GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 884
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:36:06 PM | message detail |
And
why are we assuming that Mega Man suddenly made a big jump up toward
Mario's level again anyway? Inconclusive matches against unproven or
unreliable characters? Hey, look at this: Solid Snake – 50.00% Zero – 34.08% Remember what Zero got on Snake in round 2 in 2008? 32.95%. Not seeing any sort of big jump there. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 6:36:27 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #1453 That's not surprising. People even talked before this match about how it was doubtful Mario would SFF him, since Pokemon doesn't get SFFed by other Nintendo. It's like they don't overlap. Reminds me of Final Fantasy and Chrono Trigger actually. Stuff you'd expect to overlap, but doesn't ever show much of it. And as you said, I think the problem is that Zard had boosted for the Bowser match. Perhaps HG/SS was involved, but I think it was more normal bandwagoning. But whatever the case, I don't think he's even boosted much since that match, maybe a couple points. But stat-wise, with the endless series of bandwagoning, SFF, possible rSFF (Seph/Tifa), day/night matches, FF7 guys just not built for 12-hour matches due to anti-votes...you're going to have to use a lot of personal judgement to get any meaningful info out of these stats. They're a mess, and we all know that. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/17/2010 6:36:37 PM | message detail |
No anti-voting huh? Tell that to Sephiroth last week. >_>; --- "Why did you come with me?" "Only because I wanted to go with you." |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:36:53 PM | message detail |
Leon, you are being absolutely impossible right now. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/17/2010 6:37:11 PM | message detail |
Have we ever seen cases of Pokemon getting SFFd more than a little bit? Pre-2007 doesn't count. Mario/Megaman made me lose hope. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:37:49 PM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #304 Yeah, and you're not arguing from a fanboy perspective at all. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/17/2010 6:38:54 PM | message detail |
ExTha in what way was that anti-voting? I mean, let me get something straight. If you vote for a different character in the poll, because you don't like the other character, in a popularity contest, that's anti-voting? I would have always thought that voting based on preference is what this whole contest is about. In essence...characters that are deemed to have 'anti-votes' are actually just not popular with the demographic that is voting early on in the match. It's that simple. They don't like that character, so they vote for the other one. That is the whole point of this contest. It's a legitimate vote. I really don't get this whole anti-vote thing. --- The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt Yeah...it probably is. But I've got to do something, right? |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:38:55 PM | message detail |
I'm not.
I've presented several well-thought out arguments and you've done
nothing but go "Yeah, well I don't believe that, quit being such a
Pokefreak GOD." And now you're trying to downplay Mega Man's performances of all things? Really? --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/17/2010 6:39:24 PM | message detail |
Unproven?
After 2 years of 4-ways, Zack has as much support for his strength as
any character in the bracket besides the Noble Nine, and more than some
of them even. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 6:39:52 PM | message detail |
From: EternalxCourage | #1460 12-hour matches, obviously. In a 24-hour match, if you're anti-voted, you are what you are. That's just intrinsic strength. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:40:22 PM | message detail |
In
fact, I'm going to throw that incredibly annoying statement right back
in your face: Yeah, you're not arguing from an anti-Pokemon perspective
at all. I see you took Mario to clear 60% here in the Crew - this
obviously means that you can't be trusted. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:41:00 PM | message detail |
And now you're trying to downplay Mega Man's performances of all things? Really? I was already downplaying them before this match ever happened. I was always skeptical of those performances. I wanted Mega Man to do well just for the sake of it, but Mario getting 56-58% on Mega Man isn't that surprising. Nobody would've been surprised if he got that with no SFF based on previous years' Mega Man. I just don't think there's anything conclusive to say Mega Man is any stronger than previous years either. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:41:42 PM | message detail |
I just don't think there's anything conclusive to say Mega Man is any stronger than previous years either. ... --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:42:00 PM | message detail |
Yeah, you're not arguing from an anti-Pokemon perspective at all. I actually like Charizard. And the only reason I took Mario to clear 60% there was because no one else did, just for the sake of it. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:42:22 PM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #313 Instead of giving me ellipses, why don't you try giving me something instead? --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:42:58 PM | message detail |
I've
seen you being down on Pokemon all contest. I am going to take this to
mean that you're biased and can't be trusted with any analysis
whatsoever pertaining them. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:43:04 PM | message detail |
After
2 years of 4-ways, Zack has as much support for his strength as any
character in the bracket besides the Noble Nine, and more than some of
them even. Zack only had 2008. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 6:43:09 PM | message detail |
I
don't think Mega's near his old-school strength, but there's plenty of
reason to believe he's stronger than he's been since 2k6 and after.
Mario probably crushes him even worse the last few years. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:43:49 PM | message detail |
How about the fact that MM's % on Zack puts him above 2k5 Mario levels? And his % on Cid? And Hayabusa? --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/17/2010 6:43:49 PM | message detail |
12-hour matches, obviously. In a 24-hour match, if you're anti-voted, you are what you are. That's just intrinsic strength. I still don't see how this is anti-voting. People voting in the poll don't like one character, therefore they vote for the other. They don't want one character to win, so they vote for the other. That's how the contest works in all cases. You could say that Falcon didn't win because he was anti-voted if you are using it in that sense. Nobody gets 'anti-voted'...it's a popularity contest. This whole term being thrown around is just false. That is the characters intrinsic strength at all times. If they have a bad time period then it's just an unfavorable time period. Case closed. --- The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt Yeah...it probably is. But I've got to do something, right? |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:44:23 PM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #316 Suit yourself. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:44:54 PM | message detail |
Considering I'm saying the exact same thing as creative and red sox and you single me out for being 'biased', I will! --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/17/2010 6:46:00 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #314 Uh, the crew isn't the oracle you know. --- ¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸ How does it feel when all you're counting on is scatterbrained? |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:46:14 PM | message detail |
And you're acting like we haven't seen the exact same thing happen with Mario before. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2100 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2115 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2122 Samus was at least worth 48% on 2k5 Mario, indirectly. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:46:51 PM | message detail |
How about the fact that MM's % on Zack puts him above 2k5 Mario levels? Here's one problem. And his % on Cid? What do we know about Cid? That he barely lost to Aerith in a vote-in? Well, if we assume Aerith and Cid are equals, Snake is expected to beat Mega Man with...54.90%. So I guess Mega Man could have improved a little bit from 2006. And Hayabusa? Do we really think that was a legit performance from Mega Man? --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/17/2010 6:47:10 PM | message detail |
I
meant that after 2 years of 4-ways for everyone, we simply don't know
most characters' strengths that well anymore. Relative to this field
nowadays, Zack is plenty proven and reliable. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 6:47:23 PM | message detail |
From: EternalxCourage | Posted: 3/17/2010 9:43:49 PM | #320 If you SPECIFICALLY are voting someone else other than X character because you despise them instead of actually GENUINELY liking the other options, it's anti-voting. Dunno why this seems so impossible to understand. :-/ --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
voltch | Posted 3/17/2010 6:48:05 PM | message detail |
which is a good thing, cos if we don't know their strength as well, it makes things more challenging. --- Shakes Fist! |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/17/2010 6:48:20 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #315 Hey remember how you kept telling me anti-fans are pretty annoying when I was discussing Brawl? You act the same way with Pokemon sometimes. Not agreeing with KP here or anything, because I don't think you're being difficult or whatever, but you seem to hate pogeymanz for no reason >_> --- "Watching regs bash Ulti is like watching an ant colony revolt against a lawnmower." -Lucid Faia |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/17/2010 6:49:18 PM | message detail |
I still don't see how this is anti-voting. People voting in the poll don't like one character, therefore they vote for the other. They don't want one character to win, so they vote for the other. That's how the contest works in all cases. You could say that Falcon didn't win because he was anti-voted if you are using it in that sense. Nobody gets 'anti-voted'...it's a popularity contest. This whole term being thrown around is just false. That is the characters intrinsic strength at all times. If they have a bad time period then it's just an unfavorable time period. Case closed. The idea is that people who vote based on hate are more reliable voters, and will vote no matter what. Normal voters, on the other hand, are more likely to miss a 12-hour poll because they are not on Gamefaqs during that time period on that day. --- 2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth. All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled! |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 6:49:51 PM | message detail |
Considering
the fact that people had theorized Mario would be able to SFF the hell
out of Mega Man and Sonic for years, is the notion that he blasted Mega
with a few points of SFF really so hard to accept? I think the amount of SFF can be debated, but IMO it's almost a lock that there was some non-trivial amount of it. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 6:50:49 PM | message detail |
is the notion that he blasted Mega with a few points of SFF really so hard to accept? No, I don't really have a problem with it, per se. I just don't think Mega Man was all that close to begin with, and it wasn't that much. I don't think it's entirely unreasonable that there wasn't any at all either. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:51:03 PM | message detail |
Link having his way with Sonic only makes the amount of SFF in MM/Mario seem worse, now that I think about it. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
HaRRicH | Posted 3/17/2010 6:51:16 PM | message detail |
Friendly reminder: we haven't had a one-on-one contest since 2006. Another friendly reminder: the gap between this Character Battle and the last one has been the biggest gap we ever hap between Character Battles. Yet another friendly reminder: we never had a Character Battle at this time of year. A friendly reminder on top of the other friendly reminders: this format is cutting our typical samples in half. One more friendly reminder: having seen major site-shifts in 2003 and 2005 while seeing how much changed between BGE1 and BGE2, it's possible four-ways have hidden more site-shifting. The point of these friendly reminders: things could have very easily changed and it not be that unreasonable. Let's not jump down each others' throats about stats from three and a half years ago or from four-ways when we're in a brand new format that's rather removed from how the rest of our contests have been. Be cool, guys. They're numbers. I think Charizard's not over-performing much (though surely to some degree), but it's hard to really argue it on any solid ground, and I'm not convinced the other side of the argument's ground is any more solid. Then again, I guess discussions like these belong here. Just saying, this is one that I don't think has a clear-cut side as of this time thanks to the changes in the site and contest in general, much less any normal contest factors. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 3/17/2010 6:52:14 PM | message detail |
Charizard killed the anime's budget. *runs* --- Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/17/2010 6:52:44 PM | message detail |
Mega
Man was very clearly SFFd to oblivion, and we've seen Mario pull this
trick before. Samus looked better all through that 2005 contest, then
got 60-40'd by Mario. Mega Man looked better all contest, then got...
60-40'd by Mario. It was my easiest oracle pick all contest. Not a
doubt in my mind Mega Man was getting SFFd that day. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.· Is a momentary gleam all you need? |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 6:53:05 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 3/17/2010 9:50:49 PM | #332 Uhm, Leon, is it was a couple points, that means Mario scored some pretty noticeable SFF, given that it means MM would indirectly score 46% or so on him. Maybe I'm missing something here? --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 6:54:49 PM | message detail |
46% would be more than a 4 point boost for Mega. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2010 6:55:50 PM | message detail |
I would peg Mega at 47% on Mario, which is in line with what most people would expect from a Zack Fair/Big Boss match. --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4 |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 6:57:56 PM | message detail |
From: creativename | Posted: 3/17/2010 9:54:49 PM | #338 Maybe my memory fails me, but wasn't the final result 58.30ish-41.70ish? That's four points and a half. Not unreasonable IMO. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:00:35 PM | message detail |
I think 46% would be more like a ceiling. I don't know if I'd give him that much. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:01:17 PM | message detail |
Considering how badly Link SFFed Mega and Mega SFFed Yoshi before, I think a 4-5 point underperformance is pretty logical. From: KanzarisKelshen | #1660 Yes, but you were specifically talking about 'a couple'. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:02:15 PM | message detail |
Considering how badly Link SFFed Mega and Mega SFFed Yoshi before, I think a 4-5 point underperformance is pretty logical. Considering how badly Link SFFed Yoshi before, Luigi beats Mega Man (probably, haven't run the numbers), meaning Mega Man actually rSFFed Mario. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png I'm sorry, but calling Charizard A Pokemon is calling The Fonz a Fonz. - Haguile |
HaRRicH | Posted 3/17/2010 7:02:22 PM | message detail |
I thought Mega Man would get about 46% after
SFF before their match. I'm not convincend Big Boss and Zack are far
apart, though Big Boss definitely wins that once-questionable match now. --- Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart! Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 7:03:18 PM | message detail |
From: creativename | Posted: 3/17/2010 10:01:17 PM | #342 Point. I was going off of Leon's words a bit loosely I admit, though I doubt anyone thinks four points and a half is something Mario wouldn't score. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:07:31 PM | message detail |
Before
the match I thought Mega would break 45% because he'd avoid SFF via
this contest having less of it and his franchise doing so great with
the early vote. I thought the Power Hours would having a joke/bandwagon
thing where he'd overperform a lot during that time, since the Power
Hours loved everything Mega Man so much this contest. But the Power
Hours went to Mario so badly that Mega Man actually did during during
the Europe vote! If I personally was making any adjustments, I'd set Mega Man to a conservative 44%-45%, calculate Bowser off Charizard's current performance, and then calculcate Charizard as like 51% on Bowser or something. Then base Charizard's portion of the bracket on that value. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/17/2010 7:09:04 PM | message detail |
Second Quarter Stats Mario – 50.00% Mega Man – 46.00% Charizard – 43.00% Kratos – 39.14% Bowser Koopa – 38.93% Big Boss – 36.84% Zack Fair – 35.27% Sora – 35.27% Cid Highwind – 34.00% L-Block – 33.85% Duke Nukem – 30.75% Miles “Tails” Prower – 30.55% Kefka Palazzo – 29.83% Yuna – 29.20% Frog – 28.64% Isaac – 26.75% Ike – 25.90% Midna – 25.65% Ryu Hayabusa – 25.62% Zidane Tribal – 25.10% HK-47 – 24.39% Master Chief – 24.31% Arthas Menethil – 23.53% Laharl – 22.75% Neku Sakuraba – 19.87% Crash Bandicoot – 19.58% Prinny – 19.43% Spy – 19.34% Falco Lombardi – 18.96% Claptrap – 17.89% Miles Edgeworth – 17.52% Professor Layton – 16.70% I trust there are no objections? I'd like to apologize for my attitude in the last little bit. Shouldn't have let myself get so carried away. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
creativename | Posted 3/17/2010 7:09:05 PM | message detail |
*did better during the Europe vote --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/17/2010 7:11:18 PM | message detail |
Zack seems a little high, but I don't see any objections other than that. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/17/2010 7:11:27 PM | message detail |
If
you're going to drop Charizard 3+% on Mario in adjusted stats due to
HG/SS shenanigans, why not take it off his performance against Bowser
too? If you're only going to do one, you may as well just do neither. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png I'm sorry, but calling Charizard A Pokemon is calling The Fonz a Fonz. - Haguile |
