GameFAQs Contests

Blue streak speeds by...

Sonic the Hedgehog.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, Missingno etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Sonic's got this
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Gamefaqs mods:"No, we moderate random posts for fun."

Was making your sig in bold part of the bet? That's harsh!
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I don't think I'm over-projecting. But we'll see soon enough. I'm gonna take off for a while. When I get back Sonic you better be blasting at least 57%'s and be above 55%!
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Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.

Why not? His last update was 56.7 percent? If he continues to just get stronger (which seems to be the trend so far) he'll be blasting above 57% in no time.

In order to "blast" above 57% he needs 60% updates and to consistently break 58%
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Chart from the night match:

Time | Link | Luigi | Votes
0:05 | 67.37% | 32.63% | 1284
1:00 | 69.35% | 30.65% | 9839
2:00 | 71.23% | 28.77% | 6681
3:00 | 72.61% | 27.39% | 4867
4:00 | 70.79% | 29.21% | 3841
5:00 | 71.22% | 28.78% | 3085
6:00 | 70.53% | 29.47% | 2827
7:00 | 69.89% | 30.11% | 2836
8:00 | 69.71% | 30.29% | 3334
9:00 | 70.39% | 29.61% | 4107
10:00 | 72.85% | 27.15% | 4898
11:00 | 72.55% | 27.45% | 5737
12:00 | 72.35% | 27.65% | 5679

Luigi does well early and manages a couple other 30% hours with the early morning vote, but Link rocked those last three hours.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

I was talking about update %s, not his overall %.

Anyway, I consider that update to round out the hour to be an outlier. He's dropped a couple to 53% before. Won't last.
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Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.

It's cool that we've got an iconic showdown tonight and Bowser/Charizard in 23 hours, but we essentially have a three day (6-match) break after that until we hit Samus/Cloud.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

And looking at the stats, it looks like Rikku and Vivi will finish above Lightning, which, in my opinion, doesn't argue well for her being stronger than Cid or Zack.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Another percentage drop by Sonic. This should be leveling off at around this for a while I think.
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:>

From: LeonhartFour | #009
And looking at the stats, it looks like Rikku and Vivi will finish above Lightning, which, in my opinion, doesn't argue well for her being stronger than Cid or Zack.

The fact she is even in the same league as them with an unreleased game says good things about her future strength, though. She'll blow them away next contest
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http://i44.tinypic.com/166hz0l.gif
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

Go Sonic go! It's great he's back to his former (and rightful) glory, and this shows Sonic Team really was terrible in the four-way format and/or Kirby's bandwagon in 2008 started on or before facing Sonic.

Now let's see Sonic stand up to Link. If SFF was more present this year, I don't know if he could...but as-is, Sonic may avoid the doubling!
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg

Unless Sonic gets SFF'd, I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't avoid the doubling.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Samus/Cloud is interesting because you heard all this stuff about poor Samus in a night match, yet all the evidence we have indicates if anyone is handicapped by a night match there, it's Cloud. Samus definitely is not hurt by the night match, even if she's getting tripled in the dead hours.

FF7 and 12-hour night matches simply do not mix well. Even with the FF7 total domination zone - it's just not nearly enough to make up for the Power Hour patheticness and lower vote totals handicaps. Cloud and Sephiroth would do better in the day against pretty much every character, except maybe the most 2nd 12 hour imbalanced ones.
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Sonic's glory is on par with samus, he still has a lot of work to do.
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Shakes Fist!

And than a huge jump by sonic. hmm...

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, Missingno etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

Change Kirby with Bowser
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg

Kirby's on that list because he's come ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past, even if it was a fluke.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Yeah I need to add Bowser into that list.
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·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·
Are you going to pick my pocket?

I'd drop Kirby and Zelda IMO. We really need those Nintendo guys to have a match against the Square guys,
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Dropping Zelda could be passable, but you can't drop Kirby even if you want to go "lol 4ways". It still happened.
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:>

Yeah, you could drop Zelda. The closest she's ever come is, what, 45% on Snake and Samus?
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

I think we need to change to wording a bit. Magus and Shadow were once near the Noble Nine in the past.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

The closest Magus ever came to a Noble Niner was, what, 35% on Link? Shadow got 45% on Mario, so we can neglect that, too.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

*the wording
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

I just saw that Sephiroth/Tifa is a day match. I think that means unless she's simply much better at resisting SFF, she's going to finish significantly below Vincent.

Cloud and Sephiroth's day votes are much better than those of the rest of the FF7 cast, due to Kingdom Hearts. Also the anti-voting dampened Seph's % against Vincent - Seph would've killed Vincent in the daylight hours (makes sense for the vampire!), as he did in the morning. Overnight people thought Seph was "winning" the dead zone, but this was a total illusion, since he was hurt so much by the early vote. It was Vincent's fall in % that was being cushioned by the dead zone. Once daylight hit it was domination time.

So even if Tifa finishes significantly below Vincent, we still won't know if she's truly weaker than him or not. She could finish way off from Vincent and still be stronger than him in a 24 hour match.

And of course if she somehow finishes above Vincent, it might just mean Sephiroth can't SFF a weaker female as much as a weaker male badass.
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When was Zelda even put on there? I know for a fact I didn't do it.

Where's TRE when you need him most.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone has one and no one thinks theirs stink." -Lunar 2

I think Tifa would be more likely to resist SFF from Sephiroth just due to the fact that she doesn't have the same "appeal" as he does, unlike Vincent. In 2008, Tifa got 37.63% in round 1 (which was about as close to a 1-on-1 match as you could get in a 4-way, since Ratchet and Nana were the other two in the poll) and 32.57% in round 2. I'd say she gets closer to that first number.
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Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.

I definitely wouldn't define Kirby or Zelda as near-elite. Near-elite has pretty much been Squall/Vincent/Auron.

And Missingno I'd say is more "elite", since he actually beat Crono 1v1 (although this is comparable to Vincent beating Crono, since Crono probably would've won a 24 hour match). But pegging his strength as near-elite makes sense.
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I still think the wording should be changed, if you did it in the past it doesn't mean that you are still near-elite.

The list should defintely have Missingno, Vincent, Squall, Auron and Tifa, maybe Bowser and Luigi.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

since Crono probably would've won a 24 hour match

Not too sure about that...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

I'm still confused why Missingno. needs to be on the list and L-Block does not. We don't know for a fact Missingno. won't suffer a drop off like L-Block did, despite not winning this contest. WCC has dropped significantly despite winning.
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:>

despite not winning*, for WCC of course.
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:>

So is Lightning just a total monster?
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082

I'm still confused why Missingno. needs to be on the list and L-Block does not. We don't know for a fact Missingno. won't suffer a drop off like L-Block did, despite not winning this contest. WCC has dropped significantly despite winning.

Which is why I'm in support for the list changing through time.

Heck pre-contest a lot of us pegged Sora as near-elite.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

Missingno would have had to rally another 4000+ votes to win a 24-hour match, since Crono won the day segment without rallying and would have won the night segment by more. But he would have had a great shot at doing just that.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

Yes, Tifa probably deserves to be on there. I certainly wouldn't add Bowser and Luigi though.

From: LeonhartFour | #109
I think Tifa would be more likely to resist SFF from Sephiroth just due to the fact that she doesn't have the same "appeal" as he does, unlike Vincent. In 2008, Tifa got 37.63% in round 1 (which was about as close to a 1-on-1 match as you could get in a 4-way, since Ratchet and Nana were the other two in the poll) and 32.57% in round 2. I'd say she gets closer to that first number.

Ah yes, forgot about that match.

Let's see - in the first 12 hours, Seph got 60.92%. In the 2nd twelve hours he got...63.99%!! And this was a weekend match, where one would presume trends are diluted. Damn.

The day match is going to murder Tifa here. She'll end up heavily underrated, due to day match and SFF combo.
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[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Missingno would have had to rally another 4000+ votes to win a 24-hour match, since Crono won the day segment without rallying and would have won the night segment by more. But he would have had a great shot at doing just that.

You do remember that Europe hates Crono right? Looking at that match Missingno may have had an easier time winning at night.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

When was Zelda even put on there? I know for a fact I didn't do it.

Where's TRE when you need him most.

Part 757 and you created that one. It doesn't seem like it was suggested by someone else either.
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Every night will have a day. Even forever has to come to an end. 2/14/2010 24:00 EST

Crono generally does better at night, Europe be damned.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

From the vote-in, Missingno was almost perfectly balanced between night and day. Crono is much better at night. Sure, he sucks in the dead zone, but he sucks almost as badly in the day, and he's far far better in the first few hours. Actually, against Nintendo, Crono always does better during the dead zone than during the day- going up against Vincent so much has made his late night vote seem worse than his day when it really isn't.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

From: vcharon | #153
I'm still confused why Missingno. needs to be on the list and L-Block does not. We don't know for a fact Missingno. won't suffer a drop off like L-Block did, despite not winning this contest. WCC has dropped significantly despite winning.

One is a "might possibly happen", the other is a "did happen". L-Block is not strong anymore, we know this. Missingno dropping is hypothetical.

From: red sox 777 | #157
Missingno would have had to rally another 4000+ votes to win a 24-hour match, since Crono won the day segment without rallying and would have won the night segment by more. But he would have had a great shot at doing just that.

Nah, that would've been incredibly unlikely. You can't just pull 4,000 votes out of a hat. Especially in a 12-hour period where you're dealing with 55K votes, you haven't built up momentum, and the opponent isn't Sephiroth. "Rallying" ain't that easy at all.
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Since we're talking about the first post, I think it would be nice to mention the Noble Nine's record (as of Sonic/Kirby today, 142-1 one-on-one and 318-12 ever), though maybe it'd be better after the contest ends. I'm also not sure of a near-elite category is necessary, though if we keep it I'd like to see it better clarified. As is, L-Block and WCC should be added...and Kirby's performance today might be enough to remove him if Sonic's still the weakest Noble Niner.
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Picking Auron > Squall was dumb, but not as dumb as thinking I could beat Leonhart!
Keep on smilin'! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8863/72571365.jpg

And I think Missingno would have had a harder time in a 24-hour match than a 12-hour match, even a night match. Missingno was balanced between day and night in the vote-in because the night section was the first section, so he got his joke support then. The longer the poll drags on, the worse he'll do, holding all other things constant.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

From: charmander6000 | #160
Missingno would have had to rally another 4000+ votes to win a 24-hour match, since Crono won the day segment without rallying and would have won the night segment by more. But he would have had a great shot at doing just that.

You do remember that Europe hates Crono right? Looking at that match Missingno may have had an easier time winning at night.

You can't rely on geolocation logic. You have to work out the actual 12-hour numbers.

Crono usually drops from his noon %. Chrono Trigger is typically better in the first 12-hours, unless their opponents are likewise unbalanced (e.g. Crono rose from noon in some matches with L-Block).
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Nah, that would've been incredibly unlikely. You can't just pull 4,000 votes out of a hat. Especially in a 12-hour period where you're dealing with 55K votes, you haven't built up momentum, and the opponent isn't Sephiroth. "Rallying" ain't that easy at all.

You're probably right; it was just so frustrating to see every Crono hard-earned gain be erased with a surge in vote intake when Missingno needed it. But I suppose Sephiroth did just prove that joke characters can be beaten even after they lead you by 600.
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2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!

As is, L-Block and WCC should be added...and Kirby's performance today might be enough to remove him if Sonic's still the weakest Noble Niner.

I disagree this contest pretty much proved that L-Block and WCC are no longer near-elites.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic

You know I'm still highly confused as to why people continue to use geolocation to try and predict 12-hour strengths. All one has to do is look at the number at noon in a few matches (hopefully 3 or more, if possible), and compare it to midnight. Did it go up or down? Pretty simple - that tells you most of what you need to know right there.

And if you want hard numbers, just subtract and find out what the 2nd half %ages were.
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