GameFAQs Contests

I'm lightning in a bottle! I'm an earthquake in a can!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, Missingno etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif

Not Mega Man-themed? Lame

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best sig bet EVER

SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT

MEGA MAN
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Shaped like a boot to kick Mario out of the contest!

Megaman isn't shaped like a boot? Who cares?
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

Mega Man can take L-Block's power!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

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hmmmmmmmm

belch
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"A joke format for a joke contest deserves joke winners." -Master Moltar

Fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiighting to saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave

the WORLD

WORLD

WORLD

WORLD
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

.............Beato
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11/15/2009 - Never forget 4th and 2.

Megaman is gonna save Ab Lincoln and get the american vote.
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Shakes Fist!

Because Mega Man is gonna beat Mario and prove he's worth 40% on Link, just like the old days!

Precisely. Although 36% is a lot more reachable for MM, that's still well above 31-32%, and it still gives him a shot of beating Mario.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

YOU GOT: Ninja Star!

http://img.youtube.com/vi/eRlDxDjzx7A/0.jpg

*Screen flashes*

YOU GOT: Rush Jet!
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

you know how broken link is when avoiding a doubling means you are uber strong in a Gamefaqs contest.
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Shakes Fist!

Man, 30% on BL used to be the mark for a near elite back in the day! Link's fallen off since then if anything!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

From: UltimaterializerX | #009
.............Beato

http://calamitousintents.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/64.jpg

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best sig bet EVER

I think it's fine to consider Mega Man > Mario possible, but since it's only really this contest with some sketchy evidence against years of Mario > Mega Man (and you'd have to go back to probably 2003 to find them be relative equals again), that's not an upset I'm banking on. Cid's new, this was the first time we saw Zack one-on-one, and Hayabusa's picture isn't doing any favors...meanwhile, two of Mario's matches should have SFF so it's hard to get a great read. A Big Boss/Zack comparison is probably the best you can do, which says the match is close assuming nothing funny happens...and it wouldn't be unreasonable if it did, thanks to x-factors.

Again, go Mega Man, but I don't like his chances. It's his best chance in a long time since MM10 just came out and he's putting up great numbers thus far, but I'm an old fogey in these topics so I'm skeptical by nature.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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Link's fallen off since then if anything!

just as planned
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!

Don't worry Missingno is going to glitch that Uber and make Link NU.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 117/144 - Today's Winners: Mario and Mega Man

Man, 30% on BL used to be the mark for a near elite back in the day! Link's fallen off since then if anything!

Based on what Megaman's showing us here, Zack was legit, and 30% still is the cutoff for a near-elite!
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

From: KamikazePotato | #015
http://calamitousintents.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/64.jpg

That's like her worst possible picture. Looks like a cross-eyed idiot.
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Every man lives. Not every man truly dies.

(and you'd have to go back to probably 2003 to find them be relative equals again)

2004, unless you think Link/Mega Man was legit.

I don't expect funny business in Mario/Mega Man. He couldn't even pull any funny business against Samus in 2008, and he didn't do it in any of the three matches against X.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

It was on short notice! Google image search can be unreliable!

Note: DON'T look up anything related to Umineko in google anything

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best sig bet EVER

Mario is gonna stomp over Megaman, just like always. I don't know why people think this match proves anything. And please stop using that 4-way as any indication, when there is clearly 3 NINTENDO characters in it to split votes.

I say Mario wins 55-45.
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"As I was walking up the stairs, I met a man who wasn't there, he wasn't there again today, i wish I wish he'd go away."

I don't expect funny business in Mario/Mega Man. He couldn't even pull any funny business against Samus in 2008, and he didn't do it in any of the three matches against X.

1. There was a Link in the way
2. MMX having less Nintendo ties than MM is quite likely considering most of his games weren't even on Nintendo consoles.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 117/144 - Today's Winners: Mario and Mega Man

From: charmander6000 | #024
I don't expect funny business in Mario/Mega Man. He couldn't even pull any funny business against Samus in 2008, and he didn't do it in any of the three matches against X.

1. There was a Link in the way
2. MMX having less Nintendo ties than MM is quite likely considering most of his games weren't even on Nintendo consoles.

1. Didn't stop him in 2006 in the Battle Royale
2. Link appeared to LFF MMX in their last match, unless there's some other reason I'm missing for X to do noticeably worse there
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

From: charmander6000 | #024
I don't expect funny business in Mario/Mega Man. He couldn't even pull any funny business against Samus in 2008, and he didn't do it in any of the three matches against X.

1. There was a Link in the way
2. MMX having less Nintendo ties than MM is quite likely considering most of his games weren't even on Nintendo consoles.

1. Mega Man X's worst match vs. Mario was when Link was in the poll.
2. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2441

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best sig bet EVER

The real reason we shouldn't expect any funny business is that Mario has never done it against anyone except for Samus. Every other character he's ever faced has not produced that effect, so why expect it to happen with Megaman? It still could, and Megaman has more reason to be susceptible to SFF than most, but if they really are close naturally, it'll be hard to turn on the SFF. If Mario's a fair amount stronger naturally, then it'll be easier for him to turn on the SFF boosters too, but that doesn't really affect Megaman's chances of winning, since he's lose in that scenario anyway.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

Chart from the night match:

Time | Mario | Ike | Votes
0:05 | 72.01% | 27.99% | 1197
1:00 | 73.12% | 26.88% | 8768
2:00 | 72.69% | 27.31% | 6052
3:00 | 72.98% | 27.02% | 4393
4:00 | 75.63% | 24.37% | 3488
5:00 | 74.77% | 25.23% | 2834
6:00 | 74.88% | 25.12% | 2655
7:00 | 74.46% | 25.54% | 2580
8:00 | 74.49% | 25.51% | 2838
9:00 | 74.88% | 25.12% | 3567
10:00 | 74.80% | 25.20% | 4539
11:00 | 75.13% | 24.87% | 5047
12:00 | 74.05% | 25.95% | 5060

Once we hit the Euro vote, Mario jumped noticeably and stayed up there.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

I feel as though mm getting close to mario would be a good thing. Honestly, I'm sick of any character being untouchable.. I want to see Crono beating Mario, Samus/Sonic going 50/50, Mario beating cloud, Seph going 50/50 with MM again.
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hmmmmmmmm

Sonic doing ok, Megaman doing very well, the big blue boys are taking the contest by storm.
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Shakes Fist!

The dehype with Cid was acceptable because Cid was an unknown entity--for all we knew, Cid could have been just that bad. But Zack was a beast last year and Hayabusa has...taken out some decent characters?

Wait, has he? ...Hayabusa has actually had some very unfortunate bracket placements, so his record isn't all that great. He debuted with that epic battle against Jill (a midcarder), but then lost to Sora in the next round; followed it up with first-round losses to Zero and Dante, both solid characters--but still by margins that didn't suggest anything special; then 2007 saw him take first over Riku convincingly enough that LFF from Roxas was considered a non-issue (Riku+Roxas was still less than Hayabusa), only for Riku to turn it around once Snake joined the poll in round 2, and...got revenge over Zero in Round 1 in 2008 with a first place finish, only to have a repeat of 2007 when Zero also reversed the round 1 result in round 2 with the help of Snake. All I can conclude is that Hayabusa is probably a low midcarder, and that for reasons that have yet to be adequately explored, he gets SFFed by Snake.

Does this mean Mega can take out Mario? I doubt it. It's tough to get a read on Mario's strength this year, because he's had two SFF battles in the first three rounds and took on Big Boss with his old man pic. Perhaps we should see how the other Mario characters are trending. Luigi...started by taking on a character much like himself (beloved side character) from a lesser Nintendo franchise, then had opponents from two cult games--performance is good, but it's a little tough to tell what to make of it. Yoshi had no real indicators of strength, as Jak is too weak to gauge anything on and Missingno. is too weird. Peach...seemed to overperform against Gordon Freeman, but Gordon is a known choker in these contests. Most of these seem to indicate a slight rise...but then there's Bowser. Bowser's match against Frog went almost exactly how the 2008 x-stats would have predicted, which is disconcerting because Bowser should've stood to gain quite a bit from BIS and NSMBW and the other CT characters looked to have weakened. Then he faced Kefka in a day match and failed to double him, which either means that Kefka is much stronger than we thought or Bowser actually weakened. Luckily, we still have a couple more chances to gauge the state of the franchise. Bowser takes on Sora, and a win would help redeem the Koopa King's lackluster performance thus far. Then, next round Luigi takes on Link, and while a loss is expected, avoiding a doubling or even breaking 30% would be a good sign for Mario.
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CB8 score: 123
Incorrect picks: More than my signature will allow.

Mario's NEVER been untouchable. I don't know what gave people that idea, Mario/Samus 2005? It's like that match killed one thing (100% devotion to the x-stats) and replaced it with another (Mario is untouchable).
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

If Luigi breaks 30% on Link, I consider Mario > Mega Man a lock.
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From: red sox 777 | #027
The real reason we shouldn't expect any funny business is that Mario has never done it against anyone except for Samus. Every other character he's ever faced has not produced that effect, so why expect it to happen with Megaman? It still could, and Megaman has more reason to be susceptible to SFF than most, but if they really are close naturally, it'll be hard to turn on the SFF. If Mario's a fair amount stronger naturally, then it'll be easier for him to turn on the SFF boosters too, but that doesn't really affect Megaman's chances of winning, since he's lose in that scenario anyway.

Pretty much sums up how I feel...actually, Mario and Samus have met after that (in non 1v1 settings, admittedly) and the same FREAKING MARIO effect has never been reproduced. I think that was more 2k5 being Mario's super ridiculous on roids year than anything else.

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1. Didn't stop him in 2006 in the Battle Royale

That match was so crazy, Samus was just dominated by everything.

2. Link appeared to LFF MMX in their last match, unless there's some other reason I'm missing for X to do noticeably worse there

Maybe Nintendo fans knew Mario would be in trouble and voted for him rather than Link. Link did drop a lot against Zack.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 117/144 - Today's Winners: Mario and Mega Man

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #033
If Luigi breaks 30% on Link, I consider Mario > Mega Man a lock.

Why? Luigi has an amazing early vote and is likely to be helped a lot by it being a night match.

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Why? Luigi has an amazing early vote and is likely to be helped a lot by it being a night match.

How does this differ from MMX?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 117/144 - Today's Winners: Mario and Mega Man

From: red sox 777 | #027
The real reason we shouldn't expect any funny business is that Mario has never done it against anyone except for Samus. Every other character he's ever faced has not produced that effect, so why expect it to happen with Megaman? It still could, and Megaman has more reason to be susceptible to SFF than most, but if they really are close naturally, it'll be hard to turn on the SFF. If Mario's a fair amount stronger naturally, then it'll be easier for him to turn on the SFF boosters too, but that doesn't really affect Megaman's chances of winning, since he's lose in that scenario anyway.

Who else is "reasonably close" to Mario and would also be susceptible to any SFF? Samus, Mega Man, and Sonic are the only three, and Mario has only gotten a crack at one.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Heck, Alucard got 28.32% against Link in a night match. Luigi getting 30% just means he's resisting SFF, which wouldn't surprise me.

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From: PartOfYourWorld | #038
Who else is "reasonably close" to Mario and would also be susceptible to any SFF? Samus, Mega Man, and Sonic are the only three, and Mario has only gotten a crack at one.

http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/CAPPOD/MM025~Mega-Man-X7-X-Posters.jpg

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best sig bet EVER

(And yes I know there was LFF helping X but he still didn't fold whatsoever)

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Why? Luigi has an amazing early vote and is likely to be helped a lot by it being a night match.

Because Luigi should be SFFed way, way worse than MMX was. If Luigi getting SFFed much worse than MMX is only putting MMX 2% above Luigi, then there's no way the gap between MMX/MegaMan is big enough to make up to make up for the fact that Luigi safely beats every MM character other than the big cheese.
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Or...that Luigi is resisting SFF in a contest where voting against Link is trendy and cool?

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I'll be disappointed greatly if Luigi breaks 30%. Link got 81% on Yoshi in 2004; that would be an incredible decline in his SFF powers.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!!
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 4: Luigi

Most new games help a character, if anything.. it seems as if they hurt Link. Tp was meh imo, Link seemed to be on roids with TP hype though. Same for Zelda/Ganondorf.
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hmmmmmmmm

From: red sox 777 | #044
I'll be disappointed greatly if Luigi breaks 30%. Link got 81% on Yoshi in 2004; that would be an incredible decline in his SFF powers.

I imagine Luigi probably will be closer to 30% than 20% in that match, and Luigi being able to resist SFF effectively against Link says nothing about Mario/Mega Man. In a straight up match with no SFF, Luigi should be able to get closer to 30% on Link, honestly.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Bacondorf/night match is one reason that the match has still left people skeptical of Sonic. Woot if he is at 2k6 level or above.

See this is what boggles me. Night time is the worst time for Sonic, so I don't see how people can complain about it being a night match. If it had been a day match Sonic could have easily won with a higher percentage than he did. He's always been a day character and I don't see why that would suddenly change against Ganondorf.

Anyway all this Mega Man hype is just, once again, wishful thinking. Mario is going to steamroll Mega Man and be done with it. In fact, I already predict that in the final X-Stats Sonic will > Mega Man. It would be kind of cool if Sonic > Mario in the final x-stats, too.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

Night time is the worst time for Sonic

No, it's not. Night time is Euro time.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

See this is what boggles me. Night time is the worst time for Sonic, so I don't see how people can complain about it being a night match.

It's also the worst time for Zelda characters. Sonic does insanely well in Europe might I add. he rose 2% during that time.

If it had been a day match Sonic could have easily won with a higher percentage than he did. He's always been a day character and I don't see why that would suddenly change against Ganondorf.

Sonic does well in the afternoon, but not as good as nintendo characters usually. Ganondorf had 45.5% in the US, 46% in NA overall. You can't ignore that. It doesn't mean ganondorf would greatly improve his performance.. he wouldn't. I do think Sonic would have dropped a % perhaps. Why I think he'd have finished at 56% or so in a 24hr.

Anyway all this Mega Man hype is just, once again, wishful thinking. Mario is going to steamroll Mega Man and be done with it. In fact, I already predict that in the final X-Stats Sonic will > Mega Man. It would be kind of cool if Sonic > Mario in the final x-stats, too.

I agree Mario will beat MM easily, but MM has been doing well.. so these topics are inevitable. If Sonic performs well on Kirby, then it is possible Sonic > MM. For now, I think MM has been a bit more impressive.
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hmmmmmmmm

Who else is "reasonably close" to Mario and would also be susceptible to any SFF? Samus, Mega Man, and Sonic are the only three, and Mario has only gotten a crack at one.

Yo beat me to it. Mario 60-40'd Samus when the year before she looked like the statistical favorite...some of that can be blamed on Mario's super-boost in 2005, but not entirely. I don't think Mario would really SFF Sonic (I've argued against it happening in BGE1/2 enough that I think it probably applies here too), though maybe a little due to Sonic trying to join the Nintendo-family in recent years. Regardless, I'm okay grouping him in this trio.

Mega Man's the other one left, and I think -- between him, Sonic, and Samus -- their games are the most similar as far as playing them goes. Mega Man had his first nine games -- which includes MM2, MM3, and MMX -- on the NES and SNES...which compete with SMB1, SMB3, and SMW. If there's a character that competes with Mega Man for having the most games, it's Mario. He isn't Nintendo like Samus, but he's Nintendo enough to SFF Yoshi and be SFF'd by Link. The 3D-era stone-walled him, but I don't think switching to the PS1 to continue the series did him any favors either. His top games may be rereleased on the Virtual Console, but most of Mario's top games are on it too and are among the best-selling. MM9 and MM10 are getting Mega Man attention again in recent years, but not as much attention as NSMBW or SMG...and yeah, diss them for their weakness, but MM9/MM10 are much weaker....

...I don't think there will be a lot of SFF if any at all, but Mega Man has difficult x-factors against him and I would probably favor Big Boss over Zack in a match.


I feel like MM =/= MMX and the continuous LFF are enough of a question mark against MMX to make that example not count for the purpose of this discussion. It does make Mega Man look better, but unfairly so.
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