GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 880

charmander6000 | Posted 3/15/2010 7:57:24 PM | message detail
Match CXIX: (1) Solid Snake vs. (2) Squall Leonhart

Last Round

Solid Snake – 55.20%
Pikachu – 44.80%

Auron – 48.19%
Squall Leonhart – 51.81%

Analysis

The only 2 seed to make it out of round 2 has made it to round 4, but this is the end of the line for Squall. With Snake/Squall quickly becoming the new Snake/Knuckles like with previous years I don’t see a reason to expect the match to go any differently than before other than a couple of percent change. Now had this been the sprite round we could have had an interesting match on our hands.

Since the last time they met Snake has received Brawl and Metal Gear Solid 4 and as seen by his performance in 2008 those games did help him in terms of strength so one would expect Snake to perform better against Squall. On the other hand Snake hasn’t looked that great in this contest suggesting a slight deflation from his high in 2008. You could blame it on anti-blowout GameFAQs, but if that’s the case then Snake shouldn’t exactly blow Squall out either.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Snake has returned to around his 2006 level and that the match will be a repeat of their encounter in that year. It’s hard to tell where Squall currently ranks, but given his non-Terra match he seems to be around where he was in previous years. Expect a decent performance by Squall that will likely make people more comfortable with Sephiroth over Snake.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake > Squall Leonhart

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake wins, 57.83% - 42.17%

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Character Battle VIII - 181/224 - Today's Winners: Samus and Cloud
red sox 777 | Posted 3/15/2010 7:58:24 PM | message detail
Squall looked alright against Auron, but I think I would take Vincent over him now, whereas I would have done the opposite before the contest. The Terra match was bad no matter how you slice it (well, maybe not, depending on how high you're willing to put HG/SS boosted Charizard).
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 7:59:19 PM | message detail
We don't even know what the Terra match was worth, and we've seen a lot of top tier guys have bad matches against characters we used to think were pretty weak (like Cloud against Ridley), so I dunno.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/15/2010 8:03:02 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #176
Yeah, and so is Metroid Composite


mc is a girl. I can guarantee this.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 8:04:47 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #204
mc is a girl. I can guarantee this.


Jesus H. Christ, why was this such a big ****ing deal
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EternalxCourage | Posted 3/15/2010 8:05:04 PM | message detail
Ok hold on. How in the world has Cloud looked weaker this year? Aside from the 12 hour format inflating fodder level characters, he's pushing 66% on RYU. The same Ryu that just beat Dante, and was worth 32% on Base Link in 2006. The same Ryu that just got SF4, TVC and will soon have SSF4. Link wouldn't even do this well against Ryu.

If anything FFXIII has given Cloud enough of a boost to be stronger than Link. Squall is going to impress against Snake. And Snake wasn't stronger in the 4 ways than he was in 06, it was just a format that worked to his benefit. Nothing more nothing less. He's proven that he is weaker this year already.

Also comparing Pikachu to Charizard is just foolish. Pikachu would NEVER beat Bowser -- let alone by 5%.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/15/2010 8:09:41 PM | message detail
32% on BL you say? So based on that, Cloud gets roughly 47% on BL- the Link that he beat with 51% once- now. That means he gets roughly 44% on Link 2004, who may as well be equal to Link 2008. Add on 1% since he'd do better against Ryu in a 24-hour match if you like. That's 45% on Link 2008, and it'd be the worst he's ever done against Link, including his match on the day Twilight Princess and the Wii were released. Of course, Link has looked a step weaker too this year.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/15/2010 8:09:51 PM | message detail
Keep in mind that Dante was worth 36% on base Link in 2006. Now I know 'lol 2006' but if they've dropped there's just as much reason for Link to drop. Also Ryu is more relevant right now than he has ever been in these contests. So if anything he's gotten stronger or at least stayed constant.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:11:01 PM | message detail
Keep in mind that Dante was worth 36% on base Link in 2006.

No, he wasn't. He's 39.73% on Samus that year.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/15/2010 8:11:12 PM | message detail
Dante was NOT worth 36% on Link in 2006. Dante was extrapolated through Yoshi, who lost to Snake in the sprite round.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/15/2010 8:11:15 PM | message detail
Right -- Link has looked weaker, but Ryu has looked stronger than ever. So I would take Dante's 36% on BL to be more accurate. I think it's probably more of a middle ground, but at 34% that still makes Cloud look stronger than Link in 2006, and Link this year has definitely looked weaker than Link of 2006.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/15/2010 8:11:54 PM | message detail
Ok hold on. How in the world has Cloud looked weaker this year? Aside from the 12 hour format inflating fodder level characters, he's pushing 66% on RYU. The same Ryu that just beat Dante, and was worth 32% on Base Link in 2006. The same Ryu that just got SF4, TVC and will soon have SSF4. Link wouldn't even do this well against Ryu.

If anything FFXIII has given Cloud enough of a boost to be stronger than Link.


Or maybe Ryu weakened during the contest.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/15/2010 8:13:50 PM | message detail
No, he wasn't. He's 39.73% on Samus that year.

So he was worth more like 34% on Base Link even after Yoshi overperformed on Snake in the sprite round? Well then......all the worse.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/15/2010 8:14:36 PM | message detail
Oh wtf. Man I was reading those wrong. There goes my arguments for Cloud. :( Didn't realize that the X-stats had Link at 56. Why the hell would they do that? Lol.

Oh well.

I can still hope for Cloud. This is still an impressive performance to me in 12 hours and based on how the night vote is going it would be probably 2 or 3% higher if given 24 hours. I still say that Cloud has a good shot at Link.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/15/2010 8:16:11 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's kind of confusing. Base Link is Link 2003, but Link has been quite a bit stronger ever since 2004. I generally assume Link was constant from 2004 through 2008.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
LOLContests | Posted 3/15/2010 8:17:03 PM | message detail
I don't believe any of this whole "anti-blowout" theory. The reason we haven't seen as many blowouts is because:

A) Clinkeroth is getting anti-voted, and thus removing the most powerful group of characters from the equation. And besides Thrall, none of them have faced fodder characters anyway, and would not have broken 80% even if they weren't being anti-voted.

B) Due to vote-ins, the lower seeds have been much stronger than normal. While there is fodder in this bracket, it is just by chance not going up against the big guys. There's only been 1 80%+ match, but other than that how many matches were even expected to break that number and didn't? Link Vs. Thrall, and Vincent Vs. Guybrush, but that's it.
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Yesmar
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:17:46 PM | message detail
There's only been 1 80%+ match, but other than that how many matches were even expected to break that number and didn't? Link Vs. Thrall, and Vincent Vs. Guybrush, but that's it.

Cloud/Ridley was.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 8:17:59 PM | message detail
Good god, Ryu is holding on for dear life to that 34%.

What's better, 32% on Link or 34% on Cloud?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:18:24 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #218
Good god, Ryu is holding on for dear life to that 34%.

What's better, 32% on Link or 34% on Cloud?


I'd call it a push.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 8:19:58 PM | message detail
We have to settle the Ryu/MMX/Dante debate, since appearently they are the three strongest non-n9, non-Nintendo/Square characters in this contest.
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LOLContests | Posted 3/15/2010 8:20:12 PM | message detail
So he was worth more like 34% on Base Link even after Yoshi overperformed on Snake in the sprite round? Well then......all the worse.

I would adjust Yoshi more than 2% on BL due to the Sprite Round. The X-Stats from 2006 are borked anyway, since its based off of a ridiculous Samus ranking of 46 on BL.
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*bark*--Amaterasu
Yesmar
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:20:33 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #220
We have to settle the Ryu/MMX/Dante debate, since appearently they are the three strongest non-n9, non-Nintendo/Square characters in this contest.


Don't leave Zero out of that equation, son!
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 8:22:55 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #222
Don't leave Zero out of that equation, son!


Yeah, he's pretty close too. Hmm...Zero > Sub-Zero?
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This is good...isn't it? - Big motha****ing Boss
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:24:07 PM | message detail
Indubitably! It's only natural for Zero to be higher than Sub-Zero, ho ho ho.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 8:27:53 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #224
Indubitably! It's only natural for Zero to be higher than Sub-Zero, ho ho ho.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU1I-dURJvM#t=49s
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Good luck Freeman! Be Adequate!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:35:51 PM | message detail
So who wins the board vote? Snake's board vote certainly ain't what it used to be, but Squall's has never been that good either.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 3/15/2010 8:37:26 PM | message detail
we're all just going to refrain from voting because none of the contestants are Pokemon
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/15/2010 8:39:25 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #225
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU1I-dURJvM#t=49s


XFD

At any rate, I think it's safe to say that Squall will be beating his 2006 result. Snake has looked weaker this year, and at best is at his 2006 level. At worst, he's at Mega Man's level.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:40:59 PM | message detail
I think it's possible that, in 2006, Snake may have been benefiting from bracket voting and seeding. I've speculated for a while that it was a big reason Sora got 45%+ on Mega Man, especially after his mega-bomb against Bowser, same with Dante against Vincent in 2005, and it may have been why Falcon looked so bad against Crono in 2006.

Not that I'm trying to make excuses, but I think Squall can outdo his 2006 number easily if that were true.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:42:10 PM | message detail
And Cloud finally hits 66%.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 8:44:26 PM | message detail
Well at least Ryu avoided the doubling. I'll take what I can get >_>
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This is good...isn't it? - Big motha****ing Boss
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/15/2010 8:49:49 PM | message detail
Come on Ryu, pull Cloud under 66% here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 8:56:00 PM | message detail
Oh hey, did you guys notice that Bacon posted the first competition on the "GameFAQs Competitions" board?

A gaming limerick competition, if any of you guys are so inclined.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 8:56:56 PM | message detail
65.99% for Cloud, you can do it Ryu
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Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v
Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/15/2010 8:57:36 PM | message detail
Oh hey, did you guys notice that Bacon posted the first competition on the "GameFAQs Competitions" board?

Yes, I know about it. I'm not participating in it, because poetry just isn't my thing.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Master Moltar | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:13 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 76.47%

13
Squall Leonhart 23.53%

4
TOTAL VOTES 17
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Moltar Status: Prediction: Snake > Squall (194/240)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:17 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Solid Snake 75%

6
Squall Leonhart 25%

2
TOTAL VOTES 8

Oh brother.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
paulg235 | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:19 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 70.59%

24
Squall Leonhart 29.41%

10
TOTAL VOTES 34

Ouch
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 77.78% 7
Squall Leonhart 22.22% 2
TOTAL VOTES 9

Snake > Link
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 197/240 - Today's Winners: Solid Snake and Sephiroth
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:30 PM | message detail
snakes gunnin' for ya, Seph.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:35 PM | message detail
Yep, Snake wins the board vote.

Gross.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:38 PM | message detail
all aboard the Snake > Seph train

choo choo
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Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 13th
Today's prediction: Cloud - 63.63% Status: meh
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:53 PM | message detail
Oh god a not completely pathetic Snake super early vote

thanks guys

You made my night :3
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Gaddswell | Posted 3/15/2010 9:00:55 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 64.12% 109
Squall Leonhart 35.88% 61
TOTAL VOTES 170

Pika looks so good right now.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/15/2010 9:01:14 PM | message detail
"This is Snake. I'm done here"
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Good luck Freeman! Be Adequate!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/15/2010 9:01:21 PM | message detail
If Snake breaks 60%, he had better beat Sephiroth! That's all I'm gonna say!
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/15/2010 9:01:39 PM | message detail
Leon what is wrong with you we want Snake to do as well as possible

this means nothing for Squall and everything for him

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
Master Moltar | Posted 3/15/2010 9:01:46 PM | message detail
get ready Seph

Snake coming
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Moltar Status: Prediction: Snake > Squall (194/240)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/15/2010 9:01:49 PM | message detail
by him I mean Snake

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
RockMFR 5 | Posted 3/15/2010 9:01:53 PM | message detail
booooring
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0