GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 876

creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:40:17 AM | message detail

From: EternalxCourage | #2206
Anyway, you guys think that because he has a higher NA percentage right now means it will stay that way? Of course he's doing better with the early vote in NA because that's most of the board vote and Nintendo support. As the day goes on his % will get worse and worse in NA just like in most matches.


About this, you're actually probably right.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:40:40 AM | message detail
Well considering Sonic has just made two pretty decent % gains in a row, it seems that Kirby's support lasted all the way up until 12:30.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:40:46 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #2210
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/4919/mariovbowser.jpg


Sweet pic.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
voltch | Posted 3/13/2010 9:40:47 AM | message detail
dude, that is so unfair mario's power levels got multiplied.
---
Shakes Fist!
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/13/2010 9:40:55 AM | message detail
.03% gain is decent?

---
http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER
red sox 777 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:40:58 AM | message detail
NA will become more important as the day progresses because Europe will go to sleep. The nice thing about this particular debate is that it will be settled within 12 hours, hooray!
---
2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:41:02 AM | message detail
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/4919/mariovbowser.jpg

Reminds me of SSBM/FFX

Still cool though.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/13/2010 9:42:04 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #445
No one on the board should care about their bracket if they're doing poorly. Just call it a wash, try again next year, and hope something crazy happens to make the contest interesting.


Sorry, but elitism. People can vote based on any criteria they want. I can't even rank my favorite characters outside of, like, the top two. If #17 is up against #33, then I might just back #33 if it means good things for my bracket. Not everyone is like that, and that's fine, but remember that not everyone around here is so attached to the characters that they'd never be willing to compromise.
---
Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:42:15 AM | message detail
Kirby should get stronger as the day goes on, because once most of the UK is asleep (Sonic has almost 70% there), Kirby will start cutting percentage.

Ugh you guys make the same argument against Sonic as you did with Ganondorf. Don't you realize that just because he does worse in Europe doesn't mean he's going to keep getting better in NA! Or that his percentage will stay the same in NA. Sonic is going to keep bringing on the percentage as the day goes on and he gets more and more support from NA.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/13/2010 9:42:31 AM | message detail
That's actually an awesome pic. All those versions of Mario, and Bowser just casually sitting there like, "...And? That's it?"

But yeah, there's no way Sonic gets above 57% even if the day vote favors him.
---
Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:42:32 AM | message detail
It's premature though! :) The Zard still has a great shot. I think that match is a toss-up.

Although I would've liked for Zard to have done a couple points better against Block. Charizard's ASV against Block was also shockingly weaksauce.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/13/2010 9:42:46 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #450
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/4919/mariovbowser.jpg


XD

Maybe your best job yet.
---
Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2010 9:43:40 AM | message detail

From: vcharon | #301
I still think Kirby can finish better than Ganondorf did.


Probably will. At least I hope so.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
Make me a perfect lie.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/13/2010 9:43:45 AM | message detail
Although I would've liked for Zard to have done a couple points better against Block. Charizard's ASV against Block was also shockingly weaksauce.

L-Block has become one of the most balanced characters in the contest, trends-wise, based on his matches this year.

Go figure.
---
Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:44:29 AM | message detail
Ugh you guys make the same argument against Sonic as you did with Ganondorf. Don't you realize that just because he does worse in Europe doesn't mean he's going to keep getting better in NA! Or that his percentage will stay the same in NA. Sonic is going to keep bringing on the percentage as the day goes on and he gets more and more support from NA.

The difference is that in that match, it was North America going to sleep, while in this match, it's Europe. But we'll see soon enough- I wouldn't expect this to move more than 1% or so from here in any case. Weekend day matches have very little trend movement.
---
2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:44:36 AM | message detail

From: EternalxCourage | #2259
Ugh you guys make the same argument against Sonic as you did with Ganondorf. Don't you realize that just because he does worse in Europe doesn't mean he's going to keep getting better in NA! Or that his percentage will stay the same in NA. Sonic is going to keep bringing on the percentage as the day goes on and he gets more and more support from NA.


Once again you seem to be right.

However Sonic ain't rising to heaven, it just won't happen. I don't expect too much movement either way. Maybe he'll finish 0.75% up or down I'd say.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:44:50 AM | message detail
.03 after a .12 or whatever is pretty good. Especially if it continues consistently there is 12 updates an hour and 11 hours left in the poll plus some, that gives....About a 4% gain and that's only with .03 updates. I'm sure that he'll get bigger ones than that.

Anyway - Kirby's NA% is likely inflated from the board vote. But as the match goes on we'll see.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/13/2010 9:45:24 AM | message detail
I vote out of place all the time. I just don't see the point in backing a dead bracket.

---
http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:45:54 AM | message detail
Lol target attack!

Kirby stompin' goin' good.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2010 9:46:47 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #333
Not really. I've never understood why people have such an obsession with stats topic e-dickery. Calling a debatable match is as much luck as it is prediction skills. And the people in this match all picked Sonic! This is even more pathetic in that it's people laughing at other people arguing for an outside shot. That's just sad.


I haven't laughed or anything, but I always felt the Sonic angst was overrated. The Ganon upset never made any sense to me, and Kirby was overrated by a 4way bandwagon. In my own mind, I was close to 100% sure Sonic was winning this division. Got a little worried after that Cecil/Knuckles debacle, but then Kratos/Tails happened. The 1 seed I was worried about was Sora.
---
¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸
How does it feel when all you're counting on is scatterbrained?
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:46:52 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #2304
L-Block has become one of the most balanced characters in the contest, trends-wise, based on his matches this year.

Go figure.


But if Block was neutral trend-wise, then Char should've murdered him with the ASV.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3833&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Instead they looked to have the same ASV basically. Strange.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 3/13/2010 9:46:59 AM | message detail
Sonic starting to increase pretty good
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/13/2010 9:47:41 AM | message detail
But if Block was neutral trend-wise, then Char should've murdered him with the ASV.

I mean that L-Block barely shifted percentage in ANY of its matches. Once it hits a percentage, it just...stays there.
---
Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2010 9:47:54 AM | message detail

From: Biolizard28 | #376
Please, tell me why there was any reason pre-contest to believe Sonic wouldn't still be horrible.


"LOL 4WAY STATS" is my reason.
---
·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·
Writhe in my cage of torment, my friend.
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:47:57 AM | message detail
Sonic just collected his first Chaos Emerald. As time goes on he'll just get stronger. Kirby is going to get weaker from all the stompin'.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:48:02 AM | message detail
Like Yoblazer, I don't have a fixed ranking for all the characters. Part of the reason is that I just haven't played very many games to start with, and I care a lot more about these contests than gaming, so much of my preferences are based on the contests. Now that I think about it, it isn't even true that the character I vote for is always the one I want to win- sometimes I'll vote just to make their percentage higher.
---
2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:48:17 AM | message detail
I vote out of place all the time. I just don't see the point in backing a dead bracket.

Sometimes it's those little things that cause you to vote for your 10th favourite character rather than your 9th favourite.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:48:36 AM | message detail
From: Biolizard28 | #376
Please, tell me why there was any reason pre-contest to believe Sonic wouldn't still be horrible.


"LOL 4WAY STATS" is my reason.


Haha...Ulti I literally already quoted this and answered with the same thing.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/13/2010 9:48:39 AM | message detail
Kirby would be doing good just to outdo Ganondorf
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:49:03 AM | message detail

From: EternalxCourage | #2307
Anyway - Kirby's NA% is likely inflated from the board vote. But as the match goes on we'll see.


Indeed. The NA% is not to be relied on too strongly. It's early vote corrupted. It's only an extremely vague guidestick, and not highly unreliable.

I'd still be surprised if Sonic finished with 55%.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:49:58 AM | message detail
Even after the gains he's making right now? He's smashing Kirby on the curb. If he posts another big update I'll still be confident in 58%.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/13/2010 9:51:17 AM | message detail

From: EternalxCourage | #481
Even after the gains he's making right now? He's smashing Kirby on the curb. If he posts another big update I'll still be confident in 58%.


Sonic hasn't even had a 58% update yet. In fact, in his last four updates, his best percentage was 56.38%, and the other three have been a decent bit less than that.
---
Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:51:37 AM | message detail
I'd still be surprised if Sonic finished with 55%.

55% is kind of lowballing it. Sonic seems set to break that and even if Kirby does better later he may still hold on.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2010 9:52:04 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #460
That's actually an awesome pic. All those versions of Mario, and Bowser just casually sitting there like, "...And? That's it?"


You always "get" my pics, Leon. I love it <3
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
Skipping school to bungee jump will get you suspended.
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:52:14 AM | message detail
Lol Sonic is definitely going to end above 55% as the day goes on I would expect his percentage of votes received to go up.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:52:53 AM | message detail
55% is still highballing it, but quite possible.
---
2010 Extrapolated Standings: Crono gets 46.85% on Sephiroth.
All you need now is KH3 or SSB4, Crono. Then your quest shall be fulfilled!
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:53:11 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #2353
I mean that L-Block barely shifted percentage in ANY of its matches. Once it hits a percentage, it just...stays there.


But if someone is totally neutral across all time periods, then their opponents trends will determine the trend. There's no such thing as a power to neutralize your opponent's trends, unless you have the same trend yourself.

Zard having the same trends as Block hardly gives on confidence in his ASV (weekend afternoon vote) for a match against Bowser.

Still think Zard is 50/50 though. I think he and Bowser are pretty much at the same level of strength. Although if one of them is to win going away with 53+%, then that will be Bowser.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/13/2010 9:53:29 AM | message detail
Sonic's consistently getting 55%+ updates at this point, but that doesn't mean he'll maintain that.
---
Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.
Kamekguy | Posted 3/13/2010 9:54:08 AM | message detail
*gets on*

*crosses fingers voting for Kirby*

*whimpers*
---
"All the money's in turning face" ~ Gold Knuckle
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:54:21 AM | message detail
Heh figures the day I wake up late for a match is a big one like this. Not surprised to see Sonic win easily though; Kirby has always been overrated.
---
http://i44.tinypic.com/166hz0l.gif
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
EternalxCourage | Posted 3/13/2010 9:54:32 AM | message detail
I'm predicting above 56% for the next update.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2010 9:54:43 AM | message detail

From: EternalxCourage | #478
From: Biolizard28 | #376
Please, tell me why there was any reason pre-contest to believe Sonic wouldn't still be horrible.


"LOL 4WAY STATS" is my reason.


Haha...Ulti I literally already quoted this and answered with the same thing.


I didn't even notice the match began until a little bit ago, so I was catching up =p

But yeah, some weird circumstances (Nintendo SFF, bandwagons, Shadow being crap, 4ways, a fluke Cecil boost) contributed to a legitimate Sonic Team angst. There was good reason to pick the Kirby upset here, but it was still an upset. But Ganon made NO sense to me.
---
·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:55:25 AM | message detail
XD Kirby is winning in Canada.

Makes sense since the country was crazy about Nintendo consoles until the Gamecube and even then I think it did better relative to the rest of the world.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 157/192 - Today's Winners: Link and Sonic
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 3/13/2010 9:56:02 AM | message detail
Another pretty big jump by Sonic
CJaM613 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:56:35 AM | message detail
Did you guys see that? Almost 57%!
---
Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:56:46 AM | message detail

From: creativename | #2360
Indeed. The NA% is not to be relied on too strongly. It's early vote corrupted. It's only an extremely vague guidestick, and not highly unreliable.


Meant to say "and highly unreliable". As obviously being evidenced by Sonic's big gains right now. Someone being weak early in NA is not a reliable way to predict future trends.

Yeah 55% is looking more possible right now. He won't finish with 56% though.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2010 9:57:06 AM | message detail

From: CJaM613 | #495
Did you guys see that? Almost 57%!


^5
---
·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·
Is a momentary gleam all you need?
CJaM613 | Posted 3/13/2010 9:57:58 AM | message detail
Why not? His last update was 56.7 percent? If he continues to just get stronger (which seems to be the trend so far) he'll be blasting above 57% in no time.
---
Curt
Hey soul sister, hey that mister mister on the radio, stereo, the way you move ain't fair ya know.
creativename | Posted 3/13/2010 9:58:24 AM | message detail

From: CJaM613 | #2458
Why not? His last update was 56.7 percent? If he continues to just get stronger (which seems to be the trend so far) he'll be blasting above 57% in no time.


You're over-projecting the trend.
---
gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/13/2010 9:59:01 AM | message detail
Heh.
---
Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created.