GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 882

UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/16/2010 3:04:57 PM | message detail
Link vs Sonic in a canonical, full power fight would be amazing. Don't deny it.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Vincent, Kirby, Missingno, et al group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters recently.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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"How's this for a headline? 'French Fries' " -James French, Last Words
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/16/2010 3:06:02 PM | message detail
Sonic would win if chili dogs were at stake.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/16/2010 5:30:32 PM | message detail
One slight change to this.

Cloud stood prostrate before Link, begging for mercy after his egregious error. Not only had he threatened to challenge Link, he had mistakenly brought up the Contest-That-Shall-Not-Be-Named. Link was considering not sending him to the level of the complete fodders, when the decision was abruptly made for him.
With a flash and a huge explosion, Cloud went flying out the window of Link's fortress.
"What is this?" Link wondered.
Into the room stormed Solid Snake and Samus.
"What was the meaning of that?" Link almost screamed in fury.
"We have come to inform you of your impending demise." Snake and Samus stated in unison.
"Oh?" Link almost laughed. "Do you not remember years past? Do you really think even the two of you together can defeat me?"
"Of course not." Samus replied.
"We are here to inform you of the one who will." Snake followed.
"It'sa me, Mario." A short red Italian plumber flew into the room.
"You? You will never come near defeating me!" Link fumed.
"Have you forgotten our deal already?" Mario countered. "I promised you dominance over this area as long as you allowed me to remain in the top tier. I understood that I had to be behind your henchmen Cloud and Sephiroth. However, you delayed three years in giving me dominance over my nemesis, Crono. I let that slide because of 2005. But last year, you allowed Crono to utterly embarrass me. Sonic the Hegehog will begin to show tonight that you reign is failing, and my followers Snake and Samus will defeat your henchmen to follow. Not even your pet pokemon can stop me. I will take my place at the top of the video game world. The days of Clinkeroth are over!!"

Let the quarterfinals begin!
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 3/16/2010 5:32:05 PM | message detail
I hate bad fanfics, I hate them even more when they have spelling errors and make no sense. I hate them EVEN MORE when they are spammed in topics that they don't belong.
voltch | Posted 3/16/2010 5:34:01 PM | message detail
Well watcha gonna do about it Turtle?
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Shakes Fist!
LordOfDabu | Posted 3/16/2010 5:36:07 PM | message detail
That's why I said Link weighted. As in, Link beating Mario more than Samus, but Mario still beating Samus (this has happened, right? That's some kind of skewed cyclic behavior). It was a followup post to the (made up rps) example given above.
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Watch me play games!
http://www.livestream.com/dabu
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 5:37:39 PM | message detail

From: LordOfDabu | #006
That's why I said Link weighted. As in, Link beating Mario more than Samus, but Mario still beating Samus (this has happened, right? That's some kind of skewed cyclic behavior). It was a followup post to the (made up rps) example given above.


You're confusing transitivity with linearity.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/16/2010 5:38:11 PM | message detail
I hate bad fanfics, I hate them even more when they have spelling errors and make no sense. I hate them EVEN MORE when they are spammed in topics that they don't belong.

FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT!
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/16/2010 5:38:27 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 5:38:45 PM | message detail
Also your example is over different years anyway. That wouldn't apply since strengths change a lot year to year.
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LordOfDabu | Posted 3/16/2010 5:40:05 PM | message detail
Transitivity means that if A > B and B > C, then A > C; this is what I was arguing and what my made up counterexample was about.

Linearity means that

T(x+y) = T(x) + T(y) and T(ax) = aT(x)

I honestly have no idea what you are referring to as being linear!
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Watch me play games!
http://www.livestream.com/dabu
Pirateking2000 | Posted 3/16/2010 5:40:08 PM | message detail
Who is for Sonic beating Link and facing Mario!
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XBL GT: Demon Ninja X2
voltch | Posted 3/16/2010 5:43:42 PM | message detail
Why hasn't anyone setup Mario vs Sonic yet?
Jesus christ admins, it's like the one day where you throw stats in the river and only fish' em out once the voters have finished settling the rivalry once and for all.
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Shakes Fist!
Achromatic | Posted 3/16/2010 5:44:09 PM | message detail
Link sat on his throne, a hand on his face in boredom. Every year it was the same. People challenged him, he cut them down in one stroke, he moved on to the next opponent. Some years they put three people against him instead of just one, which mattered little. To a near God, what was three swings of a sword compared to one? The person to have ever bested him in a fair fight, Cloud, had lost his edge over the years. Now not even he could force Link from his throne as the best.

Link's disappointed musings were interrupted by a feral roar from outside his throne room. Moments later Bowser, his shell cracked and covered in his own blood, landed with a sickening thud twenty feet from Link's position. Link quirked an eyebrow at this development and gazed at the figure responsible for the dead koopa king. It was some type of lizard, its scales a bright orange color. Its tail swept back and forth behind it, being alight at the end by a sizable flame. Link made eye contact with the creature for a brief moment before the lizard's powerful wings extended themselves and flapped once. Link barely had time to register the fact that this was an aggressive movement as the creature glided towards him at almost impossible speed.

Link was not impressed, however. Before Charizard could react Link had brandished his shield and used it as a blunt weapon, slamming it into the side of Charizard's face, causing the creature to slam back first into a pillar.

"Know your place, animal." Link's face was the perfect image of royal fury, every muscle in his body tense in anticipation for a brutal battle.

"Link! This is-a not your fight!" Link spared a glance at his old friend Mario, who was wearing an ice powered suit.

"A fight is mine when I say it is mine, Mario. This creature has dared enter my sanctum, I will give it an animal's welcome."

"Link, Sonic is-a here, you must-a go to him!" Link's features did not change aside from a flicker in recognition in his eyes at the name Sonic.

"Very well, I leave this beast to you then, Mario." Mario blinked and Link was gone, as if he was never there.

...

Shrug <_<


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Winner of two Mafia Player of the Year Boardys
Sir Chris
voltch | Posted 3/16/2010 5:47:15 PM | message detail
...what has red sox unleashed?
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Shakes Fist!
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 5:47:25 PM | message detail

From: LordOfDabu | #051
Transitivity means that if A > B and B > C, then A > C; this is what I was arguing and what my made up counterexample was about.


I don't know what counterexample you're referring to, but yes that's transitivity, and it has never been violated in these contests and wouldn't be outside of the two scenarios I mentioned (super close matches, and rSFF actually flipping a result and the weaker character wins).

Linearity means scalars. Multiplication.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/16/2010 5:47:38 PM | message detail
Be honest, you did that just to tick off turtle, didn't you?
Achromatic | Posted 3/16/2010 5:47:59 PM | message detail
I did that because I write fanfiction anyway and yours did indeed suck.
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The difference between arrogance and confidence is confidence acts rather than speaks.
Sir Chris
voltch | Posted 3/16/2010 5:48:55 PM | message detail
yay! fanfic wars!
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Shakes Fist!
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 5:49:19 PM | message detail
When we say linear, we mean linear in terms of the basic definition of linear vs. geometric/exponential.

Linear - A*x
Geometric - A^x
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transients | Posted 3/16/2010 5:49:50 PM | message detail
I am far more fascinated by the math dork war than the fanfic war. I don't know what that says about me.
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xyzzy
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/16/2010 5:50:30 PM | message detail
Ouch. Very well. I concede. Mine was supposed to be a slight continuation of Red Sox's and the ones it spawned during the MissingNo. match. I was just hoping a few people would enjoy it to spark off the last three rounds.
voltch | Posted 3/16/2010 5:50:45 PM | message detail
so CS&D's just a battlefield right now?
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Shakes Fist!
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/16/2010 5:51:15 PM | message detail
Cloud stood alone atop the rock outcropping that served as the walls which contained the vicious battles this contest had become famous for. Looking out over the bloodied grounds a slight breeze shifted his gravitationally challenged hair.

"This will be the year," he whispered, "that I take everything back."

An energetic ball of blue bounced from foot to foot beside him. The battle was winding down in the arena now, and things were grim for Tifa. "Hey, pal, don't forget about me!" The bouncing stopped momentarily for Sonic to thumb back at himself. He thought a moment about the prospect of facing Link...ever optimistic. "He's mine -- I've got something more important to settle and he's in the way!" It was almost as though he was checking over his shoulders as he spoke.

"...right." Cloud, nonchalantly crossed his arms. "Just try not to get in my way."

And as Cloud would walk away to prepare for a rather routine battle, Sonic looked on at the coliseum that would soon be his to enter. "Yeah right!"
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The ultimate Snow fanboy - Curt
Yeah...it probably is. But I've got to do something, right?
Pirateking2000 | Posted 3/16/2010 5:51:53 PM | message detail
<looks at Achro's story> ....annd then the second Link entered the room where sonic is he is is attacked by an army of anti voters. Sonic is then infused with the power of all that Link has slain over the years and punches him into the sun...NEXT CHAPTER Mario vs Sonic! The **** REALLY Hits the Fan!
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XBL GT: Demon Ninja X2
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/16/2010 5:53:06 PM | message detail
so CS&D's just a battlefield right now?
Well, we're bored right now and really excited about the potential quarterfinal and onwards matches, so we're having some fun to kill the time before awesomeness begins (at least, that's what I'm doing).
And I think the only word I misspelled was 'hedgehog'. Did you see any others, Turtle?
LordOfDabu | Posted 3/16/2010 5:53:12 PM | message detail
I don't know what counterexample you're referring to...

I was referring to: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=53928316&message=593958113

And such scenarios have happened in practice, not just in textbooks! They are quite rare though.
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Watch me play games!
http://www.livestream.com/dabu
Calintares | Posted 3/16/2010 5:56:34 PM | message detail
Are there any fanfics from 2003? those would've been epic
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
voltch | Posted 3/16/2010 5:57:30 PM | message detail
pfff, that's not how you have fun in a CS&D topic, you have fun by either:

A:Bullying the bad users
B:Turning CS&D into Contest Social Discussion topics
C:Talk about a big world event ie:Important Hockey Matches
D:Turn everything into random bizarro world
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Shakes Fist!
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 6:00:19 PM | message detail

From: LordOfDabu | #107
I don't know what counterexample you're referring to...

I was referring to: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=53928316&message=593958113

And such scenarios have happened in practice, not just in textbooks! They are quite rare though.


This example is purely speculative though, such a thing wouldn't actually ever happen in these polls. It's just made up.

It's unlikely we'll ever see a true clear-cut violation of transitivity. The mechanics of these polls make it extremely improbable.

Non-linearity on the other hand happens all the time, probably to some degree in almost every match - though in most matches the degree is negligible.
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LordOfDabu | Posted 3/16/2010 6:01:23 PM | message detail
I honestly feel like linear is the wrong word for what you want to say (and is probably why it confuses so many people!), but I'm not a statistician so I don't know a better one.

Probably something fancy like "the characters behave like iid uniform random variables!"
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Watch me play games!
http://www.livestream.com/dabu
HaRRicH | Posted 3/16/2010 6:02:11 PM | message detail
I'll take "No offense but I have little interest in fan-fiction" for $500, Trebek.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 6:03:28 PM | message detail

From: Calintares | #108
Are there any fanfics from 2003? those would've been epic


The 2K3 porta dei thing was great, I recall.

http://crolapras.tripod.com/ffproj.html

There was also a 2K5 one, though I don't know if I read it.

http://joffury.tripod.com/index.html

From: LordOfDabu | #151
I honestly feel like linear is the wrong word for what you want to say (and is probably why it confuses so many people!), but I'm not a statistician so I don't know a better one.

Probably something fancy like "the characters behave like iid uniform random variables!"


That is not true. Linearity is the proper word.

The randomness word you're looking for is 'stochastic process'.
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LordOfDabu | Posted 3/16/2010 6:05:08 PM | message detail
And I would argue that it being improbable has little to do with the mechanics of the polls, but rather that people like game characters for (usually) very simplistic reasons.

It happens more often in politics since there are so many more factors for determining who you like. People might weigh their choices on spending or healthcare or whatever else, which can lead to such relationships among the candidates.
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Watch me play games!
http://www.livestream.com/dabu
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 6:09:55 PM | message detail
That's a given. These polls don't have the same mechanics as political elections.

They're more akin to sports, but with a huge sample size. For instance each vote is a basket. A typical basketball game has say 50 baskets by each time. So instead of playing one game, it's like playing a thousand - and then the winner advances in tourney fashion.

The rock paper scissors thing would be a "Styles make fights" boxing type of issue, but with the huge sample sizes, such situations are very unlikely to occur.
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LordOfDabu | Posted 3/16/2010 6:23:38 PM | message detail
Oh, I see. You're basically looking at it as a random walk with probabilities of moving up/down corresponding to the x-stat value. I think I see where your multiplication comes in, but I'll have to sit on it a bit.
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Watch me play games!
http://www.livestream.com/dabu
UItimaterializer | Posted 3/16/2010 6:30:36 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #032
I'll take "No offense but I have little interest in fan-fiction" for $500, Trebek.


Ditto. There are no good fanfics. Funny maybe, good no.

Any ideas for either of these pics?

http://img.imgcake.com/SnakevSeph2JPGah.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/SnakevSeph3JPGse.jpg
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¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸
"Do you have ANY idea how low my self-esteem is?" -DYL
nintendogirl1 | Posted 3/16/2010 6:39:56 PM | message detail
From: voltch | #029
pfff, that's not how you have fun in a CS&D topic, you have fun by either:

A:Bullying the bad users
B:Turning CS&D into Contest Social Discussion topics
C:Talk about a big world event ie:Important Hockey Matches
D:Turn everything into random bizarro world
E: Nomming delicious tears


Fix'd.
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Hohoho.
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 6:42:40 PM | message detail

From: LordOfDabu | #156
Oh, I see. You're basically looking at it as a random walk with probabilities of moving up/down corresponding to the x-stat value. I think I see where your multiplication comes in, but I'll have to sit on it a bit.


No actually. It's certainly not a random walk. Matches have trends etc. The probabilities are not independent.

Multiplication is what x-stats are.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 3/16/2010 6:48:19 PM | message detail
Eh, transitivity in the contest is rigged by it being single elimination. It simply isn't possibly for an entrant to lose and then beat an entrant that beat it, even if it would. Saying that we've never seen a C > A result in the contest is pretty meaningless when we've never seen an A vs. C match to begin with (during the same year).

I agree that transitivity will hold up most of the time as well, and that it would usually have actual reasons for breaking. If those matches actually happened, I could certainly see it occurring from time to time though.
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UItimaterializer | Posted 3/16/2010 6:48:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb2k6/cb568-6.jpg

Anyone know what font that is?
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People with one foot in the coffin shouldn't jump around.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/16/2010 6:50:29 PM | message detail
There are no good fanfics. Funny maybe, good no.

:(
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
creativename | Posted 3/16/2010 6:55:23 PM | message detail
I do remember the 2k3 fanfic project being very good and an enjoyable read. That was a while ago but I recall being impressed by it. I usually have contempt for fanfiction.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/16/2010 6:58:09 PM | message detail
I said my last post with no disdain or hate towards fan-fiction, it's just not my thing.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
paraboxx | Posted 3/16/2010 6:59:21 PM | message detail
When did this become CF&D?

...do I even want to know what I missed?
paraboxx | Posted 3/16/2010 7:04:22 PM | message detail
On the other hand:

There are no good fanfics. Funny maybe, good no.

ulti you are even deader to me than you were already dead before
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/16/2010 7:06:35 PM | message detail
Anyone think it's possible that we could see a good Sonic performance tonight due to Link anti-voting?
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/16/2010 7:07:26 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #043
I do remember the 2k3 fanfic project being very good and an enjoyable read. That was a while ago but I recall being impressed by it. I usually have contempt for fanfiction.


I read that thing in full, didn't change my mind. It's just not something I particularly like is all.
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transients | Posted 3/16/2010 7:08:12 PM | message detail
I'm feeling the exact opposite, actually.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/16/2010 7:09:04 PM | message detail
You think Link is going to crush Sonic harder than usual? Any particular reason?
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.