:>
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:07:23 AM | message detail
You know, it's funny, I picked Cloud to beat Link in 2003 because I expected anti-champion voting.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:09:53 AM | message detail
Again, I'm not sure why people expected Mario to do so well when he's had 7 matches against Link before and never broken 38% on him, and when the most recent matches (2008) had him below 35%. For that matter, I don't believe Mario has been at the level of Samus and Snake indirectly, either, since 2008. 54% on Charizard, even HG/SS Charizard (i.e. Mario is worth 58% on Bowser), doesn't indicate Samus or especially Snake levels of strength to me.

No one should be surprised at what Mario is doing, this is expected. However Samus or Solid Snake wouldn't be doing any better in this position either. If Mario really did fall wouldn't he be doing worse right now?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:12:21 AM | message detail
Not since last year. I think Link has fallen a bit since last year, and Mario fell from 2007 to 2008 (he got 38% in 2007).

Samus would not be doing better, because she is worse at SFF than Mario. Snake would be doing a lot better in this position, and he will do a lot better in 2 days, if he beats Cloud tomorrow.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
HaRRicH | Posted 3/19/2010 11:13:52 AM | message detail
Yeah, but Mario was dealing with two other major platformers from or associated with Nintendo in those matches too with MMX and Samus; I feel comfortable thinking they had an effect on Mario on top of what Link did, especially given that we've seen Mario have more of a clear overlap with Mega Man/Samus than Link has in the past. I don't think Mario had any notable push to beat Crono either, considering the distance between them. Zack, maybe. Furthermore, they're four-ways, so that complicates things just because of their nature. As far as one-on-one goes, this is the first time since 2002 we've seen them face off, so we're pretty much helpless there. It doesn't hurt that Link's easily beating Mario below his 2002-number (37.47%), but we can agree that doesn't mean much right now.

Really though, I think the Link we've seen this round and the round before against Sonic is a different Link than the one we've seen the rest of the contest. I'm not taking MMX > Sonic and Luigi's going to look better against Link than Mario, at least under the context of two Mario-characters facing Link.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:20:42 AM | message detail
The Mario/Luigi gap looks fine considering the Mario/Bowser gap we observed through Charizard- considering that Link looked like he would have hit 72% against Luigi in a 24-hour match, the Mario/Luigi gap through Link will actually end up being larger than the Mario/Bowser gap through Charizard.

SFF matches with Link is only a part of it though- I think Mario has had pretty much no matches where he looked as impressive as Samus this year since 2008 other than that Megaman match. Nothing is conclusive, but there's a lot of circumstantial evidence for Samus > Mario post-2008, and it adds up. Snake is more clear I think- Mario has never done anything, not even in his strongest years, that has matched what Snake has done in 2008 and this year.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
HaRRicH | Posted 3/19/2010 11:26:36 AM | message detail
Yeah, I've been on-board for Solid > Mario since SSBB/MGS4 were released, and Samus > Mario indirectly is a smug reminder of how crappily Samus-supporters were treated after Mario beat her in 2005.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:28:13 AM | message detail
Having a bandwagon and defeating a clearly weaker Sephiroth and maybe Cloud? His performance against Squall doesn't really suggest that he's any more special now than he was in 2006. The reason Mario didn't look impressive was because he had no matches in which he could, all his match except against Big Boss had Nintendo roots.

His performance against Big Boss was pretty good though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
HaRRicH | Posted 3/19/2010 11:33:34 AM | message detail
It's worth mentioning that Big Boss has faced Mario four times now, and this year had Big Boss looking his best yet. Pictures and/or MGS4 may be to blame, however. It's also worth mentioning Mario barely beat Falco in a night-match without the SSB-ASV this year worse than Fox in the sprite-round. It's hard to use either comparison with certainty about Mario not looking so hot recently, but it doesn't help either.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:35:45 AM | message detail
MGS4 definitly helped Big Boss plus this is anti-blowoutFAQ. SFF has been pretty minimal compare to what we are use to. Ganondorf may break 15% on Link. >_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:42:35 AM | message detail
What has Snake done that is more impressive than anything Mario has ever done, even in 2005 or 2007, you ask?

43% on Cloud in 2008
59% on Squall in 2010
WINNING against Sephiroth

You could also add in 67% against Fox as very impressive, as was nearly beating MM and Zero combined, as was doubling Vivi and Zero, etc. etc. etc.

The only reason Mario might win a match against Snake nowadays is if Ulti's theory about Snake and Nintendo is correct, and Mario wins the Brawl SFF.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
Mumei | Posted 3/19/2010 11:50:47 AM | message detail
I've wondered if that thing about Snake / Nintendo is true. I mean, I know it's possible, because I'm one of those people who was almost completely unfamiliar with the character (beyond knowing a few quotes / story details), but has started voting for him more often since his inclusion in Brawl (and subsequently making Karma play through the MGS series!).

For me, he doesn't lose support when faced with Nintendo. He'd retain it against just about anyone not named Link - yes, I'm one of those.

I suppose it's possible that some people were introduced to the character in Brawl, vote for him based off of that, but when he's up against a character with a stronger emotional connection who is also from Brawl or a Nintendo character generally, he loses the support of those new voters. What evidence do we actually have of that, though?

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/19/2010 11:53:05 AM | message detail
The problem is that the matches that could have served as proof have incidentally been the ones with Solid **** used >_> Pikachu and Yoshi in particular. There's no telling how much is picture and how much could be Nintendo. Though I've always supported the theory simply because Samus winning with over 53% against him that year just does not seem right
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:55:00 AM | message detail
What has Snake done that is more impressive than anything Mario has ever done, even in 2005 or 2007, you ask?

43% on Cloud in 2008
59% on Squall in 2010
WINNING against Sephiroth

You could also add in 67% against Fox as very impressive, as was nearly beating MM and Zero combined, as was doubling Vivi and Zero, etc. etc. etc.



Just because you look great in one year doesn't mean you'll look great every year. 2008 was Snake's biggest year, I would be surprised if Snake didn't win against Mario that year. 59% against Squall isn't that impressive and falls within reason based on 2006. I don't see Squall getting much more than 55% on Big Boss do you? 67% on Fox was good until you take a look at Sora, Snake breaking 62% on him wouldn't be too surprising. Also winning against Sephiroth isn't that impressive when it is clearly known that he is weaker this year or did you not see Samus get 47% on Cloud 12 hours before?

Mario/Snake would be a nail-biter if it were held today which is why I want a third place match because Mario against the loser between Snake/Cloud should be interesting.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 11:58:04 AM | message detail
Also winning against Sephiroth isn't that impressive

I'm sorry, but winning against Sephiroth is very impressive. Mario can come back to challenge Snake on non-Brawl SFF grounds when he's got a win over Sephiroth himself. I think Snake will be waiting for a long time (unless he declines in strength in the future of course, which is possible).
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:01:12 PM | message detail
Again did you not see Samus breaking 47% on Cloud 12 hours earlier? I would be surprised if Mario failed to defeat Sephiroth now.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 3/19/2010 12:02:41 PM | message detail
Man I hate this new GameFAQs where we start talking about these other characters beating Sephiroth.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:03:45 PM | message detail
Samus, not Mario. And 47% against Cloud in a 12-hour match should not be enough to beat Sephiroth in a 24-hour match.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 12:04:59 PM | message detail
I wonder if Mario can get a 53% win on Seph after this kind of performance. I very much doubt it, and I'd have no trouble taking Snake over him next year, especially in the last rounds.

Remember that Snake's 2006 loss to Samus was foretold nearly perfectly by previous stats. Her 57% over Sonic translates to her beating Snake by almost the exact amount she did. With the biggest four guys removed, Samus was clearly head and shoulders above the rest and could have easily mustered ~57% performances on Sonic, Mega Man, or Crono.

Since then, of course, Snake has actually gotten Brawl released, and he's got what is undoubtedly the PS3's most popular game. I give a rematch to Snake, but Samus's 53% back in 2006 doesn't strike me as weird or anything.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 12:09:53 PM | message detail
Good golly miss molly, Link is having himself some monster updates.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/19/2010 12:11:09 PM | message detail
I was thrilled with 59% on Squall for a reason. It's simply worth more today than it was in 2006, as far as I'm concerned thanks to anti-blowoutFAQs. If you call that an 'unimpressive' mark for Snake, what on earth are you calling Mario being worth a scant 58% on Bowser? Bowser wasn't worth that much when Solid **** overrated him to hell and back.

Snake deserves to be favored over Mario, at least indirectly. C'mon. He's earned that much.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:11:29 PM | message detail
Samus, not Mario. And 47% against Cloud in a 12-hour match should not be enough to beat Sephiroth in a 24-hour match.

Samus had the day vote to look forward to. She would have kept it at least constant, the percent she got probably wouldn't have changed much.

At this point we're at a dead lock so we might as well wait until Link destroys the winner of Cloud/Snake to give us some kind of comparison.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/19/2010 12:13:02 PM | message detail
For the half hour before the ASV started, Link drew in 64.29% of the votes. Since the ASV started, Link is drawing in 66.80% of the votes.
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Every night will have a day. Even forever has to come to an end. 2/14/2010 24:00 EST
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 12:13:37 PM | message detail
And honestly: 53% on Sephiroth vs. 53% on Charizard. It's really tough not to go with Snake. Like, really tough.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:15:23 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:15:30 PM | message detail
I love this Link ASV. It's been too long since the last time.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:16:43 PM | message detail
I was thrilled with 59% on Squall for a reason. It's simply worth more today than it was in 2006, as far as I'm concerned thanks to anti-blowoutFAQs. If you call that an 'unimpressive' mark for Snake, what on earth are you calling Mario being worth a scant 58% on Bowser? Bowser wasn't worth that much when Solid **** overrated him to hell and back.

Anti-blowoutFAQs only prevented blowouts, not regular matches. Snake looked better yes, but he isn't above Mario/Samus where it's not debatable. I also laugh at trying to use a constant Charizard in this contest, if he wasn't this contest's version of Starcraft then I don't know what is.

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/19/2010 12:17:20 PM | message detail
I can't believe Link is consistently drawing doublings against Mario. This (coupled with Bowser's easy loss and Mario's own Charizard match) effectively kills the idea of a Mario Bros. boost; if anything, it seems like they've fallen and are comforted by the fact that Kingdom Hearts and the FFVII juggernauts have fallen more. It honestly seems like everything but Old Square and Pokemon have fallen this year. Everything except Link, that is, who got anti-voted against the scrubs but still takes our other elites and puts them through the meat grinder.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 12:18:42 PM | message detail
Strangely, I have voted for Link more this contest than ever before. His path has just been through characters I don't care for this time.
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:>
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:18:51 PM | message detail
There's also the possibility that Link has just dethroned the King of SFF by SFFing him.

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
red sox 777 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:19:21 PM | message detail
It hardly matters that Charizard became stronger, he's still not in Sephiroth's league. And yes, 59% on Squall is substantially more impressive than 63.5% on Big Boss.

Cloud and Sephiroth have fallen, but they haven't fallen off the face of the earth, as you will see on sunday. Link will probably get his biggest victory yet, but he's not coming close to 60%.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:22:15 PM | message detail
We will see then.

Unless Snake decides to match his percent against Sephiroth on Cloud, then yes he will break 40% on Link.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 12:22:56 PM | message detail
He'll probably break 40%, but Link is still probably in line for his biggest 1v1 win in the finals ever.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/19/2010 12:24:24 PM | message detail
I probably won't be around for the first hour or two of Snake vs Sephiroth. If creativename pops in, be sure to tell him that the poll updater isn't working. If he doesn't show up in time for the match, someone will have to collect updates until I get back online or creativename fixes it.
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Every night will have a day. Even forever has to come to an end. 2/14/2010 24:00 EST
charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:24:29 PM | message detail
He'll probably break 40%, but Link is still probably in line for his biggest 1v1 win in the finals ever.

That statement doesn't make sense.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 12:25:10 PM | message detail
How doesn't it make sense?
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vcharon | Posted 3/19/2010 12:25:40 PM | message detail
Oh, lol 2002. Sorry.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:26:00 PM | message detail
How doesn't it make sense?

Link can't fail and succeed at breaking 60% at the same time.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/19/2010 12:26:03 PM | message detail
If Snake isn't exceeding his Seph percentage significantly by the 12 hour mark I'll be quite disappointed with him. If ever there was a huge bandwagon jump in strength that could be predicted, this should be it.

I don't take Cloud lightly (I certainly don't think Link holds the guy under 40%), but this is a perfect storm brewing here.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/19/2010 12:27:27 PM | message detail
Yeah Snake does have everything going for him tomorrow.

But he also had that against Samus, based on board expectations.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 261/320 - Today's Winner: Link
Mumei | Posted 3/19/2010 12:27:44 PM | message detail
Karma, you home?

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"Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage