GameFAQs Contests

Nah, Cloud has disappointed, but he hasn't looked weaker than Samus. Captain Falcon or Jecht? Riku or Phoenix Wright? I know I'd have gone with the first 2 without a moment's thought.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Ryu: "So much for your FF7 total domination zone period, i am going to show you my famed California ASV and SHORYUKEN."

Cloud: "Well, I guess I will just have to let you break 40% on me to maintain your legacy. ^.^ "
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Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times"

Ugh this is so ridiculous. It's so funny how people laugh other people out of the toipc for suggesting things like Zack > Mega Man and Ezio > Zelda, and yet when upsets that are even less likely (Mega Man > Mario, Samus > Cloud, Snake > Sephiroth) come up people are actually entertaining the idea. It's just stupid.

Samus has looked better than Cloud this contest because Cloud has had less time to make up for anti-votes. Also, Mega Man looked a whole lot better than Mario and he got pasted. Samus is going to get pasted, too.

Samus has a 0% chance of beating Cloud.

Also if Cloud does post 65% on Ryu like you predict...that would be far more impressive than 63% on a SFFed Zelda.

Ryu: Hey Cloud, can I get 43% on you to preserve my legacy??

Cloud: ...no.
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Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.

Charmander you gave really high percentages.As you know so many people hate FF VII because it is cool I guess and we have Ryu on the other hand who is always strong.59%-41% sounds more logical.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

I'm surprised at all the low predictions for Cloud today. Crono got 57% on Ryu last year, and Cloud should be able to 60-40 Crono at least.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

On the other hand, if Ryu somehow does get 43%......that'll be 2 matches in a row showing Crono > Cloud you will never hear the end of this no you won't.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

lol 4 ways

Ryu is the strongest this year he has probably ever been. He had his most major releases within this year, and the hype of SSF4 coming out too. I wouldn't be surprised if Ryu broke 40% at all.
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Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.

But even if Ryu got 45%, Cloud would still win against samus.
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Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.

I guess that makes sense.But if Ruy scores 45% on Cloud,what that says for Dante?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Samus got almost 80% on Prince of Persia.

Prince of Persia or Ridley? Hell, Cloud himself was projected to as well as Samus on Prince in his better years. And given that Captain Falcon is a one on one unknown, I would not be surprised if Jecht and Phoenix could beat him. Also, how much by would you take Jill to beat Ridley?

It's worth noting that Samus probably didn't SFF Zelda as well.

I'm not really expecting Samus to win but it's undeniable who's looked better. Now Mario>Cloud, there's a sure-fire pick.

I would take Chris over Jill and Ridley over Prince any day. Cloud hasn't looked bad. He will and would trash both Samus and Mario.
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Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.

Curt, if Cloud has less time to make up for anti-votes in 12 hours, he's still going to have that same problem with Samus, since their match is a quarterfinal twelve-hour night match. If Samus can benefit from those anti-votes enough to get a big enough lead, she might be able to weather Cloud's comeback. Of course, it'd have to be a big lead, since we all know what FF7 can do after seeing Seph's huge vote swing against Missingno.

I honestly think Samus > Cloud is more likely than Snake > Seph at this point, odd a point as that seems. At least unless Missingno really is constant and Seph wouldn't break 53% on Crono, in which case the semi-finals will be a Samus/Snake rematch rather than a Cloud/Sephiroth one!
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Not Wylvane

Cloud has looked bad, but bad for Cloud is still above Samus.

As for those upsets, Curt, I'll order them from what I think was most likely at its peak to least likely.

Snake/Sephiroth > Megaman/Mario > Ezio/Zelda > Zack/Megaman = Samus/Cloud

The last two I think are and always were close to probability 0. Not exactly 0, but pretty close.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Looks like DST busted the updater. Confusing that it busted the Samus/Zelda match, and not the Bowser/Charizard match.

On Cloud/Samus, Samus has some outside shot because it's a night match, which probably works to her benefit (it certainly doesn't work to Cloud's, despite common misconception, as I've stated endlessly). With the exaggerated importance of the Power Hours, Samus' great Power Hours, and Cloud's worse-than-anyone's Power Hours, Samus could lead for a while. She might even build up a sizeable lead.

However she probably gets killed by the daylight, since the Power Hours will overstate what her natural strength vs. Cloud is. Morning vote might Omnislash her.
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I'd also like to say that this year Riku was a total choker. I would not be surprised if Phoenix and Jecht could beat him. And I agree, Samus>Cloud is more likely than Snake>Seph. That last one has had no basis since round 1.

This next match is the decider for Cloud. If he can't match Samus here, it's over. He probably will, but I sure hope he doesn't.

Wait you honestly think that Megaman>Mario, Ezio>Zelda and Zack>Megaman were more likely than samus>Cloud?

Now that's just silly.

Ezio >Zelda more debatable than Snake vs Sephiroth?
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Shakes Fist!

Yes. Megaman > Mario looked like a close match from the first 3 rounds, but it turns out that Mario won the SFF battle big- that wasn't certain to happen. Ezio > Zelda involved a newcomer and was therefore inherently unpredictable. I said Zack > Megaman was approximately equally likely to Samus > Cloud, that is, both were almost impossible.

I feel like Snake's chances have dropped since the start of the contest.....he needed to impress to show he's got a chance, and he and Seph have both been giving us mediocre performances. There's still a reasonable chance there though (maybe 20%).
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

From: Not_Wylvane | #1802
I honestly think Samus > Cloud is more likely than Snake > Seph at this point, odd a point as that seems. At least unless Missingno really is constant and Seph wouldn't break 53% on Crono, in which case the semi-finals will be a Samus/Snake rematch rather than a Cloud/Sephiroth one!

A 12 hour match is certainly what gives Samus a chance, especially a night one. Anti-votes that would usually be made irrelevant count more, since a night match only has about 40% of the vote totals of a 24 hour match. So those votes more than double in importance. Same as 4-ways.

I don't see Snake>Sephiroth because it's a day match. Snake won't get the great first hour, which in turn makes it hurt to bandwagon or sustain momentum. And the anti-votes are more diluted with the higher vote totals. Day match wrecks Snake's chances I think. Night matches are bad for the two FF7 leads, they undervalue them noticeably. Snake's going to have to be very close to Sephiroth in natural strength to stand a chance.
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Snake will probably impress against Squall.

Poor Squall - he likely ends up below Pikachu in the stats.

He might not even be able to match Pikachu in a Solid **** match, since Sprite Pikachu looks like stronger as well - I've always said that's what caused his domination in the, what was it, Dante/Leon match? Gameboy sprite may have been the best sprite pic ever.
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Well, if Snake's going to challenge Sephiroth, I think he wants to hit 60% against Squall here. Below 58% and his chances are very dim.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Poor Squall - he likely ends up below Pikachu in the stats.

No chance! Squall's getting 47% minimum!
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Squallid Snake, the only reason why tag-teams sgould ever be considered, but since that team is more awesome than anything people wll ever come up with, it's all a moot point.
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Shakes Fist!

I miss my Squallid Snake alt.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

It was created!?!?!?
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Shakes Fist!

Samus > Cloud has been an impossibility since Sephiroth beat Missingno like he did. What creativename says about the night match disadvantaging him is true in regards to the power hour and antivoting but Sephiroth weathered it all just fine against Missingno, who has far more bandwagon/antivote potential than Samus.

...looks like Samus also dropped a little percentage against Zelda overnight too. When you lose the night vote to a Zelda character, you know you've got no chance against the master of the night himself. Samus will take the early lead, maybe hold it as long as Missingno, but after that she's in for a world of hurt.

I wouldn't mind tag teams. My biggest worry would be that Crono would get paired with Tanner or something, but then he's already lost in round 1 this year, after making the finals last year, so I suppose I can tolerate the win some, lose some, philosophy of bracket placement. I'd be very interested in whether something like a Crono/Samus team could win the contest. This year I feel that Clinkeroth is no longer as dominant as once it was, and the "hierarchies" are no longer so rigid with lesser characters able to escape SFF from Link himself. The voters are smart, and probably aren't going to see Link, ignore the other characters in the poll, and vote.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

We could have 4 ways, but with only the top performer in the four way advancing (replace 4 with 3 if you want).

Granted that runs into all sorts of LFF issues.

Megaman was never going to be a match for Mario. He was up against two unknowns and Ryu H. The first two results made sense and had Megaman look how he should. Ryu H. was an anomaly but fits with what happened in 2008-Ryu H. is a big casual vote getter but collapses against strong opponents. With SFF accounted for it was never in question.

Cloud doesn't have that luxury. He and Samus have much more dependable opponents than Mario and Megaman did and no SFF.

Midgar Division: Round 4 - Match 118 – (1) Cloud Strife vs. (7) Ryu

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud
Round 1 - 71.72% vs. Ridley
Round 2 - 71.99% vs. Chris
Round 3 - 69.93% vs. Falcon

At least Falcon broke 30%!

Ryu
Round 1 - 68.97% vs. Balthier
Round 2 - 50.35% vs. Dante
Round 3 - 56.88% vs. Leon

At least it wasn’t Dante beating Ryu again.

Ryu’s gotten 40% on Samus, Snake, Sonic, Bowser and Mega Man in 1v1. Ryu also got 29% on Cloud in a four-way match. Where is he going to end up this time?

Somewhere in the middle I’m guessing. This is a day match, which helps Ryu more I think. Ryu has been looking good in America, while Cloud looks worse. Plus, FF stuff is getting anti-voted left and right. If Falcon can break 30% on Cloud, Ryu should have no problem out-doing it. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ryu ends up looking way stronger than he should here.

Cloud’s going to win, but this match has a deceptively large range. Ryu could go and break 40%, or Cloud could just crush him. I’ll go with something in the middle.

Moltar’s Bracket: Cloud > Dante

Moltar’s Prediction: Cloud: 64% - Ryu: 36%



Lopen’s Analysis

Ryu looks good here probably. Then again I thought the same of Captain Falcon.

Anyway Ryu's main goal here is to keep his over 40% streak going. Can he do it? Well he avoids the terrible morning vote and Cloud's performances this contest have been... strange, so I'm gonna take a big gamble and go with yes. C'mon Ryu!

Lopen's prediction:
Cloud with 59.79%



Transience’s Analysis

After a string of interesting matches, we get Cloud vs. Ryu. These two faced off in fourways in 2007 -- Ryu got 29% on Cloud in a match where Auron was in the poll and then 21% with Mega Man and Samus. Ryu will do much better this time around, but Cloud's still going to win this pretty big. I imagine that a decent opponent will make Cloud look a good amount better as opposed to watching him try to blow out fodder line guys like Falcon or Ridley. This is Cloud's first day match of the year, so we can see what kind of day vote we're looking at for him.

if Cloud bombs here, get ready for some Samus hype!

transience's prediction: Cloud with 61.07%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Quickie w/ Ng: Samus looking great once again- which unfortunately means Cloud's about to hit the steroids to stay ahead of her for the third straight round. After the way he tore up Falcon past the first couple hours, just holding him around the 65 range should be a moral victory for Ryu.

Ngamer Says: Cloud > Ryu, 65.56%

Kleenex’s Analysis

A lot of people are down on Cloud this contest. That awful early vote is still in full force - and that's something that I can't really deny. The thing is, I think his ending percentages (save for perhaps the Ridley match) are just about on target for where he should be. And while this isn't necessarily the strength needed to beat Link, gotta dismiss any of this Samus > Cloud nonsense.

Oh hey, there's also a Ryu in the poll. Ryu's done well this contest. And he always bows out respectably. He doesn't have to deal with Cloud's ridiculous dead-hours vote, and he's got the CALIFORNIA ASV to help things out even more. Ryu'll end safely over 40% here.

Unless FFXIII BOOST has just been delayed a week the WATCH OUT.

Bracket: Cloud
Favorites: Cloud
Prediction: Cloud with 57.57%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Ryu's had a very nice contest run, but it ends here. No more weak opponents to underperform against for Cloud. It's about time to seize advantage of Link looking bad and try to get us excited for the final, Cloud. Let's see.....Ryu's worth about 42% on Crono, and Crono's probably worth around 38% on Cloud. That gives Ryu 32%, and the day match favors Cloud while the 12-hour format (as opposed to a 24-hour match) favors Ryu. 68% seems awfully like an awfully steep target for Cloud, but it's doable.

Prediction: Cloud with 67.70%
Upset Potential: 0%
Upper Bound: Cloud with 71%
Lower Bound: Cloud with 64%



Crew Consensus: Cloud crushes the fighting spirit of Ryu

The gap between Cloud and Samus has always been further apart than between Mario and Megaman. We've actually seen Cloud/Samus twice, with the same results both times: Cloud winning with 59%. I think quite highly of Samus, and probably give her the most respect of anyone here after EC, Moltar, and the Samus > Sephiroth crew, and Samus will probably make it closer this year, but she's not winning.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Yeah, that's part of the reason I said it was like Mario/Mega Man. Cloud's always been a decent bit stronger than Samus, but people want to look at Samus's strong performances and say she has a shot at winning now, like they did with Mega Man. She's going to have a hard time closing that gap with just anti-votes, I think.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

From: Denzokuken | #1856
...looks like Samus also dropped a little percentage against Zelda overnight too. When you lose the night vote to a Zelda character, you know you've got no chance against the master of the night himself. Samus will take the early lead, maybe hold it as long as Missingno, but after that she's in for a world of hurt.

Actually just to nitpick I'd say Cloud's probably not even in the top 3 in terms of night from within his own game, I'd say Tifa/Vincent>Sephiroth>Cloud. But if you're talking raw night vote power, since Cloud may be the only guy to be able to outright beat Link over that time period, then you could call him the master of the night match.

The importance of the overnight though is more momentum than actual vote differences - the vote totals are so low that it's not that important a period in terms of that. But it represents a big momentum shift from the early vote, where Cloud will suck. The morning vote will be much of the same as the night vote, just lessened in degree slightly %-wise.

Samus is probably about the same distance in strength from Cloud as Missingno is from Sephiroth, so it should go similarly. Even if Samus has a few hundred vote lead going into the morning vote, the daylight will be her kryptonite. Cloud should easily be able to rack up a net of a couple thousand votes with the morning vote+DSV even in worst case.
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Cloud gets 68%+ and I'm calling it an absolute certainty that the DMC2 pic lost Dante that match. I think a lot less of Ryu than most... but that's steep.
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And when Ryu gets 40%, then what, hmm?
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

I think I overdid it with that Crew pick. 66% is probably more like it. But if he gets 68%, we can start up the Cloud > Link talk, which should be even more fun than this Samus > Cloud talk.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Ryu gets 40%+ and I'm on the Samus > Cloud train 100%. And I detest Samus!
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Man it's kind of sad how we're all desperate for Clinkeroth to be broken in a 1 v 1 setting but no one ever considers, even for a second, the chance of Link ever losing ever again.

...save.US.Zard?

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I hope those 40% picks were just jokes, because obviously if Ryu gets 40% in a day match then Samus would pulverize Cloud.
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TheKoolAidShoto's Analysis

Cloud, our resident Zack Fair wannabe turned sulky emo, hasn't been the most impressive character this year. After Ridley got 30%+ on him, stats regulars have been calling for his pretty little head, and some even think an upset by the impressive Samus could happen(sounds like MM > Mario talk to me, but whatever). Today will be his toughest challenge yet, and in his first day match as well.

Ryu, awesome martial artist and the face of fighting games he is, has finally got back into the sweet 16. Oh happy day! Despite most counting him out against Dante, he pulled out a close win and Shinshoryuken'd his way into the Divsional finals. Ryu has a streak of never going below 40% against a NN in 1v1, and with the help of the California ASV, he's going keep it going. HADOUKEN!

Cloud - 59.99% Ryu - 40.01%

I was the guest today >_>
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OH YEAH!

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a135/Kracko/MarioVersusCharizardMatchPic.png
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082

Looks like DST busted the updater. Confusing that it busted the Samus/Zelda match, and not the Bowser/Charizard match.

Once TRE posts the missing updates (though he's missing like the first 30 minutes), then we can almost complete the updates listed on the Samus/Zelda match on your updater. I have all of the updates from before TRE started tracking updates himself, so I can provide those to you later on.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

I wonder how Cloud's first hour will go. I've often wondered if Cloud/Seph's terrible first hour is because of a lack of Europe voting, or just plain antivoting on the part of those who vote early. Sephiroth was losing in the USA against Missingno and ended up winning by morning right? That suggests the latter, and makes me far less worried for Cloud/Samus (the DST shift in America means matches now begin at 4am GMT!)

It's anti-votes. The early vote loathes FF7 males (Cloud/Sephiroth/Vincent).
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Yeah, that's hopefully the case. Whether the same thing will happen in a different start time could be interesting though (wish matches always started this time, then Cloud might actually have a chance to go even with Link for a few minutes). Guess we'll get to know over the next few hours...

and the day match favors Cloud while the 12-hour format (as opposed to a 24-hour match) favors Ryu.

That's actually a great point. Very counter-intuitive - thinking about this confused me at first. Since Cloud's day % would be higher than his night %, how would adding that night portion increase his %?

But it's true - because the day % we're dealing with has anti-votes, and the hypothetical extra 12 hour night portion you're adding for a 24 hour match would not. Thus it would be a higher % than his day % most likely; certainly much higher than his night match % would be. So yes, 24 hour Cloud>12 hour day Cloud>12 hour night Cloud.
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Cloud Strife 40%

4
Ryu 60%

6
TOTAL VOTES 10
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Moltar Status: Prediction: Cloud > Ryu (186/232)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Cloud Strife 50%

3
Ryu 50%

3
TOTAL VOTES 6
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The Gamer In Me
"paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane

Cloud Strife 33.33%

5
Ryu 66.67%

10
TOTAL VOTES 15
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082