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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 886

Denzokuken | Posted 3/18/2010 12:06:35 AM | message detail
Never more than 53% either way. DST shift, 12 hour night match...this was bound to see a supposed underperformance from Cloud. The good thing is he's guaranteed to make the final now as no-one except Link can beat him in a 24 hour match (without some hefty rallying of course...).
HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2010 12:06:57 AM | message detail
Like clockwork, it's another lead-change.

Off to bed. Go Cloud, but I'm loving the intensity here and hope it remains close.
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zenk123 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:07:01 AM | message detail
wtf is going o

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Procyon A | Posted 3/18/2010 12:07:02 AM | message detail
I have Samus over Cloud in my bracket. But I also have a lot of stupid picks, so I don't think I prove anything.

Same.. I have 240 points somehow but I made lots of mistakes in the first few rounds and to be honest I don't know why I picked Samus over Cloud lol. It'd be awesome if I get it right but I'm not counting on it or anything.
Julian_Caesar | Posted 3/18/2010 12:09:08 AM | message detail

From: Denzokuken | #111
this was bound to see a supposed underperformance from Cloud.


Are you suggesting that a Samus lead at this point in the match was "predictable" or "bound to happen?" I hope I'm just reading you wrong, because I'm pretty sure that THIS level of underperformance is only something that could be seen in hindsight.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/18/2010 12:09:36 AM | message detail
The match is going to be won or lost in the next few hours - Cloud keeping it close until the end just spells his doom for fairly obvious reasons.

My guess is if Cloud builds up a substantial lead Samus will pretty much collapse for similarly obvious reasons as well... but if she keeps this up, he may not be able to do that.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 3/18/2010 12:10:40 AM | message detail
It saddens me that when I wake up in a few hours this will almost certainly not be as intense as it is right now. But who knows. It's so back-and-forth right now. Is that 12 lead changes?
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LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 12:10:54 AM | message detail
Samus Holds this update
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Denzokuken | Posted 3/18/2010 12:11:00 AM | message detail
Are you suggesting that a Samus lead at this point in the match was "predictable" or "bound to happen?"

err..yes. Remember Seph/Missingno? Seph was down 600 votes at the equivalent point of this match. Cloud > Seph, but Samus > Missingno. The only surprising thing is that Samus isn't leading by more than this...
Silverflash-x | Posted 3/18/2010 12:11:03 AM | message detail
Clouds gains 13 but Samus keeps the lead.
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CP724 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:11:18 AM | message detail
There must be some massive rallying going on in Europe or something. Cloud would usually be winning against Samus there like 65-35 here wouldnt he?
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derp
Julian_Caesar | Posted 3/18/2010 12:11:23 AM | message detail
I'd go further than that, KH...im sticking by my previous prediction that the match will be won or lost in the next hour...if Samus can last that long, the amount of votes coming in after that, even if in Cloud's favor, will drop off to the point that she ought to be able to make it up come morning

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zenk123 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:11:35 AM | message detail
What's the record for the most lead changes ever?

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So, what does happen when Pinocchio claims "my nose will now grow"?
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 12:11:46 AM | message detail

From: zenk123 | #063
What's the record for the most lead changes ever?


LTTP/CT

With a lot.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:12:12 AM | message detail
*wakes up*
*votes*

Oh. How's the match gone so far?

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NightMareBunny | Posted 3/18/2010 12:12:38 AM | message detail
samus is winning by 2%
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 12:12:53 AM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #065
*wakes up*
*votes*

Oh. How's the match gone so far?


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3852&num=2
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Denzokuken | Posted 3/18/2010 12:13:34 AM | message detail
There must be some massive rallying going on in Europe or something. Cloud would usually be winning against Samus there like 65-35 here wouldnt he?

Indeed, this is the only unpredictable, I daresay suspicious trend I've noted during the match. Samus should NOT be holding Cloud to 52% in Europe and gaining. Something strange going on here but we'll see what happens in the next hour.
Julian_Caesar | Posted 3/18/2010 12:15:02 AM | message detail

From: Denzokuken | #119
err..yes. Remember Seph/Missingno? Seph was down 600 votes at the equivalent point of this match. Cloud > Seph, but Samus > Missingno. The only surprising thing is that Samus isn't leading by more than this...


With the difference (to me, anyway) being that Missingno is a certified joke entry, in other words he's pretty much guaranteed to get ahead early and try to hang on for the win (in a night match, anyway). Samus, on the other hand, should have lost the lead a couple of hours ago, because she doesn't have nearly the same advantage in the early vote that Missingno (or any L-block type entry) has over their opponents.

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 3/18/2010 12:15:58 AM | message detail
"So I guess I'll see how crazy I was about the whole Samus vs. Cloud thing...."

"wut"

Needless to say I am QUITE happy with this result, win or lose.
LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 12:16:09 AM | message detail
still held update by samus
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Denzokuken | Posted 3/18/2010 12:16:40 AM | message detail
Samus, on the other hand, should have lost the lead a couple of hours ago, because she doesn't have nearly the same advantage in the early vote that Missingno (or any L-block type entry) has over their opponents.

Samus is being rallied
Silverflash-x | Posted 3/18/2010 12:17:05 AM | message detail
Samus gains a vote and keeps the lead. :D
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:17:18 AM | message detail
Man, Samus is determined to stop Cloud from facing Link this year.

What would it mean for the remaining contestants if Samus does manage to pull off this upset?
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LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 12:17:56 AM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | Posted: 3/18/2010 12:17:18 AM | #074
Man, Samus is determined to stop Cloud from facing Link this year.

What would it mean for the remaining contestants if Samus does manage to pull off this upset?


The winner of the contest would be like "What the hell just happened, and where did I get this money"
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 12:17:56 AM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #074
Man, Samus is determined to stop Cloud from facing Link this year.

What would it mean for the remaining contestants if Samus does manage to pull off this upset?


It means that our stats will be even worse than expected if Samus makes it to Link.

Snake is our only hope.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 3/18/2010 12:18:11 AM | message detail
How much you wanna bet Samus blowing the rest of this match gets contributed to ZSS factor?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/18/2010 12:18:17 AM | message detail
Fun fact - at the 3:15 update in her match against Jill, Samus let RE's heroine pull in 41% of the vote against her. In contrast, she just held Cloud Strife under 50% of the vote on that one tonight.

Upset starved, indeed.
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vcharon | Posted 3/18/2010 12:18:22 AM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #074
Man, Samus is determined to stop Cloud from facing Link this year.

What would it mean for the remaining contestants if Samus does manage to pull off this upset?


It means Link never finishes below 60% in a match this year.
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:>
Meeks54 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:18:39 AM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #074
Man, Samus is determined to stop Cloud from facing Link this year.

What would it mean for the remaining contestants if Samus does manage to pull off this upset?




It means the Seph>Link upset I want so bad can still happen. Not sure how, but hey.



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Kotetsu534 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:19:23 AM | message detail
This would involve comprehending the graph! Okay, lemme see. Looks like it's been close all the way.

I do note though that Samus has >51% in NA. This can only help Cloud during the night if he's keeping the match even with that level of deficit there.

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Denzokuken | Posted 3/18/2010 12:19:58 AM | message detail
Fun fact - at the 3:15 update in her match against Jill, Samus let RE's heroine pull in 41% of the vote against her. In contrast, she just held Cloud Strife under 50% of the vote on that one tonight.

DST shift... How did Samus do on Jill at the 2:15 update? That is what you should be looking at.
LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 12:20:52 AM | message detail
Cloud pulls ahead still not by much.
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Silverflash-x | Posted 3/18/2010 12:20:55 AM | message detail
Lead change #13
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A. None. Snakes don't have armpits.
vcharon | Posted 3/18/2010 12:21:07 AM | message detail
Let's see if he can hold it this time.
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:>
Agent M | Posted 3/18/2010 12:22:06 AM | message detail
Man, I'm as big a Samus fan as anyone, but even I didn't see thing coming. She's completely defying Cloud's usual routine of pounding his opponents into dust in the dead zone.

And if both Cloud and Seph lost to not-Link in the quarters - double FFVII humiliation!

Anyways this result rocks like no other, and now I don't want to go to sleep.
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LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 12:23:36 AM | message detail

From: Agent M | Posted: 3/18/2010 12:22:06 AM | #086
double FFVII humiliation!


Maybe people then will realize the game and it's characters are bad.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/18/2010 12:23:55 AM | message detail
Man, I'm as big a Samus fan as anyone, but even I didn't see thing coming. She's completely defying Cloud's usual routine of pounding his opponents into dust in the dead zone.

And if both Cloud and Seph lost to not-Link in the quarters - double FFVII humiliation!

Anyways this result rocks like no other, and now I don't want to go to sleep.


Same here. Cloud losing means the leaderboard gets hit with a tornado.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/18/2010 12:24:15 AM | message detail
DST shift... How did Samus do on Jill at the 2:15 update? That is what you should be looking at.

I know, but this makes for a more sensational comparison.

I would honestly be pretty worried for Cloud if you hadn't brought up the DST thing, but hey. Maybe it's just false hope; we'll see soon enough.

Maybe really soon if Cloud can hold the lead for more than one update!
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 3/18/2010 12:24:25 AM | message detail

From: Denzokuken | #162
Samus is being rallied


Which, at this point in the match, should not be happening, according to most predictions, even if it is Samus

Look, I totally understand that a Cloud underperformance could have been predicted...but you can't really sell me on the idea that a Samus lead at this point in the match could have been predicted...mostly because it wasn't. And as surprised as all the regulars are in this topic, and the casuals on the rest of the board, I don't think anyone saw this coming.

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NightMareBunny | Posted 3/18/2010 12:25:03 AM | message detail
i hope samus wins
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vcharon | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:05 AM | message detail
Aww yeah do it Cloud do it
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LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:05 AM | message detail
Well here goes Cloud finally pulling.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:08 AM | message detail
Whoa, Cloud maintained the lead!

Daylight Savings Time could spell doom for Cloud, who'd have guessed
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Topstorm87 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:21 AM | message detail
Whoops there goes the match.
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Julian_Caesar | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:29 AM | message detail
:(

looks like my discussion has been rendered moot

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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:44 AM | message detail
I think this could get ugly overnight.
Darn it Europe DST factor.
Articuno2001 | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:56 AM | message detail
next update Samus gains 63 votes?
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LordTMax | Posted 3/18/2010 12:26:59 AM | message detail

From: Topstorm87 | Posted: 3/18/2010 12:26:21 AM | #095
Whoops there goes the match.


Now now, We don't know that, I'm not saying the match is gone until cloud is at least at 51.5%.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/18/2010 12:27:01 AM | message detail
Is Cloud finally done screwing around?
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