GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 879

UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2010 11:03:07 AM | message detail
SHAPED LIKE A DRAGON TO BE AWESOME.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Vincent, Kirby, Missingno, et al group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters recently.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
This was a triumph.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/14/2010 11:07:25 AM | message detail
Man, that was so cheesy! I can't believe anyone liked that!
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
Dr_Football | Posted 3/14/2010 11:08:43 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lhf9U5Wf3Q
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http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png
http://img.imgcake.com/drfootballpngru.png
The Real Truth | Posted 3/14/2010 11:10:36 AM | message detail
Hey look a pick I actually got right.
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
red sox 777 | Posted 3/14/2010 2:03:08 PM | message detail
Shaped like a fire breathing dragon to trap Mario in a pokeball!
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
zenk123 | Posted 3/14/2010 2:04:23 PM | message detail
I can't believe Charizard is winning. That's one awesome thing that happened this round.

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So, what does happen when Pinocchio claims "my nose will now grow"?
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/14/2010 2:05:01 PM | message detail
^Mega Man also nearly got 60-40ed. That was awesome.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/14/2010 3:35:49 PM | message detail
Sorry to repost, but I posted my first wall-o'-text in awhile at the very end of the last topic and didn't want to see it disappear from sight. Humor me please.




Before the Megaman match, I thought Charizard might be able to do pretty well against Mario, but now, I get the feeling he's going to get stomped with SFF. Still think there's a chance he resists SFF completely though.

I don't know how warranted this fear is, considering how little SFF we've seen all contest. The biggest case of traditional SFF we've seen is probably Mario > Falco, but since Falco did .28% better on Mario in a night-match than Fox in a full match against him, that says a lot. It doesn't help Mario than he didn't/barely SFF'd Ike, too. Mega Man looks to be SFF'd pretty notably, but that's hardly traditional SFF...and besides that, we already saw MMX stand up to Link so I wonder how much Mario really could have SFF'd Mega Man. Vincent hold up very well against Sephiroth (and probably Tifa in two days, too), Luigi perform 10.61% better than Yoshi on Link...those are other big examples.

The standard of SFF'ing in this contest aside, Pokemon's never proven to be easily SFF'd since Fox killed Pikachu in 2003. The series contest had Pokemon surprise us when it stood up to Metroid. In 2006, Nidoran F statistically beats over a quarter of the rest of the Female Bracket despite facing Samus. In 2007, Luigi got ~55% on Pikachu after it killed Isaac in the first round, plus Mewtwo got pretty close to Bowser-with-Toad. In 2008, Pikachu beat Ike comfortably enough, beat Alucard despite CF, and got ~42% on Crono despite Samus...plus Mewtwo killed Ness and won a tough battle with Midna before his LFF-upset over Squall/Sora to reach R4...

...and yeah, Lucario sucked by barely beating Isaac and losing hard to Marth, but he was more of a SSBB-character and DP's one of the least popular Pokemon-generations as I understand it...

...in 2009, BGE2 showed us RBY was a contender for the #3 game here; it embarrassed LoZ:MM, beat its sequel despite being in black and white (that's such a weird thing to me), did better against LoZ:OoT than most non-Nintendo games can dream of, and in one of those matches it easily outdid SSBM. GS didn't stand a chance against RBY, but its fanbase seems to think it did respectably so I'll trust them since GS still got surprisingly close to MGS the round before; besides that, it didn't lose to LoZ:MM by very much despite RBY. DP was rather unimpressive since it lost to SMG and we know how strong SMG is here now, but it'd be hard to argue DP was SFF'd...

...and then there's this year. Ganon probably didn't SFF Mewtwo, Missingno beat Yoshi, and Charizard's inching toward 55% on Bowser as we speak. Mario didn't even SFF Bowser all that bad in 2004, so take a stronger character from a different series with a new big release and an apparent protective shield from Nintendo-SFF during a year when SFF has been pretty minimal.


Charizard will look fine. He may be SFF'd to some degree, but there's no way Mario's buttstomping him with it and I almost want to bet what Charizard gets on him will be pretty accurate; it's a day-match which could off-set a little SFF anyway.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
zenk123 | Posted 3/14/2010 3:39:10 PM | message detail
^Mega Man also nearly got 60-40ed. That was awesome.

Except I wanted Mega Man to perform well. Besides, Mario beating him down wasn't unexpected.

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So, what does happen when Pinocchio claims "my nose will now grow"?
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/14/2010 3:39:44 PM | message detail
Sorry to repost, but I think everybody can appreciate DAT ASS

http://www.analoghype.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/bayonetta_butt.jpg
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OH YEAH!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/14/2010 3:42:23 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
HaRRicH | Posted 3/14/2010 3:42:26 PM | message detail
Oh, and Bidoof/Mudkip should be mentioned in my wall too; jokes or not, they held up fine in the likes of Link, Mario, Zelda, Luigi, Ganondorf, and Tom Nook.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/14/2010 3:44:39 PM | message detail
So Zard is essentially the 4th strongest Ninty character now, huh? Even Charizards biggest supporters I'm sure woulda had a tough time seeing him this strong.
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http://i44.tinypic.com/166hz0l.gif
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
XxSoulxX | Posted 3/14/2010 3:47:35 PM | message detail
I did not expect Charizard to be this strong. I always thought he would be equal to Pikachu, but he's far surpassed that.
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
HaRRicH | Posted 3/14/2010 3:50:19 PM | message detail
I thought 'Zard would be between Mewtwo and Pikachu.

Now watch him not make it into next year's contest somehow.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 3/14/2010 3:52:35 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/14/2010 6:50:19 PM | #015
I thought 'Zard would be between Mewtwo and Pikachu.

Now watch him not make it into next year's contest somehow.


If he doesn't make it, we'll have a new term to throw around: "Tifa Syndrome".
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Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/14/2010 4:02:11 PM | message detail
For kicks, here's a pretty exclusive list: characters who escaped their division in their debut contest...


Mario
Crono
Link
Sephiroth
Diablo
Vincent Valentine
L-Block*
Zack Fair*
Mega Man X*
Weighted Companion Cube*
Charizard

*advanced from their division without truly winning


...don't see this often.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2010 4:15:22 PM | message detail
Some of those characters only had to win three matches while others had to win four.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 173/208 - Today's Winners: Mario and Sora
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2010 4:16:37 PM | message detail

From: CronoBrokeNobl9 | #013
So Zard is essentially the 4th strongest Ninty character now, huh? Even Charizards biggest supporters I'm sure woulda had a tough time seeing him this strong.


Oh yeah. He's my second favorite Pokemon behind Mewtwo, and I never expected this.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
This was a triumph.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 3/14/2010 4:16:59 PM | message detail
WoW


Zard is for effing real.
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/14/2010 4:18:03 PM | message detail
True, and this format can allow divisions to be a bit softer despite winning four matches compared to 2002-2004. Still, the divisions were made the way they were and that's who made that list.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg
Japago | Posted 3/14/2010 4:18:44 PM | message detail
HG/SS came out today, so I guess that's a absolutely huge boost. It was enough to boost Mario over Cloud. That was a long time ago, but look at the difference in strength between them the very next year. I know there was Kingdom Hearts, but that game was already out nearly a year when the 03 contest ended. I bet Charizard comes down to earth next year with a large thud.

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-Heals severely dry skin -18 hour moisturization -Fragrance free -With Vitamin E
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/14/2010 4:20:50 PM | message detail
Lucarion not popular?You don't play Pokemon right?When I got the game and was on the board there were at least 4 topics per day asking about a Lucario moveset.Don't forget there is a movie too.Lucario is popular BUT all people know the 1st generation Pokemon that is why they do well.I mean Mewtwo,Missingno,Charizard,Pikachu all these are 1st generation...
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2010 4:21:58 PM | message detail
I still expect Pikachu to be at least indirectly stronger than Charizard.

It's probably an unpopular opinion now, but I would be surprised if the other way happened.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 173/208 - Today's Winners: Mario and Sora
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/14/2010 4:26:15 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #024
I still expect Pikachu to be at least indirectly stronger than Charizard.

It's probably an unpopular opinion now, but I would be surprised if the other way happened.


He'll probably finish higher in the stats, but I think "indirectly" is the best you can hope for. Pikachu lost handily to Luigi two years ago; Charizard is handily beating Bowser now. Unless you want to invoke a temporary Pokelaunch boost or another site shift that benefited Pokemon, it's kinda hard to defend Pikachu > Charizard.
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2010 4:28:03 PM | message detail
I do feel that Pokemon is stronger today compare to 2007.

HG/SS doesn't hurt either.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 173/208 - Today's Winners: Mario and Sora
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/14/2010 4:30:52 PM | message detail
Any theories as to why Charizard couldn't win the early board vote three times now? He seems to be someone suited to excel in that time frame, yes he's disappointed with it against every opponent but Duke. Maybe one could argue that Pokemon is picking up some haters, but that makes Pikachu's 20 minute lead on Snake even stranger.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
XxSoulxX | Posted 3/14/2010 4:31:15 PM | message detail
Lucarion not popular?You don't play Pokemon right?When I got the game and was on the board there were at least 4 topics per day asking about a Lucario moveset.Don't forget there is a movie too.Lucario is popular BUT all people know the 1st generation Pokemon that is why they do well.I mean Mewtwo,Missingno,Charizard,Pikachu all these are 1st generation...

Which is why Lucario is not popular on this site.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
Japago | Posted 3/14/2010 4:31:46 PM | message detail
Pikachu did get Solid ****, so you may be right. But, Pikachu wasn't here for the release of HG/SS, so under normal cirumstances, he probably wouldn't be all that close to Charizard.

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-Heals severely dry skin -18 hour moisturization -Fragrance free -With Vitamin E
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/14/2010 4:33:09 PM | message detail
Tifa has a good board vote. Some characters are just weird like that.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/14/2010 4:34:56 PM | message detail
Well, Tifa isn't a powerhouse like Cloud/Seph and actually is pretty popular around here. I guess Kratos could have been bracket-fueled, and the board does love Bowser a lot. I expected Charizard to be nearly doubling L-Block at the start, though.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Xssassine | Posted 3/14/2010 4:42:34 PM | message detail
What is the general consensus on retiring winning characters anyway? Is it something everybody thinks is a good idea but the site won't permit?
XxSoulxX | Posted 3/14/2010 4:44:59 PM | message detail
What is the general consensus on retiring winning characters anyway? Is it something everybody thinks is a good idea but the site won't permit?

The contests bring in many people outside the site to come in, vote, and to get hooked onto the site. The most popular characters do this better then others. Retiring those characters will cause less people to join the site, and less revenue for SBallen/CNET.
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/14/2010 4:51:59 PM | message detail
Could March Madness result in us having fewer voters?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/14/2010 4:54:02 PM | message detail
This board is also full of Pokefreaks. People who've played all the Pokemon games are probably more likely to consider some other Pokemon their favorite instead of Charizard - he's more of a casual favorite. Similar reason to why RBY lost the board vote to GSC, I guess.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
XxSoulxX | Posted 3/14/2010 4:56:27 PM | message detail
This board is also full of Pokefreaks. People who've played all the Pokemon games are probably more likely to consider some other Pokemon their favorite instead of Charizard - he's more of a casual favorite. Similar reason to why RBY lost the board vote to GSC, I guess.

If that's the case, why wouldn't they vote for any legit Pokemon during the board vote?
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Good Times,
Great Memories
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/14/2010 4:58:31 PM | message detail
There are almost 500 Pokemon.Everyone has a favorite.You think all of them can be in the contest?My favorite is Gyarados,always had been and always shall be.But since he isn't here I vote for the others of course.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/14/2010 5:02:31 PM | message detail
I love the Pokemon games as much as anyone, but I don't have any attachment to any particular Pokemon.

I'd vote for the games no problem, but if you throw a Pokemon into a match and I couldn't care less. Unless it's Pikachu, but I can't really explain why I like him. Maybe it's because he's iconic or whatever, or maybe it's because of the anime. I dunno.
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/14/2010 5:04:05 PM | message detail
Sounds like KleenexTissue is actually a KleenexPikachu
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/14/2010 5:16:27 PM | message detail
By the way, the votals for this match are beating out Sonic/Kirby by 5000 votes now. So we can probably assume that HGSS did something...but even if you attribute all 5000 of those votes to Zard and remove them, he still wins.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/14/2010 5:16:49 PM | message detail
vote stuffing obv
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/14/2010 5:18:06 PM | message detail
Actually, wait...they're 8000 votes higher.

Huh.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/14/2010 5:20:38 PM | message detail
And Bowser gets his first cut of the match! Round of applause, people!

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/14/2010 5:21:19 PM | message detail
Brace for the comeback.
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/14/2010 5:25:13 PM | message detail
Okay, using Sonic/Kirby as a reference, vote totals are currently 8058 above what they should be. Charizard has a lead of 6135. So if you assume that the influx of votes was caused by HGSS, then over 76.13% of those votes would have needed to go to Charizard for Bowser to win.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8OjPKN9B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZrSUvrXRc4
SonicRaptor | Posted 3/14/2010 5:26:13 PM | message detail
Came home from work to this (Charizard > Bowser)

God. Damn
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...Just repeat to yourself / It's just a show / I should really just relax...
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/14/2010 5:28:42 PM | message detail
Pokemon is just a vote draw. Nearly every match they've been in has had well above average vote totals.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/14/2010 5:29:26 PM | message detail
Pokeymanz rule I guess.So is this first time a Pokemon goes to Elite 8?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/14/2010 5:30:19 PM | message detail

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #048
Pokeymanz rule I guess.So is this first time a Pokemon goes to Elite 8?


Yep.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/14/2010 5:31:42 PM | message detail
A newcomer going to Elite 8...How often is that?2nd time?Only Vincent has done it right?L-Block too if we count 4-ways.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~