GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 885

UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/17/2010 7:58:20 PM | message detail
Also known as Palmer's Victory Tour!™

Final Fantasy 7 to lose 24 consecutive hours to characters other than Link!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Vincent, Kirby, Missingno, et al group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters recently.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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I'll attract the enemy with my *human* call.... I'M SO WASTED, I'M SO WASTED!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 8:02:33 PM | message detail
Cloud > Samus, Snake > Sephiroth
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 8:04:03 PM | message detail
Snake to make Sephiroth look worse than Pikachu!

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 8:04:34 PM | message detail
Samus to make Cloud look worse than Jill!
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
I'm sorry, but calling Charizard A Pokemon is calling The Fonz a Fonz. - Haguile
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 8:04:58 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #003
Snake to make Sephiroth look worse than Pikachu!


Oh man, ExTha would implode and explode at the same time.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 8:05:50 PM | message detail
Link to make all of them look worse than Alucard!

Just as planned.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 9:11:55 PM | message detail
Continuing from the last topic, I've been drinking the Snake>Seph koolaid for a while now and this result is exactlty what I expected. Sephiroth has looked a lot worse than Cloud this contest.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:12:16 PM | message detail
Gonna get ugly, but at least Samus is doing a lot better than in 2004.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
I'm sorry, but calling Charizard A Pokemon is calling The Fonz a Fonz. - Haguile
voltch | Posted 3/17/2010 9:12:24 PM | message detail
All part of the plan- Lightning, FFXIII.
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Shakes Fist!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 9:12:33 PM | message detail

From: EternalxCourage | #497
Since when is Cloud a lot stronger than Seph, and Samus only a bit stronger than Snake? Do you forget 2006 entirely?


Actually, if you look at 2006, that's the conclusion you'd come to.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
Meeks54 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:12:53 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #007
Continuing from the last topic, I've been drinking the Snake>Seph koolaid for a while now and this result is exactlty what I expected. Sephiroth has looked a lot worse than Cloud this contest.




Snake fell of a cliff this contest.



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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
charmander6000 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:13:03 PM | message detail
Feeling better about Sephiroth > Snake.

Damn you Tifa causing me to doubt you.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 245/288 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Sephiroth
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/17/2010 9:13:20 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
paraboxx | Posted 3/17/2010 9:13:29 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3852&region=EUR

A chilling vision of things to come.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 9:13:30 PM | message detail
Man what were you people expecting. It's Cloud.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
voltch | Posted 3/17/2010 9:13:39 PM | message detail
Tifa is actually a man.
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Shakes Fist!
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/17/2010 9:13:44 PM | message detail
Samus doing better than in 2004 isn't exactly stellar. Cloud is antivoted even more these days (and he was antivoted quite a bit then), and there didn't use to be a Power Hour back then. Samus should really be doing better considering all the intangibles.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Meeks54 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:13:45 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #010
Actually, if you look at 2006, that's the conclusion you'd come to.




If you are drunk, sure.


If you are not, you'd see that Samus mauled Snake.
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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
voltch | Posted 3/17/2010 9:14:24 PM | message detail
since when is this dood! back on my screen?
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Shakes Fist!
red sox 777 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:14:45 PM | message detail
Cloud showing the doubters that he is still Cloud Strife.

Anyways, Samus and Snake really aren't the best characters to bandwagon. The kind of people bandwagons would attract to take down Cloud and Sephiroth would already vote for Snake or Samus over them anyway. Bandwagons thrive with weaker characters, or with situations in 4-ways where you can get people to change their vote strategically. In last year's final, I'm convinced most of Snake's bandwagon was Cloud and Crono fans who gave up on their character beating Link and voted Snake to see if he could pull it off.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
paulg235 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:14:45 PM | message detail

From: Meeks54 | #011
Snake fell of a cliff this contest.


But these was a chopper which he grabbed to keep him alive. Now he just needs to pull himself up to the inside of it.
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The Gamer In Me
My Signature's broken, just like your front door.
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 9:14:51 PM | message detail
You know, although I always root for the FF7 guys, I"m quite disappointed in the Nintendrones here.

I mean Cloud cuts already? That's just pathetic by them!
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/17/2010 9:14:56 PM | message detail
To be fair, we don't really have a good read on Sephiroth. He's had, what, a match with Marth? Other than that, his other three matches are a little iffy due to the SFF situation and, you know, Missingno, and before that he's been in four-ways.

So who the hell knows where this guy is?
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Not Wylvane
charmander6000 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:14:58 PM | message detail
Man what were you people expecting. It's Cloud.

Man what were you people expecting. It's Sephiroth.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 245/288 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Sephiroth
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/17/2010 9:15:03 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
258----1------------100.00
257----0------------0.00
256----0------------0.00
255----0------------0.00
254----0------------0.00
253----1------------100.00
252----1------------100.00
251----1------------100.00
250----2------------100.00
249----1------------100.00
248----1------------100.00
247----6------------100.00
246----2------------100.00
245----3------------100.00
244----9------------100.00
243----3------------100.00
242----13----------100.00
241----8------------87.50
240----12----------100.00
239----16----------100.00
238----20----------100.00
237----28----------100.00
236----25----------100.00
235----24----------100.00
234----45----------100.00
233----43----------97.67
232----42----------95.24
231----55----------100.00
230----52----------96.15
229----46----------97.83
228----60----------96.67
227----44----------95.45
226----38----------94.74
225----46----------95.65
224----56----------94.64
223----51----------88.24
222----58----------100.00
221----71----------92.96
220----60----------95.00
219----62----------95.16
218----84----------86.90
217----84----------85.71
216----86----------93.02
215----99----------87.88
214----103--------91.26
213----115--------86.09
212----138--------85.51
211----114--------91.23
210----126--------84.13
209----127--------88.98
208----161--------83.23
207----171--------84.80
206----158--------87.97
205----188--------86.17
204----202--------84.65
203----213--------80.28
202----178--------86.52
201----191--------83.25
200----218--------90.37
199----205--------83.90
198----225--------78.22
197----260--------80.77
196----237--------85.23
195----216--------80.09
194----289--------78.55
193----260--------79.62
192----262--------77.86
191----266--------84.21
190----275--------80.36
189----275--------76.36
188----265--------76.98
187----279--------76.34
186----254--------77.17
185----293--------74.06
184----266--------69.17
183----288--------73.96
182----293--------73.04
181----267--------72.28
180----255--------68.63
179----244--------60.25
178----251--------64.54
177----260--------68.46
176----262--------58.78
175----248--------63.71
174----256--------65.23
173----248--------64.92
172----281--------59.79
171----258--------64.34
170----219--------61.64
169----272--------54.78
168----225--------53.33
167----228--------65.79
166----215--------56.28
165----241--------50.21
164----227--------44.93
163----238--------51.26
162----225--------47.56
161----216--------51.85
160----198--------51.52
159----208--------54.33
158----190--------43.68
157----197--------42.13
156----186--------37.10
155----208--------43.75
154----196--------40.31
153----190--------33.16
152----179--------40.78
151----173--------34.68
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/17/2010 9:15:08 PM | message detail
150----173--------38.73
149----171--------33.33
148----164--------34.15
147----191--------35.08
146----165--------30.30
145----162--------36.42
144----194--------31.96
143----139--------30.94
142----161--------27.95
141----147--------34.69
140----130--------20.00
139----160--------26.88
138----152--------20.39
137----130--------33.08
136----131--------24.43
135----129--------24.81
134----130--------20.77
133----150--------26.00
132----129--------27.13
131----140--------26.43
130----118--------25.42
129----137--------21.90
128----132--------21.21
127----128--------21.09
126----140--------20.71
125----130--------20.00
124----117--------18.80
123----121--------18.18
122----151--------19.87
121----97----------21.65
120----110--------17.27
119----117--------11.11
118----133--------12.03
117----104--------15.38
116----118--------12.71
115----105--------12.38
114----107--------14.02
113----110--------14.55
112----123--------9.76
111----119--------10.92
110----111--------10.81
109----124--------9.68
108----100--------6.00
107----115--------11.30
106----121--------7.44
105----103--------8.74
104----102--------3.92
103----105--------8.57
102----129--------6.98
101----112--------8.93
100----114--------8.77
99------93----------5.38
98------119--------6.72
97------104--------0.96
96------95----------1.05
95------98----------4.08
94------106--------6.60
93------101--------4.95
92------86----------1.16
91------102--------1.96
90------103--------2.91
89------91----------8.79
88------107--------0.93
87------87----------1.15
86------103--------2.91
85------79----------3.80
84------69----------1.45
...
82------89----------1.12
...
80------84----------3.57
...
78------62----------1.61
77------54----------3.70
...
73------63----------3.17
...
71------42----------2.38
...
69------54----------3.70
68------49----------2.04
...
57------28----------3.57
...
44------13----------7.69

Omitted scores got it wrong.

At Round 5, the prediction percentage of even Noble Nine members start to wane. Just under half the brackets had Mario winning the match. The top tiers still do really well. Excluding the one 241 bracket that got the match wrong, prediction percentage stays above 90 down to the 224 brackets. The prediction percentage slowly fades from there.

1 person fell off the Top 50 this time. This is the first time since Charizard's last match. GreatGen did not have Mario winning the match. They didn't have Charizard beating Bowser so I'm not sure who they thought would win this one.
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Every night will have a day. Even forever has to come to an end. 2/14/2010 24:00 EST
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 9:15:18 PM | message detail
Ha, nice stall, Samus.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
paulg235 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:15:18 PM | message detail
2 Vote Cut
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The Gamer In Me
"paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/17/2010 9:15:30 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #007
I've been drinking the Snake>Seph koolaid


OH YEAH

but for real, its all over but the crying for Karma Hunter :/
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This is good...isn't it? - Big motha****ing Boss
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 9:15:54 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #024
Man what were you people expecting. It's Cloud.

Man what were you people expecting. It's Sephiroth.


Except Sephiroth has looked like ass fall contest. Cloud's doubling of Ryu>anything Samus did.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
paraboxx | Posted 3/17/2010 9:16:58 PM | message detail
Samus doing better than in 2004 isn't exactly stellar. Cloud is antivoted even more these days (and he was antivoted quite a bit then), and there didn't use to be a Power Hour back then. Samus should really be doing better considering all the intangibles.

On the other hand, all Samus has going for her right now is Other M hype. Which there doesn't seem to be much of. (The most I've seen is people whining about her voice actress.)
charmander6000 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:17:10 PM | message detail
Except Sephiroth has looked like ass fall contest. Cloud's doubling of Ryu>anything Samus did.

Cloud was nowhere near doubling Ryu. Also Samus was pretty impressive this contest, unlike Snake.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 245/288 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Sephiroth
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 3/17/2010 9:17:14 PM | message detail
Sephiroth is worth around 46-47% on Cloud. Snake is maintaining at his 2008's level if you extrapolate Zero through his division. (Snake scored 67% on Zero in 2008, Snake scored 66% on Zero this year through Auron/Squall). I would take 2010 Zero > 2008 Zero tbh.

Plus, with the Missingno backlash and Snake likely being more bandwagon worthy than Samus, welcome to the main event of this contest.
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Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/17/2010 9:17:22 PM | message detail
So how long will Samus last until Cloud finally overtakes her?
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Not Wylvane
Meeks54 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:17:29 PM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #023
To be fair, we don't really have a good read on Sephiroth. He's had, what, a match with Marth? Other than that, his other three matches are a little iffy due to the SFF situation and, you know, Missingno, and before that he's been in four-ways.

So who the hell knows where this guy is?


We've had a great read on Snake however. Awful board vote. Dies in the day. Would have been utterly crushed by Pikachu in a day match, and had an outside show to lose a 24 hour match to the rat.


This is the stuff of being Clinkiroth?




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DO YOU REALIZE THAT JACK BAUER JUST KILLED 3 MEN WHILE HANDCUFFED, BAREHANDED, DISEASED, DRUGGED AFTER HAVING A NEEDLE STUCK IN HIS NECK???
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/17/2010 9:17:40 PM | message detail
Man you people act like I even believe Samus is on Snake's level of strength! I wouldn't take Samus > Seph!

There are other factors to consider of course, all of which can be found in my one-of-a-kind Crew Writeup available where all Analysis Crew writeups are sold
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http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:17:50 PM | message detail
15, maybe 20 more minutes, I think.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
I'm sorry, but calling Charizard A Pokemon is calling The Fonz a Fonz. - Haguile
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 9:18:02 PM | message detail
unlike Snake.

PIKACHU MATCH IS LEGIT

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 9:18:20 PM | message detail
And Cloud got 66% on Ryu. That's close enough for a doubling.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
Hochimihnister | Posted 3/17/2010 9:18:26 PM | message detail
Sephiroth has no chance aainst Snake tomorrow. Not after how bad he did against Tifa
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/17/2010 9:18:28 PM | message detail
Man.

MWC, you need to stop getting suspended. This place is too fun with you in it.
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I am the dragon of blood, a relentless prince of pain
Renouncing God on his throne, my blood is forever stained.
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/17/2010 9:18:47 PM | message detail
Actually, if you look at 2006, that's the conclusion you'd come to.

Erm...Snake was 3% weaker than Samus, and Seph was 2% weaker than Cloud? o.O
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The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt
Yeah...it probably is. But I've got to do something, right?
red sox 777 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:18:50 PM | message detail
Only a cut of 2- Samus wants to stay in the lead longer than Pikachu did.

I figure Cloud is still worth 52-53% on Sephiroth, so if he finishes with 55% here, Sephiroth would have 52-53% in his place. I don't think the day/night thing really matters much, all 4 of the characters in today's match have fairly balanced trends between the 2 halves. The 12-hour format does matter, in that less time hurts FFVII substantially regardless of which half it is, but both these matches are 12 hours. So since I think Snake and Samus are pretty close this year, I'll go with Sephiroth getting 52%ish today.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:19:17 PM | message detail
PIKACHU MATCH IS LEGIT

Oh you believe that? Nevermind then guess I don't need to convince you.

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 245/288 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Sephiroth
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:20:25 PM | message detail
....ha. Very nice.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
I'm sorry, but calling Charizard A Pokemon is calling The Fonz a Fonz. - Haguile
Master Moltar | Posted 3/17/2010 9:20:33 PM | message detail
all hail the queen

fighting on bravely
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Moltar Status: Prediction: Cloud > Samus (242/288)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/17/2010 9:20:34 PM | message detail
What a stallfest.
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 9:20:36 PM | message detail
Samus not going down without a fight.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
Janus5000 | Posted 3/17/2010 9:20:37 PM | message detail
Hahahaha, gain of one.

Well played, Samus.
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/17/2010 9:20:39 PM | message detail
1 vote gain!
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!