GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 868

creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:01:18 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #955
Bowser would probably be up 7000 votes or so by the time we hit the ASV, if not more. Do you really think Sora would start cutting around that time with the ASV? Yes, I understand you cut all that out by starting the poll at noon, but the point is that Bowser was dominating the poll so thoroughly that I just don't see Sora turning it around that easily.

I don't think you can just look at first 12 hours Sora vs. second 12 hours Sora, slap 5% on him, and declare him a favorite.


I'm talking about a day match. Obviously he loses a 24 hour match, and it's not close whatsoever.

And slapping 5% on Sora 2nd twelve hour vs. 1st 12 hour normal.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:02:09 AM | message detail
1)Bowser
8)Mewtwo

5)Zero
4)Vivi

3)Dante
6)Sub-Zero

7)Alucard
2)Zelda


1)Bowser
5)Zero

3)Dante
7)Alucard


1)Bowser
3)Dante


1)Bowser

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red sox 777 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:02:12 AM | message detail
Look at the Squall/Sora match last year. Squall got a 3500+ lead while the two of them were combining for 30% of the vote. That would be a 10,000+ vote lead in 1v1. Yet Sora still cut 1500+ with the ASV, which translates to 4,500+ in 1v1. That was really a very astonishing turnaround, and while Bowser is better at the day vote than Squall, that really shows you the power of Sora's ASV.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/8/2010 10:02:27 AM | message detail
Is it just me or is this topic broken?
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LOLContests | Posted 3/8/2010 10:02:35 AM | message detail
Does anyone know all the entrants who lost while one of their games was Number 1?

The only one I know off the top of my head is Link in 2003, although I think these others are possibilities:

2002:
Tidus (Final Fantasy X)
Mario (Super Mario Sunshine)

2003:
Pikachu (Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire)
Link (Soul Calibur GCN)

Sp2004: Don't think any were recent enough
2004: I actually remember paying attention the the Top FAQS around this time, and they were Doom 3, ToS, and Star Ocean 3 during the contest. Can't remember what others snuck in, but those were the big ones.
Viewtiful Joe (Viewtiful Joe PS2) is possible though

Sp2005*:
Officer Tenpenny (Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas

2005:
Carl Johnson (GTA: San Andreas)
Vincent Valentine (FFVII)
Cloud Strife (FFVII)
Sephiroth (FFVII)
-Can't quite remember what the Advent Children leak did to the FAQ list.

2006:
Kingdom Hearts (Kingdom Hearts II)

Fall 2006:
Can't remember what was No. 1 before FFXII.

2007:
Any of the Pokemanz (Pokemon Diamond/Pearl)
The Orange Box (Gordon Freeman)

2008:
Dunno. Maybe Knuckles and that Sonic RPG.

2009:
Street Fighter IV and Fallout 3 are the only possibilities I see.

*Resident Evil 4 GCN never hit #1, IIRC.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/8/2010 10:02:38 AM | message detail
I don't think Sora's ASV is going to be as strong in a 12 hour format anyway just because you lose certain timeframes of the poll, too.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:02:45 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #204
Is it just me or is this topic broken?


Not just you.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:03:00 AM | message detail
Did KP just take Alucard over Zelda?
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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:03:00 AM | message detail
If you want to Bowser should be the favorite, I'll concede. It's close enough I have no problem calling Boswer the favorite. But it'd be worthy of discussion.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:03:28 AM | message detail
Wait I thought that was Midna, oops

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CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:03:58 AM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #205
2008:
Dunno. Maybe Knuckles and that Sonic RPG.


Arthas lost his 2nd round match while WoW was #1.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:04:12 AM | message detail
Plus in a night match, who knows ! 28%+ on Link don't mess

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Draco1214 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:04:15 AM | message detail
Bowser
Mewtwo
Zero
Vivi
Dante
Sub-Zero
Alucard
Zelda

Bowser
Zero
Dante
Zelda

Bowser
Zelda

Bowser
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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:04:37 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #1006
I don't think Sora's ASV is going to be as strong in a 12 hour format anyway just because you lose certain timeframes of the poll, too.


I'm not sure what you mean - what timeframes?

If you're talking about the diluted ASV this year, then yes that could come into play. Although KH and Char haven't really had a problem with that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/8/2010 10:05:18 AM | message detail
Yeah, their day votes are so good that they still look good despite having the ASV diluted. I still think it'd affect Sora enough to where he wouldn't win.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:05:55 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3833&region=USXWY

man

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red sox 777 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:06:16 AM | message detail
I don't think Sora's ASV is going to be as strong in a 12 hour format anyway just because you lose certain timeframes of the poll, too.

Yeah, I agree with this. The day/night differences here aren't going to be as big as in a 24-hour match, because day voters can vote at night, and night voters can vote in the day.
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paulg235 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:06:48 AM | message detail
Bowser > Mewtwo
Vivi < Zero
Dante > Sub-Zero
Zelda > Alucard

Zelda > Bowser
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/8/2010 10:07:04 AM | message detail
Bowser
Mewtwo
Zero
Vivi
Dante
Sub-Zero
Alucard
Zelda

then

Bowser
Vivi
Dante
ALUCARD

then

Bowser
Dante

uhhh

Dante?
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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:08:59 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #1055
Yeah, their day votes are so good that they still look good despite having the ASV diluted. I still think it'd affect Sora enough to where he wouldn't win.


Very possible, perhaps even likely.

Would've been a fun match though. Bowser would've been rolling along and then wham, danger signs.

I'm not sure who to root for in Bowser vs. Charizard. I love Bowser, but Mario/Bowser II?

I actually think Bowser would do much better this year, I think he might even escape the doubling - maybe. But he'd still get SFFed, and the match would tell us nothing, and be boring.

Mario/Char is a potentially enjoyable match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/8/2010 10:09:56 AM | message detail
I wouldn't mind seeing Mario/Charizard for the sake of "cleaner stats" and to see just how strong Charizard really is, but I don't think there'd be much more to enjoy about it than that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/8/2010 10:10:43 AM | message detail
Looks like the Block's trying its hardest to gain some percentage before the ASV comes!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:11:53 AM | message detail
Canada is pretty much the only region keeping Block alive right now. Even Europe and Asia are going for the Zard.

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Kotetsu534 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:12:52 AM | message detail
I was pretty ambivalent about Charizard when he was in the NRT, but after nominating him it's natural for me to hope he does well. Making the elite eight would constitute well!

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CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:13:44 AM | message detail
Ugh, like 3 days till we get the next good match. We shouldn't have so many straight boring matches in the 3rd round!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/8/2010 10:13:46 AM | message detail
The last thing The Plan needs is "cleaner stats."
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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:13:50 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #1101
I wouldn't mind seeing Mario/Charizard for the sake of "cleaner stats" and to see just how strong Charizard really is, but I don't think there'd be much more to enjoy about it than that.


Charizard could bandwagon himself into a Kirby-like overperformance. Which at best would mean maybe approaching 45%, but a match doesn't have to be close to be somewhat entertaining. Humiliating underperformances can be fun too!

Mario/Bowser II is just a pretty horrid match for this late in the contest though.

But hey, who knows. Maybe Mega Man will make Mario/Bowser discussion moot! :o)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:14:46 AM | message detail
But hey, who knows. Maybe Mega Man will make Mario/Bowser discussion moot! :o)

Vote Mega Man and Charizard for better results and better X-stats!

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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:14:55 AM | message detail
Leon, how'd you get that sig?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:15:49 AM | message detail
Oh, and if MM beats Mario and Charizard beats Bowser than I would be a bit wary of Charizard>Mega Man. That's a day match, right?

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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:16:13 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #1108
But hey, who knows. Maybe Mega Man will make Mario/Bowser discussion moot! :o)

Vote Mega Man and Charizard for better results and better X-stats!


Or how about vote Mega Man just because Mega Man>Mario would be incredibly awesome!

Still would be very surprised to see that, but I do think Mega can break 47.50%.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:17:41 AM | message detail
If MM beats Mario, he'll be out of reach of Charizard day or night barring a massive HG/SS release boost. MM is fairly balanced between the two halves of the poll.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:17:46 AM | message detail
I think we're underrating just how big a scare MM can give Mario. Assuming no wonky SFF thing happens (which I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet on it) 74% on ike vs. 72% on Ryu Hayabusa. The former had SFF, the latter had a pic advantage.

Which is more impressive? It's also a night match, which definitely favors the Blue Bomber by a good bit.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/8/2010 10:17:48 AM | message detail
Ugh, like 3 days till we get the next good match. We shouldn't have so many straight boring matches in the 3rd round!

Ugh indeed. *expects the board to be dead until the next good match*
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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:17:59 AM | message detail
If Mega beat Mario, he'd have tons of momentum himself, arguably more than Char.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:19:12 AM | message detail
Pokemon fans, how big is HG/SS? As I understand it, it's not actually a new title, so at first glance I wouldn't expect it to equal SMS or TP in effect, but what do you think?

Basically every single Pokemon fan should be interested in it, problem is those people were already likely to vote Charizard anyways. The big difference would be the large influx of casual Pokemon fans (that don't always come to GameFAQs every day) would have gotten the game and head to GameFAQs to ask for help on a game that they have already beaten.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/8/2010 10:20:57 AM | message detail
At least we'll get four interesting matches in a row.

Leon/Ryu - How high can Ryu go / Stats sings a lament for poor Mr. Kennedy =(
Snake/Pikachu - How high can Pika go / Stats curses all things Pokemon
Auron/Squall - This one's gotten pretty debated in the last couple of weeks
Seph/Missingno - SHOWDOWN in Round 3

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creativename | Posted 3/8/2010 10:22:31 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #1153
I think we're underrating just how big a scare MM can give Mario. Assuming no wonky SFF thing happens (which I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet on it) 74% on ike vs. 72% on Ryu Hayabusa. The former had SFF, the latter had a pic advantage.

Which is more impressive? It's also a night match, which definitely favors the Blue Bomber by a good bit.


Does the night match really matter there? Both seem pretty balanced 12-hour wise. Looking at the Mario/MMX trends -

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3293&num=4

From this one the night would actually seem to favor Mario by a trivial amount.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3300&num=4

Here the night favors MMX, but not by very much.

But yeah, if there's no SFF this could be a 51/49 affair.

The Power Hours could be big - if Mega has any sort of bandwagon, and the match is close, the early voters could conceivably give him the unlikely victory.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:23:12 AM | message detail
Man, Red is the best argument for why fan art should be allowed in these things.

http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/6839/a4ef0754199630a409b598c.jpg

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/8/2010 10:23:57 AM | message detail
Seph/Missingno - SHOWDOWN in Round 3

More like it won't be close past the freeze!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:24:46 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3279&num=4

Only match where X led Mario, for the first 9 hours 45 minutes. After that...yeah.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:26:27 AM | message detail
Oh, and I believe that's the daylight savings time match? Which should theoretically cut Mario's morning vote - his best time - by one hour. That could be key.

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charmander6000 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:28:00 AM | message detail
Isn't the saying you lose an hour of sleep?

Advantage Mario.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/8/2010 10:29:10 AM | message detail
No, because Daylight Savings will affect people who vote in the mornings much more than those who vote in the 4 Mega Man Power Hours.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/8/2010 10:30:00 AM | message detail
Ah, I forgot Mario/MM was a night match. Mega Man will probably look fine - 55/45 or something thereabouts.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/8/2010 10:30:09 AM | message detail
Plus it's a weekend match. People are going to sleep in to catch up on that hour they missed, and sleep right through the match!

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charmander6000 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:32:34 AM | message detail
To be more serious I believe that the transition between night and morning will be a hybrid of the two.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/8/2010 10:33:12 AM | message detail
Other way around. It's a Saturday night anyway so people just stay up as late as usual and then sleeo in. Someone who would be up that late anyway will stay up that late. And it doesn't affect anywhere but America, which I think also favors Mega Man.
Bottom line: an 11-hour match favors Mega Man and will really hurt Mario's morning vote.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/8/2010 10:34:01 AM | message detail
I wonder if we can convince Bacon to extend the match to a twelfth hour if Mario is losing.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/8/2010 10:35:06 AM | message detail
And I think you are overrating the overall effect of the match other than lower vote totals unless you think Mario wins with around 50.50% or something.
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