GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 884

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/17/2010 7:13:53 PM | message detail
I still don't see how this is anti-voting.

People voting in the poll don't like one character, therefore they vote for the other. They don't want one character to win, so they vote for the other. That's how the contest works in all cases. You could say that Falcon didn't win because he was anti-voted if you are using it in that sense.

Nobody gets 'anti-voted'...it's a popularity contest. This whole term being thrown around is just false. That is the characters intrinsic strength at all times. If they have a bad time period then it's just an unfavorable time period. Case closed.


That's bullcrap. For one: Pikachu vs. PaRappa the Rapper in 2002. No way in hell PaRappa gets close to Pika unless Pika was anti-voted.
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creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:14:17 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #1706
If I personally was making any adjustments, I'd set Mega Man to a conservative 44%-45%, calculate Bowser off Charizard's current performance, and then calculcate Charizard as like 51% on Bowser or something. Then base Charizard's portion of the bracket on that value.


Actually let me work this out right now. Assuming Zard finishes with 46.25% here, Bowser would work out to 41.87% on Mario, and 51% on that would work Zard out to 42.73%. Which would then re-work Bowser to 38.69% on Mario.

Basically the same as the 43% for Zard Leon just posted. Though this seems a bit high to me, perhaps 42% would be better, but we're basically just stabbing at crap in the dark anyway so what does it matter.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:14:20 PM | message detail
You could probably stand to bring down Kratos and friends and bring up Hayabusa and friends, but I have no idea by how much.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 7:15:25 PM | message detail
Bowser at 38.69% on Mario seems a bit low, if anything. Luigi and Yoshi point to the Mario characters right under Mario hulking up a lot this year, and there's only so low I would put Sora against Mario.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 7:16:14 PM | message detail
And drop a Duke a some due to the advantages he had in that ma-

Screw it, it is impossible to adjust these stats. All hail Duke Nukem>Zack Fair

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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:17:12 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #350
If you're going to drop Charizard 3+% on Mario in adjusted stats due to HG/SS shenanigans, why not take it off his performance against Bowser too? If you're only going to do one, you may as well just do neither.


I didn't think about that, actually. Let's see.

Second Quarter Stats

Mario – 50.00%
Mega Man – 46.00%
Charizard – 43.00%
Bowser Koopa - 41.93%
Kratos – 39.14%
Sora - 37.99%
Big Boss – 36.84%
Zack Fair – 35.27%
Cid Highwind – 34.00%
L-Block – 33.85%
Kefka Palazzo - 32.17%
Frog - 30.84%
Duke Nukem – 30.75%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 30.55%
Yuna – 29.20%
Midna - 27.63%
Isaac – 26.75%
Ike – 25.90%
Ryu Hayabusa – 25.62%
Arthas Menethil - 25.34%
Zidane Tribal – 25.10%
Laharl - 24.50%
HK-47 – 24.39%
Master Chief – 24.31%
Neku Sakuraba – 21.40%
Crash Bandicoot – 19.58%
Prinny – 19.43%
Spy – 19.34%
Falco Lombardi – 18.96%
Claptrap – 17.89%
Miles Edgeworth – 17.52%
Professor Layton – 16.70%

Better?
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 7:17:48 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 3/17/2010 10:16:14 PM | #355
And drop a Duke a some due to the advantages he had in that ma-

Screw it, it is impossible to adjust these stats. All hail Duke Nukem>Zack Fair


HEIL
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creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:17:50 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #1751
That's bullcrap. For one: Pikachu vs. PaRappa the Rapper in 2002. No way in hell PaRappa gets close to Pika unless Pika was anti-voted.


Well actually that's a very bad example, considering how horribly weak Pikachu was back then it's not hard for another real weak character to get close to him at all. Pikachu used to be complete fodder.

From: KamikazePotato | #1754
Bowser at 38.69% on Mario seems a bit low, if anything. Luigi and Yoshi point to the Mario characters right under Mario hulking up a lot this year, and there's only so low I would put Sora against Mario.


It's first half Sora, who's a different, more pathetic beast entirely.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 7:18:13 PM | message detail
Bump up Sora's guys. He looks a couple % worse due to having a night match against Bowser.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:18:30 PM | message detail
Laharl - 24.50%
Master Chief – 24.31%


That's all I really wanted to see. Thanks.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 7:18:44 PM | message detail
That looks much nicer. Duke/Yuna is still 'wat', but it warms my heart, so I'm not complaining!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 7:19:59 PM | message detail
Duke is one of those instances where he looks waaay better in the stats then he actually is. Altair managed to cut off 1800 votes on him in 2k7 during the ASV, and he had that ridiculous flag picture.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/17/2010 7:20:17 PM | message detail
Well actually that's a very bad example, considering how horribly weak Pikachu was back then it's not hard for another real weak character to get close to him at all. Pikachu used to be complete fodder.

Whoops.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:21:27 PM | message detail
The Duke finishes in the stats wherever he wants to.

Boy.

Man, I miss that Milk Nukem alt.
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creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:21:49 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #1753
You could probably stand to bring down Kratos and friends and bring up Hayabusa and friends, but I have no idea by how much.


Well you can't adjust everything right :) Then it becomes more like a painting or sculpture, where you're recalculating everything purely to fit preconceived notions. I agree Hayabusa and friends are underrated (not so sure about Kratos overrated, I don't see why he'd overperform), but, there's nothing to base that adjustment off of, nor anything concrete to assume he underperformed other than pic factor.

At least with the whole Bowser/Kratos crew we have some pretty good data that supports Zard hulking up. And the Mario/Mega Man SFF thing is pretty logical.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 7:22:54 PM | message detail
(not so sure about Kratos overrated, I don't see why he'd overperform)

http://gaygamer.net/images/Kratos%20Slurpee.jpg

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 7:24:02 PM | message detail
Slurpee Factor second best after Hockey Factor
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creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:24:12 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #1759
Bump up Sora's guys. He looks a couple % worse due to having a night match against Bowser.


Trying to actually make day/night match adjustments in all these various matches would land you in a heap of trouble I think.

Sora's would be amongst the most obvious and simple I agree, but it opens up a can of worms.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:24:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, trying to make arbitrary adjustments based on night/day would be more trouble than it's worth.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:25:18 PM | message detail
Basically, what you're going to have to do is take the raw stats and just make your own interpretations about what's too high, what's too low, etc. That's all there is to it.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/17/2010 7:28:50 PM | message detail
Tails still looks really good at 30% on Mario. Now we just have to figure out how to adjust Sonic's bracket, because we're gonna end up with some crazy things there. But mostly I'm just happy with Tails back to being a solid mid-carder.
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:28:58 PM | message detail
Oh, I agree wholeheartedly - that's why I said I have no idea by how much. For Kratos and friends (wait, Kratos has friends!?) I was working on the assumption that Charizard got stronger from HG/SS on top of bandwagoning, so Kratos faced a weaker Charizard.

ANYWAY I am very much looking forward to the five minute Samus stats tonight. Over/under on Samus winning would probably be 60% at the freeze and at least 54% (800-1000 votes) at the end of the Power Hour, right?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:30:46 PM | message detail
If Samus is ahead by 1000 at the end of the first hour...I'd still give Cloud a chance due to Europe, but I'd favor Samus.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/17/2010 7:31:59 PM | message detail
I'm so mad that I'm gonna have to miss the Power Hour tonight. Stupid basketball league I'm in. But going back and looking at the board's over-reactions will be glorious.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 7:33:06 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | Posted: 3/17/2010 10:28:50 PM | #371
Tails still looks really good at 30% on Mario. Now we just have to figure out how to adjust Sonic's bracket, because we're gonna end up with some crazy things there. But mostly I'm just happy with Tails back to being a solid mid-carder.


Back? He never was. He was, at best, a low midcarder. >_>
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:33:50 PM | message detail
Yeah, 30% on Mario isn't solid midcard. That's more like low midcard.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/17/2010 7:33:52 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #370
Basically, what you're going to have to do is take the raw stats and just make your own interpretations about what's too high, what's too low, etc. That's all there is to it.


Isn't that what everyone is arguing about right now in terms of how to adjust this mess?

No matter what you do, there's too much SFF, bandwagoning, and day/night disparity here to make these stats useful. Any adjusted x-stats will be just as unreliable as the cluser**** we currently have.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/17/2010 7:33:56 PM | message detail
Samus is never going to lead, guys.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:35:05 PM | message detail
Isn't that what everyone is arguing about right now in terms of how to adjust this mess?

Yeah, but I was just messing around with stuff to see what it looks like. I'm not planning on making any "adjusted" stats this year.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:35:36 PM | message detail
So, did Charizard impress or did he fall short of expectations?

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/17/2010 7:36:53 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #347
I'd like to apologize for my attitude in the last little bit. Shouldn't have let myself get so carried away.


Oh you don't have to apologize, rofl. After the contest we'll have raw stats plus weird adjustments and call it a day like always.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/17/2010 7:37:23 PM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #380
So, did Charizard impress or did he fall short of expectations?


46% on the fourth strongest character on the site?

Major disappointment!
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 7:37:25 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 3/17/2010 10:33:56 PM | #378
Samus is never going to lead, guys.


I'd bet money on Samus leading for 5 minutes, maybe even 15. Cloud will win, but his power hour is just sorry.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/17/2010 7:39:44 PM | message detail
I'd bet money(not a lot of it mind you) on Samus trailing by the freeze.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:40:15 PM | message detail
Anyone who think Samus isn't going to jump out to a goofy 13-3 lead or something equally goofy like she's done on everyone so far is delusional. Sorry ExTha, she's facing the other Clinkeroth FFVII guy, you don't have an excuse this time!
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/17/2010 7:41:36 PM | message detail
30% on Mario will end up being around 25% on Link at worst, right? I thought 25% was above a low midcard.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:43:33 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #386
30% on Mario will end up being around 25% on Link at worst, right? I thought 25% was above a low midcard.


Assuming Mario gets 40% on Link (which is probably his best case scenario), that would put Tails at 24.44%.
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creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:46:53 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #1856
Yeah, 30% on Mario isn't solid midcard. That's more like low midcard.


30% on Mario is fairly solid midcard I think, actually. I think Kelshen was saying Tails is higher than ever before.

From: ExThaNemesis | #1858
Samus is never going to lead, guys.


She will. But if she's actually up with 54% an hour in, it's tough for me to imagine her losing.

From: LeonhartFour | #1859
Yeah, but I was just messing around with stuff to see what it looks like. I'm not planning on making any "adjusted" stats this year.


Aw! Too bad, I was going to put yours up on my site. You did a great job with 4ways somehow, I was confident you'd be up to the task in giving us the best stats of anyone :)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:48:33 PM | message detail
You did a great job with 4ways somehow, I was confident you'd be up to the task in giving us the best stats of anyone :)

Well, if you really want them for "official" purposes, I guess I could try my hand at it.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/17/2010 7:49:46 PM | message detail
What's the cutoff for a low mid-carder?
And either way, that's about a 4% gain for Tails since we last saw him 1v1. (And it's even more before you adjusted the standings for SFF and hype and other stuff.)
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:50:04 PM | message detail
I really see this being like Sephiroth/Missingno deja vu. I wouldn't be too surprised if Cloud only got something horrible like 51.50% by the finish.

Anti-FF7 fever is at record levels, and this is a night match, which favors should favor Samus noticeably. Cloud's daylight vote and dead hour vote should win him the match, but this will be ugly for him for a long time. And the board will probably be quite excited during the early vote as Cloud looks like ass.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:50:27 PM | message detail
Low midcard to me is like 20-22%-ish on Link.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:51:23 PM | message detail
So is there ANY way Samus beats Cloud but Sephiroth beats Snake?
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/17/2010 7:51:29 PM | message detail
So 30% on Mario is decently above low-midcard. I think you just contradicted yourself.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:51:59 PM | message detail
So, what does Samus have to be at the freeze for you guys to give her a 50/50 shot at beating Cloud?

Since I'll probably be out for the start of Snake/Seph, same question for those two too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:52:10 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #394
So 30% on Mario is decently above low-midcard. I think you just contradicted yourself.


Well, I was stating a best-case scenario for Tails. I think he's going to end up a bit overrated in the final stats anyway.
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creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:52:11 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #1909
You did a great job with 4ways somehow, I was confident you'd be up to the task in giving us the best stats of anyone :)

Well, if you really want them for "official" purposes, I guess I could try my hand at it.


Well I don't know if anythings "official" with adjusted stats, but I would've liked to have seen them. If you don't want to bother though that's fine of course, they can be some real work.
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tgs2 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:53:34 PM | message detail
It might be possible for Link to be too strong this year. He could come close to doubling Mario then 60-40 Steroid Snake/Cloud (Of course the latter is unlikely, but fun to think about). What would the stats look like then?

Sorry if this question is stupid or anything.
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creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:54:34 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #1955
So, what does Samus have to be at the freeze for you guys to give her a 50/50 shot at beating Cloud?

Since I'll probably be out for the start of Snake/Seph, same question for those two too.


I think 53% and under, Cloud's in real good shape. 55% and over, Cloud's in trouble. Under 54% Cloud probably has it but there's doubts. 54%-55%, who knows what happens.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:54:36 PM | message detail

From: tgs2 | #398
It might be possible for Link to be too strong this year. He could come close to doubling Mario then 60-40 Steroid Snake/Cloud (Of course the latter is unlikely, but fun to think about). What would the stats look like then?

Sorry if this question is stupid or anything.


If that happens, you might as well do this:

Link - 50.00%
Everyone Else - LOL
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