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I would give Yoshi roughly 35% on Sephiroth. The only way Missingno wins that match is if a bandwagon has formed. For those hoping that Sephiroth's bad start would give Missingno supporters hope have to realize that Missingno's board vote is not the strongest and while Sephiroth loses the board vote to pretty much everything you still have to remember that he's usually still in the lead after five minutes.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 117/144 - Today's Winners: Mario and Mega Man

Here's hoping that Mega Man stays above 72% for the next two hours.

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i dunno

Mega Man has a pretty good second night vote.

For fun keeping Hayabusa constant between Snake and Mega Man, Solid Snake is expected to get 56.60% on Mega Man.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 117/144 - Today's Winners: Mario and Mega Man

I'm actually thinking that Hochi was right to some extent, and that Yoshi rSFFed MissingNo. a little. But if he's only worth 35% on Sephiroth to begin with, I don't think there was anywhere near enough rSFF in that match to put MissingNo. near Sephiroth. If we can find a way to put Yoshi at 40% or higher (which the more I think of it the more I realize is absolutely ridiculous), then only minimal bandwagonning would be required for MissingNo. > Sephiroth.
I honestly don't care who wins so much, I just want it to be an amazing, close match and I would love it if Crono ended up above Sephiroth in the final x-stats (so I guess I am rooting for the glitch).

It'll just take a massive amount of nonlinearity from Missingno, that's all.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

Match CIII: (1) Sora vs. (4) Bowser

Last Round

Sora – 67.75%
Laharl – 32.25%

Kefka – 38.32%
Bowser – 61.68%

Analysis

The match may have had some hype pre-contest, but the majority of it came from the previous round. A lot of people expected more from Sora while the rest are quick to dismiss Bowser’s performance against Kefka as an over performance. I’ve always thought this match would be close, but I still maintain that Sora should be the favourite.

The main thing holding Sora back was his performance against Laharl last round. When you only double a character where you should be almost tripling him warning flags are usually raised. Given the performances of Prinny and Laharl there is a chance that Disgaea may have gained popularity, most likely from the site shift. Remember Ike had a bad performance against Prinny, but was able to defeat Zidane in a match. We also have to remember that Midna would struggle to break 56% on Laharl which pre-contest is something no one would pick.

The other comparison we could make is that Frog and Midna had a match against each other in 2007. Frog was able to defeat Midna in that match and consider that the two had similar performances against Bowser and Sora it would seem on paper Bowser would be the favourite. Problem is that Samus was also in that poll which likely held Midna back given that she was able to go even with Mewtwo in the next contest and that Bowser defeated Frog in a day match and probably looked a lot better than he should have,

I’m not saying that Bowser doesn’t have a chance at winning, but I am really surprised at the amount of people that jumped ship since the contest had begun. The main strike against Sora seems to be that other Kingdom Hearts characters are not performing as well as the board thought and it is that collective weakness that would be the likely downfall of Sora.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sora > Bowser

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sora wins, 54.13% - 45.87%

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Character Battle VIII - 117/144 - Today's Winners: Mario and Mega Man

That's what I was saying. But if Yoshi only gets 35% on Sephiroth then I don't think even non-linearity can make that up. But if we assume Crono still 55/45s Vincent (I know, no one assumes that) we can put Crono at between 41 and 42 on Sephiroth. So MissingNo. only needs to gain 8% in bandwagon or anti-votes to make this a match. Still probably not happening, especially because bandwagonning will not be easy at all in a night match.
Or we can assume that Sephy actually SFFed the stuffing out of Vincent and that Vincent shoud have got 47%, which directly puts Yoshi > Sephiroth. I like this theory best. Most of all because that means we can pretend Epona > Cloud.

Cmon Mega Man, get .01 more percent and hold it then I get first in the oracle!
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

I am going to be shocked if Sora loses here, btw. You guys are getting too obsessed with the potential upset here. Bowser has never been near Sora since KH2 released, so why would he magically beat him now?
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

I think it's because most people think Frog would probably beat Laharl with more than 55%
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

From: The n00b Avenger | #110
I think it's because most people think Frog would probably beat Laharl with more than 55%

Laharl's going to get at least 40% on Frog and Kefka in the stats, whether you like it or not!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Oh darn, tonight is Sora/Bowser. :\ Crap, I thought it was still a day or two away. Between this and Charizard/L-Block, I think my bracket is about to take a serious beating...

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CURRENT BRACKET SCORE: 128.
Next worrisome pick: Sora > Bowser

I can't see Sora winning this. He's just looked far more impressive than Bowser the last 3 years.
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

Err, can't see Sora losing this
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

I'm rooting for Sora and I have no idea why. My bracket is literally dead, he's only my 4th-favorite KH character, and I love Bowser.

I think I just have a contest history with him. Seeing him become Mr. Clutch has been too much fun.

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best sig bet EVER

It'll be the closest match of this round though!

Squall Vs. Auron will be second place.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I'm impressed with Mega Man. He has rebounded from previous years and I can't explain why.


Zack and Cid don't look bad at all now. Even Yuna is going to rank ahead of Ryu H in the stats so she doesn't look bad.

In retrospect, I don't know why I took Sora. He's never had an impressive win. He's only been impressive in his losses.

It'll be the closest match of this round though!

Squall Vs. Auron will be second place.

You're crazy. Ryu's going to give us another thriller, just like last round. Sora/Bowser will be closer, but Squall/Auron--sorry, SFF, not buying that it'll be that close.

Also, I don't expect to ever see a blowout in either direction in a Missingno. match.
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CB8 score: 123
Incorrect picks: More than my signature will allow.

Man, if Ryu/Leon is close with that pic, I'll be shocked.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

Ew. Yeah, hadn't seen that yet. Leon's going to get squashed.

Speaking of bad sprite rounds, what's the latest projection for the Solid **** Factor? It's a good thing the competitors have more decent pictures in the background, because Pikachu might almost have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle with that sprite.

...That pun was horrible.

On another note, I think I like the match pic for Sephiroth-Missingno. Sephiroth could really pull this off. And if he can't, well...the pic factor also says that Missingno might not be the only one to pull off an upset.
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CB8 score: 123
Incorrect picks: More than my signature will allow.

Leon doesn't manage much better than 45% on Ryu even with a good pick.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Without a pic advantage, I'd give Ryu 55%. WIth that match pic, I'm feeling a 60%ish overperformance
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

Without a pic advantage, I'd give Ryu 55%. WIth that match pic, I'm feeling a 60%ish overperformance

Yeah. Leon's sprite pic is even worse than Solid **** and Elevator Ganon - in fact, that's got to be the worst pic of the contest right there.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Yeah, Solid **** is bad but there are still maybe like, a small percentage of fans that have at least played the original Metal Gear games. How many people have played the game that Leon's sprite is from? >_>
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

On top of the sprite being unrecognizable to his RE4 fans, the sprite itself is from (what's probably) the most obscure Resident Evil game. Plus Ryu looks fantastic in the picture. I wouldn't be surprised by a doubling, though I don't think it will go that high.
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

Goddamn it n00b, stop beating me to the punch
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

There are times when a sprite just shouldn't be used over a later character model, Snake and Leon Kennedy being the prime examples.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Awesome by Mega Man today. One of the best performances all contest. Looks like Cid was just as tough as we'd all thought to begin with.

I was thinking that Mega Man wouldn't break 45% on Mario, but at this point it's looking like he might be able to get within a couple points of that on this year's Link if it were a night match.

I think Mega has a great shot at getting like 47.5%+ on Mario. Can't see him winning but I think he'll look quite respectable, and I think he'll look real good during the 4 Mega Man Power Hours. Also thought he could lead at the freeze even before today.

For tonight, if Sora can pull this off despite every single thing being stacked against him, that'd be an overcoming adversity performance worthy of a champ. Hopefully he somehow does it. He's got a shot but man are things tough for him.
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Remember: Sora was still beating Yoshi at noon, and easily at that!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

The rel question is is Mega Man > MMX more or less than the amount Zelda SFFed Mario in last year's match. Because MMX led Mario for 11 hours, which is exactly how long this match will be.

isn't KH's morning vote at least half-way decent? IE, if he has a lead of like 700 he could hold Bowser off til' noon?
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"I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP

Bowser is going to Ulti-blowing out Sora at the 5 minute mark, no matter who wins.

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http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER

Oh, no way Bowser's going to make a huge comeback if Sora's winning by that much in the morning.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Okay, say like 300 then?
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"I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP

Trends will probably pretty even tonight. There wouldn't be any major shifts until the ASV, by which time the match will be over.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

Mario characters are all morning vote, so Bowser's morning vote will be better than Sora's. If it's that close, it'd be possible.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Ohhhhh, if Mega Man stays put I get my first ever perfect Oracle!

Come on bud, pull it out for me!
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" - trancer1

Sora can easily make a comeback in the deep night. His Asia vote trumps Bowser's by a good bit.

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http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER

Cmon Bowser, the REAL lightning in a bottle! Earthquake in a can!

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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.

Elevator Ganon

Woohoo! :D

Awesome by Mega Man today. One of the best performances all contest. Looks like Cid was just as tough as we'd all thought to begin with.

I'd have to agree. There have been some other performances that have really impressed me - Vincent standing up to Sephiroth, Charizard thrashing The Duke, Jill destroying Niko, etc. - but this is just a downright fantastic performance from Mega Man, and my pick for the best performance thus far. And even though I'm still a little disappointed in Zack's performance, this definitely helps redeem Cid - I think he deserves another shot at this point.

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CURRENT BRACKET SCORE: 128.
Next worrisome pick: Sora > Bowser

The Euro vote could be a problem though. Yoshi actually beat Sora in Europe.

Of course, Sora had to deal with Squall's Euro vote, so that'd be a bit of a problem there. Squall absolutely destroyed that poll in Europe.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

ah **** it. I'm just gonna vote for Bowser and suck it up and deal with being wrong. The sooner we get rid of the KH trash the better.
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"I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP

From: LeonhartFour | #610
Remember: Sora was still beating Yoshi at noon, and easily at that!

Don't think this says much when Yoshi was being LFFed by Fox, and we've seen that Squall and Sora don't seem to LFF each other too much. Squall/Sonic barely changed when Sora was removed.

But hopefully Sora pulls this out of his ass anyway.
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Let's go BOWSAH!

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GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

I'm not feeling good about this, but I may as well support my boy till the end.

*Dearly Beloved gooooooooo*

...so beautiful. ='(
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

For reference:

Sora vs. Yoshi at the 5 minute mark: 24.38% vs. 25.14%, 12 vote lead
Sora vs. Yoshi at the 12-hour mark: 26.65% vs. 23.30%, 2104 vote lead

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best sig bet EVER

Voting for Bowser, especially with a BiS sprite, but expecting Sora to win.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5I16yaEp8o

Everyone should listen to this for the beginning of the match though!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

From: ExThaNemesis | #143
ah **** it. I'm just gonna vote for Bowser and suck it up and deal with being wrong. The sooner we get rid of the KH trash the better.

lol we both know you're bracket voting
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

SHOOOOWWWWTIIIIIMMEE
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