GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 888
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/18/2010 2:56:55 PM | message detail |
Heh, I should hope that no one would take Sephiroth at 47% on Cloud now. Good show, Samus, and good show Snake. I expect him to do slightly worse than Samus since he has to suffer through an all day match, but I suppose he could get a bandwagon to counteract it. I don't think he will, but the first three hours will certainly be enjoyable. --- Mustache...and Green... |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 2:57:45 PM | message detail |
I expect him to do slightly worse than Samus since he has to suffer through an all day match Worse than Samus? I think Snake's in good shape to win. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/18/2010 3:00:44 PM | message detail |
Really?
I guess I'm just bearish on Sephiroth. I certainly was last night but
no one seemed to agree with me. I'd definitely take Cloud to do much
better than this on Sephy. Snake's got my vote for sure, though! --- Mustache...and Green... |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/18/2010 3:04:32 PM | message detail |
The
fact that Snake is winning over Sephiroth in Europe means he probably
wins the Europe vote over Cloud in 2 days. And Sephiroth is barely
winning in Asia. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/18/2010 3:08:34 PM | message detail |
I'd definitely take Cloud to do much better than this on Sephy. That's only if Cloud can SFF Sephiroth. And I'm not so sure if Cloud could do that, seeing as our top guys in this contest have had some trouble SFFing their opponents. Although Cloud was always better than Sephiroth at handing out SFF. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
creativename | Posted 3/18/2010 3:11:05 PM | message detail |
There is no way Snake does worse than Samus. We'd all be shocked. From: -LusterSoldier- | #1004 It's been shown over and over that geolocation is not to be relied on for jack in terms of prediction. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/18/2010 3:11:11 PM | message detail |
No, I'd take Cloud to do much better than this before SFF. --- Mustache...and Green... |
shadow8021 | Posted 3/18/2010 3:12:14 PM | message detail |
What percentage does Mario need to get on Link for Tails to finish ahead of Sonic in the X-stats? --- WE ARE... |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 3/18/2010 3:12:47 PM | message detail |
From: RPGuy96 | #203 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1367 This was probably the least SFFish match between them. 2 years later Link got 52.44% on Cloud and 54.95% on Sephiroth. They're not that far apart. --- CBVIII: 104/122 - 248 pts, tied for 264th Night Pick: Cloud Day Pick: Sephiroth |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 3/18/2010 3:13:49 PM | message detail |
From: RPGuy96 | #207 He'd certainly do better, but does he make up the gap? That's the question. --- CBVIII: 104/122 - 248 pts, tied for 264th Night Pick: Cloud Day Pick: Sephiroth |
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/18/2010 3:16:35 PM | message detail |
This
was probably the least SFFish match between them. 2 years later Link
got 52.44% on Cloud and 54.95% on Sephiroth. They're not that far apart. And the year in between Cloud got 56%. I'm pretty skeptical that Sephiroth has managed to stay close to Cloud - none of his matches in the last four years point in that direction. He'd certainly do better, but does he make up the gap? That's the question. What gap? If Cloud would do better before SFF he'd beat Snake. I don't understand what your question is. But I'm hardly going to play the part of defending Cloud - I would very much like to see Snake win. --- Mustache...and Green... |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 3:19:34 PM | message detail |
Really?
I guess I'm just bearish on Sephiroth. I certainly was last night but
no one seemed to agree with me. I'd definitely take Cloud to do much
better than this on Sephy. Well, Europe was what bailed Cloud out in the first 12 hours yesterday. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3853®ion=EUR http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3852®ion=EUR It's not necessarily going to save him this time. I know Geolocation isn't the best thing to use, but Cloud definitely won't be getting 57% on Snake in Europe the first 12 hours. Plus, that first hour for Cloud against Snake is going to be brutal. Snake's beating Sephiroth worse than Cloud beat Samus. I don't think there's any way Cloud beats Snake worse than Samus because Snake actually has a night vote. At the very least, Snake will survive those first 12 hours, but beyond that, it's anyone's guess. I think rallying could save the day for Snake if it's close going into the ASV, like it did in 2008. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Psycho_Kenshin | Posted 3/18/2010 3:20:22 PM | message detail |
It's a beautiful thing how Snake is winning right now. Go Snake go! I've got him on top off my bracket of course, and it's more possible this year than ever. --- One Piece: Pirates with style! -= Metal Gear Solid: Tactical Espionage Action =- |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/18/2010 3:24:05 PM | message detail |
Cloud
is freakin' doomed. Yes, he gets 24 hours, but that doesn't seem to be
as big a deal now when Snake hasn't even come close to losing a 15
minute stretch yet, let alone a full hour. Cloud starts in a deep hole
with the Power Hour, and he'll be battling against a Snake that should
be stronger and more momentum-fueled than this one. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 3:25:48 PM | message detail |
But
I think the main thing is that Snake's just going to get such a big
lead on Cloud to begin with that he's going to have a hard time coming
back, especially once a lot of people start waking up and see that
Snake's winning. Sephiroth and Cloud have gotten lucky during night
matches that they faced characters who have terrible Euro votes, but
they won't have that advantage against Snake. I think the bandwagoning
is just going to keep compounding, so it doesn't necessarily matter
that Cloud would win by more than this (and I'm not entirely convinced he would because I don't think there's a huge gap between Snake and Samus). --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
vcharon | Posted 3/18/2010 3:26:10 PM | message detail |
Cloud has 0% chance here guys. Next two days are just a formality. --- :> |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 3:26:48 PM | message detail |
Well,
I mean, Cloud would win by more than this, due to SFF, but I don't
think the leap from Sephiroth to Cloud is large, nor do I think the
leap from Samus to Snake is large. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/18/2010 3:30:17 PM | message detail |
Sephiroth
already let me down with a 56% performance on Tifa. I wouldn't be
surprised to see a 55-45 difference between Cloud and Seph before SFF. Fortunately, that would still be within victory range for Snake thanks to the bandwagon! --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
creativename | Posted 3/18/2010 3:34:08 PM | message detail |
Some
math - assuming Squall has a strength of 35%, Snake is at 42.86%.
Assuming Samus is 40%, Cloud is at 42.38%. So that's pretty close. But
Squall might be a bit higher, Snake might boost slightly from beating
Seph, and also - Snake ain't losing a close match. From: PartOfYourWorld | #1054 The 24 hour match is a bigger deal than it looks then. That matters quite a bit. Snake's going to jump out to a huuuge lead - 12 hour night match and Cloud is likely screwed. 24 hours helps him, especially since he's probably naturally more of second half guy than Snake, relatively. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2010 3:50:06 PM | message detail |
It's
funny to me that Sephiroth has STILL only won one update...and like yo
said, he hasn't been that close to winning a fifteen-minute update
either. I'll also remind everyone again that Solid led Cloud for
forty-eight hours straight in 2008 after losing 57-43 to him the round
before that. If the bandwagon'ing, upset-starvation, and anti-votes are
to be believed in this contest, Cloud's going to struggle hard. Solid
has a good shot at winning the first half of the poll and will resist
in the second half...and if it comes down to clutch, MGS has that under
control. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
MagusMuddlefoot | Posted 3/18/2010 3:54:34 PM | message detail |
Actually Sephiroth has won two now. |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 3/18/2010 4:01:02 PM | message detail |
From: RPGuy96 | #211 The gap between Cloud and Seph.. I'm saying Snake is beating Sephiroth right now, but would Cloud win with a better percentage (not counting SFF) than Snake is currently? Personally I don't think Cloud is more than 54% on Sephiroth which is on the generous end. So the Cloud match could be close, then again Snake could get some bandwagoning and be a percentage point or two higher than he is right now and win outright. --- CBVIII: 104/122 - 248 pts, tied for 264th Night Pick: Cloud Day Pick: Sephiroth |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/18/2010 4:15:46 PM | message detail |
Good job, Snake. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 3/18/2010 4:20:24 PM | message detail |
I'm expecting Link > Snake to be the final result at this point, with Snake putting up a decent fight. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
DidYouMWISMe | Posted 3/18/2010 4:31:51 PM | message detail |
I
think Cloud would actually SFF Sephiroth more now than they did in
their 2K3 match. As more time grows since FFVII's release date, the
game's hero will have a growing recognition advantage over his
antagonist. Then again, this presents a challenge for Snake, too. Whatever strength FFVII's supporting cast has lost over the past few years, Cloud's least likely to lose as much ground as his cohorts. And when we speak of anti-voters and all those other fads, I think we're giving the average casual voter too much credit. In this match they're more likely to vote for whoever they recognize or prefer -- and slightly more casuals who were ambivalent towards Sephiroth (or actively dislike him as a character, or actively dislike him simply because he was a villain, and vote for Snake in such a way as to effectively support 'good' against 'evil') might swap for Cloud. I think Snake / Cloud is looking like it just might be a real 50/50 match -- a nailbiter to the finish line. |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/18/2010 4:35:37 PM | message detail |
Cloud/Snake
should be a very interesting match. It gives us an idea on where Snake
and Samus stand with each other, where Cloud and Sephiroth stand on
each other, and obviously where Cloud and Snake stand on each other. --- Not Wylvane |
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 3/18/2010 4:39:40 PM | message detail |
i'd like to apologize to everyone in this topic for how I acted earlier. it was irrational and stupid and pretty embarrassing. i had time to calm down while I was at work and I really apologize for that. wow. --- "Why did you come with me?" "Only because I wanted to go with you." |
fernan1234 | Posted 3/18/2010 4:43:51 PM | message detail |
This is the first time I notice Snake's lead going down. --- We demand more fan service! Every eva episode teaser promised more and never delivered. Damn you Anno! - "alien nine" in the GameFaqs board |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/18/2010 4:47:17 PM | message detail |
Wow, 2 cuts in a row for Sephiroth. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
MagusMuddlefoot | Posted 3/18/2010 4:47:28 PM | message detail |
Sephiroth double cut in a row zomg |
KingButz | Posted 3/18/2010 4:48:24 PM | message detail |
two consecutive cuts... Sephy wins the SNV? --- My Japanese alter-ego. Butz: FFV, not Larry. |
KingButz | Posted 3/18/2010 4:50:00 PM | message detail |
third one didnt do it. sorry ffvii bad guy --- My Japanese alter-ego. Butz: FFV, not Larry. |
DidYouMWISMe | Posted 3/18/2010 4:50:02 PM | message detail |
Sephy
still won't win. Assuming 30,000 more votes are cast -- a fairly
generous number -- Sephiroth would need to win about 17,340 of those
votes -- he'd have to win 57.8% of the remaining votes cast. He won't make that huge a swing. No chance whatsoever. This does increase the odds that Cloud will give Snake some real trouble, though. I wouldn't say we're headed for an easy match next round just yet. |
Gooper Blooper | Posted 3/18/2010 4:51:55 PM | message detail |
Hey, if you're apologizing, I forgive you. Good job. Now, let's just relax and watch this tourney come to a close. *raises Charizard mug* --- And then the car wash cost five dollars. Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 |
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 3/18/2010 4:52:52 PM | message detail |
Snake needs to beat Cloud worse than this so that we get Seph > Cloud in the x-stats IMO --- "Why did you come with me?" "Only because I wanted to go with you." |
DidYouMWISMe | Posted 3/18/2010 4:55:37 PM | message detail |
Snake needs to beat Cloud worse than this so that we get Seph > Cloud in the x-stats IMO If the bandwagon effect really is anything as powerful as some people suggest, it's possible. I wouldn't bet money on it, personally. I think Snake doesn't have the kind of ubiquity that L-Block enjoys to galvanize a true bandwagon, and I think Cloud's too strong an opponent with too rabid a fanbase to let it happen. But I'd rather see a good, 50-50 match that bounces back and forth before this contest ends, and since we know that no one is beating Link...this is a great last opportunity. |
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 3/18/2010 4:59:48 PM | message detail |
Yeah
I really don't think Snake has a prayer against Cloud. Cloud's more
than a couple steps ahead of Sephiroth and Snake will have to put up
with the Total Domination Zone(although Samus didn't seem to mind that
last night). --- "Why did you come with me?" "Only because I wanted to go with you." |
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 3/18/2010 5:00:49 PM | message detail |
Also MWIS how long you sticking around these parts for? --- "Why did you come with me?" "Only because I wanted to go with you." |
Lopen | Posted 3/18/2010 5:01:11 PM | message detail |
Dammit Snake do better 54% minimum is necessary. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
DidYouMWISMe | Posted 3/18/2010 5:10:25 PM | message detail |
Yeah I really don't think Snake has a prayer against Cloud. Even the worst-case scenario for Snake would probably have him losing something like 51.2%-48.8%, which is considerably better than most probably expected him to perform this contest. I can't imagine Cloud performing too much better than Sephiroth. A swing of several thousand votes is likely, and that'd make it close. A swing of more than ten thousand votes is extraordinarily unlikely. So a Cloud blowout -- or even simply a decisive, 53%-47% style victory -- simply isn't going to happen. |
DidYouMWISMe | Posted 3/18/2010 5:12:34 PM | message detail |
Also MWIS how long you sticking around these parts for? Depends on how long Snake lasts. Actually, I intend to only be around for the duration of the weekend. Once Monday rolls back around law school kicks back into full gear, so I won't have any more free time anyway. And I'm guessing by then we'll know exactly what happens to Snake. If Snake somehow, through some miracle, beats Link, though, I may have to stay in 'sick' from classes for a day in order to gloat. Have to have my priorities straight, right? |
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/18/2010 5:13:16 PM | message detail |
I
think Snake doesn't have the kind of ubiquity that L-Block enjoys to
galvanize a true bandwagon, and I think Cloud's too strong an opponent
with too rabid a fanbase to let it happen. Snake has actually already bandwagoned to beat Cloud once before: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3302 Cloud is a fair bit stronger. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3305 Snake beats Cloud held back by Sephiroth http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3306 Snake outright beats Cloud. This all happened in less than a week. --- Every night will have a day. Even forever has to come to an end. 2/14/2010 24:00 EST |
DidYouMWISMe | Posted 3/18/2010 5:16:10 PM | message detail |
1
v 1 matches are very different from Battle Royale style matches,
though. I doubt the kind of 'bandwagon effect' we saw there will
transfer over to a 1 v. 1. Among other things, when characters are gradually dropping off the grid, those who voted for now-eliminated characters in a Battle Royale have to shift their votes and effectively become freelancers -- so they're more likely to consider voting for a character performing better than expected, even if that character isn't truly their favorite character in the match. |
Lopen | Posted 3/18/2010 5:17:19 PM | message detail |
Man we already saw a bandwagon, unless you think Seph is only 3% stronger than Crono --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Kotetsu534 | Posted 3/18/2010 5:21:41 PM | message detail |
I
could see anything happen in Cloud/Snake and I wouldn't be surprised.
Cloud could go out and show that Seph has fallen a fair bit but he -
the hero - is still loved, drop the first few hours, kill the night and
rise/stall all through the rest of the match to a comfortable win;
Snake's intangibles might just be far too much for Cloud to cope with
and he wins at a canter, or they're really close (in which case I have
to favour Snake). I fear for Cloud though. He lost the US to Samus 51-49; in a 24 hour match he cannot count on being bailed out by Europe (and Asia), especially when, unlike Samus, Snake does very well here. I really hope he can make a real go of it though. --- Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XIII |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/18/2010 5:23:10 PM | message detail |
You
know it's entirely possible Crono was totally sapping Cloud there. It's
possible, I mean you'd expect Mario to take more votes from Link than
Ganondorf even despite their respective strengths. I'm more interested in how strong Sephiroth is though. I mean it's possible that Missingno is legit and he's 6th place now. Snake hasn't had any sort of gradual buildup or bandwagon and has looked only a bit stronger than his 06 level(see Squall) until now. Sephiroth hasn't given us any good comparisons, so I wonder what this means for him more than Snake. |
LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 5:28:08 PM | message detail |
From: SecksThaNemesis | Posted: 3/18/2010 4:52:52 PM | #235 If that happened You'd be my hero for that idea. --- http://i113.photobucket.com/albums/n237/Danielyoon10/B8sigbet-3.jpg Gamefaqs mods:"No, we moderate random posts for fun." |
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 3/18/2010 5:30:02 PM | message detail |
And
not only that, he needs to go out and beat LINK right after that so we
get Snake > Seph > Link > Cloud in the x-stats. --- "Why did you come with me?" "Only because I wanted to go with you." |
voltch | Posted 3/18/2010 5:31:45 PM | message detail |
wait you already shut your account down? --- Shakes Fist! |
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 3/18/2010 5:32:21 PM | message detail |
I
still haven't seen anything to indicate a bandwagon anywhere this year.
Missingno's trends were nothing at all like L-Block, Kirby or Snake
were in 4-ways. The Sephiroth match went almost exactly as the vote-in
poll's trends told us it would, despite adding in Sephiroth's horrible
early vote. You can say that there's an invisible bandwagon that's spread throughout the entire match, but that's not what we saw in the 4-ways. Missingno being a strong joke with a lot of rallies seems like the explanation that fits better. --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
