GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 870
KingBartz | Posted 3/10/2010 10:45:58 AM | message detail |
The ASV is diluted this year and no non-KH character has really impressed with it The ASV is only diluted this year because it's 12-hour matches. If it were 24 hours we would see the same trends as previous years. --- Contest bracket status: ELIMINATED |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/10/2010 10:45:58 AM | message detail |
Wow, did not expect Ryu to be getting a ticket to the division finals. Cool! He only needed to win one match, which was against Dante. Balthier is weak and Dante has defeated Leon three times in the past and I see no reason to believe RE5 boosted him. Defeating Dante was possible, but he was the underdog in that match. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 133/168 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Ryu |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/10/2010 10:47:21 AM | message detail |
If anyone is wondering we are getting an average of roughly 25k votes extra in day matches then we would have normally. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 133/168 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Ryu |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 10:49:01 AM | message detail |
I just checked Samus' last 6 24 hour matches: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3304&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3301&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3294&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3280&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3252&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2923&num=4 Quite surprisingly to me, Samus is actually extremely 24-hour neutral. She barely budged at all from her noon % in 5 of the 6 matches - and in fact was higher at noon in 4 of the 6 matches. The only match where she moved from noon to the finish was the Cloud/Link/Samus/Sephiroth match, where she ended up way lower than where she was at noon. I don't know how much to take out of that SFF-laden match - that would imply a night match is a huge handicap for Cloud against Samus of all things, which I don't buy. But the rest of the data does go to show you how your intuition can be horribly wrong - I had always intuitively thought that Samus would've been much stronger during the 2nd 12 hours, like Link is. But, she's not, for some reason. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
paulg235 | Posted 3/10/2010 10:49:38 AM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #281 I support this character being the guru nomination. --- The Gamer In Me "paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane |
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 3/10/2010 10:54:56 AM | message detail |
He
only needed to win one match, which was against Dante. Balthier is weak
and Dante has defeated Leon three times in the past and I see no reason
to believe RE5 boosted him. Defeating Dante was possible, but he was
the underdog in that match. Yeah, this is true. I guess I just always thought Resident Evil/DMC/Street Fighter all had some sort of rock-paper-scissors relationship in terms of fanbase. --- Elephant Talk: A New Kind Of Music Blog! http://elephantmusictalk.blogspot.com/ |
Japago | Posted 3/10/2010 10:55:23 AM | message detail |
It
will be interesting to see where Ryu ends up on Leon. Ryu can't get as
strong as he is now with T vs C and SSFIV on the horizon. He'll
probably deboost from this next year. If Leon ends up within a certain
range, I might take him to beat Ryu next year. But as of now, it looks
like Ryu will be comfortably above Leon enough. For the record, Dante
went from beating Leon with 56% when he had RE2 Leon (albeit Dante also
had a bad pic) to beating him with 52% in 08 in round 2 with normal
face pics. --- -Heals severely dry skin -18 hour moisturization -Fragrance free -With Vitamin E |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/10/2010 10:55:27 AM | message detail |
Ryu
is tearing into Leon right now. I guess pictures affect the board vote
less since it is likely that the board is familiar with both characters. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 133/168 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Ryu |
ZFS | Posted 3/10/2010 11:02:56 AM | message detail |
Ryu making the division finals. Good contest! --- study the past if you would define the future |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:06:36 AM | message detail |
To
get some meaningful data out of the Cloud/Samus/Link/Sephiroth match, I
calculated FF7 vs. Nintendo - in the first 12 hours ("night"), FF7 got
43.78%, and in the second 12 hours they got 44.20%. FF7's ASV has likely declined slightly since then, but, Samus doesn't really seem to have much of an ASV which I guess is why she's at Dante levels of neutrality. Very surprisingly to me that out of all the characters I've analyzed in terms of 12-hour trends, Samus is one of the two most neutral. As for why Samus tanked in the 2nd 12 hours of that match, it looks like Link and Sephiroth's ASVs just ate up all her %age. Cloud didn't move from noon. Normally Cloud would increase from noon, but of course Link was there, and he's just a post-noon beast. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/10/2010 11:07:54 AM | message detail |
Ryu rolling, and Cali is leading the way. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3837®ion=USXCA --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/10/2010 11:08:10 AM | message detail |
I
think Falcon probably would do better in a day match simply because day
matches have a smaller portion of votes coming from Europe and a higher
percentage coming from America, if I'm not mistaken. Falcon got 32.41%
in America, as opposed to 27.17% in Europe. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/10/2010 11:08:40 AM | message detail |
Ryu making the sweet 16, best contest ever! --- Currently 38th on the CBVIII Leaderboard ^_^ Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/10/2010 11:09:21 AM | message detail |
Man, I can't wait to see what kind of numbers Ryu puts up against Cloud in California! --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/10/2010 11:10:08 AM | message detail |
From: TheKoolAidShoto | #313 I preferred Ryu's 2007 run, mostly because I called it correctly and partially because it was more unexpected than this was. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/10/2010 11:12:50 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #315 Oh right, where he redeemed himself from getting whooped by Bowser by beating him twice and even finishing ahead of Auron(thanks Cloud!). I particularly like this contest because of all my silly upsets, Ryu > Dante was the one I believed in the most. Honestly, I suck ass at Street Fighter, but I will always support Ryu ^_^ --- OH YEAH |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/10/2010 11:15:26 AM | message detail |
I
love Ryu, too! I almost always vote for him. The Balthier match was
like the only time he's been put against a character I like more than
him. I had Dante in my bracket and argued for him, but I wanted Ryu to
win! Same with Sora/Bowser. --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
ZFS | Posted 3/10/2010 11:16:46 AM | message detail |
Ryu
> Dante / Leon was probably the best 'upset' I've called in a
contest in a while. Felt good getting that one right after how favored
Dante was to win! --- study the past if you would define the future |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/10/2010 11:17:36 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #317 In that case, your Board 8 wiki is woefully out of date! 11. Balthier Bunansa (Final Fantasy XII) - I consider this guy to be the video game equivalent of Han Solo. He’s just so smooth and unflappable, and I love the “Leading man” gimmick. Plus, his relationship with his father was one of the best relationships Square has ever done. 10. Ryu (Street Fighter) - The standard for all fighting game characters, and the standard, uhhh…standard fighting game character. Despite being seemingly average all-around, I really enjoy playing as Ryu. Admittedly, he’s one-dimensional, but I like his role as the wandering warrior who only cares about the fight. --- Currently 38th on the CBVIII Leaderboard ^_^ Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/10/2010 11:17:55 AM | message detail |
Yeah, that thing is like 2 years old! --- Squall Leonhart is the worst Final Fantasy character ever created. |
Japago | Posted 3/10/2010 11:18:14 AM | message detail |
I
played a lot of SF2 when I was younger, so it is kind of nice seeing
him do well. DMC is my favorite franchise today, so I can't be all that
happy for him. I really think Dante would have beaten Ryu if it weren't for the fact that Ryu had a game come out in the beginning of the contest and another game coming out in a few months. Heck, Dante hasn't had anything in 2 years. I usually hate how many rematches there are every year, but I really want Dante/Ryu 3. --- -Heals severely dry skin -18 hour moisturization -Fragrance free -With Vitamin E |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/10/2010 11:19:44 AM | message detail |
Ryu/Dante
are both in my top 5 favorite characters, so I hate voting against
either one. And then they would to fight the best RE character in Leon! Seriously through, why does Leon keep get matched-up with Capcom badasses >_> --- Currently 38th on the CBVIII Leaderboard ^_^ Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/10/2010 11:28:48 AM | message detail |
Ryu gets to face a new NN member..... And will of course get exactly 42% on him. --- Q: How do you find Carnegie Hall? A: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:28:49 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #1552 This is just my guess and I could be wrong, but I think that in a day match he gets less than 32.41% in NA because of anti-vote dilution. Could be wrong due to the ASV, but of course, that's countered by the 12-3 DSV and FF7's good SNV. Anyway, we've seen before that trying to judge trends by geolocation is not very accurate, it's highly hit and miss. I forgot though about the ASV dilution which hochi mentioned earlier. Going from 28.50% morning vote to 33% hours with the ASV is a massive massive jump. I think Smash and KH could actually make a jump like that (though I haven't checked if they ever actually have), but, if the ASV is diluted they certainly aren't getting 34% hours, and incredibly doubtful they'd see 33% hours. Cloud's ASV isn't great but he's far from Kefka. ...OK, I was curious and I just had to check. In the Fox/Sora/Chris/Tim match, Fox went from 31.58% from 7-9am to 32.15% from 3-6pm. Against non-Sora competition he went from 51.51% to 52.94%. Could probably find a bigger jump than that though, although this does show how hard it is to jump as compared to the morning vote at least sometimes even for a Smash character. Because it requires you to suck at the morning vote and be great at the ASV, while your opponent is the opposite. Can someone do this type of analysis for another Smash character? I'm curious to see what the biggest morning vote to ASV vote jump we can find. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:33:19 AM | message detail |
From: TheKoolAidShoto | #1556 While I'm much more of a Ken guy, this is how I felt as well. I was just freakin' confused to even learn that it was an upset pre-contest, it baffled me at the time. Just before the actual match I looked at their results and understood better, but still thought it was a tossup, and Dante being the big favorite never made sense to me even then. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/10/2010 11:36:15 AM | message detail |
As
a person who took Ryu Dante had almost everything going for him before
the match. The biggest reason I took Ryu was the same that I took
Yoshi, it just felt right. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 133/168 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Ryu |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 3/10/2010 11:37:13 AM | message detail |
Well
me, being the big dumbass I am, basically said "Ryu already beat Dante
back in '03 LOLOL" and that was that. Glad that worked out! --- yep |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:45:45 AM | message detail |
I
checked the Link/Cloud/Snake/Crono match, since Link has Smash-like
trends with the great ASV (probably not as quite exaggerated as Smash,
but not far). In that match Link jumps from 34.70% from 7-9 to 36.35%
from 3-6. Cloud jumps from 25.59% morning to 26.92% ASV. Link actually
goes down by a trivial amount relative to Cloud, as he gets
57.55% on Cloud in the morning and 57.45% in the ASV - essentially
equal. And this was more recent, in 2008. Considering he only got 28.50% in the morning, Falcon would've been very very lucky just to get a 31% hour against Cloud. Pretty much no way he even gets a 32% hour with the ASV, it really seems out of the question. Fun analysis though :) --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Japago | Posted 3/10/2010 11:52:30 AM | message detail |
What
do you guys have as a target for Ryu to get on Cloud? He had 2 matches
with Cloud in 07, neither of them are good to use. I was hoping to see
how much he had increased this year, and how much popularity he
hopefully had to lose next year. --- -Heals severely dry skin -18 hour moisturization -Fragrance free -With Vitamin E |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:53:04 AM | message detail |
Oh
and yeah - the whole night match is a big handicap for Samus against
Cloud thing is completely out the window. It's simply not true. Minor handicap perhaps, but...even that's becoming doubtful. It really could hurt Cloud more. That surprises me a bit, although it's not shocking. At least Cloud might break 70% some point during the dead vote though :) I do think that Missingo is at a disadvantage in the night match against Seph, because although we've never seen his night vote, comparing his ASV to his DSV I'm assuming he's more of a second 12-hour guy. But, since that match will only have 55K-60K votes (anything above 55K is probably due to Missingo), and Missingo will be heavily rallied/stuff...it's probably not quite as big an edge for Sephiroth as it looks. I'm rooting for Sephiroth so I'm hoping it's not close enough to matter. But he can't rely on the night match to bring him victory. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/10/2010 11:53:31 AM | message detail |
I see Ryu getting somewhere between 33 and 35% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 133/168 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Ryu |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/10/2010 11:54:37 AM | message detail |
Should I remove the outer glow from the two character names? http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/6818/sephytifa.jpg I mean yeah it looks a little weird, but just the text by itself looks worse. --- Ulti is the authority on birth control because his shirt has the power to impregnate any woman that looks at it for too long. -TimJab |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:56:26 AM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #1651 Agreed. He couldn't even break 29% on Cloud with Auron in the poll, but, Ryu seems stronger, and Cloud seems very clearly weaker. I think Ryu avoids the doubling. Who's dropped more in strength: Link or Cloud? Both have gone down maybe 2% in strength I think. I'd say Cloud has probably dropped very slightly more. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:56:57 AM | message detail |
Pic looks fine to me as is. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/10/2010 11:57:07 AM | message detail |
Alrighty. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.· Writhe in my cage of torment, my friend. |
paulg235 | Posted 3/10/2010 11:57:22 AM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #332 Nah, it looks pretty cool. --- The Gamer In Me My Signature's broken, just like your front door. |
creativename | Posted 3/10/2010 11:57:30 AM | message detail |
Actually Sephiroth seems a bit dark and hard to see, but I don't know if you can do anything about that. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Mumei | Posted 3/10/2010 11:58:29 AM | message detail |
I
checked the Link/Cloud/Snake/Crono match, since Link has Smash-like
trends with the great ASV (probably not as quite exaggerated as Smash,
but not far). In that match Link jumps from 34.70% from 7-9 to 36.35%
from 3-6. Cloud jumps from 25.59% morning to 26.92% ASV. Link actually
goes down by a trivial amount relative to Cloud, as he gets 57.55% on
Cloud in the morning and 57.45% in the ASV - essentially equal. And
this was more recent, in 2008. Considering he only got 28.50% in the morning, Falcon would've been very very lucky just to get a 31% hour against Cloud. Pretty much no way he even gets a 32% hour with the ASV, it really seems out of the question. Fun analysis though :) The Link / Cloud / Sephiroth / Snake match from the 2006 Battle Royal might work for the Morning / ASV disparity, as well; Link had 4,007 out of 9,222 votes (43.45%) during the 7 - 9 period and 11,129 of 24,543 during the 3 - 6 (45.34%) period. --- "Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/10/2010 11:59:40 AM | message detail |
From: creativename | #337 Almost everything involving in-movie Seph screens are dark beyond belief. I actually brightened his half. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.· http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
GrapefruitKing | Posted 3/10/2010 12:17:13 PM | message detail |
what an awful ASV so far for Ryu --- Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 12th Today's prediction: Ryu - 56.19% Status: Great |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/10/2010 12:18:16 PM | message detail |
Ryu losing the early ASV? save_us.Cali --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 133/168 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Ryu |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/10/2010 12:21:33 PM | message detail |
Wow,
this proves that RE4 really is a different entity from the rest of the
series. There is no way that Jill/Chris/Wesker would be taking this ASV
from Ryu. One of those guys really needs to get in the next Smash game.
--- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
voltch | Posted 3/10/2010 12:27:13 PM | message detail |
How do you win any voting block with that pic? RE6 please have Leon and be godly, capcom just give all your bases to mikami to get him back for one last hurrah, then Leon might actually be able to hang around with the top tier guys of his company. --- Shakes Fist! |
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/10/2010 12:28:37 PM | message detail |
Unfortunately
RE5 was the final RE game with the traditional heroes.RE6 will be a
reboot and that means completely new characters...I like the old ones
better but hey they decide. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/10/2010 12:30:22 PM | message detail |
Nothing about RE6 is etched in stone yet; it may not have a new cast. Also, it's still years away according to Capcom. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/10/2010 12:33:40 PM | message detail |
How do you win any voting block with that pic? Good question. That pic's worse than just about every match pic I ever saw, and if you ask me, it really gives Solid **** a run for its money. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 3/10/2010 12:33:44 PM | message detail |
All
things considered, Leon is doing pretty well in spite of that picture.
I'm glad - after all, this helps Vault Boy's reputation as well! --- NEWCOMERS WHO WOULD BE GREAT ADDITIONS TO CBIX: Sheep Man, K.K. Slider, Dick Gumshoe, Jimmy T., Bill Rizer, Doc Louis |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/10/2010 12:35:26 PM | message detail |
The bigger question is, how in the world do you get a lead AT ALL with that pic? --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/10/2010 12:39:19 PM | message detail |
So Leon is the strongest RE character? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
charmander6000 | Posted 3/10/2010 12:40:52 PM | message detail |
Before this contest he was, but even after seeing Jill and Chris I think that he will remain the strongest one. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 133/168 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Ryu |
