GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 875

Achromatic | Posted 3/12/2010 4:58:37 AM | message detail
By the way, what's the record for biggest turn around in a 24 hour match (from being down to leading by some amount)
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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 4:59:23 AM | message detail
So Sephiroth brought the morning vote deluge like I thought he would. The past hour he's gotten 54.98%. He should get higher than that during the DSV, and of course he'll finish with the highest percentage he's had.

From: KamikazePotato | #952
Looks like Missingno would have won a day match, too. Oh well.


I can't even imagine what would make you say this?
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 4:59:57 AM | message detail
Only reason Missingno would win in the day is that the ralliers would keep it barely above Sephiroth.
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/12/2010 5:00:00 AM | message detail
Uh probably some case where Cloud didn't have the lead for the first minute

Biggest normal case is still Sonic v Crono 2006, I think

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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/12/2010 5:01:13 AM | message detail
uh

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3840&region=NAM
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3840&region=US

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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/12/2010 5:01:41 AM | message detail
Biggest "normal" case is Kuja/Master Hand, I'm pretty certain.
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Achromatic | Posted 3/12/2010 5:02:55 AM | message detail
missingno just cut.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:03:15 AM | message detail
By the way, what's the record for biggest turn around in a 24 hour match (from being down to leading by some amount)

Those aren't really fair to use IMO.

The answer is Squall/Luigi by 23k votes, I think.
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/12/2010 5:04:16 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #191
Kinda figured Seph would come back and win easily, but MN still gave us a great contest.


Backpedaling! That's not what you said when you left!

Actually, I kinda figured that once we hit the FFVII Domination Zone, Sephiroth would start doing so well that it wouldn't matter what the ralliers did.

Sephiroth's winning by way too much to think Missingno wins a day match though. Trends wouldn't matter in that match because Sephiroth would be so below his expected strength that he would have nowhere to go but up...as usual.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:04:54 AM | message detail
uh

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3840&region=NAM
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3840&region=US


More than just the US votes in the day. If rallying was not ramped up when Sephiroth comes back he would win in the day.
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/12/2010 5:05:02 AM | message detail
And MissnongNo. opens the 8 o'clock hour with a cut. Does anyone give him a chance here?
Just for kicks, he needs over 37 votes per update. Yeah... not happening.
Unless Crono's support also adds Frog's!
red sox 777 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:05:16 AM | message detail
Well, it was a good try, Missingno. Now you need a Starcraft-like rally in the morning, which has a really really really low chance of happening, but it looks like you can still finish around 47%. Crono in a day match is worth 47% on Sephiroth? I'll take that- I can even start arguing Crono > Sephiroth again!
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/12/2010 5:06:41 AM | message detail
Crono in a day match and then Missingno in a night match against Sephiroth! Crono could be higher in any adjusted x-stats someone cares to make!

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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 5:07:49 AM | message detail
Not geolocation logic again. I've done plenty of analyses on this before - geolocation logic simply does not work. People around here use it in very faulty fashion.

That NA percent is from the early vote. Sephiroth will just keep going up in % there. Early vote is all NA, early vote is anti-FF7 - very simple. You can't extrapolate based on that.

No way Missingo wins a day match - he'd be very lucky to win an hour. Going from 54-46'd in the morning to to cutting votes in the ASV? Unlikely. Sephiroth is not Magus or Kefka here. Even if he won an hour, it wouldn't be by much, the the ASV is only 2-3 hours. The rest of the match would be all Sephiroth.

MN might finish a day match with a higher % than he'll end with here, but that's questionable, because the extra 20K-30K votes would reduce the impact of the FF7 anti-votes a ton.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/12/2010 5:08:59 AM | message detail
No way Missingo wins a day match - he'd be very lucky to win an hour. Going from 54-46'd in the morning to to cutting votes in the ASV? Unlikely.

...you really don't see the flaw in your logic there?

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red sox 777 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:09:38 AM | message detail
TRE pointed out last night that Missingno got very similar percentages in the two halves of the vote-in poll; the day was better by 0.25% or something tiny like that.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi
charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:14:30 AM | message detail
A problem is that several people couldn't vote in the day because they already voted at night. So that brings back Missingno's power hour people (more diluted through out the match though) and Sephiroth's night vote people.

Then again some people think night/day changes so much that Sora could have won against Bowser at night.
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/12/2010 5:14:34 AM | message detail
So if we assume a relatively linear MissingNo. and day Crono (Sunday though) is worth 47% on Night Sephiroth, what does this say about a Snake/Sephy day match?
Also, how much more will this add to anti-Sephiroth hate votes?
charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:15:08 AM | message detail
*at day
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
red sox 777 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:17:21 AM | message detail
That is true, yes. And here we have a case where Missingno may only need a 1% swing to make it close enough for the ralliers to pounce- that's possible.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi
red sox 777 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:21:12 AM | message detail
I don't think the hate votes are really going to matter in Snake/Seph. Seph gets hate votes in every match, and nowadays Snake has become a hated character too. Think of it from the casual voter's perspective. They saw Snake beat Sephiroth in 2006 and 2008. The last time Sephiroth has had a major contest victory, it was in round 3 against Mario in 2007. The last time Sephiroth has had any endgame success (the most visible part of the contest) was in 2005. Snake is the defending runner-up.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi
creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 5:21:27 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #1057
A problem is that several people couldn't vote in the day because they already voted at night. So that brings back Missingno's power hour people (more diluted through out the match though) and Sephiroth's night vote people.

Then again some people think night/day changes so much that Sora could have won against Bowser at night.


I originally thought Sora could've won against Bowser, but I conceded to who I was debating with - Leon I think - that he was probably right. I thought that because we had data which indicated Sora's was horribly horribly unbalanced 12-hour wise. But, this contest has diluted ASV, which I had forgotten about. I think Sora would've probably gotten like 48.5%-49% in a day match against Bowser now.

Sephiroth is pretty much tooling Missingo with the morning vote here, which isn't a surprise. To think MN would win a day match is pretty outrageous to me. I don't quite understand how one would think this.
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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 5:24:30 AM | message detail
I don't think Snake hate cancels out Sephiroth hate. FF7 is always hated the worst.

Snake won't win, especially since it's a day match. And the day match probably won't result in the ridiculous trends we see in FF7 night matches, since the anti-votes are more spread out throughout the day. But in a Snake vs. Sephiroth night match I think we'd still see a typical FF7 rise to heaven scenario.
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vcharon | Posted 3/12/2010 5:25:33 AM | message detail
The problem when trying look take anything from these two matches is that it isn't Pokemon vs. Snake/Sephiroth.

One of the characters in question is Pikachu. This is the same Pikachu that looked very unimpressive against Shepard. The same Pikachu, that even by true Pokemon fans, is loathed. It has long been a beacon of anti-votes, and I believe we saw that against Shepard. As for his performance against Snake, it was likely a case of a really bad image for Snake and some other factors. It's pretty bizarre really.

You can't really claim Missingno. is just Pokemon's strongest entry when it's clearly a lot more than that. It's this contest's big joke, the final joke really. It has a lot more going for it than just Pokemon and everyone knows that. At the end of the day, it's too hard to draw any sort of conclusions about Snake/Sephiroth from their matches this round.
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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 5:26:42 AM | message detail
For instance it would be like the Vincent vs. Sephiroth match I think. Vincent normally gets anti-voted but this is Sephiroth, who's either 1 or 1A in terms of pure loathing by the early vote. Seph hate would put Snake anti-votes to shame! :)
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CP724 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:27:13 AM | message detail
Missingno wouldn't win a day match. Seph has already gone up like 1% in the US since the morning vote started like creativename said it would. He may even finish ahead of him in the US when this match is done..
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kirbyparufo | Posted 3/12/2010 5:27:33 AM | message detail
It's a shame Missingno couldn't win, but it sure seems strong and went on a great run.
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MetricTrout | Posted 3/12/2010 5:28:30 AM | message detail
Well, this sucks. I was hoping for Missingno to at least keep it close enough for a morning rally to make a difference. Oh well, looks like Link wins again.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/12/2010 5:30:26 AM | message detail
Pikachu was unimpressive against Shephard?

Shephard tripled up Ellis. There's only so weak you can make him, and it's hard for anybody to triple another character. Pikachu is probably worth 42-43% on Snake with a normal pic, which either implies that he'd give Squall/Vincent a run for their money, or Snake has fallen below where he was in 2006. Fortunately, we have an excellent chance to find out next round through Squall.
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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 5:30:45 AM | message detail
Seph gained almost 100 votes a couple updates ago. I'm assuming that's gotta be his biggest gain of the match?

He might have a bigger one during the DSV, although I'm not sure how the DSV vote volume compares with the morning vote.
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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 5:32:39 AM | message detail
The whole Pikachu thing is weird. We really don't have a true sense of where he is - if he's a near-elite ala Squall, or just say a Luigi level guy who got the ideal scenario to go buck wild.

At least he has shown he has that buck wild potential - not all characters have that "can overperform any time for random reasons" trait, like Kirby, or Pokemon, or jokes.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:34:00 AM | message detail
This is the same Pikachu that looked very unimpressive against Shepard.

Only to the high expectations to this board. Mass Effect 2 anyone?


The same Pikachu, that even by true Pokemon fans, is loathed.

Pokemon and Pikachu hasn't been hated since 2006. Pikachu may not be the favourite Pokemon among Pokemon fans, but it isn't hated.
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 5:35:03 AM | message detail
Oh, and as for Luigi - how do people think he does there?

If he resists SFF he could break 30%, since Link seems weaker this year (30% on Old Link is probably like 32% on Neo Link I'm guessing). Or he could get worse than tripled.

I'm thinking he'll resist SFF myself and make Link look kinda bad. Not that Link will have any trouble trouncing Cloud in the final though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 5:37:55 AM | message detail
Link getting 70% on Luigi is pretty good, heck Cloud couldn't even get that on Captain Falcon
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/12/2010 5:42:06 AM | message detail
We really comparing Cloud/Falcon to Link/Luigi? I don't usually dismiss things out of hand these days, but that's like pretending SFF doesn't even exist.
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vcharon | Posted 3/12/2010 5:43:07 AM | message detail
Everyone is a bit weaker this year. I'd be shocked if Luigi failed to break 30%.

Still holding out hope for Weegee vs Mah Boi Link with the freeform rules.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/12/2010 6:12:48 AM | message detail
I'll be very disappointed in Link as a Link fanboy if he doesn't break 75%. He's Link, he's supposed to crush Anti-BlowoutFAQs with a wave of Nintendo SFF.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/12/2010 6:13:22 AM | message detail
*wakes up. checks poll*


YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/12/2010 6:15:01 AM | message detail
Well it was fun while it lasted. Plus we got to see ExTha act like a complete ***** about his favorite fictional character losing, and that was fun too :D
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Mumei | Posted 3/12/2010 6:15:20 AM | message detail
I realize that it's been awhile, but Link got 80% on Yoshi in 2004 - after Yoshi got 55% on Luigi.

Obviously, times have changed, and blowouts are increasingly rare, but... if Link can't manage 70% on Luigi, that's pretty sad.

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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 6:17:37 AM | message detail
red, are you going to have a followup to that *awesome* Link/Cloud story? I'd like to be privy to Cloud's discussing MN with Sephiroth and such :) Then the story heats up as MN surprises Seph with his power at the start, before being overwhelmed by Sephiroth's enduring hatred...
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 3/12/2010 6:18:59 AM | message detail
Well, on the plus side, (actually I like Seph), Yoshi's never looked better against Sephiroth!
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 6:19:31 AM | message detail
We really comparing Cloud/Falcon to Link/Luigi? I don't usually dismiss things out of hand these days, but that's like pretending SFF doesn't even exist.

What do you expect Luigi to get on Link before SFF?
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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/12/2010 6:25:32 AM | message detail
Well it was fun while it lasted. Plus we got to see ExTha act like a complete ***** about his favorite fictional character losing, and that was fun too :D

Dammit how come I couldn't make these impressions during Snake/Pikachu

damn you ExTha you win this round
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Denzokuken | Posted 3/12/2010 6:27:19 AM | message detail
What % did Crono get on Missingno? He (and Yoshi!) might actually finish above Snake in the x-stats.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2010 6:38:20 AM | message detail
Match CXII: (14) Big Daddy vs. (10) Tifa Lockheart

Last Round

Big Daddy – 54.36%
Ness – 45.64%

Tifa Lockheart – 61.96%
Gordon Freeman – 38.04%

Analysis

Ending the third round we have a predictable match where the winner will lose in the next round so truly performance doesn’t matter here. Still it would be interesting to get more numbers on Tifa in terms of strength. The last time we’ve got decent numbers on her was all the way back in 2005. Is she a near-elite or has she too taken a step down on the ladder?

Unless a significant amount of more people bought Bioshock 2 over the past week and came to GameFAQs to discuss it Big Daddy is quite likely to finish below the performance of Gordon Freeman. His performance against Ness, while decent when comparing to his previous contest is not decent enough to make him the favourite over Gordon Freeman. Like Jecht Big Daddy was rather lucky in terms of bracket placement and got an easy four-pack to work through.

Tifa has a great chance at doubling Big Daddy, but I think that she might end up just short at that mark. I feel that Tifa is just a step lower compare to Vincent and Squall and while that is in no way bad it is slightly lower than what some people expect her to be ranked as. One thing to look at next contest is to see where Big Daddy ranks with the height of Bioshock 2 gone.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Tifa Lockheart > Ness

charmander6000’s Prediction: Tifa wins, 65.90% - 34.10%

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Character Battle VIII - 149/184 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Tifa
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/12/2010 6:42:28 AM | message detail
^aw yeah, we need Tifa to whoop Big Daddy so Gordon looks better in the X-Stats.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/12/2010 6:43:58 AM | message detail
Is this the biggest vote differences in the contest right?I mean Sephiroth was losing by 620 votes(and not by the first hour)and now he wins by 2.500.Is this a record?
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Mumei | Posted 3/12/2010 6:45:28 AM | message detail
Safer Sephiroth, are you always so excitable? I've only just noticed it today.

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creativename | Posted 3/12/2010 6:45:54 AM | message detail
I think there's a decent chance Big Daddy is stronger than Gordon. Shouldn't be too far off either way I'd guess.
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