GameFAQs Contests

I'm willing to bet Yoshi hurt Fox significantly more than Sora hurt Squall. I think that's the general consensus around here, too.

I agree with this. KH and Final Fantasy probably have pretty different fanbases.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Makes a lot of sense too, especially since the FFs are much more hardcore than the KHs.

FACT OR FICTION:

World of Warcraft would now be weaksauce on this site, and only did semi-well in the Games Contest because of the recent release of an expansion pack, meaning that Arthas is another Master Chief.

Gordon Freeman would now triple Tina Armstrong, double Max Payne, and break 60% on Sam Fisher at least.

Big Daddy is not actually stronger than Freeman, and only looked like so because of the day match (because BioShock has an awesome ASV while FF7's ASV sucks, which makes no sense), the Missingno loss backlash votes, and possibly Game Fuel.

67% on Fox wasn't exactly that bad when you consider that Cloud could only score 69+% on Falcon. I bet Fox is still stronger than Falcon(look at their 2007 match). 72+% on Protoman wasn't that bad either when all Megaman characters are doing a great job at impressing.

To answer LMS's question. Fact, Fiction, Fiction.

Btw, i agree that Fox/Yoshi should have a more significant overlap than Sora/Squall.
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Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times"

FACT OR FICTION:

World of Warcraft would now be weaksauce on this site, and only did semi-well in the Games Contest because of the recent release of an expansion pack, meaning that Arthas is another Master Chief.

Gordon Freeman would now triple Tina Armstrong, double Max Payne, and break 60% on Sam Fisher at least.

Big Daddy is not actually stronger than Freeman, and only looked like so because of the day match (because BioShock has an awesome ASV while FF7's ASV sucks, which makes no sense), the Missingno loss backlash votes, and possibly Game Fuel.

Fact
Fiction (Gordon only got 53% on Peach, after all, and I'd take Peach to flatten those three.)
Fiction
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

From: Fayt_Esteed | #354
World of Warcraft would now be weaksauce on this site, and only did semi-well in the Games Contest because of the recent release of an expansion pack, meaning that Arthas is another Master Chief.

the thing is, its almost ALWAYS gonna be coming off a recent release of an expansion pack if you are basing it on 6 months after an expansion released. Its a game thats constantly being updated and having new content coming out.
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http://i44.tinypic.com/166hz0l.gif
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

Wait how do you say the second one is fiction when you say that Peach would flatten those three.

From: red sox 777 | #351
I'm willing to bet Yoshi hurt Fox significantly more than Sora hurt Squall. I think that's the general consensus around here, too.

I agree with this. KH and Final Fantasy probably have pretty different fanbases.

It's funny you should mention this, considering we have a pretty clear way of checking! In round 1, Squall got 57.86% on Yoshi. In round 2, he got 57.58% on him. In round 1, Sora got 56.24% on Fox. In round 2, he got 60.13% on him. Looks like the Squall/Yoshi proportion held pretty well, but Sora's percentage on Fox improved a good bit, for whatever the reason. I do think Sora may have overperformed in that match.

Sora got 56.24% in round 1, and I think Squall could do at least 3.76% better there, honestly. Squall getting 60% would imply he beats Sora with 54.30% straight up, and he managed to hit 60% on Sora himself once. Is Fox stronger than 2003 Luigi was? Plus, throw in the fact that Squall 2008 is probably stronger than Squall 2003 was. I'd be kinda surprised if Squall couldn't break 60% on Fox straight up.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Wait how do you say the second one is fiction when you say that Peach would flatten those three.

Gordon couldn't even blow Phoenix Wright out. And 53% on Peach is rather unimpressive.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Oh, the time change is tonight, isn't it?

Darn it, I need to get up for church tomorrow and I want Mario/Megaman to be a close match, which would involve loss of sleep.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

I think it's pretty crazy to think that Sora and Squall don't affect eachother a lot. They might have different trends, but that doesn't mean they don't draw from similar fanbases. A lot of their trends are probably determined by casuals that aren't hardcore followers.

Anyway, Sonic keeps tripping up on his way to 55%. Annoying.

So if Bowser gets 55% or higher on Charizard, at what point does Squall become the favorite against Snake?
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

So if Bowser gets 55% or higher on Charizard, at what point does Squall become the favorite against Snake?

Bowser could double Charizard and it would have no meaning for Snake/Squall. People would call it SFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

That would be quite the collapse for Snake, losing to Squall a year after beating Cloud for 2nd in the final.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

4 ways with Cloud SFFed.

Also I saw someone say Snake was viciously anti-voted. That's a joke. When has he ever been anti-voted?
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

That would be quite the collapse for Snake, losing to Squall a year after beating Cloud for 2nd in the final.

What would be the link between Snake's collapse and L-Block's collapse? Pikachu.

RatFEAR
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

I'd like to see Squall and Tifa advance to the Elite Eight. I doubt it's gonna happen, though.

Sora was the first number one seed to fall. I wonder which one will be next?
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"Hunger is the best spice, they say."

Also I saw someone say Snake was viciously anti-voted. That's a joke. When has he ever been anti-voted?

This contest? His board vote has been terrible for some reason.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Match CXV: (1) Mario vs. (3) Mega Man

Last Round

Mario – 74.10%
Ike – 25.90%

Mega Man – 72.15%
Ryu Hayabusa – 27.85%

Analysis

It was quite obvious that the board was underrating Mega Man at the beginning of the contest. People were comparing him to Sonic of the previous contest. After the last three rounds I think Mega Man has shown that he has distant himself from Crono and Sonic. However at the same time people now seem to think Mega Man has a chance at an upset and while I think the match could end up close I don’t see Mega Man having the extra push.

The main push for the upset came from Mega Man’s match last round and as impressive as it is I don’t think the match meant anything. First Hayabusa had a picture that could rival Solid Snake and Leon Kennedy for being on the wrong side of a mismatch. Second Hayabusa isn’t exactly known for being the most consistent character on the bracket. If you really want to make comparisons Solid Snake actually performed better on Hayabusa despite not having a major picture advantage.

It’s hard to compare the two characters due to not having much reliable information in this contest. Mario had two SFF matches while Mega Man went against a new character plus had that freaky match against Hayabusa. So in the end we have Big Boss and Zack Fair. Putting the two as equals Mario is expected to win by 52% and while I see those two having a close match I think I would take Big Boss to win that match.

With daylight savings coming into affect during this match the match will only last for 11 hours. While some people tried to make a big deal unless the match is 50/50 the only major difference we’ll see is the vote total. Over the three Mario/MMX matches in the previous contest the 11th to 12th hour showed very little movement.

Like I’ve said while the match may be close I don’t really see Mario losing. There may be a chance for SFF, but I don’t see it happening between these two characters. If Mega Man wants to have a chance he must start off with the lead and build it as high as he can before the dead zone and morning vote kills him off.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mario > Mega Man

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mario wins, 54.26% - 45.74%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Sora was the first number one seed to fall. I wonder which one will be next?

Sonic
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

To be fair, his board votes have been against Mega Man, Smash, and Pokemon. I expect Snake to win the board vote easily the rest of the way.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

Just because his board vote is horrible doesn't mean he's being anti-voted. It's just another sign that maybe, just maybe, he's dropped.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

Just because his board vote is horrible doesn't mean he's being anti-voted. It's just another sign that maybe, just maybe, he's dropped.

Not really, if he just dropped then he would have stayed constant after the board vote instead of rising 4-7% throughout the match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Not necessarily. Why does he have to be anti-voted to have a bad early vote? That's like saying if Sonic had won the board vote he wouldn't have gone up in percentage afterwards. Going up after the board vote doesn't mean you are being anti-voted. @_@
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

No, but it does mean that the board is anti-voting you which is usually the first step of being anti-voted.

Of course there are cases where the board doesn't care for the character, but for Snake's case I would be surprised that the board stopped caring about him after going crazy about him in the last contest.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

That's like saying if Sonic had won the board vote he wouldn't have gone up in percentage afterwards.

I think the definition of winning the board vote is that you go down in percentage afterwards. If you go up, then you lost the board vote.

You're right that a change in board vote doesn't mean that Snake didn't fall. It doesn't mean that he did either, by more than a small amount (from early voters abandoning him). It's inconclusive either way.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

I would call winning the board vote as being over 50% after it is over. It's like people saying that someone is winning NA despite losing there 60 - 40 because their overall percentage is like 37%.

It just means that you just aren't being beaten as badly in that area.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

I would call winning the board vote as being over 50% after it is over. It's like people saying that someone is winning NA despite losing there 60 - 40 because their overall percentage is like 37%.

It just means that you just aren't being beaten as badly in that area.

I remember people made a big deal out of this definitions debate a few years back, but it's just a lot easier to say "X won the board vote" as opposed to "X lost the board vote by less than he lost the match overall." I'm pretty sure that's what most people take "winning Y" to mean here.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

I would call winning the board vote as being over 50% after it is over. It's like people saying that someone is winning NA despite losing there 60 - 40 because their overall percentage is like 37%.

It just means that you just aren't being beaten as badly in that area.

You may want to change your defination of winning or else we could say thing like Crono won the ASV over Master Chief in 2005.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Mushroom Division: Round 4 - Match 115 – (1) Mario vs. (3) Mega Man

Moltar’s Analysis

Mario
Round 1 - 81.04% vs. Falco
Round 2 - 63.16% vs. Big Boss
Round 3 - 74.10% vs. Ike

No sympathy here

Mega Man
Round 1 - 63.04% vs. Cid
Round 2 - 61.66% vs. Zack
Round 3 - 72.15% vs. Ryu H

Cid and Zack reconfirmed for good strength

So an MM > Mario hype train is forming. While it’s no Snake > Seph or Samus > Cloud train, I’ll entertain it. MM has looked great so far with impressive wins over high-midcarders like Cid and Zack, and a big win over Ryu H. MMX was pretty close to Mario in the matches they had in 2008, and MM has looked stronger than MMX. Plus, it being a night match helps MM too, as MMX did manage to hold the lead over Mario at night.

However this upset is not happening. MMX being close to Mario in a four-way match with other Nintendo hurting Mario is one thing. Mario and MM going at it in a one-on-one match is something else. Not only has Mario looked fine so far (the Big Boss match was especially good), but he’s also got the SFF advantage if there is any. Yeah, Link didn’t seem to have done much to MMX, but I believe Mario and MM have a closer relation and more overlap. I don’t see any major SFF happening, but I do think MM is going to look weaker than he should.

MM isn’t magically stronger because he actually didn’t suck in the first three rounds. He’s just actually getting business done this year and looking like he should.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mario > Mega Man

Moltar’s Prediction: Mario: 59% - Mega Man: 41%



Lopen’s Analysis

If I see a ton of "SMAUS/MARIO LOLOL" mentions in write-ups, someone's gonna pay. That logic just doesn't apply to Mega Man.

Now that being said... does Mega Man have a chance? Uhhh... you know I really don't know! I'd love to say he does. He's looked arguably better than Mario this year, but Mario hasn't exactly looked shabby. Stats say Mega Man has like a 57-43 or so coming... I can't say I trust that, though. Mostly because Mega Man X cut it close with Mario several times over last year. Mario had a lot of excuses in every match, but the fact remains MMX did it. A MMX who is almost certainly weaker than Mega Man.

Further, we didn't really get anything resembling a good read on Mega Man last year. Snake and his weighted cardboard box ousted him in R3 in a most dubious fashion, with Zero dragging him down to hell. Mega Man could've been trending upwards since 2007-- we really can't say.

KP's probably got my back here from the GUEST CLAN front, bein the main guy to hype this upset. But that's just because I've been lazy this year. I've been waffling over this one for a while and have never counted Mega Man out... and now my gut says Mega Man's got this. People are practically fiending for a change in hierarchy here (did you see Link turn into Cloud vs Luigi?), and I think Mario will be DA VICTIM.

GET EQUIPPED WITH
UPSET SPECIAL

Lopen's prediction:
Mega Man with 50.05%



Transience’s Analysis

There's a lot of hype for this one. Mega Man has undeniably had the better performances. 72% on sprite Hayabusa is massive, even if Hayabusa's at a pretty big disadvantage. Mega Man also beat down the FF7 duo. Mario, meanwhile, has only had one real match, a nice showing against Naked Snake.

Mega Man is known to overlap with Nintendo; in 2005 he annihilated Yoshi and in 2008, Mega Man X lost to Zack in a fourway with Mario and Link. Mega Man is more independent than other Nintendo guys, but he's still identified as a Nintendo character. As such, I have a hard time seeing him beating Nintendo's main mascot no matter the strength. It's like a lesser form of Mario/Samus - I think Samus is stronger outright than Mario is (and her performances this year have validated her as such), but there's no way she'll ever win that match.

I also don't know what to make of Mega Man's performances so far this year. I don't know how strong Zack is. Cid is a wildcard since we've never seen him before. Hayabusa was a nice win, but I think his sprite picture hurts him significantly. Mega Man is definitely stronger than he was back in 2006, but I don't know how much. The Zero/Auron match told me more about Mega Man's boost than any of his matches this year.

I am cheering like hell for Mega Man -- he's probably my favourite character in this contest -- but I have to give this one to Mario. This being a night match helps Mega Man significantly, but he'll need more than just a night match to beat Mario.

transience's prediction: Mario with 56.59%



Ngamer’s Analysis


Quickie w/ Ng: I'm one of the bigger MM fans around, and not even I think he's capable of keeping this one close. Night match for a guy who Europe and Asia don't like, "it's freaking Mario", Link doubling X without breaking a sweat... I'll stick around 57, but Mario shooting to 60 wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Ngamer Says: Mario > Mega Man, 57.07%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Over the course of this contest, Mega Man has looked statistically better than Mario. If you base this match purely on the stats, Mega Man has a real chance here and should probably even be called the favorite. But in my mind, this is a classic case of IT'S FRIGGIN' MARIO (hi KP). Yes, MMX led Mario for 9 some odd hours last year, but it was in a match with a bunch of other Nintendo character and it was LOL 4-WAYS. Yes, this match is an hour shorter than it should be. But Mario's not going to drop this. Mega Man will probably look pretty good early on, but Mario's not going to have any real trouble here.

Bracket: Mario
Favorites: Mario
Prediction: Mario with 55.31%

Did MC get a higher percentange than 50 during the ASV?
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

Red Sox’s Analysis

Megaman has done everything in his power to convince us he has a shot of winning this match tonight. He put up 63% on Cid, then 61% on Zack, both very impressive performances. Then he put up 72% on Ryu Hayabusa immediately after Mario only put up 74% on Ike. Which is a bigger handicap, SFF or Hayabusa's sprite? Of course, Mario hasn't been too shabby himself this year- he put up 63% on Big Boss at night.

Nonetheless, statistically, this looks to be a pretty close match. The night probably favors Megaman slightly, but not by much. The problem a lot of people have with this is that it's freaking Mario or something like that. Then they throw around Mario/Samus and a bunch of insults about how obvious this match is and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot. Well, it isn't, and Mario has yet to demonstrate the ability to SFF anyone he needs to beat- just Samus.

Mario may turn on the Nintendo or Old School SFF in this match and win 60-40.....but Megaman could just as easily win. Since the range of possibilities shows many more possible percentages Mario can win with than Megaman, I'm going with a narrow Mario win as my prediction tonight, but hoping for Megaman to pull it off. No guru took MM before the contest. Not one. We had Missingno winning the contest, Mario losing to Sora, Crono beating Sephiroth (that wasn't me!), and even Falcon beating Cloud, but not one person took this.

Shaped like Freaking Mario to lose to a real robot!

Prediction: Mario with 51.00%
Upset Potential: 25%
Upper Bound: Mario with 60.00%
Lower Bound: Mega Man with 52.00%



Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato


I'll be brief. So far, Mega Man has performed on Mario's level. That's not hyping, it's a conclusion anyone can come to just by looking at the numbers. If you assume that Cid=Aeris, then you can get these comparisons:

Mega Man: 39.14% vs. Link (through Zack)
Mega Man: 62.12% vs. Zero (through Cid)

Mario 2k5: 39.59% vs. Link
Mario 2k5: 62.86% vs. Zero

Then when you factor in that MM does a good bit better against Zack and Cid in a 24-hour match, and you've already Mega Man exceeding two results that Mario put up in what pretty much everyone agrees was his strongest year. Then you factor in it being a night match and GameFAQs shying away from the obvious results lately and...yeah.

Mega Man>Mario, 50.5%



Crew Consensus: MM > Mario? Not here, as the majority easily favors Mario

Mario with 60+% People claim Mega Man is still stronger and that it was SFF when Sonic does better in the X-stats. Mega Man gets adjusted to be above Sonic out of spite.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

Whoa, three Crew guys going with Mega Man for the upset!

(bad idea!)
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Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Did MC get a higher percentange than 50 during the ASV?

He didn't win a single update in that match. He did however performed a lot better relative to night.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Oh come on...Cid <<< Aeris. @_@
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

We currently define "winning the ___ vote" to mean that character is doing better during that time period relative to other time periods regardless of if they are over 50% or not. The reason for not going with the 50% version is because it's not a very useful definition. There aren't very many battles where a character is getting over 50% during some periods and getting less than 50% in others. Also in the cases where that does happen, using the current definition will generally end up with us saying they are winning the section where they are over 50% and losing the sections where they are below 50% anyways. It's just a term we use for describing sections of a day a character does better or worse in. As long as everyone knows what we mean, it doesn't matter too much that is sounds silly that we can say a character getting only 15% of the vote and increasing is winning a time period.
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Every night will have a day. Even forever has to come to an end. 2/14/2010 24:00 EST

Well if he didn't win a single update he couldn't have won the ASV.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

Whoa, three Crew guys going with Mega Man for the upset!

(bad idea!)

At least the crew curse won't hurt Mario.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

I think we shouldn't have an "official" adjusted extrapolated standings this year. The adjustments would be too arbitrary- it's not like back in 2004 when we could just plug in the character's x-stat value from the previous year. The previous year is a 4-way, and stats from 2006 are just as unhelpful.

Just leave the raw stats as they are. Then they will be truly extrapolated stats, and not a ranking, either by consensus or by one person here.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Whoa, three Crew guys going with Mega Man for the upset!

I think you mean two!
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Something tells me you are just saying this to give Crono a better ranking -- but I can agree to it anyway. I know that Crono is the weakest of the N9, and he couldn't even beat Squall/Vincent/Auron/Tifa anymore so.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

I agree with no adjustments for the x-stats. I may make one based on adjusting the day/night matches to resemble 24 hour matches (make NA stronger for night matches and weaker for day matches), but even those won't be helpful since even continents have trends.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

From: EternalxCourage | #383
Oh come on...Cid <<< Aeris. @_@

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3694

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http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER

Nah, I've been saying this since at least 2008. Granted, the situation was somewhat different then with 4-ways, and trying to adjust them was an even more hopeless endeavour, but the same argument still applies here.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Lol...I don't even need to laugh at 12 ways.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

From: EternalxCourage | #1860
Did MC get a higher percentange than 50 during the ASV?

Please don't be a fool.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Also Cid would never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever post 47% on Sonic ever.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

47% on Sonic? What are you talking abo-

...

A match from 2003 okay curt

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http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER

I think that the X-stats should remain Raw except for Yoshi, MissingNo and Crono should be taken out of the X-Stats completely for this year.

Everything else should be pretty solid as there are very few SFF matches and the SFF this year seems to be very minimal.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

Also Cid would never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever post 47% on Sonic ever.

Maybe in 2003.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic